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一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 08:39 | 显示全部楼层
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The article about possible and interrelated price movement of 10 currency pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, CHF/JPY, EUR/CHF, EUR/GBP, GBP/CHF, will be released in the next few days.

Introduction
The expected local correction of the European currencies in favor of the dollar may last until the second half of April 2008 and be rather intricate.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

A lasting correction [iv] is forming, but it is premature to speak of its shape. Its first wave (a) of [iv] might be assuming a zigzag shape.
The second leg c of (a) of the supposed zigzag (a) of [iv] may be comparable by length with its first leg (perhaps in terms of Fibonacci coefficient).

Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.

The supposed correction b of (a) has reached the 62% mark which is an optimal value for a retracement, but so far there is no confirmation of its completion. The wave structure doesn’t rule out that a double zigzag with a triangle in the form of wave-link [X] of b and approximately equal legs [W] и [Y] of b is forming.
If this is the case price decline should be expected in the near term.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

Wave [iv] of a big downward impulse may continue forming while wave (b) of [iv] may be assuming the shape of a zigzag.

Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.

The second leg c of (b) of zigzag (b) of [iv] may be completing.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

For the last month practically horizontal but ambiguous knot has formed allowing different interpretations. If price fixes above the confirmatory level it will be the confirmation of the accepted scenario. Probably it will happen only after correction (ii)? forms.

Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.

Upward wedge (i)? may be forming.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

A lasting correction [iv] is forming, but it is premature to speak of its shape. Its first wave (a) of [iv] may be assuming a zigzag shape.
The second leg c of (a) of the supposed zigzag (a) of [iv] may be comparable by length with its first wave (perhaps in terms of Fibonacci coefficient).

Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.

The supposed correction b of (a) has reached the 62% mark which is an optimal value for a retracement, but so far there is no confirmation of its completion. The wave structure doesn’t rule out that a double three with a triangle in the form of wave-link (B) of [Y] of b is forming.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
February 21, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 08:40 | 显示全部楼层
Preview
The article about possible and interrelated price movement of 10 currency pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, CHF/JPY, EUR/CHF, EUR/GBP, GBP/CHF, will be released in the next few days.

Introduction
The expected local correction of the European currencies in favor of the dollar may last until the second half of April 2008 and be rather complicated.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

A lasting correction [iv] is forming, but it is premature to speak of its shape. Its first wave (a) of [iv] might be assuming a zigzag shape.
The second leg c of (a) of the supposed zigzag (a) of [iv] may be comparable by length with its first leg (perhaps in terms of Fibonacci coefficient).
The supposed correction b of (a) has reached the 78% mark — the maximum value for a retracement, but so far there is no confirmation of its completion.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 2 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

Wave [iv] of a big downward impulse may continue forming. Wave (b) of [iv] of this impulse has assumed the shape of a zigzag.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

For the last month practically horizontal but ambiguous knot has formed allowing different interpretations. If price fixes above the confirmatory level it will be the confirmation of the accepted scenario. Probably it will happen only after correction (ii)? forms.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 4 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

A lasting correction [iv] is forming, but it is premature to speak of its shape. Its first wave (a) of [iv] may be assuming a zigzag shape.
The second leg c of (a) of the supposed zigzag (a) of [iv] may be comparable by length with its first wave (perhaps in terms of Fibonacci coefficient).
The supposed correction b of (a) has reached the 62% mark — an optimal value for a retracement but so far there is no confirmation of its completion.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
February 22, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 08:41 | 显示全部楼层
Preview
The article System of equations with an endless number of solutions , which describes possible and interrelated price movement of the following 10 currency pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, CHF/JPY, EUR/CHF, EUR/GBP, GBP/CHF is released.

Introduction
The expected local correction of the European currencies in favor of the dollar may last until the second half of April 2008 and be rather intricate.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

A lasting correction [iv] is forming, but it is premature to speak of its shape. Its first wave (a) of [iv] might be assuming a zigzag shape.
The second leg c of (a) of the supposed zigzag (a) of [iv] may be comparable by length with its first leg (perhaps in terms of Fibonacci coefficient).
The supposed correction b of (a) has reached the 78% mark — the maximum value for a retracement, but so far there is no confirmation of its completion.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.

Revising periodically variants of counting I try to simplify them In this case I managed to simplify the counting of wave b of (a) to a simple zigzag with approximately equal legs. If the supposition is true the confirmation of its completion should be expected in the near term.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

Wave [iv] of a big downward impulse may continue forming. Wave (b) of [iv] of this impulse has assumed the shape of a zigzag.

Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.

Supposedly an upward wave (c) of [iv] is forming which may be an impulse or a diagonal triangle or a three.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

For the last month practically horizontal but ambiguous knot has formed allowing different interpretations. If price fixes above the confirmatory level it will be the confirmation of the accepted scenario.

Figure 6. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 1-2.

But scenario 1-2, considered earlier and confirmed by calculations given in the article System of equations with an endless number of solutions , doesn’t rule out further forming of a downward diagonal triangle C.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

A lasting correction [iv] is forming, but it is premature to speak of its shape. Its first wave (a) of [iv] may be assuming a zigzag shape.
The second leg c of (a) of the supposed zigzag (a) of [iv] may be comparable by length with its first wave (perhaps in terms of Fibonacci coefficient).
The supposed correction b of (a) has reached the 62% mark — an optimal value for a retracement but so far there is no confirmation of its completion.

Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.

Wave b of (a) itself may have assumed the shape of a double zigzag. If this is the case a confirmation of its completion should be expected in the near term.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
System of equations with an endless number of solutions
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
February 25, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 08:42 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
The expected local correction of the European currencies in favor of the dollar may last until the second half of April 2008 and be rather intricate.
At the moment the wave picture in the currency pairs under consideration looks contradictive confirming once again that we are in the corrective phase of the market.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

A lasting correction [iv] is forming, but it is premature to speak of its shape. Its first wave (a) of [iv] might be assuming a zigzag shape.
The second leg c of (a) of the supposed zigzag (a) of [iv] may be comparable by length with its first leg (perhaps in terms of Fibonacci coefficient).
The supposed correction b of (a) has reached the 78% mark — the maximum value for a retracement, but so far there is no confirmation of its completion.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.

Upward zigzag b of (a) may be completing. If this is the case a confirmation of its completion should be expected in the near term.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

Wave [iv] of a gig downward impulse may continue forming. Wave (b) of [iv] of this impulse has assumed the shape of a zigzag.

Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.

Supposedly upward wave (c) of [iv], which can be an impulse a diagonal triangle or a three, is forming. After the supposed correction b of (c) is completed the upward trend should be expected to continue.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

For the last month practically horizontal but ambiguous knot has formed allowing different interpretations. If price fixes above the confirmatory level it will be the confirmation of the accepted scenario.

Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.

So far the wave structure of the last knot corresponds to an upward wedge. If this is the case after its completion a retracement of wave (ii) to the 107 level should be expected.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

A lasting correction [iv] is forming, but it is premature to speak of its shape. Its first wave (a) of [iv] may be assuming a zigzag shape.
The second leg c of (a) of the supposed zigzag (a) of [iv] may be comparable by length with its first wave (perhaps in terms of Fibonacci coefficient).
The supposed correction b of (a) has reached the 62% mark — an optimal value for a retracement but so far there is no confirmation of its completion.

Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.

Wave b of (a) itself may have assumed the shape of a double zigzag. If this is the case a confirmation of its completion should be expected in the near term.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
System of equations with an endless number of solutions
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
February 26, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 08:42 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
The strengthening of the European currencies against the dollar hasn’t changed the long-term and mid-term expectations but implies some updating of the current wave counting. Possible variants will be considered in detail in the March monthly forecast.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 1.

Practically horizontal wave structure that has been forming since the end of the last year is running slightly against the dollar and leaves room for several acceptable variants of counting.
Taking into consideration that price managed to build up the last supposed upward zigzag to an impulse (refer to the Figure below), it isn’t ruled out that at the moment impulse [iii] of C completes forming. If this is the case the expected correction (wave [iv]) will continue sideways price movement until the second half of April.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

Wave (iv) of [iii] may have assumed the shape of a double three and at the moment impulse (v) of [iii] may be completing.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

Supposedly wave [iv] of a big downward impulse continues forming. At the moment it has assumed the shape of a double three and probably it is close to its completion. At the same time it may continue forming and assume the form of an extended horizontal correction. Anyway the expected price movement after the completion of zigzag (c) of [iv] — is downward.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 4 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

For the last month practically horizontal but ambiguous knot has formed allowing different interpretations. If price fixes above the confirmatory level it will be the confirmation of the accepted scenario.

Figure 5. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 1.

At the same time the unwillingness of price to move upward doesn’t allow so far to speak of the completion of diagonal triangle C of (B) with confidence. One of the possible alternate variants is given in the Figure.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 6 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 6. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

A lasting correction [iv] is forming but it is premature to speak of its shape. It isn’t ruled out that it will be an extended horizontal correction that will last until the second half of April.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
System of equations with an endless number of solutions
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
February 27, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 08:43 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
The strengthening of the European currencies against the dollar hasn’t changed the long-term and mid-term expectations but implies some updating of the current wave counting. Possible variants will be considered in detail in the March monthly forecast.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

Supposedly at the moment impulse [iii] of C completes forming. If this is the case the expected correction (wave [iv]) will continue sideways price movement until the second half of April.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 60 min chart. Variant 1.

This is one of the possible variants of counting of the ending waves of impulse (v). Supposedly for its completion only ending wave (5) of [5] of v of (v) is needed.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

It isn’t ruled out that corrective wave [iv] of a big downward impulse is completed. At the moment it has assumed the shape of a double three. At the same time it may continue forming and assume the shape of an extended horizontal correction. Anyway the nearest expected price movement is downward.

Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.

This is one of the possible variants of counting of zigzag (c) of [iv]. Supposedly zigzag (c) of [iv] is completed.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1a.

Fears about further forming of a downward diagonal triangle may be confirmed. If this is the case ideally price must fall below the 104.96 mark [the ending of wave (a)]. But this may not happen as reduced constructions in the Forex market are not rare.

Figure 6. Wave counting on 60 min chart. Variant 1a.

This is one of the possible variants of counting of the ending impulse (c) of [v]. Supposedly for its completion only the ending wave v of (c) of [v] is needed.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

A lasting correction [iv] is forming but it is premature to speak of its shape so far. It isn’t ruled out that it will be an extended horizontal correction which will last until the second half of April.

Figure 8. Wave counting on 60 min chart. Variant 1.

One of the possible variants of counting of the ending waves of impulse [C] of b. Supposedly for ots completion only the ending wave [v] of 5 of (5) of [C] of b is needed.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
System of equations with an endless number of solutions
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
February 28, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 08:44 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
The strengthening of the European currencies against the dollar hasn’t changed the long-term and mid-term expectations but implies some updating of the current wave counting. Possible variants will be considered in detail in the March monthly forecast.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the daily chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 1.

Supposedly at the moment impulse [iii] of C completes forming. Its wave (v) of [iii] is approximately equal by length to wave (i) of [iii]. If this is the case the expected correction (wave [iv]) will continue sideways price movement until the second half of April.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

The current variant of counting supposes that wave v of (v) of [iii] is completing in the form of an extension.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 60 min chart. Variant 1.

One of the possible variants of counting of waves of impulse (v) suggests that it is completed. But so far there is no confirmation and that’s why the ending surge of price isn’t ruled out.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 4 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

Corrective wave [iv] of a big downward impulse may be completed. At the moment it has assumed the shape of a double three (w)-(x)-(y). At the same time it may continue forming and assume the shape of an extended horizontal correction. Anyway the nearest expected price movement is downward.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.

One of the possible variants of counting of zigzag (y) of [iv] supposes that it is completed. We only have to wait for a confirmation.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 6 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 6. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1a.

The last price decline was supposed and considered in advance in Daily-150208 and in the article Possible trade with an excellent profit/risk correlation
The 103.91 mark remains the critical level for this variant of a big diagonal triangle -[ii]-[iii]-[iv]-[v]. The accepted scenario will be changed if the price declines below this level.

Figure 7. Wave counting on 60 min chart. Variant 1a.

One of the possible variants of counting of the ending impulse (c) of [v] doesn’t rule out its completion in the near term.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 8 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 8. Wave counting on the daily chart. Alternate variant .

Without cancelling the variant of counting considered yesterday (refer to Daily-280208), I would like to draw your attention to the fact that price decline of such kind fits well into the alternate variant with the extension of wave (v) of [iii], considered a month ago (refer to Monthly-0208).
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
System of equations with an endless number of solutions
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
February 29, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 08:44 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
The last dollar decline was considered in detail in the article USD. A pause or the end of a black streak? which was released yesterday.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

Upward impulse [v] may be completing. Several ending waves are needed for its completion.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 2 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

It is quite probable that transforming the ending upward zigzag into impulse (c) of [iv], the supposed wave [iv] is assuming the shape of a wave flat.
3 USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

The updated variant of counting doesn’t rule out that diagonal triangle -[ii]-[iii]-[iv]-[v] is close to its completion.
The price decline below the critical level will lead to asymmetric distortion of the global triangle (refer to the article USD. A pause or the end of the black streak?).
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 4 for the alternate wave counting of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

Downward impulse [v] may be completing and for its completion several ending waves are needed.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
March 3, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 08:48 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
The last dollar's decline was considered in detail in the article USD. A pause or the end of a black streak?.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

Upward impulse [v] may be completing. Several ending waves are needed for its completion.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.

It isn’t ruled out that wave (iv) will assume the shape of a zigzag following guideline of alternation.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

It is quite probable that transforming the ending upward zigzag into impulse (c) of [iv], the supposed wave [iv] is assuming the shape of a wave flat.

Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.

If this is the case several ending waves are needed for the completion of impulse (c) of [iv].
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

The updated variant of counting doesn’t rule out that diagonal triangle -[ii]-[iii]-[iv]-[v] is close to its completion.
The price decline below the critical level will lead to asymmetric distortion of the global triangle (refer to the article USD. A pause or the end of the black streak?).

Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.

One of the possible variants doesn’t rule out that only several ending waves are needed for the completion of impulse (c) of [v].
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 4 for the alternate wave counting of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

Downward impulse [v] may be completing and for its completion several ending waves are needed.

Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.

If this is the case the completion of impulse [v] should be expected in the near term.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
March 4, 2008
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 08:49 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
The last dollar’s decline was considered in detail in the article USD. A pause or the end of a black streak? which was released yesterday.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

Upward impulse [v] may be completing. Several ending waves are needed for its completion.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.

It isn’t ruled out that wave (iv) will assume the shape of a zigzag following guideline of alternation.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

It is quite probable that transforming the ending upward zigzag into impulse (c) of [iv], the supposed wave [iv] is assuming the shape of a wave flat.

Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.

If this is the case only several ending waves are needed for the completion of impulse (c) of [iv] while horizontal triangle iv of (c) which completes forming is a good opportunity to open short term long positions.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

It isn’t rules out that diagonal triangle -[ii]-[iii]-[iv]-[v] of C is completed.
The price decline below the critical level will lead to a distortion of the geometry of the global triangle (refer to the article USD. A pause or the end of a black streak?).

Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

One of the possible variants supposes that impulse (c) of [v] is completed.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 7 for the alternate wave counting of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

Supposedly downward impulse [v] is completing and for its completion only a pair of ending waves are needed.

Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.

If this is the case the completion of impulse [v] should be expected.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
March 5, 2008
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 08:50 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
Another phase of the dollar's decline is coming to an end (refer to the article USD. A pause or the end of the black streak?).
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

Supposedly upward impulse [v] is completing. We only have to wait for the confirmation.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.

For the completion of wave [v], supposedly the ending spurt of price is needed.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

The supposed wave [iv] is assuming the shape of wave flat.

Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.

For the completion of impulse (c) of [iv] the ending spurt of price is needed.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Diagonal triangle -[ii]-[iii]-[iv]-[v] of C may be completed.
If price falls below the critical level the geometry of the global triangle will be distorted (refer to the article USD. A pause or the end of a black streak?).

Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

One of the possible variants of counting supposes that impulse (c) of [v] is completed.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 7 for the alternate wave counting of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

Supposedly downward impulse [v] is completing. We only have to wait for the confirmation.

Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.

For the completion of wave [v], supposedly the ending plunge of price is needed.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
March 6, 2008
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 08:51 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
1) For the traders who opened long positions in the British pound in accordance with my trading recommendations (refer to Daily-050308) it is high time to think of their closing with a profit of more than 200 pips.
2) Another phase of the dollar's decline is coming to an end (refer to the article USD. A pause or the end of a black streak?).
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

Supposedly upward impulse [v] is completing. We only have to wait for the confirmation.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.

Supposedly only several ending touches are needed for the completion of wave [v]. In case of extension in the third wave (iii) of impulse [v] approximate equality of waves (i) and (v) of [v] should be expected (refer to Figure 4-26 of my book).
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

The supposed wave [iv] is assuming the shape of a wave flat.

Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.

Supposedly only several ending touches are needed for the completion of wave [v] . As waves i and iii in impulse (c) of [iv] are approximately equal one should expect approximate equality of waves (i) and (v) of [v] or an extension in wave v of (c) of [iv] (refer to Figure 4-26 of my book).
For the traders who opened long positions in accordance with my trading recommendations (refer to Daily-050308) it is high time to think of their closing with a profit of more than 200 pips.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 120 min chart.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

The last price decline in impulsive mode [wave (v)] has built the supposed zigzag up to an impulse. In this case two main variants of counting on the bigger time frames are possible (refer to Figures below and the article USD. A pause or the end of the black streak?).

Figure 6. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 1.

Variant 1 supposes further development of the downward wave C in the shape of a diagonal triangle. In this case the supposed wave [iv] of C must develop in a corrective mode and may reach the area of the 110..112 marks without breaking the critical level.

Figure 7. Wave counting on the daily chart.

In the second case downward zigzag A-B-C completes forming (refer to the article USD. A pause or the end of the black streak?).
The wave structure of the second leg of the zigzag in this case allows to interpret it as a sweeping impulse. An insignificant overlap of the supposed waves and [iv] of C permissible in the marginal markets isn’t seen at all in the line chart of the weekly time frame (refer to the Figure below and section 5.1.1 of my book).

Figure 8. Wave counting on the weekly chart.

In the line chart of the weekly time frame there is no overlap of waves and [iv] of C. Consequently this wave structure may be classified as the supposed impulse.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 9 for the alternate wave counting of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 9. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

Supposedly downward impulse [v] is completing. We only have to wait for the confirmation.

Figure 10. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.

Supposedly only several ending touches are needed for the completion of wave [v] . In case of the extension in the third wave (iii) of impulse [v] approximate equality of waves (i) and (v) of [v] should be expected (refer to Figure 4-26 of my book).
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
March 7, 2008
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 08:51 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
Another phase of the dollar's decline is coming to an end (refer to the article USD. A pause or the end of a black streak?).
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

The completion of upward impulse [v] isn’t ruled out. We only have to wait for the confirmation of it.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 2 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

Relative sizes of the supposed wave flat that has been forming since the middle of January don’t rule out that wave B of a large downward zigzag A-B-C is completing. We only have to wait for the confirmation of it.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the daily chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on the daily chart.

Last Friday the price broke through the critical level 101.67 and at once returned back. Let’s consider what consequences this may have for the further price movement.

Figure 4. Monthly chart of USD/JPY.

Strictly speaking the geometry of a multimonth horizontal triangle is distorted as the price declined 27 pips below the previous ending of the main wave of the supposed triangle (though if constitutes only ~0.5% of the length of the first wave). At t he best case this triangle can be represented in the form of a triple three without changing the accepted scenarios. At the worst all the scenarios with this triangle should be reconsidered.
But the fact of a short-term breach of the critical level hasn’t changed the core of the last multimonth wave structure. It remains an extended horizontal correction regardless of how it is marked (A)-(B)-(C)-(D)-(E) or (W)-(X)-(Y)-(X)-(Z) (refer to Tables 3-1 and 3-2 of my book).
At the same time scenarios v.1 and v.1a prove to be open to question and are relegated to the background (refer to the article USD. A pause or the end of a black streak?).
While variants v.1m and v.2 remains valid so far (refer to the article USD. A pause or the end of a black streak?).
Besides taking into consideration unfavorable economic indicators for the dollar scenario v.3 gain weight [refer to The review of the bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)].
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 5 for the alternate wave counting of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

The completion of downward impulse [v] isn’t ruled out. We only have to wait for the confirmation of it.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
March 10, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 08:52 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
Supposedly another phase of the dollar's decline is coming to an end (refer to the article USD. A pause or the end of a black streak?).
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

The completion of upward impulse [v] isn’t ruled out. We only have to wait for the confirmation of it.
If further price movement develops in a corrective mode an alternate variant is possible (it is plotted at the top of the chart).
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 2 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

Relative sizes of the supposed wave flat that has been forming since the middle of January don’t rule out that wave B of a large downward zigzag A-B-C is completed. We only have to wait for the confirmation of it.
If price movement develops in a corrective mode an alternate variant is possible (it is plotted at the top of the chart).
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

The completion of downward impulse [v] isn’t ruled out. We only have to wait for the confirmation of it.
If price movement develops in a corrective mode an alternate variant is possible (it is plotted at the top of the chart).
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 4 for the alternate wave counting of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

The completion of downward impulse [v] isn’t ruled out. We only have to wait for the confirmation of it.
<P class=“clear If further price movement develops in a corrective mode an alternate variant possible (it is plotted at top of the chart).Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
March 11, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 08:53 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
At the moment the wave picture in the main currency pairs remains uncertain.
On the one hand wave patterns on the bigger time frames ma be considered almost completed and ready for the beginning of a new long term trend in favor of the dollar.
On the other hand – the expected strengthening of the dollar hasn’t been confirmed yet as most economic indicators are against it, while the market participants expect another cut in the target Fed funds rate at next week's meeting (18.03.08 at 21:15 Msc). Some analytics predict the Fed will cut rates sharply by 0.75%. Of course it doesn’t add optimism to the supporters of a strong dollar. In this case it isn’t ruled out that the current Forex market sentiment will be reflected in the charts in the form of extensions against the dollar at different wave levels.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

The completion of upward impulse [v] isn’t ruled out. We only have to wait for the confirmation of it.
If further price movement develops in a corrective mode an alternate variant is possible (it is plotted at the top of the chart).
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 2 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

Relative sizes of the supposed wave flat that has been forming since the middle of January don’t rule out that wave B of a large downward zigzag A-B-C is completed. We only have to wait for the confirmation of it.
If price movement develops in a corrective mode an alternate variant is possible (it is plotted at the top of the chart).
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

The completion of downward impulse [v] isn’t ruled out. We only have to wait for the confirmation of it.
If price movement develops in a corrective mode an alternate variant is possible (it is plotted at the top of the chart).
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 4 for the alternate wave counting of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

The completion of downward impulse [v] isn’t ruled out. We only have to wait for the confirmation of it.
<P class=“clear If further price movement develops in a corrective mode an alternate variant possible (it is plotted at top of the chart).Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
March 12, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 08:54 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
At the moment the wave picture in the main currency pair remains uncertain.
On the one hand wave patterns on the bigger time frames ma be considered almost completed and ready for the beginning of a new long term trend in favor of the dollar.
On the other hand – the expected strengthening of the dollar hasn’t been confirmed yet as most economic indicators are against it, while the market participants expect another cut in the target Fed funds rate at next week's meeting (18.03.08 at 21:15 Msc). Some analytics predict the Fed will cut rates sharply by 0.75%. Of course it doesn’t add optimism to the supporters of a strong dollar. In this case it isn’t ruled out that the sentiment of the Forex market participants will be reflected on the charts in the form of extensions against the dollar at different wave levels.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 30 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 30 min chart. Variant 1.

Price movement has chosen the alternate scenario. If this is the case only a pair of ending waves are needed for a full completion of impulse (v).

Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

Upward impulse [v] may be completing. We only have to wait for the confirmation of it.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 30 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 30 min chart. Variant 1.

Price movement has chosen the alternate scenario. If this is the case only a pair of ending waves are needed for a full completion of impulse (v).

Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

An updated wave counting doesn’t rule out that wave B of a big downward zigzag A-B-C, which is assuming the shape of a wave flat, is completing. We only have to wait for the confirmation of this.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 30 min chart.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 30 min chart.

Price movement has chosen the alternate scenario. If this is the case only a pair of ending waves are needed for a full completion of impulse (v).

Figure 6. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Downward impulse [v] may be completing. We only have to wait for the confirmation of this. In case price breaks through the critical level at 98.65 (refer to the Figure below) the current scenario will have to be changed.

Figure 7. Wave counting on the daily chart.

In the supposed impulse C wave [iii] of C is shorter than wave of C. In this case one should expect that the fifth wave of impulse [v] of C will be the shortest and won’t exceed the 98.65 mark.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 8 for the alternate wave counting of this currency on 30 min chart.

Figure 8. Wave counting on 30 min chart. Variant 1.

Price movement has chosen the alternate scenario. If this is the case only a pair of ending waves are needed for a full completion of impulse (v).

Figure 9. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

Downward impulse [v] may be completing. We only have to wait for the confirmation of this.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
March 13, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 08:54 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
At the moment the wave picture in the main currency pair remains uncertain.
On the one hand wave patterns on the bigger time frames ma be considered almost completed and ready for the beginning of a new long term trend in favor of the dollar.
On the other hand – the expected strengthening of the dollar hasn’t been confirmed yet as most economic indicators are against it, while the market participants expect another cut in the target Fed funds rate at next week's meeting (18.03.08 at 21:15 Msc). Some analytics predict the Fed will cut rates sharply by 0.75%. Of course it doesn’t add optimism to the supporters of a strong dollar. In this case it isn’t ruled out that the sentiment of the Forex market participants will be reflected on the charts in the form of extensions against the dollar at different wave levels.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 30 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 30 min chart. Variant 1.

Supposedly to complete impulse (v) price only has to form the ending wave v of (v).

Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

Upward impulse [v] must be completing. We only have to wait for the confirmation of this.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 30 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 30 min chart. Variant 1.

Supposedly to complete impulse (v) price only has to form the ending wave v of (v).

Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

The current wave counting doesn’t rule out that wave B of a big downward zigzag A-B-C which is assuming the shape of a wave flat is completing. We only have to wait for the confirmation of this.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 30 min chart.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 30 min chart.

Supposedly to complete impulse (v) price only has to form the ending wave v of (v).

Figure 6. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Downward impulse [v] may be completing. We only have to wait for the confirmation of this. In case price breaks through the critical level at 98.65 (refer to the Figure below) the current scenario will have to be changed.

Figure 7. Wave counting on the daily chart.

In the supposed impulse C wave [iii] of C is shorter than wave of C. In this case one should expect that the fifth wave of impulse [v] of C will be the shortest and won’t exceed the 98.65 mark.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 8 for the alternate wave counting of this currency on 30 min chart.

Figure 8. Wave counting on 30 min chart. Variant 1.

Supposedly to complete impulse (v) price only has to form the ending wave v of (v).

Figure 9. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

Downward impulse [v] may be completing. We only have to wait for the confirmation of this.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
March 14, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 08:55 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
The worst fears concerning the US dollar expressed in the forecasts last week are coming true (refer to Introduction in Daily-140308).
Most economic indicators are against the dollar, while the market participants expect another cut in the target Fed funds rate at next week's meeting (18.03.08 at 21:15 Msc). Some analytics predict the Fed will cut rates sharply by 0.75%. Of course it doesn’t add optimism to the supporters of a strong dollar.
Such a sentiment of the Forex market participants is reflected on the charts in the form of extensions against the dollar at different wave levels.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

The ending wave (v) of upward impulse [v] may be assuming the shape of an extension.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 2 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

Among the main European currencies at the moment only the pound is declining against the dollar and consequently against the other currencies under consideration (for example refer to the charts of EUR/GBP, GBP/CHF, GBP/JPY).
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the daily chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on the daily chart.

The strengthening of the yen (i.e. the weakening of USD/JPY) breaks through one critical level after another each time making us reconsider the wave picture. So far scenarios v.1m, v.2 and v.3 remain actual (refer to The review of the bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article USD. A pause or the end of a black streak?).
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 4 for the alternate wave counting of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

The ending wave (v) of the downward impulse [v] may be assuming the shape of an extension.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
March 17, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 08:56 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
Today at 21:15 (Msc) FOMC is expected to announce its new fed funds rate. But negative expectations of the market participants have already weakened the dollar considerably which is reflected in the charts in the form of extensions against the dollar at different wave levels.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

Wave (v) of upward impulse [v] may be assuming the shape of an extension. If this is the case only a pair of ending waves is needed for its completion.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 2 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

Among major European currencies at the moment only the pound is declining against the dollar and consequently against the other currencies under consideration (for example refer to the charts of EUR/GBP, GBP/CHF, GBP/JPY).
The updated counting doesn’t rule out that the supposed wave B has assumed the shape of a double zigzag and may continue developing in a zigzag mode.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the daily chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on the daily chart.

The strengthening of the yen (i.e. the weakening of USD/JPY) breaks through one critical level after another each time making us reconsider the wave picture. So far scenarios v.1m, v.2 and v.3 remain actual (refer to The review of the bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article USD. A pause or the end of a black streak?).
In the area of the 95..96 marks there is a good resistance level formed in the in the mid-90's of the previous century. The supposed double zigzag W-X-Y may complete there.

Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Wave (v) of downward impulse [c] of Y may be assuming the shape of an extension. If this is the case only a pair of ending waves is needed for its completion.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 5 for the alternate wave counting of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

Wave (v) of downward impulse [v] may be assuming the shape of an extension. If this is the case only a pair of ending waves is needed for its completion.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
March 18, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-21 08:58 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
The Fed’s interest-rate cut yesterday was expected by the Forex market participants. Their expectations were reflected in the charts in the form of extensions against the dollar at different wave levels. That’s why it isn’t ruled out that the decline of the dollar will stop at that having left a little bit crumpled top of impulse in the chart and a phase of its strengthening at least local will begin.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

If price fixes below the border of the trend channel and below the confirmatory level it will confirm the completion of the dollar’s decline (the rise of EUR/USD) будет закрепление цены ниже границы трендового канала и ниже подтверждающего уровня.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 2 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

If price fixes below the border of the trend channel and below the confirmatory level it will be the confirmation of the accepted scenario.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the daily chart.

Figure 1. Wave counting on the daily chart.

The strengthening of the yen (i.e. the weakening of USD/JPY) left scenarios v.1m, v.2 and v.3 (refer to The review of the bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article USD. A pause or the end of a black streak?) actual.
In the area of the 95..96 marks there is a good resistance level formed in the in the mid-90's of the previous century. The supposed double zigzag W-X-Y may complete there.

Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

If price fixes above the border of the trend channel and above the confirmatory level it will be the confirmation of the completion of the dollar’s decline (the decline of USD/JPY).
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0308. Refer to Figure 5 for the alternate wave counting of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.

If price fixes above the border of the trend channel and above the confirmatory level it will be the confirmation of the completion of the dollar’s decline (the decline of USD/CHF).
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
March 19, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.
金币:
奖励:
热心:
注册时间:
2006-7-3

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