一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

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My AMLN short - so far, so good. It's down to $40 in after-hours trading. This is a sharp looking graph.


Bear Stearns has had an ungodly amazing run. Again, this isn't a slam-dunk bearish pattern, but more of a "this is stretched to the max" situation. But some maxes can out-max themselves, as we painfully know.


The same logic holds true for Goldman Sachs.


I rarely mention Nvidia, but puts on this stock could benefit greatly from any general downturn in tech stocks, given its huge runup.

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hefeiddd

I rarely mention Nvidia, but puts on this stock could benefit greatly from any general downturn in tech stocks, given its huge runup.


Lastly, a suggestion for a buy (or calls)......Oil Services (OIH). My view is that the drop in crude prices has had its run. Take a good look at how strong volume has been recently, in the midst of the stock consolidating in the upper 120s. Stop-loss price on this one would be $125.80, in my opinion.


at 1/17/2007 10 insightful comments
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Labels: amln, bsc, gs, nvda, oih

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Tuesday, January 16, 2007Earnings Season Begins
Earnings season is upon us again. So our chances of turning the corner downward appear briefly once more. Unless earnings are, on the whole, not up to expectations, Dow 13,000 seems all but inevitable.

Intel (INTC) is down after-hours, in spite of hitting expectations. And Rackable Systems (RACK) is getting completely clobbered:


My colleague Michael Kahn wrote this morning, "The rally rumbles on and quite honestly we are out of new ways to say that this should not be happening." Well said. The NASDAQ Composite is above even the high water mark of its channel. This rally is based on the same sensibilities as late 1999/early 2000. Just insane.


The S&P 500 is much the same story.


Of particular concern is the Dow Transports. Just take a look at how swiftly it has managed to retrace back to the descending trendline. I have a feeling it could pierce above this, which would weaken the bearish argument further still.

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hefeiddd

Of particular concern is the Dow Transports. Just take a look at how swiftly it has managed to retrace back to the descending trendline. I have a feeling it could pierce above this, which would weaken the bearish argument further still.


Looking at more history of the $TRAN, you can see how prior breakouts preceded substantial moves upward.


ANDE, mentioned in this space before, remains a good speculative bullish play. It all depends on the stock pushing above the neckline you see drawn here.


BP, which has been much in the news lately, looks like it is forming a tremendous top.

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hefeiddd

BP, which has been much in the news lately, looks like it is forming a tremendous top.


CCJ, although not in any crystal clear pattern, is a short I entered today. It seems to have a very good risk/reward profile.


And Cigna (CI) may have formed an important double top. As always, you must use stop-loss orders!


A short idea I haven't offered here before, I don't think - symbol GEF.

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hefeiddd

A short idea I haven't offered here before, I don't think - symbol GEF.


Now GOOG is interesting. It matched a lifetime intraday high today, but actually fell a little bit. Is this a double top? Or does it simply proceed a rush to $600 when they announce their earnings? I certainly don't know.


McKesson sports an interesting pattern with those Fib Fans as a backdrop. Might be a triple top here.


As for MLS, shown below, I'm not saying buy or sell. It's simply a fascinating study in how, once higher highs/higher lows are broken, the trend shift can be devastating. Because it completely morphed into a series of lower highs/lower lows. Fascinating stuff.


at 1/16/2007 7 insightful comments
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Labels: $compq, ande, bp, ccj, ci, gef, goog, mls, new high, rack


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Friday, January 12, 2007On Options
Well, it was another wreck of a day for da bears (new high on the Dow, once again), so.......let's talk about something else, shall we? Seriously, one of the most frequent requests I have been getting in the comments section has been to talk a bit about options. So here we go.

Considering the market's behavior lately, let's make this a happy story and focus on a call option. In particular, a call option for a stock I suggested way back in an

At the time, the stock was at about $25. Now let's suppose you had so much faith in this chart that you didn't just want to buy the stock, you wanted to buy the call option (in order to leverage your investment and possibly enjoy great percentage gains).

Well, let's slow down for just a minute and do the most important thing first: figure out a stop-loss price. In other words, figure out at what price we would consider our speculation incorrect. In the case of BLUD, the deepest point of the most recent dip in this chart was at $21.57, about $4 less than its current price. So we decide that if the price ever dips below this level, we will close out our position at once.


Next we have to pick an option - - we'll want a call option, of course, since we're bullish on the stock. I typically look for a number of properties in the option I choose:

So, for instance, here's a chunk of an options screen showing the S&P options; the one I've highlighted is interesting since its volume and open interest stand out above the others, plus, it's in-the-money.


Those are pretty much the steps. Once they are in place, one of several things can happen. The stock can move in the direction you anticipated, which will benefit the option even more. Or the stock can move against you, pushing past your stop price, and closing the position at a loss. Or the stock can just meander along, which isn't something you can tolerate for long because the option will expire at some point!


Now let's see the happy ending to this story. BLUD went up about 30% since the suggestion back in October. But the option went up hundreds of percent! That's the beauty of leverage. Now, I admit, this is a fairly idealized example. But the important things to note are: (a) some of the rules to follow (b) the importance of stops (c) the power of leverage, if things go your way!




at 1/12/2007 31 insightful comments
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Thursday, January 11, 2007Shuttering Anon
I've shut off Anonymous comments again. It's not that I'm upset by the put-downs; believe me, I've got a thick skin. But some clown has become so abusive - without anything constructive to say - that I'm demanding a person at least show themselves to make a comment. I've had enough.



I suggested the short when it was at about $71. The stock quickly climbed to $74.89, so yes, you could have laughed and thrown bricks at me for making a stupid suggestion. But after a few days of going up, it started descending, and now it's at $61. A 9% drop in a month really isn't shabby, even though I was "wrong" for the first few trading days. So excuse me if everything doesn't work out perfectly. I've drawn a green rectangle around the "Tim is an idiot" timeframe.


Today's action pushed the Dow to yet another lifetime, never-before-seen high. I took advantage of this to sell into the trading near the top of the day's range. I really like the look of the Russell 2000.


Take a closer look at the $RUT. I've drawn the lower highs and lower lows. Very attractive.


Just a couple of short suggestions tonight. One is AMLN. I can't say for sure that this isn't going to recover more. No promises. But this is a very toppy looking formation.

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hefeiddd

Just a couple of short suggestions tonight. One is AMLN. I can't say for sure that this isn't going to recover more. No promises. But this is a very toppy looking formation.


The other one is Camden Properties (CPT), which also is in recovery mode. I'm selling into the strength of this one.


Good-bye, anonymous posters. I really don't think I'll be letting you in again.
at 1/11/2007 11 insightful comments
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Wednesday, January 10, 2007The S&P 1400 Line in the Sand
The most important fact of today's activity is the S&P 500 didn't breach 1400. The horizontal line you see below is substantial. For many weeks, it provided a formidable resistance to prices moving above it. Once clearly pierced, it transformed into support. This barrier is crucial......unless it is cracked soon, hope will fade (for the umpteenth time) for a meaningful drop in the market.


The NASDAQ has been especially strong recently. I'm sure Apple, Inc. (AAPL) can largely be credited for this.


Finally, the Dow Transports remain safely bearish, but if the downward sloping trendline is broken (which would be at about the point the arrow is pointing), that would be really bad for the bears.


Just a couple of stocks to mention today - one short and one long - - and both tech. The short suggestion is gigantic Microsoft (MSFT). Years ago, this stock minted millionares and billionaires. Now it's just a big, fat bore. But its recent rapid ascent makes for a nice shorting opportunity with very low risk, since the stop-loss point is to close.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-5 11:46 编辑 ]

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