一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Just a couple of stocks to mention today - one short and one long - - and both tech. The short suggestion is gigantic Microsoft (MSFT). Years ago, this stock minted millionares and billionaires. Now it's just a big, fat bore. But its recent rapid ascent makes for a nice shorting opportunity with very low risk, since the stop-loss point is to close.


On the flip side is none other than Sun Microsystems, which has been in the process of either getting blown to pieces of marking time since the turn of the millineum. It finally seems to have done something exciting, and there's no doubt that the burst above the huge area of resistance drawn here is unusual and meaningful.


at 1/10/2007 36 insightful comments
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Labels: $ndx, $spx, $tran, msft, sunw


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Tuesday, January 09, 2007Ode to Steve Jobs
All the world was abuzz today This is one gorgeous, sexy, amazing-looking product. Although I've used a PC for years, I bought my first Macintosh early in 1984, and I worked at Apple for a few years. Steve Jobs has been my hero since I was about 14 years old, and the adventures he has had in his business life make Odysseus look like a bore.

Steve Jobs has more style in his pinkie than Bill Gates has in his whole body. And even though the Google founders could buy and sell Steve Jobs many times over, I doubt there's anyone in the country that would opt for lunch with the Google guys over Steve Jobs. He's amazing. As is the press coverage....the top story on CNN!


So it's not surprise that Apple exploded higher today....on volume of over 100 million shares! It wasn't that many years ago that the entire stock market traded 100 million shares. Now just one stock can do it. Just look at this graph!


This is a very late posting, so I'm going to have to tear through it. Boeing (BA) still looks like it's changing trends.


COF, mentioned many times in this space, is moving achingly slowly, but at least it's moving down.


Express Scripts (ESRX), a favorite here, looks terrific. Lower lows and lower highs are clearly intact.

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hefeiddd

Express Scripts (ESRX), a favorite here, looks terrific. Lower lows and lower highs are clearly intact.


CSX still looks good on the short side.


And FTO is looking like it has a real chance at completing its head and shoulders pattern.


HES is moving nicely lower with all the oil stocks (yep, I got blown out of those OIH calls first thing this morning).

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hefeiddd

HES is moving nicely lower with all the oil stocks (yep, I got blown out of those OIH calls first thing this morning).


And Hilton (HLT) is obeying the "trendline changing from support to resistance" phenomenon.


Oh, and then there's RIMM. I set my stop too tight on this. It got killed today - obviously because of Apple. I mean, the Blackberry is the most boring piece of crap on the planet compared to the sexy iPhone. Who wants one of those ugly Blackberries now? That's so 2002.


RTI continues to behave as any bearish pick should.

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hefeiddd

RTI continues to behave as any bearish pick should.


...as does SIE...


...and TSO...


It's late, so I'd better publish this. I hopefully will have more time tomorrow for some general market analysis. Thanks for stopping by!
at 1/09/2007 11 insightful comments
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Labels: aapl, ba, cof, csx, esrx, fto, hes, hlt, rimm, rti, sie, steve jobs, tso

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hefeiddd

Monday, January 08, 2007Grease the Pig
The market tumbled about fifty points earlier today, but it recovered to close up twenty-five on the Dow. I think the bulls are trying to mount a comeback. We will see if the nascent lower highs/lower lows has any legs to it.

One market that intrigues me on the long side is oil (as a short-term play). I think the recent tumble has been fast, and the "common knowledge" that we're in a very warm winter has permeated the media so thoroughly that it strikes me as a contrary indicator. This minute bar graph suggests a possible consolidation, with a stop-loss price on the OIH of 128.94.


The market, as measured by the Dow Jones Composite, seems to be in a trading range, and today we were near the bottom of it. I wouldn't be surprised at all if, by and large, this was an upward-pointing weak.


The Dow Jones 30 has a clearer "lower lows/lower highs" pattern going on, although it's not been that way for long. I've tried to use arrows and circles to simplify the pattern.


The NASDAQ 100 also suggest a medium-sized trend change.

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hefeiddd

The NASDAQ 100 also suggest a medium-sized trend change.


One index I'm eyeing as a short - - although I might let it ride higher for a bit - - is the Russell 2000.


The S&P 500, whose puts I sold early in the day for a nice profit, may have topped out recently. But - you know me! - the guy who predicted 17 of the last 3 bear markets! But even a bull would agree the past couple of weeks have been on the downslope.


Another indication that we may have a bit of an upsurge is that the $VIX is relatively high, based on the activity of the past couple of months. It has typically softened once it reaches these levels, and the market tends to swell higher during that softening

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hefeiddd

Another indication that we may have a bit of an upsurge is that the $VIX is relatively high, based on the activity of the past couple of months. It has typically softened once it reaches these levels, and the market tends to swell higher during that softening.


I've just got three stocks I wanted to point out tonight. Autozone (symbol AZO) looks like a potential double top. I bought puts on this today.


My fascination with Google (GOOG) goes unabated. A petite head and shoulders seems to be intact here.


Finally, MDC, which I have been short a few days, is behaving nicely, moving away from its neckline.

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hefeiddd

Finally, MDC, which I have been short a few days, is behaving nicely, moving away from its neckline.


I'll be traveling tomorrow, but hopefully I'll get time to post an update at the airport. Thanks for dropping by!
at 1/08/2007 13 insightful comments
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Labels: $indu, $spx, azo, goog, mdc, oih

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Friday, January 05, 2007A Good Start

Another macro trend (which had everyone in a panic early last summer) is the descent in crude oil prices. When crude was at about $80 per barrel, people were freaking out, and $100 per barrel seemed a foregone conclusion. My view of this market is very bearish. The break below the trendlines you see here is significant.


The NASDAQ exhibits something about trendlines that I've mentioned before, and which I always find fascinating. That is, the act of the trendline changing from support to resistance. Look how the market took its first fall last summer and spent most of 2006's second half climbing back up to kiss the underbelly of the trendline. Now the descent begins anew.


And look how the RSI in the Dow 30 keeps slipping away. The first trading week of 2007 seems off to a great start.


And the Transports have a good chance of cracking the enormously important trendline you see below the current price level.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-5 13:17 编辑 ]

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