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发表于 2009-4-10 14:52
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Oct 26, 2007 3:25pm
| |  USD-JPY
Quote:
Originally Posted by el grande 
Glad to see you posting your counts again money. keep them coming. 
I have a question re your chart. I am missing something on your wave B Black on the lower right corner of your chart.
Your wave 2 is lower than your wave 1 origin. If you think usdjpy in your chart is on an uptrend, then wave 2 must not go lower than wave 1 red origin.
EG
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Hello EG,
tnx for helping me on Elliot Wave, couse i know that together we know a lot more. You said that there is somethnig missing on wave B-black. Maybe you thought that are missing 1,2,3,4,5, that i writte down in new picture. I also changed my pattern a-b-c (i change it, couse trend line was not broken) from wave 5 in B-black, to the wave 1 of the Big wave 2. And now the small wave 2 from 2 is not lower,than B-black if you thought this.
new picture,----------------------------------tnx again
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#872
 Oct 26, 2007 5:36pm
| |  El
Unless you are showing as that you expect price to reach that 100% level in relation to a Hi-Lo Range you base it on.
Yes u r right I expect market to move inaccordance to wave 1 fibos & most of time its good to aim our target
shivaji
__________________
"Trade for sake of trading & not for winning or Lossing"
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#873
Oct 28, 2007 9:40pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by money
Hello EG,
tnx for helping me on Elliot Wave, couse i know that together we know a lot more. You said that there is somethnig missing on wave B-black. Maybe you thought that are missing 1,2,3,4,5, that i writte down in new picture. I also changed my pattern a-b-c (i change it, couse trend line was not broken) from wave 5 in B-black, to the wave 1 of the Big wave 2. And now the small wave 2 from 2 is not lower,than B-black if you thought this.
new picture,----------------------------------tnx again
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Hey money.
When I said I was missing, I actually meant I could not understand or I felt it did not fit into the rules so Maybe I was wrong or I was missing or not seeing something you were seeing and that is why you labelled it that way.
Sorry for getting you confused with my english.
But to go back to that B wave of yours,
This is only assumming that your current count direction is correct..... (coz my mind has somehow blocked off making counts for other pairs as detailed as I do on the gbpjpy (which I assume that my count could still be full of mistakes )
a B wave is a corrective wave so it is normally in a 3 wave subdivision. 12345 labels are for impulse or motive waves that follow 3 basic rules ( wave 2 does not go beyond wave 1 origin, wave 3 is never the shortest among waves 1 3 and 5. and lastly that wave 4 does not go beyond wave 1 end or into the wave 2 price territory.)
So your wave B must be divided into 3 waves only not 5.
A corrective wave that is subdivided into 5 waves needs to be a triangle:
Diagonal (A) 53535
Diagonal (C) 33333
Symmetrical - Contracting (B)
Symmetrical - Expanding (B)
I hope this helps.
EG
PS.
Offhand, your 12345 inside your black wave A could be right. but you should put the end of your magenta zigzag on your wave 5 end and not on your red 2 of your "B" Black.
then you could probably have a small "a" red instead of the small 3 red, then a small b red instead of a small 4 red. and your small 5 red change to small c red. For your Black Wave B.
On the other hand your 12345 could also be correct but this could be the smal " A" wave instead of that "B" Black wave on your chart.
as you can see , your x is lower than your current smal wave 5 red. So we can not make your current black wave B stand or be valid as a Wave B end. Otherwise the beginning of your wave c will not be valid.
So I propose that your current Black B wave to be changed to Wave "A" followed by zigzag abc for your new Wave B black. then yur "x" as the wave 1 in your wave c down.
If it gets more confusing for you , please disregard....
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Oct 28, 2007 10:29pm
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#874
Oct 29, 2007 1:09am
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Hi EG,
I have been working hard to learn EW counts. I just finished my first read through the "Elliott Wave Principle" by Frost & Prechter, and now I'm applying what I know so far. Getting the counts right for extended waves, etc. is rather tricky.
As the joke goes, if you put 12 EW traders in a room, you'll get 13 possible EW counts... No doubt there is some subjectivity to it, but the closest true count would be one that meets the most rules.
I've put a lot of thought into the last 4 years of GJ and would appreciate any feedback. Have I followed the rules? Is my scenario plausible? I say were in a big C-wave down now, which usually subdivides into a 5-count wave. My 1st target is 213.50, 2nd less likely target is as low as ~206. Yes, those are big falls from here, but considering the big challenges facing the USD and subprime mess, I believe it could happen.
Since UJ usually closely follows GJ, I suspect I will find somewhat similar EW counts but I haven't tackled that yet.
I did a previous count for GU which suggested it may have peaked in July and now it's ready for a big move down, but I did that before I read the book. If GU is about to go down, that adds weight to GJ falling also.
Please comment... and thanks in advance.
Pips4life
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Oct 29, 2007 6:51am
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pips4life....
let me continue with me reply to your query earlier..
"I've put a lot of thought into the last 4 years of GJ and would appreciate any feedback. Have I followed the rules? Is my scenario plausible? I say were in a big C-wave down now, which usually subdivides into a 5-count wave. My 1st target is 213.50, 2nd less likely target is as low as ~206. Yes, those are big falls from here, but considering the big challenges facing the USD and subprime mess, I believe it could happen.
***You could probably be right while I could be wrong about this. Your current wave 5 up which is the 251.07 high on my chart is just my wave 3.
I will explain further below after this post."
I think it is important that you check your wave counts of higher time frame than what you were just looking at. I am assuming that your wave count was only up to the daily. ( please correct me if I am wrong )
The fact that your wave count shows that you already have a wave 5 on your chart ( which I assume is a daily chart ) then you follow it up with an ABC wave, then that means you still expect the price to go higher than the previous 251.07..... This would bring you to considering the whole 5 wave move from Sept 2000 @ 148.19 low to July 2007 @ 251.07 to be just the first sub wave of a bigger wave 3.
But if you look at the monthly chart below, I have labelled my chart as to how I see the EW Count is on the monthly chart. You will see that I consider price now as being a part of an unfinished flat corrective wave.
Why do I think we are in a flat corrective wave? It is because I consider the wave 2 you see in the chart as a sharp zigzag. And by the rule of alternation, wave 4 must be a complex sideways corrective wave.... thus the flat corrective wave expectation for this wave 4.
Moving further, since I consider this as a flat corrective wave, then by looking at the chart again, we can see that it is possible that we have already finished the wave A and the Wave B and that price now is basically trying to complete the Wave C in the monthly chart.
Then I go to the guideline I have compiled where C is said to be related to A by the following Percentages: 61.8%, 100%, and 161.8%
So far, we will note that price has already gone higher than the 61.8% FE Level.
Now we have to check if this wave C up has completed 5 waves. We also have to note size proportion of the waves.
Here is where I am struggling to find the correct wave count on the GBPJPY.
EG
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__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Oct 29, 2007 11:27pm Reason: spelling edit
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#880
Oct 29, 2007 8:00am
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Here is an option for the weekly Count.
Still trying to fit the waves into the rules.
EG
Attached Thumbnails  
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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