一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

四月 28, 2009 - 09:11 上午Short Ideas (1 of 4)

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hefeiddd

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Posted: 09:11 上午 | 52 insightful comments | Permalink

hefeiddd

十二月 05, 2008 - 07:17 上午More Short IdeasSheesh, it's nice just to watch the profits flow in again. I was getting disgusted with this market's chops. Anyway. Here are a few more ideas.

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hefeiddd

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More later............

Posted: 07:17 上午 | 105 insightful comments | Permalink
AIT (2)

hefeiddd

四月 28, 2009 - 09:11 上午Short Ideas (1 of 4)

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hefeiddd

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Posted: 09:11 上午 | 52 insightful comments | Permalink

hefeiddd

六月 09, 2008 - 04:25 下午AAPL=Another Anticlimactic Product LaunchAfter Friday's big sell-off, equities started today off strong, but it was a very inconsistent day. At one point, in spite of the Dow being up triple digits earlier, all the major indexes were in the red (including the NASDAQ, which was down a hefty 2%). Sadly, there was late-day strength, and the Dow managed to tack on 70 points. All the same, much of the damage done on Friday was still intact.
One of the big stories today was Lehman Brothers, which I remarked on earlier today. The case for some short-term support here is decent.

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The broader brokerage picture, however, is still fairly bleak. The $XBD is down 40% from its peak, but as you can see from this graph, there's still plenty of open air beneath current prices. Another 50 points off this index seems totally plausible in 2008.

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The widely-anticipated iPhone announcement came today. I mentioned a couple of times last week what old news this was, and the classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" rule held true here. At one point, AAPL was down about 9 points. Even with the drop "only" at $4.03, this chart is more attractive than before.

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The Dow itself is a mystery to me at this point. There is much more resistance than there is support. The market just needs a catalyst. But this pattern is just a mess right now, and it's hard to see what's next.

hefeiddd

The Dow itself is a mystery to me at this point. There is much more resistance than there is support. The market just needs a catalyst. But this pattern is just a mess right now, and it's hard to see what's next.

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The $COMPQ is a little easier for me to interpret. We've got very strong resistance at 2,550, indicated by the purple line, and a drop below 2,425 would be very bearish.

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The $NDX sneaked below its support line Friday, but it plunged below it today. This line is very obviously broken at this point.

hefeiddd

The $NDX sneaked below its support line Friday, but it plunged below it today. This line is very obviously broken at this point.

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The chart below is a weekly, as opposed to the more common daily, of the Russell 2000. A drop beneath today's lows would be a very compelling bearish picture for this index, which I have not been trading for quite some time.

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My current index position is in the S&P 500, which is the cleanest chart for me to read at this point. My stops on this are set at 1406.20.

hefeiddd

My current index position is in the S&P 500, which is the cleanest chart for me to read at this point. My stops on this are set at 1406.20.

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"Fizzler" (FSLR) had another nice drop today, reaffirming how broken its former support is.

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And a similar situation can be seen with ISRG.

hefeiddd

And a similar situation can be seen with ISRG.

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AMLN, one of my equity shorts, had a nice double-digit percentage drop today.

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And I am re-attracted to real estate shorts (both individual ones and the broad IYR ETF).

hefeiddd

And I am re-attracted to real estate shorts (both individual ones and the broad IYR ETF).

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Akamai has been a slow pattern to develop, but it's looking nice.

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One of my favorite, cleanest patterns right now is CHTT, which I intend to hold into the high 40s.

hefeiddd

One of my favorite, cleanest patterns right now is CHTT, which I intend to hold into the high 40s.

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And, finally, one specific real estate short is LRY.

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After Friday's fireworks, today was a snoozer. Oh, well! Not every day can be 400 points off the Dow, can it? Good night!

Posted: 04:25 下午 | No comments! Be the first! | Permalink

hefeiddd

五月 22, 2008 - 04:46 下午Fat!Enough of this fat talk. You've caught me. I'm obese. Morbidly so. All the photographs you've seen recently were heavily Photoshopped. Here's the real Tim at work. May God forgive me for what I am.

I'm also fat with profits. Relatively speaking, at least.
It's interesting how the volume pushed much higher yesterday (during the 200+ point plunge) and shrank tremendously today with the piddling 21 point gain. (I also noticed how Marketwatch heralded this "bounce back", even though it was only 10% of the prior day's loss.)

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The $NDX, which is my big put position, has been marching up an ascending channel since mid-March. Breaking 1,940 would put a stop to that nonsense.

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I remain cautiously skeptical about the S&P 500. I've tinted in the bullish case.

hefeiddd

I remain cautiously skeptical about the S&P 500. I've tinted in the bullish case.

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But I also think the FOREX markets are pointing to a strengthening dollar. That will rough up the oil markets pretty good, should it happen.

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hefeiddd

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My AGU puts are doing OK and I like the prospects of this stock heading down to the low 60s.

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Akamai also had its first nice whack today. I'd be a holder of these puts down to about $30.

hefeiddd

Akamai also had its first nice whack today. I'd be a holder of these puts down to about $30.

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Here's one of my hockey stick plays - CNQ. The target price for the inverted head and shoulders was met (and exceed by a point or two), and I could easily see this getting chopped 20 points.

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I've got CAT puts with a stop at last week's high. Failed bullish breaking is my thinking here.

hefeiddd

I've got CAT puts with a stop at last week's high. Failed bullish breaking is my thinking here.

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First Solar ("fizzler") has lost 15% of its value since last week. Cracking that ascending trendline at about $250 would mean party time. Gosh, where's Beanie? Oh, I forgot. He's mute when things aren't going his way. Puss.

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I've got puts on RIMM too. Another failed bullish breakout.

hefeiddd

I've got puts on RIMM too. Another failed bullish breakout.

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Sunpower is another bearish play on solar. This stock is obviously a lot weaker technically than FSLR.

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BIDU dropping 20 points - whoo hoo! It's easy to picture another 100 points getting nuked off this baby.

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ISRG was another honey today. Just look at the price collapse away from that trendline!

hefeiddd

Having said that, there are a number of issues which seem to have experienced fundamental breakdowns and, in spite of today's strength, seem to simply be setting up for another fall (already). Here are a couple of examples.

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Remember when I used to do just five posts in an entire week? This blog has become a bit out of control, and I'm doing more like 40 a week now! Yowie, I really need to get my life back.