一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

111111111111111111

hefeiddd

Merrill Lynch (MER), on which I own puts, seems to be turning the corner. RSI and the slow stochastic are in a downturn, and the retracement seems to have played itself out.


Much can said of US Steel (X) as well.


I think today might be the last "the Dow has to go up because it just keeps going up" day for a bit. My sense is that we'll see a lower Dow on Monday. See you then.

at 4/27/2007 27 insightful comments
Links to this post
Labels: amr, cof, mer, mrvl, x

hefeiddd

11111111111111

hefeiddd

Thursday, April 26, 2007Twenty-Five-Peat
Yawn. The bull's getting boring. By my count, 25 out of the past 31 days have been up on the Dow. So much for climbing a wall of worry. It's skipping higher.

I mentioned yesterday that the US Dollar had to soften up to have any chance of market softness. Although it didn't help today, I notice the NZD/USD did weaken considerably and is sporting a pretty hefty bearish engulfing pattern.


One nice effect this did have is to soften up gold quite a bit. My $XAU puts continue to do well.


Apple traded over $100 for a while today, its highest price in history. I remembered Dell's famous quote in the late 90s about how Apple should just give up, so I decided to look up when he said that. Well, fancy that - - right near the bottom. Buyers of Dell on that day would have about 140% in profits by now. Buyers of Apple, on the other hand, have enjoyed more like a 1,600% gain.


Akamai, a short suggestion here, continues to fall on very significant volume.

hefeiddd

Thursday, April 26, 2007Twenty-Five-Peat



One nice effect this did have is to soften up gold quite a bit. My $XAU puts continue to do well.






[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-30 16:56 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

1111111111111111111

hefeiddd

Akamai, a short suggestion here, continues to fall on very significant volume.


I sold American Airlines (AMR) short yesterday near its high for the day, and it is sinking nicely away from its neckline. By traditional measurements, there could be another $9 in losses on this stock.


I've never charted Honeywell (HON) here before, but it's a Dow 30 stock and worth watching. No clear bearish pattern here, but clearly an opportunity for it to take a breather.


I've mentioned in the recent past how McKesson (MCK) is dancing around its Fibonacci fan lines. At long last, it started to fall away from one of those lines today. It took a while.

hefeiddd

1111111111111111111

hefeiddd

I've mentioned in the recent past how McKesson (MCK) is dancing around its Fibonacci fan lines. At long last, it started to fall away from one of those lines today. It took a while.


Morgan Stanley (MS) represents a relatively low-risk short here, since it has apparently retraced about all of the descent that it is planning to retrace.


PSB, which I've been short a while, continues to slowly form a potential head and shoulders pattern. So far, so good.


Questar (STR), mentioned several times recently as a long candidate, moved handsomely higher today.


In honor of Steven Hawking's planned adventure in weightlessness, I thought I'd share this funny (but slightly NSFW) clip.


at 4/26/2007 34 insightful comments
Links to this post
Labels: $xau, aapl, akam, amr, hon, mck, msft, psb, str


Newer Posts Older Posts Home

hefeiddd

11111111111111111

hefeiddd

Wednesday, April 25, 2007Yeeeeeech....
You can thank the good people of United Airlines for my ability to get this post done relatively promptly. My brief flight from Seattle to San Francisco has been delayed three hours. So here I sit on the plane, waxing poetic about this insane market.

By the way, does anyone find this image from the login page of TMobile to be strangely suggestive? (Long, uncomfortable pause). No? I guess it's just me.


Here's the NZD/USD - - what I have to say about it is basically the same as what I've got to say in the next paragraph.....


As long as the dollar remains weak, there's going to be yet another reason for stocks to go higher. Looking at the EUR/USD chart, it's clear that we're at an extreme point, but (obviously) it could push to yet another extreme. This chart, in case it's not clear to you, shows the strength of the Euro (and, conversely, the weakness of the dollar), so mentally invert it.


What's interesting about the market is just how swiftly it has pushed higher. Look at the chart below. I've highlighted each of the most recent three "surges", and as you can see, each surge is happening with greater speed. The two lonely down periods here were last summer (oh, how I miss those days....) and - ever so briefly - about eight weeks ago.


The NASDAQ Composite is still within its rising channel, at the tippy-tippy top. Clearly Apple's (AAPL) sensational earnings will push both Apple and the NASDAQ higher first thing in the morning

hefeiddd

111111111111111111111

hefeiddd

The NASDAQ Composite is still within its rising channel, at the tippy-tippy top. Clearly Apple's (AAPL) sensational earnings will push both Apple and the NASDAQ higher first thing in the morning.


The S&P 500 is clearly above its channel. An overshot, or a whole new ball game? Search me.


If you want a truly bullish picture of the market, take a step back and look at the long-term $XMI. This is a chart of an amazing breakout, a perfect pullback, and a subsequent push to new highs. This is exactly what bull markets are made of. Astonishing.


I have suggested Akamai (AKAM) as a short before. It didn't really perform until today.

hefeiddd

1111111111111111

hefeiddd

I have suggested Akamai (AKAM) as a short before. It didn't really perform until today.


I like looking for weak stocks on a day like today, because if a stock can't get it up on a day like this, it's in sorry shape. Check out ATI.


Same goes for Colgate, which actually opened higher. Look at the honey of a bearish engulfing pattern on this one.


CRS, mentioned here yesterday, is failing its breakout, and it fell today on strong volume.

hefeiddd

1111111111111111111111111

hefeiddd

CRS, mentioned here yesterday, is failing its breakout, and it fell today on strong volume.


Dril Quip (DRQ), mentioned in this blog before as a buy, continues to perform well. Just about anything to do with energy (either classic or alternate) seems to be zooming these days. I can at least take heart that I am in a natural gas partnership.


General Dynamics (GD) looks like a potential short. It busted its trendline a number of weeks back, and it seems to have double topped today, falling when everything else was rising.


I don't have any particular opinion on GOOG, but it only rose one tenth of one percent today - - pretty feeble, wouldn't you say? I think it may be telling. I'd also point out that all the gains from its fantastic earnings report a few days ago have vanished. Everyone who bought into that rally - even at the day's low - is in a losing position now.

hefeiddd

1111111111111111111

hefeiddd

I don't have any particular opinion on GOOG, but it only rose one tenth of one percent today - - pretty feeble, wouldn't you say? I think it may be telling. I'd also point out that all the gains from its fantastic earnings report a few days ago have vanished. Everyone who bought into that rally - even at the day's low - is in a losing position now.


I like Southern Copper (PCU) as a short at this price.


Schnitzer Steel (SCHN) - - man, can you imagine being the receptionist there and saying that name all day long? - - continues to look fantastic as a bullish play. Wonderful strength on handsome volume.


Questar also looks good on the long side.

hefeiddd

11111111111111111111