一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

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Thursday, May 31, 2007Talk About the Weather
I've always felt a bit sorry for meteorologists here in the San Francisco Bay Area. Because, between about April and October, they really have very little to say. The forecast is, more or less, as follows: "There will be patchy morning fog, clearing by late morning. Highs on the coast will be in the lower to mid 60s, with lower to mid 70s around the Bay and low 80s farther inland." It varies little from day to day, week to week, month to month. No rain. No hail. No nothing.

I'm starting to feel a bit like that about the markets these days. "Horrible economic news was reported to me. The markets rallied on the news to historic new highs. Bearish patterns were laid waste."

Oh, well. At least we didn't go up another 120 points today. The economy came in with the weakest numbers since 2002, and the Dow was basically unchanged. Looking at the RSI and slow stochastic, you can see how the market is seeming awfully tired, in spite of the progression in prices.


Much the same can be said of the S&P 500 ($SPX).


I was distraught at all the gorgeous real estate head & shoulders patterns getting trounced yesterday, but maybe there is hope yet. Apartment Investments (AIV) is no longer a perfect H&S, but today's weakness is a good sign.


I haven't posted American Airlines (AMR) in a while, but this is a head and shoulders pattern which remains cleanly intact with what appears to be a nice retracement to the neckline in progress.

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I haven't posted American Airlines (AMR) in a while, but this is a head and shoulders pattern which remains cleanly intact with what appears to be a nice retracement to the neckline in progress.


JC Penney hasn't completed its pattern yet, but - - - it could! Keep an eye on it.


A lot of investment banks seem exhausted lately, whether you look at GS, LEH, or any of many others. Here is Morgan Stanley (MS), which seems to have made a bit of a double top.


Whirlpool (WHR), a Dow 30 component, is very lofty right now. This seems to me a short with an attractive risk/reward ratio.





[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-29 16:39 编辑 ]

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Whirlpool (WHR), a Dow 30 component, is very lofty right now. This seems to me a short with an attractive risk/reward ratio.


And the Big Oil stocks - Exxon Mobil (XOM) is a favorite of mine to watch - likewise have an attractive risk/reward ratio for shorting right now.


There's a ton of economic news tomorrow morning. Let's see if June gets off to a better start for the bears than May was.
at 5/31/2007 18 insightful comments
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Labels: $indu, $spx, aiv, amr, jcp, msft, whr, xom


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Wednesday, May 30, 2007The Price of Tea in China
Unstoppable. The bulls are simply unstoppable.

As you know, before the market opened this morning, it was greeted by the news that China's stock market had fallen more than 6% (that would be like the Dow falling over 800 points here). Naturally, our markets opened lower. And they spent the day pushing higher.

To a new record close.

The Dow's at a lifetime high. So is the Russell 2000. And, unless I'm mistaken, so is the S&P 500. It's enough to make me consider renaming this blog The Wall of Worry.

In a balls-out bull market, traditionally bearish patterns get squashed. The chart below is a good example. This is a great-looking head and shoulders pattern. Or at least it was, as indicated by the highlight. But the market doesn't care. It's simply too strong, and this pattern - as with so many others - has been neutered.


I am buying energy stocks, because they are just about the only bullish charts that look like they have firepower behind them, as opposed to just being momentum plays. Here's Apache Corp (APA). Notice the good surge in volume on today, a very good "up" day.



Much the same can be said of Southwestern Energy (SWN).


That's about all I have to say today. This is just getting to be a bit much!


at 5/30/2007 34 insightful comments
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Tuesday, May 29, 2007Indecision
For those of you who didn't read this morning's post, please check out  which is a little something I've been putting together. I'd love it for some of the readers here to contribute.

The market is in a pretty serious state of indecision. It could be just gathering its breath before it makes an assault on Dow 14,000. Looking at the Dow 30 over the past few months, however, it seems the technical indicators point to a reduction in prices as opposed to a fresh surge.


The Major Market Index ($XMI), although shaped differently, seems to present a similar argument. Especially if the old saw "Sell in May and Go Away" holds true.


The head and shoulders pattern, a favorite of mine, showtimes holds together and sometimes doesn't. Akamai (AKAM), mentioned here often recently, seems to be moving in accordance to its pattern.


Real estate stocks, on the other hand, seem to have violated their recent head and shoulders pattern across the board. Essex (ESS), shown below, is a good example - as is the much broader IYR. This doesn't necessarily mean the bearish pattern is moot. But it definitely diminishes its credibility, since prices have soared above the neckline.

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Real estate stocks, on the other hand, seem to have violated their recent head and shoulders pattern across the board. Essex (ESS), shown below, is a good example - as is the much broader IYR. This doesn't necessarily mean the bearish pattern is moot. But it definitely diminishes its credibility, since prices have soared above the neckline.


Symbol ALB seems to be forming a nice trend change as well. I would say this is another head and shoulders pattern as well. They seem to be common these days.


at 5/29/2007 11 insightful comments
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Wednesday, October 8, 2008On The Floor - The Markets - In Pictures








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at Wednesday, October 08, 2008 1 comments
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Thursday, May 24, 2007Some Day This War's Gonna End
It was a good day today. At first, I was distressed to see the Dow blasting higher, well past the 13,600 mark. It was up nearly 100 points. But I noticed something. Looking at the $RUT and the $SPX, they were not at new highs. In fact, it looked like the Dow's strength was just pushing them into making a right shoulder on an intraday head and shoulders pattern. So I bought more puts.

That was the right move. The Dow went limp, soft, and squishy, and we enjoy a nearly 200 point intraday turnaround. Every single position of mine was way in the green.

Oh, please remember to sign up  which now has nearly 100 members! It's free, and it's a fun way to see the other folks that have made the trip to The Slope of Hope.

Now, I am maintaining my cautious and newly humble disposition, so I will say, in the face of today's fall, that we must exercise caution. Just look at all the recent falls in the past few months. Every single one of them was just a blip - a momentary pause - before the market shot higher still. So a grudging respect for the bulls is in order.


I mentioned Bunge Ltd (BG), and it is doing beautiful. The perfect presentation of lower highs and lower lows.


I mentioned yesterday that housing stocks had pushed up to their necklines, and I was going heavily short to enjoy the hoped-for fall. It did just that. It's nice when patterns behave as they should. Here's Essex (ESS) as just one example.


InfoSys (INFY) at long last cracked beneath its neckline. Now we can get serious about making some cash on this one.


PSB also enjoyed the aforementioned housing H&S fall.

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PSB also enjoyed the aforementioned housing H&S fall.


Vornado (VNO), suggested by a reader here last week, is another honey.


Whirlpool (WHR - has that for a boring company?) is flipping direction too. Good.


And now, your thought for the day.


at 5/24/2007 28 insightful comments
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Wednesday, May 23, 2007Thanks, Alan
The market surged again this morning. The S&P 500 was at a new lifetime high. As was the Russell 2000. As was the Dow 30. It looked like Dow 14,000 was just around the corner.

Then Alan Greenspan - bless him - threw some cold water on the excitement by speculating the Chinese market was overheated and headed for a fall. That's all it took to render the breakout (shown in green) moot (shown in pink).


Now, the Old Tim would have been dancing around shouting about how it's the end of the world. But the New Improved Tim With Integrated Timing (figure the acronym out for yourself), severely humbled over the past year, will do nothing of the sort. Indeed, if you think back to Greenspan's most famous declaration ever - - "irrational exuberance" - - it might be instructive. He said it on December 5, 1996, and you can see the brief aftermath here:


But if you take a longer view, you will note that the irrational exuberance had barely even started. The market went up hundreds of percent more, as measured by the NASDAQ.


Not to say that I'm unhappy with today's small tumble. A look at the major indexes shows they are very tired. Here's the S&P 500:

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-1 12:30 编辑 ]

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