一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

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Thursday, August 31, 2006Somnambulant
Holy God, will someone please make me up whenever everyone gets back from vacation? I haven't had a vacation in years. Where is everyone? This is nuts!

OK, rant over. The market, once again, puttered, farted, and lolligagged all day long. My twin-disc DVD set ("Grass Growing" and "Paint Drying") is providing excellent entertainment in lieu of the markets. I think all market commentators should get time off until Tuesday, September 6th. It's just not right!

I really have nothing new to say about the markets. If things don't start getting zippier, I'm going to have to start posting old baseball statistics. Here are just a few charts. The latest on the S&P 500...........which way will it go? Hopefully next week, the first post-summer trading, will yield an answer.


The oil services sector, which fell nicely yesterday, went up a touch today. We still need to break below 130 to make this exciting. I've put a rounded rectangle to indicate the space OIH needs to traverse to make this H&S pattern complete.


The VIX is still stuck in neutral. Complacency abounds.




at 8/31/2006 95 insightful comments
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Wednesday, August 30, 2006Oil Slips, Market Blips
It had to happen sooner or later. I'd like to proudly announce the store. There's just a few odds and ends there to proudly display your bearish disposition. Enjoy!

Even though the market rose again (grrrrrr........) my bearish portfolio rose too (hurrah!) mainly because I have so many oil shorts. Oil fell nicely, but it still hasn't broken its neckline. The magic number on the OIH is 130, folks. Go, OIH, go!


Did the S&P 100 double-top as of today? Only time will tell. I think almost everyone who reads this blog is sick of waiting for the market to run out of steam. I certainly am.


The $NDX (NASDAQ 100) is kissing the underside of its former supporting trendline. In fairness to the bulls, it seems the NASDAQ Composite ($COMPQ) overcame a similar trendline today. Here's the aforementioned $NDX.......


If you want to see proof of the volume withering away in this summer market, look at the SPY graph below. It isn't just a "last week of August" situation. For three whole months the volume has been shrinking. How's that for divergence when compared with the price action, eh?

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If you want to see proof of the volume withering away in this summer market, look at the SPY graph below. It isn't just a "last week of August" situation. For three whole months the volume has been shrinking. How's that for divergence when compared with the price action, eh?


The $VIX is screaming "complacency." It just grinds lower and lower. I guess people expect boredom and smooth sailing until we have active colonies on Mars.


A reader wrote and asked me to take off the bearish headpiece and point out a couple of bullish charts. I'd be happy to do so. The American Stock Exchange's Major Market Index ($XMI) is really good looking. The only reason I wouldn't rush headlong into buying this is because it's a freak. All the other major index charts look neutral at best. But, on its own, this is a fantastic looking chart for bulls.


As for an individual stock, it's not going to make anyone multi-hundred percent gains anytime soon, but Genentech (DNA) has been very firm. A nice saucer shape has been forming.


Now go buy a t-shirt! And I'll see you tomorrow......
at 8/30/2006 38 insightful comments
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Wednesday, August 30, 2006Bulls Free to Run
Good morning.

There is - unfortunately! - a fair bit of "open space" for the bulls to roam upward. There's really not much in the way of overhead resistance on the major indexes and, by and large, there's a decent amount of space between current prices and the next Fib level up (which is where they peaked last May). Not a great setup going into what is usually a "bear's month", September.

Take the $SPX (please!) I've marked in yellow the wide open space that bulls could trample upward, if they've got it in them (and, in the past month, they certainly have).


Much the same can be said of the Dow Industrals.



The NASDAQ is a bit more of an exception. It's approaching a fairly substantial trendline from down below.


Being exasperated gets old. I'm just going to keep sitting and puzzling. Weird, weird market....


at 8/30/2006 55 insightful comments
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Monday, August 28, 2006Last Week of the Doldrums?
The market is up fairly substantially this morning (Dow +75 points as of this writing), but my portfolios are pretty much unchanged. The reason is that any losses are being offset by my shorts in oil- and gold-related stocks, both of which are having a down day.

The market has been in a low-volume funk for a long time. Word on the street is that, once Labor Day is passed us this weekend, we'll return to normalcy. I sure hope so. These markets are really dull right now.

The S&P 500 is terrifyingly close to crossing its 78.6% Fib retracement (sort of the last holdout....) at the 1303.80 level. It's less than a point away from it now. Not the end of the world if it crosses it, but it puts another thumbtack into the bearish coffin if it does.

In the meantime, here are some interesting looking short possibilities. I've put a red "stop order if crossed" line on most of these........

ADBE:


DRQ:


EOG:


HAL:

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HAL:


MCK:


RIG:


XAU:


at 8/28/2006 17 insightful comments
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Friday, August 25, 2006How Many Ways to Say "Nothing"?
Each day I read fellow analysts Charles Kirk (of Kirk Report fame) and Michael Kahn (of Barron's fame). I notice they're in the same predicament I am.....how many different ways can one say, "there's nothing else I can say!" Posts are getting smaller and shorter every day!

Honestly, this has been a completely boring week. Everyone keeps saying all the traders are on vacation. Is that really the case? It's astonishing to me that an entire stock market can be so dulled by a portion of people taking their summer vacations. Oh, well. The volume is more telling than my opinion.

If a light strikes me this weekend and I think of some more good graphs to share, I will. In the meantime, here are a few interesting charts from my forthcoming book. Make of them what you will! (They're from the chapter on Head & Shoulders patterns)








at 8/25/2006 48 insightful comments
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Thursday, August 24, 2006A Watched Pot (Again)...
Oh my LORD the stock market is boring lately. Sheesh! I've elected to put up a YouTube movie of paint drying (with grass growing in the foreground) since it's more enticing.

So I'm just going to toss out some more interesting short ideas. The first of which, BBBY, I offered a few days ago, and it's started to leg dow nicely.


CAT (getting near the end, or a trendline break instead?)


CERN


MRO

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MRO


MCK


MSTR


at 8/24/2006 35 insightful comments
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Wednesday, August 23, 2006Are We Finally Turning Around?
Below is the intraday S&P 500. Does this look like a top to you? At least for the short term? I think so. I sure hope so. An honest to goodness down day was a pleasant change.


The $VIX has been ungodly low lately, and that also seems to be turning around. It sure makes put options cheap at these levels.


The Dow lost a little more than 40 points today. Looks like it's backing away from that ascending trendline.


The NASDAQ 100 bounced away from its own trendline beautifully......

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