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发表于 2009-4-19 09:55
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Introduction
In the FOREX forecast, 2006 it was supposed that the trend against the dollar may keep forming at least till the second half of October 2006. In article Possible scenarios of USD strengthening (EWA of CHF, EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD) and Monthly Wave Analysis, October, 2006 it was specified that trend may reverse in favor of the dollar above the key pulse point around the 20th of October 2006.
It is possible that currently final price movement against the dollar has begun. Though completion of correction construction, which has been forming since the mid of May, is not confirmed yet.
Note
- Once the opposite to the trend edge (base line or trend line) is tested any impulse or zigzag of any size may be considered to be completed. The inner wave counting of such a movement is of conventional character.
- The error of the trend reversal points defining with the help of impulse method is about +/- 1..4 time units. Date on the weekly chart is the last day of the current week.
- Often support and resistance levels, mentioned in the reports, are remote from the current price. In this case confirming or denying signals may be delayed. That is why in addition to the critical levels analysis inner structure analysis of the waves, moving in the same direction, should be used.
- It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show the probable price movements. This report is subject to change and reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release.
- Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides.
- Survey wave counting, alternate variants and possible schematic price movements are given in:
1. USD/CHF
For CHF survey wave counting refer to Monthly-1006 and article Possible scenarios of USD strengthening (EWA of CHF, EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD). Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft for this currency on 480 min chart.
Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
Forming of final wave [z] of supposed triple three pattern X is supposed to be completed.
In the mid-term perspective downtrend is expected to continue, completion of wave X is supposed to be confirmed. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 2.
Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart.
First waves of downtrend (wave Z), which may assume the shape of the impulse or diagonal triangle, are supposed to be forming.
In the short-term plan confirmation of correction X completion is expected. Waves of Z and [ii] of Z are supposed to keep forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
2. EUR/USD
For EUR survey wave counting refer to Monthly-1006, Monthly Wave Analysis, September, 2006, Possible scenarios of USD strengthening (EWA of CHF, EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD). Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
Forming of final wave [e] of supposed horizontal triangle X is supposed to be completed.
In the mid-term perspective uptrend is expected to continue, completion of triangle X is supposed to be confirmed. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 4.
Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart.
First waves of uptrend (wave Z), which may assume the shape of the impulse or diagonal triangle, are supposed to be forming.
In the short-term plan confirmation of triangle X completion is expected. Waves of Z and [ii] of Z are supposed to keep forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
3. GBP/USD
For survey wave counting of this currency refer to Monthly-1006, Daily-070906 and Possible scenarios of USD strengthening (EWA of CHF, EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD). Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
Forming of final wave (e) of supposed horizontal triangle is supposed to be completed.
In the mid-term perspective uptrend is expected to continue, completion of triangle is supposed to be confirmed. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 6.
Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart.
First waves of uptrend (wave [c] of Y), which may assume the shape of the impulse or diagonal triangle, are supposed to be forming.
In the short-term plan confirmation of triangle completion is expected. Waves (i) of [c] of Y and (ii) of [c] of Y are supposed to keep forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
4. USD/JPY
For survey wave counting of this currency refer to Monthly-1006, Possible scenarios of USD strengthening (EWA of CHF, EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD). Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
Wave construction with the formula 3-3-3-3-3, which may be either a triple zigzag in the extended flat 2 (refer to Figure 7 above) or a diagonal triangle of the final leg of zigzag X, is supposed to be almost completed (refer to Figure 5 in Monthly-1006).
In the mid-term perspective wave completion is expected to be confirmed. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 8.
Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart.
First waves of downtrend (wave [c] of 2), which may assume the shape of the impulse or diagonal triangle, are supposed to be forming.
In the short-term plan confirmation of correction completion is expected. Waves (i) of [c] of 2 and (ii) of [c] of 2 are supposed to keep forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
Reference
October 3, 2006 The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
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