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楼主 |
发表于 2009-4-11 15:55
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Mar 5, 2008 8:11pm
| |  GBPJPY
Quote:
Originally Posted by pipchaser 
my daily pivot is at 204.81 and my targets are Fibo levels:
205.84 23.6
207.30 38.2
208.49 50
I will closely watch for reversal patterns in those areas.
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Looking good for you pipchaser....
Yesterday before I left, I had placed 2 small equal Long trades @ 205.18
However, I placed a Stop Loss on 1 (@204.60 ) which was a 38.2% retrace from the previous day's high while I let the other one loose with out an SL.
When I came back around US session, I saw the SL triggered while the other was in profit. I exited the one with profit without further analyzing it for Net loss of 40 pips on those 2 trades. I did not have much energy left to stay up and watch my trades after a long drive around the city for nearly 6 hours.
Now, it looks like we were actually on the correct direction.
The labels on the chart should be self explanatory aside from the notes. However, if you have questions..... just ask.
EG
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__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#2049
 Mar 5, 2008 8:54pm
| | GBPJPY
GBPJPY m30 details
sorry ... this did not go thru earlier.
EG
Attached Thumbnails
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#2050
Mar 5, 2008 11:21pm
| | G/J daily
Hi el,
I took a look on daily charts for geppy and I think that it just completed W1, now we are in W2 but I have no clue about what kind of correction can be. I'm waiting for first wave of W2 retracement to have an opinion. What do you think?
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Mar 6, 2008 1:33am
| | GBPJPY
Thanks pipcatcher for bringing this up. I do not mean to shoot down your thoughts on this. However, I will just provide some points I thought you might want to consider (which I considered before I set aside the same count you just made.
1. if you look at the 1st chart on the series above this post, you will notice also that the stochastics I had on the chart somehow formed a triangle.
2. Aside from that, I noticed that the legs of that potential triangle were smaller than the one to their left. This would have been 2nd pt to qualify it as a triangle
However, there was also an alternative count. I looked around for a possible reason to sdispute the triangle. And the only one I found was the form of this triangle. It would look more like a Barrier triangle with the inverted side.
from what I can deduce with the barrier triangle format, the breakout usually occurs on the flat side and not the slanted side. This can not be a symmetrical triangle for me as it has one side less angled to the apex than the other.
Next is I looked at the Time Component. Measuring how much time was consumed for wave 2 compared to this proposed wave 4. I remembed somebody telling me before that w4 is normally equal to wave 2 interms of time. I have not come across this in the books yet as far as I can remember.
If I place wave 4 where you placed yours, then w4 would have taken longer than wave 2. But it could be a reason to match the wave breakdown with your MACD. I can still be wrong with my count.
Next I checked was the technical indicators.
If price is indeed in wave 2 now, then this would have to climb towards
61.8 208.26
78.6 209.56
88.0 219.29
But Monthly Pivot is @ 208.67
Weekly Pivot @ 208.58
If price goes higher than this substantially, then Price will already have reversed and this cannot be wave 2 then. (Just my thought)
Based on the Previous day's Range and FIB Breakout, I would consider price going higher than the monthly and weekly Pivot towards Maximum of 209.34 which is Daily R2 and near the 61.8% FIB Breakout.
But this is even a bit contradictory to the usual retracement done by wave 4 which should be from 38.2 - 50% of wave 3. So I would be inclined towards 208.26 which is 61.8% of wave 3
If this is really wave 4 and it retraces more than 61.8%, based on the Guideline, next to watch is potential wave 5 failure (Truncated)
Your asking me this has made me go over that time guideline for wave 4. Based on a higher timeframe, wave 4 must end around 030908 (magenta vertical line on the chart). but the internal structure for the c4 is nearly complete.
Now, I am inclined to watcch this as a potential complex sideways expansion as the WXYXxZ instead of the ABC or WXY due to this time factor.
So these are the thoughts that I base my trading decisions on.
Price going up to finish c5 then down for Xx towards 206.25 to 205.40 and bouncing from there to finish Z of w534 till 030908.
This is just laying a map for this price. But this can still change. What I do is set this up then monitor and see if price does work as was planned.
In the event that Price movement deviates, then a new map is drawn whenever possible.
EG
Attached Thumbnails   
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Mar 6, 2008 3:48am
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I'm a novice in EW and my learning is easier with your thread. Thank you.
Infraction overload??
