一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

六月 17, 2008 - 03:16 下午Flat & HappyIt seems odd to be satisfied with a minuscule gain for the day, but considering how badly I was down earlier ("thanks" to my energy-oriented shorts), I'll happily take it. With the Dow down over 100 points, there was enough green among my positions to make up for all the red from my stinkin' energy shorts. You take what you can get.
The list of stocks-that-never-seem-to-go-down is dazzling - they include AGU, ANR, CF, CMP, CRK, GDP, HK, HP, MEE, MOS, PCX, POT, PXD, and SQM. I just don't have the stomach for momentum-based trading.
The China index sported a beautiful shooting star pattern after perfectly touching the neckline of a head and shoulders pattern (tinted below in green). I like it.

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The honeymoon with LEH and GS lasted just a few hours. It seems that investment banks, having delivered news-that-isn't-too-awful, are back on a downward track.

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For four days in a row, the Transports have been unable to get above Fibonacci resistance.

hefeiddd

For four days in a row, the Transports have been unable to get above Fibonacci resistance.

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And the $NDX, on which I bought puts today, seems to be turning around smartly. I've got a stop at 2,000 on this one.

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As I've mentioned, I've been more than a little frustrated with energy issues. In spite of relative softness in crude, the OIH had a very strong day. I'm starting to trim energy positions out of disgust.

hefeiddd

As I've mentioned, I've been more than a little frustrated with energy issues. In spite of relative softness in crude, the OIH had a very strong day. I'm starting to trim energy positions out of disgust.

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Someone mentioned I don't use moving averages; that's not true. I use them occasionally, such as the graph below. Look how nicely the S&P is staying beneath its 100 day moving average; notice also how sharply it turned around after piercing the 200 day moving average (but not closing above it) in mid-May.

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I bought some SRS for the first time a couple of days ago.

hefeiddd

I bought some SRS for the first time a couple of days ago.

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Ah, yes, AGU, one of the aforementioned insane stocks. I own puts on this (unfortunately). This is one of those "ah, what the hell" trades, but I'm not optimistic. Buying puts on hyperbolic stocks is, errr, unwise.

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Many issues I have are near the top end of a descending wedge. DECK is a nice example.

hefeiddd

Many issues I have are near the top end of a descending wedge. DECK is a nice example.

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DRYS touched its Fibonacci resistance perfectly today before softening up. I bought puts.

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The same can be said with GNK, which is an even more alluring pattern.

hefeiddd

The same can be said with GNK, which is an even more alluring pattern.

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IBM is safely below its broken trendline, and I bought puts today, with a stop at $130.

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Lastly, VMI is at the top of a broadening formation. Obviously there's a lot more potential downside here than upside.

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Please note - once again! - that I am traveling for the next week (Wednesday through Tuesday), so my posts will be perhaps only once per day, and definitely late in the day. So you'll have to talk amongst yourselves. Good luck, to one and all.

Posted: 03:16 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink

hefeiddd

六月 16, 2008 - 02:14 下午Quiet DayFor those that are paying Prophet users, I'm doing a quick three-question survey on the site. If you're a Prophet user, please go ahead andsince I'm getting plans buttoned down for the next Prophet.
It was a pretty quiet day on the market. The Dow was down, but the other indexes were up, and there was really nothing on the economic or world scene to give the market any guidance. Tomorrow morning will be quite different, since there are three important economic reports hitting the wires before the market opens - Housing Starts, the PPI, and Industrial Production. (Toolbox users can see this on the new
Many of the indices, on an intraday basis, have head and shoulders pattern with retracements taking place over the course of the last couple of trading days. I've shown the S&P 500 a couple of times already. Here is the China Index, with a similar pattern:

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Lehman Brothers (LEH) announced their first quarterly loss ever as a public company this morning, and a relief rally took place among all the investment banks. I mentioned last week that I thought LEH was at a bottom, and it added as much as 30% to its price in just a couple of days. The Securities Broker/Deader index is right back to its Fibonacci level again.

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The same can be said of the Transports.

hefeiddd

The same can be said of the Transports.

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The NASDAQ Composite is safely below its major resistance level, shown in purple below. I purchased a large QQQQ put position near today's highs based on my speculation that the retracement on the NASDAQ was just about done.

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The pattern on $MSH strengthens this belief. Obviously piercing the $620 level would eliminate this point of view.

hefeiddd

The pattern on $MSH strengthens this belief. Obviously piercing the $620 level would eliminate this point of view.

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The volume today was unbelievably low. Just look at the QQQQ volume - - - this is at "holiday" levels.

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I don't have much to say about individual stocks. I got out of about 10 positions today - - some to take profits, others to cut risk - - the agricultural stocks are still on a moon trajectory.......

hefeiddd

I don't have much to say about individual stocks. I got out of about 10 positions today - - some to take profits, others to cut risk - - the agricultural stocks are still on a moon trajectory.......

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.....and I re-entered FSLR today, with a stop at $289. I let a nice profit on these puts slip away due to surprising strength, with the price cutting back above the former supporting line. Once more into the breach, dear friends.

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Tomorrow morning is almost sure to have some fireworks. I'll see you then.

Posted: 02:14 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink

hefeiddd

五月 27, 2008 - 01:44 下午Weaker Oil Provides a Bounce-Back






Gold was weak as well. I had puts on $XAU, but I sold them (at a profit) for two reasons. First, I hate being in these things. The bid/ask spread is atrocious, and even though the spread is so wide that you could drive a truck through it, I always have to take the bid price, so I always feel ripped off; and second, the price was touching that Fib fan line, and I was happy enough with my profits (up about 40% on the trade).

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All the indexes marched higher, and what's crucial, of course, is that they don't push past the highs set a little over a week ago. I'll be re-entering index puts as this climb continues, with stops set at the aforementioned highs.

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Interesting, the S&P 500 closed at precisely its Fibonacci line. This suggests this line may represent resistance, whereas before it was support (the oft-mentioned 1385 level).

hefeiddd

Interesting, the S&P 500 closed at precisely its Fibonacci line. This suggests this line may represent resistance, whereas before it was support (the oft-mentioned 1385 level).

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I have a smattering of long positions on issues that had been battered to pieces. Some of them are doing pretty well, such as symbol CPY.

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I don't focus much on the FOREX, but my conclusion from this chart is that the U.S. dollar is going to get a lot stronger soon, which is going to punish oil accordingly.

hefeiddd

I don't focus much on the FOREX, but my conclusion from this chart is that the U.S. dollar is going to get a lot stronger soon, which is going to punish oil accordingly.

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I'm off the "nothing but options" bandwagon and have a mix of (a) puts; and (b) short equity positions. I've been pushing increasingly into straight short positions of a larger size, since a lot of these downdrafts are taking a while to unfold, and I'd rather not risk the time premium loss. You can see all my holdings, as always, on the right column of this blog, but here are a few selected items; as you can see, I am hoping to take advantage of the softening-up of the formerly red-hot commodities and agricultural sectors.

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hefeiddd

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I don't have much else to say, since I've returned to "wait and see" mode with respect to the broad index markets. All three remaining days this week feature an important economic release one hour before the opening bell, so there may be some interesting fodder forthcoming.

Posted: 01:44 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink

hefeiddd

五月 22, 2008 - 04:46 下午Fat!Enough of this fat talk. You've caught me. I'm obese. Morbidly so. All the photographs you've seen recently were heavily Photoshopped. Here's the real Tim at work. May God forgive me for what I am.

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The $NDX, which is my big put position, has been marching up an ascending channel since mid-March. Breaking 1,940 would put a stop to that nonsense.

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I remain cautiously skeptical about the S&P 500. I've tinted in the bullish case.

hefeiddd

I remain cautiously skeptical about the S&P 500. I've tinted in the bullish case.

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But I also think the FOREX markets are pointing to a strengthening dollar. That will rough up the oil markets pretty good, should it happen.

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hefeiddd

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My AGU puts are doing OK and I like the prospects of this stock heading down to the low 60s.

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Akamai also had its first nice whack today. I'd be a holder of these puts down to about $30.

hefeiddd

Akamai also had its first nice whack today. I'd be a holder of these puts down to about $30.

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Here's one of my hockey stick plays - CNQ. The target price for the inverted head and shoulders was met (and exceed by a point or two), and I could easily see this getting chopped 20 points.

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I've got CAT puts with a stop at last week's high. Failed bullish breaking is my thinking here.

hefeiddd

I've got CAT puts with a stop at last week's high. Failed bullish breaking is my thinking here.

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First Solar ("fizzler") has lost 15% of its value since last week. Cracking that ascending trendline at about $250 would mean party time. Gosh, where's Beanie? Oh, I forgot. He's mute when things aren't going his way. Puss.

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I've got puts on RIMM too. Another failed bullish breakout.

hefeiddd

I've got puts on RIMM too. Another failed bullish breakout.

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Sunpower is another bearish play on solar. This stock is obviously a lot weaker technically than FSLR.

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BIDU dropping 20 points - whoo hoo! It's easy to picture another 100 points getting nuked off this baby.

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ISRG was another honey today. Just look at the price collapse away from that trendline!