一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

I love what the FXI did today..........nailing both a descending trendline and the underside of its broken upward trendline. I bought puts on this at the circled price point.


I guess I'm a little bullish on gold right now. I picked up some calls on ABX and a couple of other stocks.


I have no position on AGN yet, but I'm keeping an eye on this one. I'd love to buy some puts if the price got to about $61 or so, which is pretty close

hefeiddd

I have no position on AGN yet, but I'm keeping an eye on this one. I'd love to buy some puts if the price got to about $61 or so, which is pretty close.


After such a crappy day, it's time for a belly laugh. Enjoy.


  Posted: 02:30 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink
AGN (5)

hefeiddd

十月 20, 2008 - 05:31 上午Some Favorite AggiesI'm long quite a few agricultural-related issues (in spite of the looming threat - - on which I'm banking at least a little bit - - of a crash this week). Here are a few favorites.

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hefeiddd

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Posted: 05:31 上午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink

hefeiddd

九月 14, 2008 - 06:16 上午Getting Ready for the Gold/Energy ShortSo, I wonder what cuteness the Feds are going to pull this weekend? Use taxpayer dollars to bail out Lehman? Send everyone a $2,000 check they can spend at WalMart? Cut interest rates to 0%? Make short-selling illegal? You just never know.
Everything is waiting to see what happens to LEH, of course. With only 365 cents left to its share price, there's not much left to fall.

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This last posting of the week is going to be somewhat different - - I'm not going to provide any opinion on the broad market. Instead, I'm going to offer a "theme" to invest. Specifically - - re-entering short positions on the energy/gold sector (I think of them as one sector these days, strange as that may sound). My narrative is pretty simple. I think the EUR/USD, which has been firming up, won't get much past the ~1.43 level, tinted below.

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Here's a closer look. As you can see, the retracement level is just about at 1.435.

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Simultaneously, I think OIH (which has firmed up most of this week) also won't be able to get past about 170 (I don't rule out that it won't get much farther at all; I simply think all this stuff has a bit further to climb).

hefeiddd

Simultaneously, I think OIH (which has firmed up most of this week) also won't be able to get past about 170 (I don't rule out that it won't get much farther at all; I simply think all this stuff has a bit further to climb).

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And, finally, gold/silver (as I measure via the $XAU index) won't get past the mid-130s (thanks, by the way, to giggity for the PAAS suggestion since I expressed an interest in going long silver; it was up nearly 10% today).

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Having said all that, I think there are a bevy of short/put-buying opportunities. Some of these I've already entered; some I plan to enter next week. Here are some favorites:

hefeiddd

Having said all that, I think there are a bevy of short/put-buying opportunities. Some of these I've already entered; some I plan to enter next week. Here are some favorites:

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hefeiddd

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And I'll close this week out with a bizarre 4+ minutes with Bill Gates and Jerry Seinfeld, which was just released this week. Actually, I think it's pretty funny. Adios!


Posted: 06:16 上午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink

hefeiddd

九月 08, 2008 - 10:22 上午I Was Stupid to Go Long the Ags and EnergyI had said the macro trend was that ags were going to be the last bull market to collapse. I should have stuck with that. Instead, I paid too much heed to what I thought was a EUR/USD bottoming out and its potential effect. I lost some money trying to be bullish on ags and energy. Some of these have been battered a lot already, but I think there could be lots more to fall.

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Posted: 10:22 上午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink

hefeiddd

九月 02, 2008 - 03:31 下午Utter Rally FailureToday went very well. I was somewhat concerned before the market opened, because the buying public seems to have swallowed the notion "oil down=equities up" hook, line, and sinker. The Dow blasted higher, soaring over 200 points as oil and gold got pummeled.
It didn't take me long to realize I was going to be OK. About an hour into the trading day, the Dow was still up 170 points, but my portfolio was up handsomely. It is a very, very good sign for a bear to have a lot of green in the portfolio in the face of 170 points up on the Dow. So, naturally, when the Dow actually lost every single point of its gain and went into the red. my portfolio went from green to mega-green. It was an awesome day.
I've been talking about the Euro's fall for weeks now. Maybe we're in for a pause at around the 1.44 level.

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The broken trendline, first pierced in mid-August, is proving to be critically important. As good as today was, things are going to get sensational until we can break this series of higher lows.

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The "watched pot" of $UTIL isn't boiling yet, but it's getting there. I love this chart!

hefeiddd

The "watched pot" of $UTIL isn't boiling yet, but it's getting there. I love this chart!

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Check out the honkin' big bearish engulfing pattern on the $COMPQ. It is noteworthy that there is no similar series of higher lows here - - - today marked the lowest price in weeks.

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As for how much farther gold will keep falling, that's hard for me to say; looking at $XAU, it was almost too easy calling for a plunge when it was at $155 last week. Judging by these lines, another $10 down looks very likely.

hefeiddd

As for how much farther gold will keep falling, that's hard for me to say; looking at $XAU, it was almost too easy calling for a plunge when it was at $155 last week. Judging by these lines, another $10 down looks very likely.

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OIH is somewhat easier to judge. I am going to hold on to these puts until about the $165 level.

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I offer the following charts without additional commentary; they represent to me my favorites among my holdings right now.

hefeiddd

I offer the following charts without additional commentary; they represent to me my favorites among my holdings right now.

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The only really big economic news this week is going to be Friday morning's employment report. For me, the good news is that the plunge in oil prices excited the bulls, but it let them down. This is the kind of market we need in order to push lower - - - providing, literally, a slope of hope.

Posted: 03:31 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink