一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

I'm pressed for time now, so no time for commentary. I'm just going to throw charts your way. Here are some stocks from my current holdings on which I own puts and feel pretty good about (tip of the hat to ISRG today; you took away all the pain and more from my GOOG put).

Original
• Present

Original
• Present

Original
• Present

hefeiddd

Original
• Present

Original
• Present

Original
• Present

hefeiddd

Original
• Present

Original
• Present

Original
• Present

Original
• Present

hefeiddd

Original
• Present

Original
• Present

Original
• Present

hefeiddd

Original
• Present

Original
• Present

Original
• Present

hefeiddd

Original
• Present

Original
• Present

Original
• Present

hefeiddd

Original
• Present

Original
• Present

Original
• Present

hefeiddd

Original
• Present

Original
• Present

That's it from me. In contrast to last Friday (when GE got torpedoed), this week was suck-o-roony. I truly hope next week is better. Until then, I bid you farewell!

Posted: 03:58 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink

hefeiddd

四月 03, 2008 - 03:38 下午Don't Dream It's OverSo we wait. And wait, and wait, and wait.
My expectation, naturally, is that we can resume the party sometime soon. I sure hope so. If we have another big pop like Tuesday, we could be really hosed for a while. At the moment, the market has returned to its complacent recess period, which it seems to do every ten weeks or so. I've highlighted on the $VIX chart below these "time out" periods before we bears can start to have fun again. It's a drag.

The IWM remains tantalizing (or terrifying) close to its resistance line. I'll be sweating this one out at 5:30 a.m. Friday when the employment numbers hit. Of course, now that the market has returned to its bizarre way of embracing horrible news, it's hard to imagine any employment report that would be anything but positive. Citicorp could declare bankruptcy, and its stock would double instantly, given the logic of the market these days. Witness the surge this week on UBS after its $14 billion writeoff.


The Dow 30, likewise, is twiddling around the 12,700 area, waiting for a break in either direction. I am bellying about the market a lot right now, but honestly, if we're still in the midst of a bear market, there is never a better time than now to be gobbling up puts, because in retrospect they will look dirt cheap.

hefeiddd

The Dow 30, likewise, is twiddling around the 12,700 area, waiting for a break in either direction. I am bellying about the market a lot right now, but honestly, if we're still in the midst of a bear market, there is never a better time than now to be gobbling up puts, because in retrospect they will look dirt cheap.


One chart which scares me a bit is the Transports. This has a well-defined inverted head and shoulders pattern. Of course, this pattern isn't exactly at the bottom of a long, multi-year downturn, which would make it exciting for bulls. The pattern is there, yes, but typically these things are explosive after a market's value has been ground down to absurdly cheap levels. In this instance, it may pop, but I doubt it would rise to the 6,000 point level that is suggested by traditional measurement techniques.


Now, a few stocks. I've actually turned bearish on gold. It stinks that the XAU's options are so thinly traded, so I have to stick with stuff like ABX instead, on which I bought puts today.

hefeiddd

Now, a few stocks. I've actually turned bearish on gold. It stinks that the XAU's options are so thinly traded, so I have to stick with stuff like ABX instead, on which I bought puts today.


ACL is enticing. It's got a clean stop at around $155, and a break below that horizontal line at $128 would be sensational.


CEPH is a terrific little graph. The neckline, as I've pointed out before, has a tilt to it, but the stop price couldn't be cleaner.

hefeiddd

CEPH is a terrific little graph. The neckline, as I've pointed out before, has a tilt to it, but the stop price couldn't be cleaner.


I got back into ICE today, too (puts, naturally). The $155 stop price is a few bucks off, but I'm willing to be a little early.


As for the investment banks, they still don't know what to do with themselves. I've got puts on JPM's gigantic megaphone pattern. To me, the likelihood of this stock goer lower far exceed its chances of going higher.

hefeiddd

As for the investment banks, they still don't know what to do with themselves. I've got puts on JPM's gigantic megaphone pattern. To me, the likelihood of this stock goer lower far exceed its chances of going higher.



Good night, everyone. I'm exhausted......time for some rest!
Posted: 03:38 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink

hefeiddd

三月 29, 2008 - 04:57 下午Weekend ReviewHappy weekend, everyone. I had a terrific trading week, and although I'm still concerned that we're between a rock and a hard place in the markets (in the middle, uncertain what is coming next), there's nothing I can do to change it, so I'm just doing the best I'm able.
The task before us is plain (again, not that we can do anything about it): push beneath the "shelf of support" ranging from 645 to 680. Do that, and it's an all-clear for the bears.


The problem is that you can look at the activity on the IWM and construct a bullish or a bearish argument out of it. One could take the past 60 days of the IWM and plausibly state that we've just done a retracement back to a cup with handle breakout, and it's ready to blast higher to new highs for 2008.


Yet one could take the exact same graph and say that the broad downtrend is still very much intact (the red line below shows resistance) and the brief rally has been broken, retraced, and has now failed (the green line).

hefeiddd

Yet one could take the exact same graph and say that the broad downtrend is still very much intact (the red line below shows resistance) and the brief rally has been broken, retraced, and has now failed (the green line).


I lightened up quite a bit on index holdings due to this uncertainty and am more weighted to sectors I think are more cleanly ripe for a fall, such as oil services.


I've mentioned Apple a few times (all of the following are stocks on which I own put options). The resistance level is super clean.

hefeiddd

I've mentioned Apple a few times (all of the following are stocks on which I own put options). The resistance level is super clean.


ACL seems to be wrapping up a nice topping pattern.


I've had ANF for a little while, and on Friday it finally started moving.

hefeiddd

I've had ANF for a little while, and on Friday it finally started moving.


APA is a higher risk play, due to its strength, but any weakness in oil could make for a juicy 20 point drop (and thus a huge jump in the option value).


Ah, our old friend Chipotle is back. I haven't played this in a while, but I'm ready to rumble again.

hefeiddd

Ah, our old friend Chipotle is back. I haven't played this in a while, but I'm ready to rumble again.


I haven't done anything with GENZ in years, but I've got puts on this since the pattern is mildly interesting.


Lastly, CEPH really has me intrigued. The neckline isn't straight across, but that doesn't bother me. I have big hopes for this one!

Lastly, CEPH really has me intrigued. The neckline isn't straight across, but that doesn't bother me. I have big hopes for this one!


We've got a new puppy in the house, so I'd better go romp some more. See you Monday.

Posted: 04:57 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink

hefeiddd

三月 26, 2008 - 03:03 下午Looking BetterOK, I am a fast typist (Sure, you want a piece of me? I'll take you on!), but I am nervously eying my battery indicator since I only have a few minutes of juice left. Start the tense music!
Today was a pretty good day. Our friend the Fibonacci continued to scare the IWM away. Hold that line!

Volume continues to shrivel, though. Do you realize today's IWM volume was one THIRD of what it was back on March 14th.

All that matters to me, though, is that we continue to carve out a series of lower highs and lower highs. Given that, we can rest assured we can trade bearishly and profitably. Violate that trend, and I get grumpy.

Since I am frantically trying to get this post done before my laptop goes kaflooie, I will simply post a few of my favorite positions now, without comment. I have puts on all of these. You can tell they tend to be retracements, by and large. I hope some of you yield some good ideas from these examples!

hefeiddd

Since I am frantically trying to get this post done before my laptop goes kaflooie, I will simply post a few of my favorite positions now, without comment. I have puts on all of these. You can tell they tend to be retracements, by and large. I hope some of you yield some good ideas from these examples!