一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

十一月 04, 2008 - 09:56 上午Sell Filled Gaps?Some of the stocks I bought last week are up thirty to forty percent. Some of them are "keepers", but some were simply opportunistic. AEM is an example of the latter.

Original
• Present

Interpreting gaps is a weak area for me, but my inclination is to sell at this point, given that the gap has indeed been filled. I suppose the stock might have more upside, but given my belief that stocks will start selling off hard around Thursday, I'd rather be safe than sorry.



Posted: 09:56 上午 | 19 insightful comments | Permalink

hefeiddd

九月 14, 2008 - 06:16 上午Getting Ready for the Gold/Energy ShortSo, I wonder what cuteness the Feds are going to pull this weekend? Use taxpayer dollars to bail out Lehman? Send everyone a $2,000 check they can spend at WalMart? Cut interest rates to 0%? Make short-selling illegal? You just never know.
Everything is waiting to see what happens to LEH, of course. With only 365 cents left to its share price, there's not much left to fall.

Original
• Present

This last posting of the week is going to be somewhat different - - I'm not going to provide any opinion on the broad market. Instead, I'm going to offer a "theme" to invest. Specifically - - re-entering short positions on the energy/gold sector (I think of them as one sector these days, strange as that may sound). My narrative is pretty simple. I think the EUR/USD, which has been firming up, won't get much past the ~1.43 level, tinted below.

Original
• Present

Here's a closer look. As you can see, the retracement level is just about at 1.435.

Original
• Present

Simultaneously, I think OIH (which has firmed up most of this week) also won't be able to get past about 170 (I don't rule out that it won't get much farther at all; I simply think all this stuff has a bit further to climb).

hefeiddd

Simultaneously, I think OIH (which has firmed up most of this week) also won't be able to get past about 170 (I don't rule out that it won't get much farther at all; I simply think all this stuff has a bit further to climb).

Original
• Present

And, finally, gold/silver (as I measure via the $XAU index) won't get past the mid-130s (thanks, by the way, to giggity for the PAAS suggestion since I expressed an interest in going long silver; it was up nearly 10% today).

Original
• Present

Having said all that, I think there are a bevy of short/put-buying opportunities. Some of these I've already entered; some I plan to enter next week. Here are some favorites:

hefeiddd

Having said all that, I think there are a bevy of short/put-buying opportunities. Some of these I've already entered; some I plan to enter next week. Here are some favorites:

Original
• Present

Original
• Present

Original
• Present

hefeiddd

Original
• Present

Original
• Present

Original
• Present

hefeiddd

Original
• Present

Original
• Present

Original
• Present

hefeiddd

Original
• Present

Original
• Present

Original
• Present

And I'll close this week out with a bizarre 4+ minutes with Bill Gates and Jerry Seinfeld, which was just released this week. Actually, I think it's pretty funny. Adios!


06:16 上午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink

hefeiddd

九月 02, 2008 - 03:31 下午Utter Rally FailureToday went very well. I was somewhat concerned before the market opened, because the buying public seems to have swallowed the notion "oil down=equities up" hook, line, and sinker. The Dow blasted higher, soaring over 200 points as oil and gold got pummeled.
It didn't take me long to realize I was going to be OK. About an hour into the trading day, the Dow was still up 170 points, but my portfolio was up handsomely. It is a very, very good sign for a bear to have a lot of green in the portfolio in the face of 170 points up on the Dow. So, naturally, when the Dow actually lost every single point of its gain and went into the red. my portfolio went from green to mega-green. It was an awesome day.
I've been talking about the Euro's fall for weeks now. Maybe we're in for a pause at around the 1.44 level.

Original
• Present

The broken trendline, first pierced in mid-August, is proving to be critically important. As good as today was, things are going to get sensational until we can break this series of higher lows.

Original
• Present

The "watched pot" of $UTIL isn't boiling yet, but it's getting there. I love this chart!

hefeiddd

The "watched pot" of $UTIL isn't boiling yet, but it's getting there. I love this chart!

Original
• Present

Check out the honkin' big bearish engulfing pattern on the $COMPQ. It is noteworthy that there is no similar series of higher lows here - - - today marked the lowest price in weeks.

Original
• Present

As for how much farther gold will keep falling, that's hard for me to say; looking at $XAU, it was almost too easy calling for a plunge when it was at $155 last week. Judging by these lines, another $10 down looks very likely.

hefeiddd

As for how much farther gold will keep falling, that's hard for me to say; looking at $XAU, it was almost too easy calling for a plunge when it was at $155 last week. Judging by these lines, another $10 down looks very likely.

Original
• Present

OIH is somewhat easier to judge. I am going to hold on to these puts until about the $165 level.

Original
• Present

I offer the following charts without additional commentary; they represent to me my favorites among my holdings right now.

hefeiddd

I offer the following charts without additional commentary; they represent to me my favorites among my holdings right now.

Original
• Present

Original
• Present

Original
• Present

hefeiddd

Original
• Present

Original
• Present

Original
• Present

hefeiddd

Original
• Present

Original
• Present

Original
• Present

hefeiddd

Original
• Present

Original
• Present

Original
• Present

hefeiddd

Original
• Present

Original
• Present

Original
• Present

hefeiddd

Original
• Present

Original
• Present

Original
• Present

The only really big economic news this week is going to be Friday morning's employment report. For me, the good news is that the plunge in oil prices excited the bulls, but it let them down. This is the kind of market we need in order to push lower - - - providing, literally, a slope of hope.

Posted: 03:31 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink

hefeiddd

八月 29, 2008 - 03:33 下午August, Die She Must........Today was a welcome relief, but it still doesn't get us over the fact that this summer's frenetic up-and-down motion is agonizing for bulls and bears alike. Even if we had a single week of a consistent downturn, I'd nail all my financial goals for the year. As it is now, I have to play offense one day, defense the next, offense the next day, defense the next. Feh!

Original
• Present

The $UTIL, which you all know I'm especially bearish on, is on the right track again. A break beneath 460 would spell doom for this index and usher in the 20% drop on which I am counting.

Original
• Present

I've got a medium-sized position on QQQQ puts; the $NDX is below its retracement line (barely) and below its fan line. Weakness in the $NDX would send it, I am supposing, about 150 points lower.

hefeiddd

I've got a medium-sized position on QQQQ puts; the $NDX is below its retracement line (barely) and below its fan line. Weakness in the $NDX would send it, I am supposing, about 150 points lower.

Original
• Present

Every technician on the planet is eyeing 1265 on the S&P. I've tinted in the key area. I know I've said it ten times already, but I'll say it again: a break beneath this level will make the job of the bears really, really simple. Until then, we remain mired in this dread battle. September, "the month of the bear", will hopefully smile kindly on us.

Original
• Present

Oil and gold look nicely poised for a tumble; I'd bank on OIH to fall to 165.

hefeiddd

Oil and gold look nicely poised for a tumble; I'd bank on OIH to fall to 165.

Original
• Present

And this ten year chart of $XAU positions this instrument for about a 20 point fall in the near term.

Original
• Present

One specific gold short I'm fond of is AEM:

hefeiddd

One specific gold short I'm fond of is AEM:

Original
• Present

The recovery in financials is starting to peter out, I think. The rally following July 15 was gigantic, but the volume is shriveling up. I repurchased puts on BAC today, and both FNM and FRE had sharp percentage drops today.

Original
• Present

What follows are a variety of charts, some of which you've seen, that I like a lot as short positions.