一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

My puts are strictly on the $RUT, and the position isn't that huge. I might even take it off the table thanks to almost assured Fed wackiness Tuesday at 2:15 EST. As for the $NDX, I'm keeping a close eye on this one to see if it marches toward the fanline above or snaps its ways down to the line below.

Original
• Present

The Russell 2000 - - awww, should I even say it? - - OK, my apologies - - is in the formative stages of the mother of all patterns. There is huge debate about whether there's another push higher in the cards (S&P 1320) or if we've had that run already. Search me.

Original
• Present

I've got a handful of ideas for you, some of them new. Here's Ace, Ltd.

hefeiddd

I've got a handful of ideas for you, some of them new. Here's Ace, Ltd.

Original
• Present

CEG looks like another H&S.

Original
• Present

I have no position in FNM, but this stock sure doesn't look done falling. Don't you think a disaster is going to happen here? Doesn't it seem like its fate is sealed, bailout or not? Just sayin'.

hefeiddd

I have no position in FNM, but this stock sure doesn't look done falling. Don't you think a disaster is going to happen here? Doesn't it seem like its fate is sealed, bailout or not? Just sayin'.

Original
• Present

I sold my POT put for a huge profit today, but only because it was an August put (my only one left) and I get very jumpy owning options in the same calendar month as they expire. If this strengthens back to 200 or so, I'll jump right in again.

Original
• Present

SGMS burned me just a little recently, but I'm still watching this pattern with great interest.

hefeiddd

SGMS burned me just a little recently, but I'm still watching this pattern with great interest.

Original
• Present

The energy sector is stuffed with issues that have broken huge trendlines. I like RIG.

Original
• Present

Finally, here's another clip from Don Harrold. I feel a kinship with Don since (a) he gets really ticked off at B.S. (b) he gets paid $0.00 to reveal it to the world. Go, Don, go!

hefeiddd

七月 18, 2008 - 01:18 下午Last Post of the WeekI'm going to hang it up early today. It's been another great week. I'm getting ready to leave for a week-long trip with my family. I'll probably manage to do one post a day during my vacation. Until then, I leave you with these charts, which I consider an interesting fount of ideas. Thank you, and enjoy a pleasant weekend!

Original
• Present

Original
• Present

Original
• Present

hefeiddd

Original
• Present

Original
• Present

Original
• Present

hefeiddd

Original
• Present

Original
• Present

Original
• Present

hefeiddd

Original
• Present

Original
• Present

Original
• Present

hefeiddd

Original
• Present

Original
• Present

Original
• Present

hefeiddd

Original
• Present

Original
• Present

Original
• Present

Original
• Present

See you on Monday..........

Posted: 01:18 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
ACE (4)

hefeiddd

三月 24, 2009 - 08:40 上午Short Ideas (1 of 3)

Original
• Present

Original
• Present

Original
• Present

hefeiddd

Original
• Present

Posted: 08:40 上午 | 39 insightful comments | Permalink

hefeiddd

十月 29, 2008 - 11:37 下午Contractual ObligationOK, it's going to be one of those nights where I just blew it in blogland. It's nearly midnight, and I still haven't done a "real" post for the day. Grumble......
It's by no means a sure thing, but I think there's a decent change of a strong up day on Thursday; if the GDP fits the "not so horrible" category, we could "launch" another Fibonacci level higher. Now, looking at NQ and ES at this very moment, ES looks vulnerable and NQ looks like a launch candidate. Of course, these two are going to move the same direction once the GDP is announced, so I'm flat on both, since there's simply no clarity right now.

Original
• Present

In spite of the Dow being in the eight-thousands, there are still good shorting opportunities, if you are so inclined. Here are a few graphs that represent good bearish configurations (and there are plenty of others).

Original
• Present

Original
• Present

Original
• Present

hefeiddd

Original
• Present

The most bullish zone I see right now is in the realm of energy.This crude oil graph looks ready to bounce much higher. The high 70s is virtually a foregone conclusion, and $95 is a better-than-average possibility. I'm going to hang on to my bevy of energy longs for a while.

Original
• Present

That's going to be it for me for now. I'll be back in front of the screen in a few hours.

Posted: 11:37 下午 | 71 insightful comments | Permalink

ACGL (2)

hefeiddd

六月 19, 2008 - 05:08 上午Crosseyed and PainlessOh, Lawdy, Lawdy. I went to bed at 2:45 a.m. Wednesday morning, having packed for hours. I had to get up at 4:00 a.m. to get ready for the trip. Off the plane goes at 6 a.m. Change planes in Salt Lake City. Arrive here in Baltimore. And it's past midnight, and I'm still up, looking at charts. Gawd. (Update: Errr, I collapsed in a heap at 12:30 and got up at 6:30 to resume........sorry!)

During the aforementioned layover, I was pleased to see the Dow was down 95 when I got off the plane. Soon after, it was down 125. When I got back on the plane, it was down only 65. I had, during the layout, tightened up stops and trimmed index puts a little. But I'm glad I didn't get too aggressive with tightening stops. The action today was spastic, and I was relieved when I finally landed (after the market had closed) to see the Dow was down over 130. The chart of the $NDX below shows how, in the course of one day, the market was just all over the place. It looks like one of those contrived wall charts you see drawn as background in one-panel cartoons.

Original
• Present

I'm starting to get a little cautious in my immediate-term bearishness based on the Dow approaching the rising trendline you see below, which indicates the higher lows that have been established through the course of 2008. I'd feel a lot more comfortable seeing this trendline broken. We're very close to it now, which could mean another bounce.

Original
• Present

The $COMPQ is more clear, with a relatively clean path down for about another 100 points (barring any general market strength!) The 2325 level seems to be the next logical resting place.

hefeiddd

The $COMPQ is more clear, with a relatively clean path down for about another 100 points (barring any general market strength!) The 2325 level seems to be the next logical resting place.

Original
• Present

As for the more narrow $NDX, provided we stay below 2,000, I'm comfortably bearish.

Original
• Present

The Russell 2000 has a bit of support at the dotted red line you see drawn around $718. We'll need to break that in order to have some downward momentum. I'd say doing so would clear a path to about the $670 level.

hefeiddd

The Russell 2000 has a bit of support at the dotted red line you see drawn around $718. We'll need to break that in order to have some downward momentum. I'd say doing so would clear a path to about the $670 level.

Original
• Present

Adding to my cautiousness is the $OEX, which is approaching a big Fibonacci retracement level. The move from 660 to about 600 may be all this has to offer in the medium-term.

Original
• Present

I like the pattern AAPL is carving out, with a retracement to a major trendline completed and a dainty series of lower lows and lower highs over the past six weeks. My target here is around $161.

hefeiddd

I like the pattern AAPL is carving out, with a retracement to a major trendline completed and a dainty series of lower lows and lower highs over the past six weeks. My target here is around $161.

Original
• Present

CAT is looked good, too, having failed to complete a bullish breakout in May and now slipping away from its 2008 trendline, drawn in red here.

Original
• Present

Coach has been a favorite short position of mine, and it will get to be even more favorite if it pushes past the green trendline shown below. That would be a pretty important break.

hefeiddd

Coach has been a favorite short position of mine, and it will get to be even more favorite if it pushes past the green trendline shown below. That would be a pretty important break.

Original
• Present

I'm an idiot for having puts in ACI. Trying to guess when a momentum stock has topped out is lunacy. Shame on me. I bet I get stopped out of this one today.

Original
• Present

I'm less of an idiot for my CEG short position, which has a major broken trendline and general downward movement for the past seven months in its favor.

hefeiddd

I'm less of an idiot for my CEG short position, which has a major broken trendline and general downward movement for the past seven months in its favor.

Original
• Present

One of the most valuable lessons I've learned from the readers of this blog is to stay short on weak securities (sounds obvious, but I have always had such a penchant for trying to bring down crazy momentum players, this is somewhat of a revelation). The fact is that battered issues tend to get more battered, and I'm experiencing that with SHLD. I am simply going to keep hanging onto this.

Original
• Present

On Tuesday I pointed out the broadening top in VMI. The next day, this stock really had the air taken out of it.