本帖最后由 xingjw 于 2019-8-18 20:57 编辑
1929 FORECAST:
Accordingto my discovery of the 60-year cycle, I figured that 1929 would repeat like1869, 1909, and 1919. Looking back 20 years, we find that top was reached inAugust, 1909, and 60 years before, top was reached in July, 1869. If you will read my Annual Forecast for 1929, you will see that I had figured the top must come not later than the end of August and stated that a "Black Friday" would come in September. Following strictly the 1869 top, the top would have come in July, 1929, and some stocks did make top at that time.
根据我对60年周期的发现, 我曾经指出1929年会像1869年,1909年,1919年那样重复。 回顾过去的20年, 我发现顶部于1909年8月到达;而在60年前,顶部于1869年7月份到达。 如果你读过我的1929年年度预测, 你将会看到,我已经指出了1929年的顶部一定不会晚于8月底出现,并指出了“黑色星期五”将会在9月份出现。 假如完全遵循1869年顶部的话, 顶部可能会出现在1929年的7月, 某些股票那时会形成顶部。
Following the 1909 top, we couldexpect top in August, and the actual high of the averages and many individualstocks was reached on September 3, 1929. Going back to 1919, we find that the Averages made firsttop in July and a big decline followed, but extreme high was made in the earlypart of November.
如果遵循1909年顶部的话,我们可以预测顶部出现在8月,平均指数和许多个股的实际高点将于1929年9月3日到达。 回溯1919年, 我们发现,道琼斯平均指数在7月形成了第一个顶部,然后大跌紧随其后,而极限的最高点形成于11月初。
From all of these tops – 1869, 1909, and 1919 – sharp declines followed in the fall of the year, just as they did in 1929. Therefore you see how easy it was to follow this great advance and determine when it would culminate. There is no other way, outside of using the 20 and 60-year cycle that we could have forecast this great bull campaign and its culmination so closely in 1929.
从所有这些顶部开始– 1869, 1909, and 1919– 急剧的下跌都在当年秋季随即而来,就像它们在1929年那样。 因此,你会明白追随大幅上涨并且确定它何时到达顶部是多么容易。 我们用20年和60年周期预测1929年这个伟大的牛市,并且如此接近它在1929年的顶部, 除此之外,没有其它任何办法。
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