一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Thursday, December 11, 2008Slow Action
The market continues to hold above support in the 2940-2950 area, but the Qs are also below daily VWAP. With mixed signals coming from various timeframes, it is not the time to be making aggressive bets, especially with the light volume.



Posted by Brian at 12/11/2008 02:07:00 PM





Better Action
is found in the individual stocks than the overall market for now. The market held above support and recovered from the early weakness but there is no compelling reason to be long the Qs yet. 3050 remains the most relevant resistance for now. If the market will rally, hte financials (XLF) will have to continue to hold above the rising 10 DMA near 12.35.



Posted by Brian at 12/11/2008 11:47:00 AM





Expectations
Unhappiness is best defined as the difference between our talents and our expectations.
~Edward De Bono

Posted by Brian at 12/11/2008 06:47:00 AM

Labels: quotes




Wednesday, December 10, 2008Daytrading
Nice piece on TIM SYKES I will be dong a class with Tim in NYC on Saturday February 21. Details will be coming soon.



Posted by Brian at 12/10/2008 08:16:00 PM





Stock Market Video Analysis 12/10/08




Posted by Brian at 12/10/2008 04:15:00 PM





Volatility
continues to be very high which favors short term trading. The important support remains near 29.40.



Posted by Brian at 12/10/2008 12:35:00 PM





Holding Up Well
A push past 30.30 could get this market going back to the upside. Semiconductors remain strong and there are 22 advancing stocks for every 7 declining.



Posted by Brian at 12/10/2008 11:19:00 AM





The Mind
The perfect man uses his mind as a mirror. It grasps nothing, it rejects nothing. It receives but does not keep.
~Chuang Tzu

Posted by Brian at 12/10/2008 06:42:00 AM

Labels: quotes




Tuesday, December 09, 2008Stock Market Video Trend Analysis 12/9/08




Posted by Brian at 12/09/2008 04:17:00 PM





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hefeiddd

Tuesday, December 09, 2008Defensive
The 61.8% retracement level is finding some selling and although the market remains above the daily VWAP, it makes sense to keep stops tight on long positions. The market has rallied more than 10% from the Friday lows, do not let profits slip away by being careless.



I uploaded the order book along with the stocks I traded this morning to the bonus tab of the book site. The username and password are on pg 184 remember to use lower case to login.



Posted by Brian at 12/09/2008 11:25:00 AM





Semiconductors Leading
the way higher today as the gap lower in SMH was quickly filled and that market made it past important resistance at 17.00. The Qs have recovered more than 61.8% of the move lower from the election and is now headed for a test of the 50 DMA near 31.02 (it is declining by about a dime a day). The 50 DMA is only a level where there is potential for resistance, it is not an impenetrable barrier. Do not argue the logic of why the market is rallying, instead focus on the trends that make you money and manage risk.

Posted by Brian at 12/09/2008 10:57:00 AM





Government
The character inherent in the American people has done all that has been accomplished; and it would have done somewhat more, if the government had not sometimes got in the way.
~Henry David Thoreau

Posted by Brian at 12/09/2008 06:54:00 AM

Labels: quotes




Monday, December 08, 2008Stock Market Trend Analysis 12/8/08




Posted by Brian at 12/08/2008 04:27:00 PM





Shakeout?
If the market can make it back up above the resistance at 30.10, the next levels to watch for on the upside are; 30.45 (daily R2), 30.70 (61.8% retracement of the election high to low) and above that, the declining 50 DMA is found near 31.15.



Posted by Brian at 12/08/2008 02:11:00 PM





Daily VWAP
The Qs failed at the daily VWAP and the next level of potential support lies near the prior resistance near 2935.



Posted by Brian at 12/08/2008 01:50:00 PM





Heavier Volume
seems to be coming on bouts of selling. The market continues to hold up but the primary trend remains lower and the volume gives us reason to be cautious.



Posted by Brian at 12/08/2008 11:47:00 AM





Strong Upward Momentum
Short term the market is extended, but that is not a reason to sell short. Buyers control the momentum and pullbacks are very brief, indicating there is still strong demand. This market could continue up towards the 61.8% retracement of the "election high" to the recent lows, that level is approximately 30.65. Above the Fib level is the declining 50 DMA near 31.20. If you are looking to sell short, you are early.



Posted by Brian at 12/08/2008 10:33:00 AM





Persistance
Nothing in the world can take the place of PERSISTENCE
Talent will not…nothing is more common than unsuccessful men with Talent
Genius will not….unrewarded genius is almost a proverb
Education alone will not…..the world is full of educated failures.
PERSISTENCE and DETERMINATION alone are OMNIPOTENT
~Calvin Coolidge

Posted by Brian at 12/08/2008 06:53:00 AM

Labels: quotes




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hefeiddd

5 Feet in 6 Days
is just too tempting to pass up. I would wish you luck in the markets tomorrow, but luck is for losers... trade with a plan and implement it with discipline.





Posted by Brian at 12/04/2008 08:41:00 PM





Stock Market Trend Analysis 12/4/08




Posted by Brian at 12/04/2008 04:17:00 PM





Could Get Much Worse
take this seriously



Posted by Brian at 12/04/2008 03:14:00 PM





Don't Tease The Bear


Posted by Brian at 12/04/2008 03:03:00 PM





Neckline
of an inv h&s on 1 minute timeframe is coincident with daily VWAP

**UPDATE** the pattern FAILED



Posted by Brian at 12/04/2008 02:36:00 PM





Uninspiring
Today's action is like watching GRASS GROW

There is some short term support being found at 5DMA/2 DVWAP, but don't let your guard down, the primary trend remains lower.



Posted by Brian at 12/04/2008 01:48:00 PM





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hefeiddd

Thursday, December 04, 2008Yesterday's High
Is a short term area of trouble for the Qs. Trading remains very choppy but the short term trend is higher.



Posted by Brian at 12/04/2008 10:57:00 AM





Secrets
The secret of health for both mind and body is not to mourn for the past, worry
about the future, or anticipate troubles but to live in the present moment wisely and
earnestly.
~Buddha

Posted by Brian at 12/04/2008 06:49:00 AM

Labels: quotes




Wednesday, December 03, 2008Final 30 MInutes
of the day have been very volatile. Here's how I traded it today.


Daytrade Final 30 Minutes of Day 12/3/08 from brian shannon on Vimeo.

Posted by Brian at 12/03/2008 04:48:00 PM

Labels: live trade video




Stock Market Video Trend Analysis 12/3/08


CONGRATULATIONS on the new house! I love the plasma idea.



Posted by Brian at 12/03/2008 04:17:00 PM





It Could Go Here
ASfter a shakeout of the shakeout of the failed move it could get going here....



Posted by Brian at 12/03/2008 02:45:00 PM





Shakeout or Worse?
This could be a shakeout, but no reason to be optimistic with the longer term downtrend still intact. The market remains very volatile.



Posted by Brian at 12/03/2008 01:28:00 PM





Important Support
The adavance/decline is solid 17:12 and if the market can hold up above 28.00 we could see a good afternoon rally.



Posted by Brian at 12/03/2008 12:27:00 PM





2 Bullish Scenarios
Here are two potential bullish scenarios involving movement around the 5DMA. I like the way the market acts.



Posted by Brian at 12/03/2008 10:48:00 AM





Bullish?
In last nights video I said there were "encouraging signs" such as the market recapturing the 2 day VWAP. I also pointed out the possibility that the markets have formed a higher low yesterday (which might be the basis of a right shoulder in an invereted h&s pattern) but a break below those levels could spell further trouble. We remain in a bear market, if I confused you by sounding bullish I apologize. To be clear, I expect that the bear market will need a lot of time to heal before any potential bullish scenario can hold for more than just a short term trade. The market remains GUILTY UNTIL PROVEN INNOCENT but if it rallies, I will be aboard with tight stops and reasonable share size. Risk management remains job #1, ALWAYS!


The arrow on the chart is where the Qs are currently trading ~2718


Posted by Brian at 12/03/2008 08:47:00 AM





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hefeiddd

Mixed Messages
The Qs are at the daily VWAP which is also coincident with the daily pivot. Be defensive.



Posted by Brian at 12/02/2008 01:57:00 PM





Quiet Bullish Consolidation
Qs are holding up well, they will need to get back above 2780 for another push higher to take hold.



Posted by Brian at 12/02/2008 11:50:00 AM





Impressive Early Action
The Qs need to recapture the 2 day VWAP (as the average long participant from yesterday and today will in a position of strength and shorts will be vulnerable) near 2755. The Advance/Decline ration is 22:6 which supports the case for continued strength, but things change very quickly in this market.



Posted by Brian at 12/02/2008 10:36:00 AM





MIstakes
The man that makes no mistakes does not usually make anything.
- Edward Phelps


Posted by Brian at 12/02/2008 06:47:00 AM

Labels: quotes




Monday, December 01, 2008Dilemma
Do I blow off the market tomorrow and take advantage of the recent dump or do I sit at my machine and take advantage of once in a lifetime volatility? I already know the answer...greed wins out this time. But if it keeps snowing like this I'm I will not trade five days this week.



Further research increases the odds of 4 days of trading this week.



Posted by Brian at 12/01/2008 09:10:00 PM





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hefeiddd

Important Level
The Qs are probing the important 27.40 level. It is too early to call the rally from last week failed, but with the longer term downtrend, making big directional bets here doesn't make sense. A move below 27.00 would be a reason for greater concern.



Posted by Brian at 12/01/2008 01:59:00 PM





POTENTIAL Support
The selling has been relentless this morning, at some point there will be support found (at least temporarily) and the 38.2% retracement level lines up with the 5DMA which makes ~2760 the first likely level of support before we get more directional clues. The market remains very treacherous.



Posted by Brian at 12/01/2008 10:27:00 AM





Worry
Ninety-eight percent of what I worried about never happened.
- Mark Twain

Posted by Brian at 12/01/2008 06:46:00 AM

Labels: quotes




Sunday, November 30, 2008Short Sale Ideas Video
This video is password protected and can be accessed by entering the last word on page 58 of MY BOOK in the password field. If you do not own the book, you should put it on your gift list.

Have you read the REVIEWS?

Or how about the one from Ed Dobson who said it was one of the TOP TEN TRADING BOOKS EVER WRITTEN


Short Sale Ideas 113008 from brian shannon on Vimeo.

Posted by Brian at 11/30/2008 09:52:00 PM





WIngsuit Flying


Posted by Brian at 11/30/2008 09:40:00 AM





Friday, November 28, 2008Stock Market Video Trend Analysis 11/28/08




Posted by Brian at 11/28/2008 01:23:00 PM





Quiet Choppy Trading
as the market digests recent gains above prior resistance at 2860.



Posted by Brian at 11/28/2008 10:42:00 AM





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hefeiddd

Wednesday, November 26, 2008Astronomical Fibonacci
Saturn Polar Region


Posted by Brian at 11/26/2008 11:40:00 PM





Stock Market Video Analysis 11/26/08




Happy Thanksgiving


Sky-event alert: Venus joins Jupiter after sunset
This Thanksgiving weekend, the sky's two brightest planets stand poised to pass each other in Venus at the end of November. The two planets lie just 2° apart after sunset on the 30th. Keep your eyes on the early evening sky for the next week, and you will witness the most dramatic planetary alignment of 2008. Read the rest of THIS STORY


.

Posted by Brian at 11/26/2008 04:22:00 PM





One Year Ago Today
I posted this video in which I said it "could be the beginning of a multi-year decline for the markets"





Posted by Brian at 11/26/2008 01:40:00 PM





Done
for the day. Not seeing any reason to continue to trade. Video after close.

Posted by Brian at 11/26/2008 01:37:00 PM





Neckline
The Qs are battling the neckline of the inverted H&S pattern on the 30 min timeframe. Market action remains strong, do not let your guard down.



Posted by Brian at 11/26/2008 11:35:00 AM





Building For A Breakout?


Posted by Brian at 11/26/2008 10:02:00 AM





Gratitude
Let us rise up and be thankful, for if we didn't learn a lot today, at least we learned a little, and if we didn't learn a little, at least we didn't get sick, and if we got sick, at least we didn't die; so, let us all be thankful.
~Buddha

Posted by Brian at 11/26/2008 06:57:00 AM

Labels: quotes




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hefeiddd

No Edge Here
Mixed signals make it tough to see which way the market will go short term. The Qs have traced out a H&S pattern which will be completed below 2750, but with the more important potential for support from 27-2730 make it low odds for a short. Sometimes cash is the best position.



Posted by Brian at 11/25/2008 01:23:00 PM





Pullback
The Qs will need to hold the 2730 level on a closing basis and the 3 day VWAP~2700 intraday if we are to have any confidence that the market can add to the recent gains. This pullback should be welcome as it will provide good long entries, but only if it holds. Wait for support to form and then momentum to build before lower risk purchases can be made.



Posted by Brian at 11/25/2008 11:17:00 AM

Labels: fibonace




Thinking
When the mind is thinking it is talking to itself.
~Plato

Posted by Brian at 11/25/2008 06:47:00 AM

Labels: quotes




Monday, November 24, 2008Stock Market Video Trend Analysis 11/24/08




Posted by Brian at 11/24/2008 04:23:00 PM





Pretty Close


Posted by Brian at 11/24/2008 04:00:00 PM

Labels: trend pattern




Consolidating
The longer the market holds above 27.50, the greater the likelihood of afternoon strength. If the Qs drop below 27.30 it will be time to become much more defensive.



Posted by Brian at 11/24/2008 01:28:00 PM





Live Market Analysis
at 12:15PM EASTERN
for about 15-20 minutes

HERE

If you have trouble getting in please do not email me, I am not an expert at using the site and I will not answer your email. Thanks

Posted by Brian at 11/24/2008 11:38:00 AM





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hefeiddd

No Edge Here
Mixed signals make it tough to see which way the market will go short term. The Qs have traced out a H&S pattern which will be completed below 2750, but with the more important potential for support from 27-2730 make it low odds for a short. Sometimes cash is the best position.



Posted by Brian at 11/25/2008 01:23:00 PM





Pullback
The Qs will need to hold the 2730 level on a closing basis and the 3 day VWAP~2700 intraday if we are to have any confidence that the market can add to the recent gains. This pullback should be welcome as it will provide good long entries, but only if it holds. Wait for support to form and then momentum to build before lower risk purchases can be made.



Posted by Brian at 11/25/2008 11:17:00 AM

Labels: fibonace




Thinking
When the mind is thinking it is talking to itself.
~Plato

Posted by Brian at 11/25/2008 06:47:00 AM

Labels: quotes




Monday, November 24, 2008Stock Market Video Trend Analysis 11/24/08




Posted by Brian at 11/24/2008 04:23:00 PM





Pretty Close


Posted by Brian at 11/24/2008 04:00:00 PM

Labels: trend pattern




Consolidating
The longer the market holds above 27.50, the greater the likelihood of afternoon strength. If the Qs drop below 27.30 it will be time to become much more defensive.



Posted by Brian at 11/24/2008 01:28:00 PM





Live Market Analysis
at 12:15PM EASTERN
for about 15-20 minutes

HERE

If you have trouble getting in please do not email me, I am not an expert at using the site and I will not answer your email. Thanks

Posted by Brian at 11/24/2008 11:38:00 AM





Newer Posts Older Posts Home

hefeiddd

No Edge Here
Mixed signals make it tough to see which way the market will go short term. The Qs have traced out a H&S pattern which will be completed below 2750, but with the more important potential for support from 27-2730 make it low odds for a short. Sometimes cash is the best position.



Posted by Brian at 11/25/2008 01:23:00 PM





Pullback
The Qs will need to hold the 2730 level on a closing basis and the 3 day VWAP~2700 intraday if we are to have any confidence that the market can add to the recent gains. This pullback should be welcome as it will provide good long entries, but only if it holds. Wait for support to form and then momentum to build before lower risk purchases can be made.



Posted by Brian at 11/25/2008 11:17:00 AM

Labels: fibonace




Pretty Close



Posted by Brian at 11/24/2008 04:00:00 PM

Labels: trend pattern




Consolidating
The longer the market holds above 27.50, the greater the likelihood of afternoon strength. If the Qs drop below 27.30 it will be time to become much more defensive.



Posted by Brian at 11/24/2008 01:28:00 PM










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hefeiddd

Monday, November 24, 2008Pause?


Posted by Brian at 11/24/2008 10:50:00 AM





Trend Day?
Impressive strength If the Qs can push past 2750-2760 and hold there we could be in for a trend day higher. Advance/Decline 24:5



TREND DAY



Posted by Brian at 11/24/2008 10:06:00 AM





Important Level QQQQ
The Qs are trading right up to the location of prior support and the declining 5DMA. Be careful not to chase prices until we have a better idea of whether the strength can hold and turn into a more sustainable move. The pre-market high is 27.48.



Posted by Brian at 11/24/2008 09:13:00 AM





Banking
I sincerely believe that banking establishments are more dangerous than standing armies, and that the principles of spending money to be paid by posterity, under the name of funding, is but swindling futurity on a large scale.
~Thomas Jefferson

Posted by Brian at 11/24/2008 06:53:00 AM

Labels: quotes




Sunday, November 23, 2008Traders Market
If this chart doesn't make that point clear, nothing will.






Posted by Brian at 11/23/2008 09:27:00 AM

Labels: historical charts




Friday, November 21, 2008Stock Market Video Trend Analysis 11/21/08





Posted by Brian at 11/21/2008 04:24:00 PM





Still Choppy
We remain in a downtrend. It seems like it wants to turn higher, Citigroup has recaptured VWAP and if that stock can hold above 4.00 it may inspire broader confidence. Burden of proof remains on buyers.



Posted by Brian at 11/21/2008 12:16:00 PM





Washout and Bounce?
Not yet. I have been looking for it and it has been choppy action so farm the only reason I am not down is because of risk management. There remains no evidence of a turn higher. For some reason I have a mental block about being short here so I will sit with my twelve dollar profit and watch the continued destruction.



Posted by Brian at 11/21/2008 10:49:00 AM





Success
To laugh often and much;
To win the respect of intelligent people and the affection of children;
To earn the appreciation of honest critics and endure the betrayal of false friends;
To appreciate beauty, to find the best in others;
To leave the world a bit better, whether by a healthy child, a garden patch or a redeemed social condition;
To know even one life has breathed easier because you have lived.
This is to have succeeded.
~Bessie Stanley

Posted by Brian at 11/21/2008 05:51:00 AM

Labels: quotes




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hefeiddd

Thursday, November 20, 2008Interesting
but not a reason to buy

LONG TERM DOW JONES



Posted by Brian at 11/20/2008 04:30:00 PM





Stock Market Video Trend Analysis 11/20/08

I changed the symbol to QQ because they have been cut in half by the market YTD.



Posted by Brian at 11/20/2008 04:12:00 PM





Guilty til Proven Innocent
The 5 DMA is still declining.
The Qs, SPY, IWM remain below support from earlier in the week.
We need price (not a news reporter, government worker or anything else)to tell us when the market has made a turn and the market has not sent us that message yet. 2750 will be important this afternoon if the market makes another attempt to rally.



Posted by Brian at 11/20/2008 02:09:00 PM





Good Action
If the market can push past 2750 and hold above that level we could be in for a strong rally this afternoon, perhaps up to the declining 5DMA near 2840 or higher? The first priority is always to manage risk. As I mentioned on twitter, I purchased the Nov 27 Q calls @.57 It is still early and there is no need to chase prices just below prior support.



Posted by Brian at 11/20/2008 12:34:00 PM





Pause
The market is holding above VWAP but the larger trend has not changed. I am sidelined for now.



The trades I was narrating on twitter are below.



Posted by Brian at 11/20/2008 11:31:00 AM

Labels: trades




Bullish 1 Minute Chart
i do not have time to explain how to use twitter, it is easy to figure out
my username is alphatrends



Posted by Brian at 11/20/2008 10:52:00 AM





Updates
on twitter.com during day

follower username alphatrends

Posted by Brian at 11/20/2008 10:06:00 AM





11 Year S&P Lows?
The 2002 low in the SPY was 77.07 If that level is breached, the market will be trading at levels not seen since March 1997. Is there anyone who still thinks buy and hold is a valid strategy?




Was this the ultimate CONTRARIAN INDICATOR?


.

Posted by Brian at 11/20/2008 09:01:00 AM





Money & Happiness
Happiness is not in the mere possession of money; it lies in the joy of achievement, in the thrill of creative effort.
~Franklin D. Roosevelt

Posted by Brian at 11/20/2008 05:50:00 AM

Labels: quotes




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hefeiddd

Declining 5DMAs
are impenetrable so far. It is still very early in the day and there is no technical reason to be long right now. The Qs and SPY are below the daily VWAP and below the declining 5DMA.



Posted by Brian at 11/19/2008 10:38:00 AM





It Is Early
but the action is encouraging so far. We still have a declining 5DMA which means the rally attempt has to be treated with caution (tight stops and reasonable share size) but if it can recapture and stay above the 5DMA, the market could get going nicely. I am cautiously long.



Posted by Brian at 11/19/2008 10:13:00 AM





Disorder
One of the advantages of being disorderly is that one is constantly making exciting discoveries.
~A.A. Milne

Posted by Brian at 11/19/2008 05:49:00 AM

Labels: quotes




Tuesday, November 18, 2008Stock Market Video Trend Analysis 11/18/08




Posted by Brian at 11/18/2008 04:16:00 PM





C'Mon
C is moving higher, will it spur the push past VWAP in broad markets?

I am only referring to a daytrade



Posted by Brian at 11/18/2008 03:40:00 PM





Volume
Is missing for this attempted turn. I am looking for a reason to get long for a quick trade but time is running out for today, the volume is not convincing and the market remains below the daily VWAP



Posted by Brian at 11/18/2008 03:16:00 PM





Semiconductor Stocks 10 Year Lows
I usually look at the SMH (the semiconductor ETF) but they began trading in 2000 and are now at an all time low.

The Philadelphia Semciconductor Index (SOX) is closing in on the 1998 low of 182.59. The low of 1998 was made in October of that year which means the SOX is at a 10 year low right now. If the October 1998 low is taken out, the group will be at lows not seen since October of 1996...12 years ago!



Posted by Brian at 11/18/2008 01:56:00 PM





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hefeiddd

Tuesday, November 18, 2008Downtrend Intact
The Financials are at new lows and it seems inevitable that the Qs will follow.



Posted by Brian at 11/18/2008 01:32:00 PM





Choppy Action
that was present all day yesterday has continued into today's trading. The market is holding onto slight gains, but the action is uninspiring.




Posted by Brian at 11/18/2008 11:52:00 AM





Change
When we are no longer able to change a situation, we are challenged to change ourselves.
~ Viktor Frankl

Posted by Brian at 11/18/2008 06:47:00 AM

Labels: quotes




Monday, November 17, 2008Stock Market Trend Analysis 1/17/08





Posted by Brian at 11/17/2008 04:21:00 PM





Mixed Messages
The Qs breifly went positive and have been holding above the daily VWAP for most of the day, but the 5DMA is still declining which makes it tough to trust any rally attempts for more than just quick scalp trades.



Posted by Brian at 11/17/2008 01:55:00 PM





Still Bearish
Not much reason on the charts to be optimistic.



Posted by Brian at 11/17/2008 10:14:00 AM







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hefeiddd

2 Day VWAP & 50% Retracement
The Qs have dropped down to the 2 day VWAP on volume which is significantly less than it rallied on. The market is also just above the 50% retracement of the Low to High from yesterday. This is only a level of POTENTIAL support, not a level to buy. When markets reach a potential level of support the correct action is to switch to shorter timeframes to look for evidence that buyers are taking back control.



Posted by Brian at 11/14/2008 12:18:00 PM





Bear Market Rallies
should ALWAYS be viewed with an eye of suspicion. We may pull back to the 2 day VWAP near 29.



Posted by Brian at 11/14/2008 10:09:00 AM






5 DMA
The Qs have rallied up above the trendline and are now battling the 5DMA. Daily R2 is just above at approx 30.20 You never know if the market has really turned, but if long your job is easy, manage risk!



Posted by Brian at 11/13/2008 03:47:00 PM





From Failed Moves
come fast moves. Headed for the 5DMA? Raise stops, protect profits. Looking to reload longs on pb to 2day VWAP



Posted by Brian at 11/13/2008 02:31:00 PM





Impressive Bounce
for now we have to treat it as a bounce within the downtrend. If long (I am) raise your stops as the market dictates.

Right now the markets are finding resistance at the 2 DAY VWAP (not shown)



Posted by Brian at 11/13/2008 02:11:00 PM





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hefeiddd

Thursday, November 13, 2008Sellers Remain In Control
of the trends on all timeframes. It seems inevitable that we trade down below the October 24 lows, but always be prepared for anything.



Posted by Brian at 11/13/2008 11:18:00 AM





Brevity
Good things, when short, are twice as good.
~Gracian

Posted by Brian at 11/13/2008 06:42:00 AM

Labels: quotes




Wednesday, November 12, 2008Stock Market Video Trend Analysis 11/12/08




Posted by Brian at 11/12/2008 04:15:00 PM





New Lows
in the XLF, Citigroup is under $10.00 Will we see an afternoon flush and a test of lows in the Qs? Sure feels like it.



Posted by Brian at 11/12/2008 01:19:00 PM





Slow Bleed Lower
The slow bleed lower continues, I see nothing to be bullish about.



Posted by Brian at 11/12/2008 11:36:00 AM





Knockout Punch
Will we see it today>


Anatomy Of A One Punch Knockout - Watch more free videos

Posted by Brian at 11/12/2008 08:57:00 AM





Bull or Bear?
There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side.
~Jesse Livermore

Posted by Brian at 11/12/2008 06:41:00 AM

Labels: quotes




Tuesday, November 11, 2008Stock Market Video Trend Analysis 11/11/08




Posted by Brian at 11/11/2008 04:12:00 PM





From Failed Moves....
did the market trap yet another group of longs who will be spitting them out in the last 30 minutes?



Posted by Brian at 11/11/2008 03:33:00 PM





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hefeiddd

Tuesday, November 11, 2008Any Chance
of a recovery taking hold will need the Qs to hold above the VWAP ~3010 It remains very volatile, be quick.



Posted by Brian at 11/11/2008 02:54:00 PM





Better
Maybe a run to the 5DMA?



Posted by Brian at 11/11/2008 02:28:00 PM





Nothing To Get Excited About
The Qs jumped back above daily VWAP with some volume, but with prior support just above and a declining 5DMA, there is no reason to get long for more than quick scalp trades.



Posted by Brian at 11/11/2008 02:05:00 PM





Short Term Support
has been broken and the market remains in a very dangerous situation. The path of least resistance continues to be lower, no reason to be a buyer until we see evidence of some upward momentum.



Posted by Brian at 11/11/2008 10:16:00 AM





Market Predictions
Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge.
~Lau-Tzu

Posted by Brian at 11/11/2008 06:38:00 AM

Labels: quotes




Monday, November 10, 2008Video Stock Market Trend Analysis 11/10/08

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Posted by Brian at 11/10/2008 04:15:00 PM





Things Could Get
real ugly, particularly if the low from last week fails to hold up. Be careful.



Posted by Brian at 11/10/2008 11:57:00 AM





Direction
The early battle seems to be sellers at the daily VWAP and support above the resistance from Friday. It is impressive that the market can hold up (for how long?) with the weakness in stocks like GM, GOOG, GS, etc. The declining 5DMAis also reason to think further upside may be limited. No clear direction so far.




Posted by Brian at 11/10/2008 10:40:00 AM





Premarket Trading
has seen the Qs up to 32.47 which is just below the prior support at 3250. The market initially made it above the declining 5DMA, but is now back below it (price is currently 32.00). Let price action guide your decisions not your emotional response to headlines.


That ugly little bar drawn in on the chart is my crude bar for premarket trading today.

Posted by Brian at 11/10/2008 09:14:00 AM





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hefeiddd

RECORD WAVE


Posted by Brian at 11/07/2008 04:19:00 PM




Trying To Stabilize
The Qs are attempting to stabilize above the 61.8% retracement level. Short term resistance is at 31.20 (the level the market had trouble with yesterday afternoon). With a 5 DMA still declining, a strong defense remains key.



Posted by Brian at 11/07/2008 10:11:00 AM





Perserverance
Most people give up just when they're about to achieve success. They quit at the one-yard line.
~H. Ross Perot

Posted by Brian at 11/07/2008 06:31:00 AM

Labels: quotes




Thursday, November 06, 2008Stock Market Video Trend Analysis 11/6/08




Posted by Brian at 11/06/2008 04:19:00 PM





Daily VWAP
is being tested, but the lack of volume is not convincing me that there is enough interest to push it above short term resistance at 31.20



Posted by Brian at 11/06/2008 02:44:00 PM





Fibonacci and Prior Resistance
may help to slow the selling in the Qs. We saw the rally halted at the 38.2% retracement on Tuesday, now we will look for evidence of a slowdown in selling and increased buying at 61.8% of the move from 10/24 lows to 11/4 highs. This is not an area to buy, just a potential level of support.




Posted by Brian at 11/06/2008 01:50:00 PM





No Bounce
The QQQQ remains below the declining daily VWAP and in an intermediate term downtrend (declining 5DMA). The inability for a rally to develop increases the odds of a further breakdown today.



Posted by Brian at 11/06/2008 12:07:00 PM





Inspiration
You can't wait for inspiration, you have to go after it with a club.
~Jack London

Posted by Brian at 11/06/2008 06:09:00 AM

Labels: quotes




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hefeiddd

S2 Acted
as support just above the 32.50 level of prior support (for now). The uptrend line has been broken and the Qs are also back below the 5DMA. The intermediate term trend is becoming more neutral and the danger is that it will fail to recapture 33.25 (or so) and we will see a pattern of lower highs and lower lows re-emerge to confirm the longer term downtrend. Be defensive.



Posted by Brian at 11/05/2008 12:52:00 PM





IPO to Grave In Just 94 Days
Has there ever been a worse IPO?



Posted by Brian at 11/05/2008 11:41:00 AM

Labels: IPO




Test the 5DMA
The Qs appear headed for a test of the rising 5DMA. That level has added significance as it is also where the recent uptrend line is met. More important support is found near 32.50.



Posted by Brian at 11/05/2008 10:58:00 AM







If The World Could Vote
This is site has a live Global Vote for US President with some interesting data points.

The market rally continues as fresh money chases prices higher, the Qs are coming up to a 38.2% retracement which has the POTENTIAL to become a place where new buyers slow down and profit taking occurs (the process of forming resistance). Trend is clearly still higher on the shorter term timeframes.



Posted by Brian at 11/04/2008 11:45:00 AM

Labels: fibonacci




Stem Sells
As I mentioned last Thursday... buy the rumor, sell the news. The stem cell stocks have had a huge short term rally over the last four days (green arrow shows where they were when I mentioned the possibility of an election play) and the higher open today was sold into. There does not appear to be any reason for TRADERS to continue to be involved long until these gains have been digested. I believe the longer term outlook for these stocks is very bullish, but I am happy to have cashed in my shares and will look for new opportunities to get involved after this rally has been absorbed. These stocks will be good ones to trade on the long side over the next couple of years, particularly around key votes for previously vetoed initiatives for federal funding for embryonic stem cell research.



Posted by Brian at 11/04/2008 10:26:00 AM

Labels: stem cells




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hefeiddd

Feeling Frothy
There are a lot of big percentage moves in broken stocks (stem cells included). It seems like people have let their guard down again and are chasing "junk stocks" higher. When we see this type of activity it is often late in a move. Do not be like the herd, RAISE your respect for risk in this environment and listen only to price.



Posted by Brian at 11/03/2008 10:43:00 AM





Stem Cells
If you purchased any of the stem cell stocks I mentioned as election plays
LAST THURSDAY I would recommend lightening up a bit into this strength.



These stocks were also great election play when I mentioned them 2 YEARS AGO

Posted by Brian at 11/03/2008 09:42:00 AM









From Failed Moves
often come fast moves in the opposite direction. Be very careful here.



Posted by Brian at 10/31/2008 02:21:00 PM





Healthy Consolidation?
While the Qs battle with reistance near 33.00, the market has held the gains for the week very well and a pattern of higher lows (on the 10 minute timeframe) has emerged. The primary trend remains lower and the daily timeframe is still a wreck which is why you cannot let your guard down by only considering a break past 33 scenario. This will probably be my only post until the video after the close.



Posted by Brian at 10/31/2008 12:49:00 PM





Bank Robbery
It is easier to rob by setting up a bank than by holding up a bank clerk.
~Bertolt Brecht



Posted by Brian at 10/31/2008 06:04:00 AM

Labels: quotes




Thursday, October 30, 2008Stock Market Video Trend Analysis 10/30/08

If you are a trader, you do not want your name on THIS LIST


BTW, I am considering putting all intraday updates in the bonus section of the book site next week, which means you will need the username and password in the book to access.



Posted by Brian at 10/30/2008 04:24:00 PM





Again?
Be careful



Posted by Brian at 10/30/2008 03:15:00 PM





Back Near Highs
Although I don't think the market has digested gains long enough, we have to be prepared for the possibility that the market may continue higher without further consolidation, leaving the unprepared participants in a position to chase much later. As we have seen lately, the final hour can bring anything and things can happen very quickly.



Posted by Brian at 10/30/2008 02:53:00 PM





1 Minute Inverted H&S
2347 advancing stocks
667 declining stocks

The market holds up well and it just broke back above daily VWAP and the neckline of an inverted H&S pattern. Let's see if the VWAP/neckline acts as support.




.

Posted by Brian at 10/30/2008 01:12:00 PM






Labels: stem cells


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