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- 2006-7-3
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楼主 |
发表于 2009-4-10 12:53
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Oct 7, 2007 11:42am
| |  Proving validity of Leading Diagonal Triangle / Wedge
let us jump into the 15 minute TF.
you will see that in the attached chart, we have what seems a valid and qualified internal subwaves of this leading diagonal .
next to prove is that wave 55 on attached chart for the end of wave 35 must have a valid 5 wave impulse wave. which it seems to be exhibiting in the 2nd chart.
Attached Thumbnails 
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#757
 Oct 7, 2007 12:47pm
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Assuming that wave 35 is valid and that wave 3 navajo white has ended,
We can only further confirm this once price breaches or falls below the lower side of the wedge. When that happens, I would be looking at the 38.2% retracement of this wave 3 navajo white for the wave 4 navajo white.
like I said earlier, wave 4 retraces wave 3 from 23.6 to 50%. and commonly it retraces 38.2%
Now, notice where 38.2% retracement falls and compare that to the estimated Price based on the wedge theory...
The attached chart would show that they both fall in almost the same area.
Should we call this mere coincidence?
Anyway, based on EWT, wave 4 is allowed to retrace up to the end of wave 1 at 234.22 though this exceeds the suggested limit of 50%.
Attached Thumbnails
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Oct 7, 2007 1:01pm Reason: fixed chart labels
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#758
Oct 7, 2007 1:09pm
| | Potential scenarios for this week
1. Throwever of price outside the wedge above it upperside going for the FE 161.8 @ 239.46. 38.2% retraces falls at 235.74
2. Price has seen its wave 35 end at 238.84, then 38.2% retracement is at 235.36.
But like I said, this is just the ideal coincidence. And based on EWT, price for wave 4 is allowed to retrace till end of wave 1 at 234.22
The 38.2% retracement and that wave 4 limitation may be translated as strong support levels.
If price goes lower than 234.22, then my EW Count is invalid.
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Oct 7, 2007 8:25pm Reason: typo
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#759
Oct 7, 2007 1:27pm
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If wave 4 plays out as expected and making my EW count valid, then price should continue to climb again for the wave 5 navajo white.
Sights are set for the FE 261.8 - 300.0 of the Red FIB Extention Tool at 245.48 - 247.48
Incidentally, this range also falls in the same area as the 61.8% - 78.6% ratracement of the Big Wave A to attain Big Wave B.
Another coincidence?
Please not that on the chart, another thing to watch out for is the estimated time at which price will meet the estimated price target of the Bullish wedge retracement. where a vertical line is drawn from the intersection of the extended support and resistance trendlines that formed the wedge and see where that vertical line intersected the trendline formed by extending the line using points 1 and 4 of the price bounce inside the wedge. And here it is estimated to be attained at 2007.10.15.20:00 GMT +6.
Attached Thumbnails
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#760
Oct 7, 2007 1:42pm
| | Jamming Area for the FIBS
Zooming out and looking atthe 4 hour chart again.....
we canb see that a number of projections using the FIB Extention tool have their estimated price levels almost in the same area as the others.
Let us take this 1 by 1.
1. Big Wave B yellow is seen as a 3 wave B were if C=A ( Aqua ABC ) then C is equal to FE 100.0 @ 244.39
2. Wave 5 navajo white is estimated to be in the range of FE 261.8 - 300.0 (Magenta FIB Extention Tool) 245.48 - 247.78
3. Incidentally, based on a guideline, Big Wave B is expected to retrace Big Wave A by 61.8 to 78.6% and 78.6% is at 244.27 Golden FIB retracement Levels on the right side of the chart.
ALL boxed in Yellow
Multiple coincidences?
Attached Thumbnails
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#761
Oct 7, 2007 2:15pm
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Attached to this post are Charts which I present to show an ideal classic potential scenario for the GBPJPY Pair probably forecastiong what to expect till next year.
First shows A Potential Harmonic Pattern applied to the EW and Fib based chart.
I am making probably too many assumptions here. But as I said before.... this is justa potential scenario for this pair.
various validating factors need to be monitored to determine if this is still a potential turnout for this pair as time goes by.
2nd chart would show labels for EW and also for the Potential Harmonic Pattern which I think would fall in the classification of a Bearish Butterfly.
Attached Thumbnails 
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#762
Oct 7, 2007 2:44pm
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After you analyze the last 2 charts above, you will probably or definitely notice that my wave C yellow is too short for your taste... 
First let me answer your question "WHY?"
..... A thought crossed my mind to see a possible relationship between EW and Harmonic Patterns.
Although wave 4 has not fully evolved yet, based on the projections I made.... Big wave B would fall on the 78.6% retracement of Wave A.
Based on that, I checked the Guide line for harmonic Patterns that would possibly allow a "B" which makes a 78.6% retracement of the XA Leg.
And I came up with 2.
First is the Bearish Butterfly
Second is the Bullish AB=CD
I will expound on this later. need to get some sleep out here.
EG
PS. Time Element on the chart has no valid precision yet. I was just toying on the possibilities. I am still working on how I can include Time into my analysis
Attached Thumbnails
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Oct 7, 2007 7:07pm
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#763
Oct 7, 2007 7:57pm
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In my earlier posts before Post # 750, I thought there was just 1 Harmonic/Gartley Pattern that would fit teh Potential structure of the EW Count I thought I was seeing and will see in GBPJPY.
While doing this step by step presentation, I realized that there was another Pattern that would fit in.
That is why now we have
Bearish Butterfly in combination with the Running Flat corrective wave for the Wave 4
And a 2nd pattern which is the Bullish AB=CD
The Bearish Butterfly is projected to unfold when
1st Price based on EWT should reach FE 261.8 ( 245.48 Red Fib Extention Tool ) of wave 012 inside wave wave c of the Big wave B Up
2nd this also coincides with the 78.6% retracement of the Big Wave A (244.27). and
3rd This will give us a 78.6% retracement (244.27) of the XA leg 251.07 - 219.31 ) for Point B in the Harmonic Pattern
To "make it fit" into this pattern and still find it valid, price then needs to retrace down only by 38.2% toward 234.74 for its Big Wave C down. This is still valid as a complete corrective wave and classified as a Running flat corrective wave even if it does not go down lower than 219.31 which is the end of Big Wave A. This can happen when the main Trend which is Bullish is too strong and thus leads price to move up again.
If this turns out to be the case, Wave 5 Of the Wave C in the monthly Chart will thus begin and unfold to possibly complete the CD leg of this potential Bearish Butterfly and also complete the wave 5 inside the Wave C in the monthly chart. This will be valid only if price projection reaches 1.27 retracement up of the XA leg for the end of Point D. which could take weeks or months.
Note that in the chart ( please excuse it for looking a bit messy. I had to put in most of the tools to have less charts and see most if not all tools and projections in just 1 chart for easy viewing )Bearish Butterfly point D projection ( 127% retrace of XA leg falls on 259.85) and a valid AB=CD also falls in that area at 259.70. In addition, wave C end in the monthly chart is projected to be in the same vicinity if C=A in the monthly @ 259.93
This Bearish Butterfly Pattern is seen as the 2 Blue triangles on my Chart
EG
PS. Note that if Price goes beyond the limits that have been set using the Bearish Butterfly Pattern, Then these Projections and Forecast becomes invalid.
Attached Thumbnails
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#764
Oct 7, 2007 8:19pm
| | Alternative Wave 4 Yellow Structure
As an alternative structure to what I have presented above, it is also possible "to fit or expect to fit Price to another Harmonic Pattern " as it unfolds its EW Count too.
And that is the Bullish AB=CD
where we see price
1. still reach 78.6% (244.27) retracement for the Big Wave B
2. internal structure of Big Wave B project its end at FE 100.0 at 245.48 C=A
3. then see a possible fall to 212.51 which is FE 100.0 of the C=A of a Zigzag corrective wave 4. ( which incidentally is a requirement for the Bullish AB=CD)
4. Note that it also coincides with the 127% percent ( Magenta Fib Retracement ) Projection for the retracement of the AB leg of the Bullish AB=CD Pattern and this lands @ 212.57 which is just 6 pips off the mark.
See the 1st blue triangle and match it with the Pale Green Triangle
EG
Attached Thumbnails
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#765
Oct 7, 2007 8:54pm
| | Diagonal Triangle Theory on this 4 hour chart is invalid now???
Quote:
Originally Posted by el grande 
Now that we are in wave c which is divided into 5 waves as an impulse wave,
This is where I have to options of labelling me EW Counts on this Pair.
First I use the FIB extention tool to project wave 3 and wave 5 when I can see that a POSSIBLE count for wave 1 and wave 2 is present.
Option 1 ______
First sign is where I positioned the Magenta FIB Extention tool.
This means that wave one started at 229.20 which is also the end of the triangle sub wave b and the wave 1 is at 234.22 and wave 2 is at 229.72
Option 2 ______
Second potential count iswave 1 still at 234.22 while wave 2 is at 233.67
I will select Option 1 because I came across a literature and I can not remember where.... but it states that sub wave 1 of wave 3 must go beyond end of higher degree wave 1. This is only satisfied by Option 1 in Magenta.
As a guideline then I will set my target for sub wave 3 at the FE 161.8 of this drawn FIB Extention tool Magenta. And this is at 239.19.
Referring to the chart again, you will see that we are very near this price level on the GBPJPY.
Let us dissect the wave 3 further on this 4 hour chart.
We know that wave 3 ( 33 here ) must never be the shortest. Seeing what seems a 5 wave structure already finished, let us check if the previous rule has been violated.
Again we use the fib extention tool on each impusle wave.
we see wave 33 is a little less than 100% of wave 31 ( Pale Green FIB Extention Tool. This means that wave 33 is shorter than wave 31. therefore, wave 35 must be shorter than wave 33 to adhere to the rule.
Let us measure or compare the current length of wave 35 to wave 33 using the BLUE FIB Extention tool. Here we see that wave 35 is just about 80% of wave 33.
With this , it means that wave 33 is not the shortest comparing to wave 31 and possible wave 35.
wave 31, 32 and 33 seem to have already exhibited the complete characteristics of their wave nature and completetd the sub wave counts.
This leaves us to confirm the remaining wave 35
PS. the chart below supercedes the previous EW Count I made and posted as a revision prior to this specially where I label wave 2 in the sub wave c.
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Diagonal Triangle / Wedge Theory for what I thought was the 5th wave inside wave 3 could now be invalid because price still went up higher than 238.84 to 239.20.
Or is this the throwover to the upside? But checking the price structure, it may still be valid with the revised count on the attached chart. Giving a clearer 5 wave structure for the sub wave C inside that zigzag wave 5 inside the leading diagonal triangle.
EG
My mind
Attached Thumbnails
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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ehehe..
Still have two EW cable counts... 
