一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Everyone's favorite Internet stock, Google (GOOG), is below; once again, a nice clean break with the price kissing the underside of what used to be support:


Gilead (GILD), an idea I got from fellow chartist Michael Kahn, is shaping up to a lovely head & shoulders pattern (obviously a favorite of mine, since I keep mentioning this popular pattern):


Chocolate maker Hersheys (HSY) formed a massive head & shoulders pattern. It's not perfect, since the left shoulder is actually a little lower than the right, but we'll let that go.

Invitrogen (IVGN) broke a huge ascending trendline a couple of weeks ago and is kissing the underside of that line:

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BMHC

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CMGI




DNA


EMC


EMC 2007

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ACMR

hefeiddd

五月 03, 2009 - 03:42 下午The Energizer BunnyThe handful of large positions I have are all basically commodity-bullish; I have no big index positions of either stripe. I'm as confounded by the strength in /ES now as everyone else (I'm typing this about 40 minutes into the open on Sunday afternoon). If we cross above 887, well, that's just going to encourage the bulls even more.




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五月 01, 2009 - 01:04 下午The Crystal-Clear, Plainly-Defined Trend

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hefeiddd

五月 01, 2009 - 12:42 下午Goofy Stocks Continue to PerformWell, my IRA still won't give up. It's filled with weird little stuff like this:

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I've been charting for a long time, but I admit, how to handle moves like this is always tough for me. It's up over 50% from my purchase price, and most of the profit is very "thin" (e.g. fast moves up).


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五月 01, 2009 - 11:08 上午SOHU Looks StrongI like the look of SOHU. An absolutely gigantic cup with handle pattern and volume in all the right places.

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hefeiddd

五月 01, 2009 - 10:17 上午Energy Pushes HigherWell, I've got egg on my face - I admit it! - about any coolness toward energy. I've bought 4,000 DIG based on OIH's breakout above resistance. I am not crazy about the weak volume, but the price pattern is very plainly bullish.

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五月 01, 2009 - 09:49 上午Strength in MetalsXME has pushed above 33.10; this looks pretty strong to me.

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hefeiddd

五月 01, 2009 - 09:22 上午Something Actually Truly BullishIn spite of all my grumpiness, there are, here 'n' there, some charts that are honest-to-goodness nice-looking bullish charts. One I pointed out a week or so ago is STV, which looks like this now:

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Ain't it purty? A nice, clean breakout, and no concentrated amount of overhead supply.


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五月 01, 2009 - 08:18 上午Go Long the QID?The NASDAQ has had a sensational run, but we're right up against the underside of a long-term Fibonacci fan line.

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One way to play this might be going long QID, which is the double-inverse. QID itself is right at the bottom of a pretty impressive supporting trendline.

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hefeiddd

五月 01, 2009 - 07:30 上午Shorting EnergyI'm a bit fixated on the withering volume in OIH and what appears to be a very low-risk shorting point on USO. I have shorted a large OIH position at 91.54 today. Here's USO for a change of pace.........

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五月 01, 2009 - 06:46 上午Our Man in BasraHappy New Month, everyone. Let's hope this one is a little more chart-friendly!
I'll just start by saying ultra-bearish-on-bonds TBT continues to perform. I added to this position this morning.

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I'd also remind prospective parents out there...........have a heart when naming your child, OK?

hefeiddd

四月 30, 2009 - 04:07 下午We've Seen This Movie BeforeIt was nice to get a little, bitty reprieve today (in the form of a failed rally), but this is simply nothing more than a higher low in a whole string of them. So the trend remains up until such time as 838.50 is broken on the /ES. Simple as that.



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四月 30, 2009 - 01:10 下午Does This Seem a Little Vulnerable?

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hefeiddd

四月 30, 2009 - 11:45 上午Will CAKE Save Us All?What a dynamo of a company! They must have done something amazing!

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Ohhhhh. Now I see why! Can you say Culinary Breakthroughs? Yowzah!


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hefeiddd

四月 30, 2009 - 10:45 上午Couple of Low-Risk Shorts

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四月 30, 2009 - 10:12 上午Would You Dare?If you think technology is about to flip over........

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Would you dare to take the plunge?

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hefeiddd

四月 30, 2009 - 09:06 上午Turning Your World Upside DownLast night, a Sloper suggested I just "turn charts upside down" to deal better with markets like this. From your lips to God's ears!
Check out this new feature we prototyped last night (quick, ain't we?) Here's the regular chart.

And a Ctrl-U will flip that bad boy around.

Supremely cool, isn't it? Bwa ha ha.


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hefeiddd

四月 30, 2009 - 07:39 上午Any Thoughts on OIH's Shrinking Volume?

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What's bothersome about this kind of thing is, I suppose, what bothers a lot of people about Elliott Wave Analysis, which is..........any given interpretation always had an opposite alternate, and if things don't go your way, then you just switch to the alternate without appearing to have really changed horses midstream. In other words, I Am Right Until I Am Wrong. So the ending diagonal which has had everyone (including me) all atwitter is now simply a mistake.
I've been beating the S&P 1,050 drum pretty much since drums were invented, but I am shocked, baffled, surprised, and slack-jawed that it's getting there without one stinking pause. Not one. It just keeps going up.


I will note that today's high was just a hair below the Fibonacci retracement, which is the latest flimsy barrier the bears have erected (this one made up of wet toilet paper and a couple of twigs that were found laying on the ground). It would take a good sneeze to blow it down.

hefeiddd

四月 29, 2009 - 10:27 上午Danger ZoneI'm sure every bull whose has read the first two chapters of a technical analysis book is salivating over the prospect of a break above 880, whose measured targeted would be ~1080 on the S&P.



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hefeiddd

四月 29, 2009 - 09:21 上午Pig OutSo is the 500% explosion higher in Applebee's parent company in the span of a few weeks really justified?

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Oh. Wait. Never mind.


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hefeiddd

四月 29, 2009 - 08:36 上午Some Stocks I'm (sigh...) Buying

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hefeiddd

四月 29, 2009 - 07:47 上午BullisherWell, charts don't lie, and I'm afraid they're looking more bullish all the time. I've mitigated the damage with some big energy longs. It's pretty interesting that the GDP would come in on the low end and everyone would be celebrating. I guess it's inevitable that Q2 to Q1 comparisons for 2009, when they ultimately come out, will be very favorable. In any event, if the FOMC pushes the bulls into a follow-through above 880, it's all over for the bears for now.

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四月 29, 2009 - 06:55 上午Energy BreakoutI'm really liking my long positions on energy these days. OIH and USO are my favorites.

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I'm using a stop of 87.84 on my OIH long.


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