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发表于 2010-10-11 20:44
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原帖由 uime 于 2010-10-11 11:40 发表 
和尚没听过这本书？和这个人？
拉里·威廉斯(Larry Williams)著名的交易员，曾获罗宾斯世界杯(Robbins Worid Cup)期货交易锦标赛的全时冠军，在不到12个月的时间里，将账户资金从1万美元经营到110万美元。他曾在全美期货委员会董事会任职，并两次当选蒙大拿州的议员。他的文章在《华尔街日报》、《福布斯》、《财富》等报刊杂志刊登，是过去25年中被引用最广、最受追捧的咨询专家。
听说过。对于怎么去交易的书，我一般都会有与下面那个人的评论相近的看法。
70 of 86 people found the following review helpful:
2.0 out of 5 stars Might as well flip a coin..., September 17, 2000
This review is from: Long-Term Secrets to Short-Term Trading (Hardcover)
This book is an excellent example of why non-statisticians should be prohibited from writing books on statistical subjects.With some computer program and a bunch of historical data on the futures markets, Williams is able to find dozens upon dozen of trading systems which *would have* produced spectacular results if they had been followed. A fool will no doubt believe that this is the real deal, but the law of averages guarantees that future results applying the same rules to the same markets will produce equally spectacular losses. Markets change. Duh.
More importantly, Williams breaks every law in the book regarding the design and testing of trading systems. He massively overfits his data to "profit spikes" and doesn't bother to forward-test any of his systems on data which they haven't yet seen. These alone are fatal flaws and guarantee the invalidity of the systems. A little knowledge is a dangerous thing... Even worse, the concept of statistical significance seems to be beyond Mr. Williams, who is even proud of his lack of mathematical ability. If enough systems are tested with enough data, one is bound to turn up cases where 80% or 90% of the trades would have been winners.
If all that wasn't a big enough disaster, this book is littered with typos and inconsistencies -- places where one thing is said in one paragraph and then another thing is said in another, or appears to be the actual case in a related diagram. This makes the actual rules being profferrd difficult to discern at times. These flaws are simply inexcusable in a book costing this much and pretending to be of a professional caliber. It's also aggravating that the technical terms (about two dozen of them) in the computer printouts with which the results of the numerous models are presented are never adequately explained. And Williams is inconsistent in his rules: at one point in the text he's advocating following the trend, at another point trading against the trend is the way to riches. On top of all that, one has to endure endless silly platitudes and the recounting of numerous trading war stories. Ugh. I couldn't get through it fast enough.
Given thousands of traders in the markets, it's a statistical certainty that a handful will be outrageously successful. That they think it was because of something they did, and then go and write basically worthless books about it, is little more than hubris. If Williams has done anything right which is quantifiable, it's my guess that it's the fact that he's used stops to prevent taking the big loss. This is hardly news. Save your money and hope that maybe the local library was dumb enough to buy this book. |
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发表于 2010-10-11 11:40
