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发表于 2009-9-2 08:44
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另一个观点
今天下跌的借口Goldman Sachs Wrong on Economic Recovery, Macro Hedge Funds Say
俺觉得这是今天下跌的一个重要借口
Goldman Sachs Wrong on Economic Recovery, Macro Hedge Funds Say
By Cristina Alesci
Sept. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Paul Tudor Jones, the billionaire hedge-fundmanager who outperformed peers last year, is wagering that GoldmanSachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley got it wrong in declaring the startof an economic recovery.
Jones’s Tudor Investment Corp., Clarium Capital Management LLC andHorseman Capital Management Ltd. are taking a bearish stand as U.S.stock and bond prices rise, saying that record government spending maybe forestalling another slowdown and market selloff. The firms overseea combined $15 billion in so- called macro funds, which seek to profitfrom economic trends by trading stocks, bonds, currencies andcommodities.
“If we have a recovery at all, it isn’t sustainable,” Kevin Harrington,managing director at Clarium, said in an interview at the firm’s NewYork offices. “This is more likely a ski-jump recession, withshort-term stimulus creating a bump that will ultimately lead to a moreprecipitous decline later.”
Equity and credit markets have rallied on hopes that governmentintervention is pulling the U.S. out of the deepest economic slumpsince the Great Depression. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index jumped51 percent from its 12-year low in March through yesterday.
The economy will expand at an annualized rate of 2 percent or more infour straight quarters through June 2010, the first such streak in morethan four years, according to the median estimate of at least 53forecasters in a Bloomberg survey.
Tudor, the Greenwich, Connecticut-based firm started by Jones in theearly 1980s, told clients in an Aug. 3 letter that the stock market’sclimb was a “bear-market rally.” Weak growth in household income wasamong the reasons to be dubious about the rebound’s chances ofsurvival, Tudor said.
Yields Drop
Yields on corporate bonds relative to U.S. Treasury benchmarks havesunk to levels unseen since before the collapse of Lehman BrothersHoldings Inc. in September, a positive sign for credit markets. Spreadson junk bonds fell in July to within 10 percentage points ofTreasuries, lifting them out of the distressed category for the firsttime in almost a year.
“We think the recession is ending right now,” Abby Joseph Cohen, seniorinvestment strategist at Goldman Sachs, said in a Bloomberg Radiointerview Aug. 17. The New York-based bank forecasts 2 percent growthin U.S. gross domestic product in 2010.
Economists at New York-based Morgan Stanley in the past month haveincrementally raised their GDP growth estimate for the current quarterto 4.8 percent annualized from 3.5 percent.
President Barack Obama said a decline in July’s unemployment ratesignaled “the worst may be behind us.” GDP shrank 6.4 percent in thefirst quarter and 1 percent in the second, after a 4 percentcontraction in the second half of 2008.
Different Jobless Rate
A focus on misleading indicators is driving markets, macro managers say.
Clarium watches the unemployment rate that accounts for discouraged jobapplicants and those working part-time because they can’t findfull-time positions, Harrington said. July joblessness with thoseadjustments was 16 percent, according to the Department of Labor,rather than the more widely reported 9.4 percent.
The housing data isn’t as rosy as some see it, Harrington said. Asexisting U.S. home sales rose 7.2 percent in July from the previousmonth, distressed deals including foreclosures accounted for 31 percentof transactions, according to the National Association of Realtors, aChicago-based trade group.
A report by the Mortgage Bankers Association, based in Washington,showed the share of home loans with one or more payments overdue roseto a seasonally adjusted 9.24 percent in the second quarter, anall-time high.
Loaded for Bear
Clarium, which oversees about $2 billion, is positioned for an equitybear market through investments in the U.S. dollar, Harrington said.Falling stock prices will strengthen the currency by forcing leveragedinvestors to sell equities to pay down the dollar-denominated debt theyused to finance those trades, he said.
High unemployment, lower wages and potential missteps by policymakersaround the globe may stifle economic growth in 2010, Tudor said. Thefirm, which manages $10.8 billion, is at odds with 55 economistsprojecting an average of 2.3 percent growth next year, according to theBloomberg survey.
Macro managers’ pessimism is fueled in part by the U.S. government’sresponse to last year’s financial crisis, which they say fails toaddress the root cause. Banks still hold hard- to-sell assets on theirbalance sheets, the managers said.
Subdued Credit Growth
“Some critical initiatives have been cut short,” Tudor said. “As aresult, toxic assets remain on balance sheets and credit growth islikely to be subdued for a long period.”
Some firms, including Brevan Howard Asset Management LLP, see therecession at its end while dismissing the likelihood of robust growth.
Brevan Howard, Europe’s largest hedge-fund manager with $24 billion inassets, told clients the U.S. could stumble when stimulus spendingfades after the current quarter. The London- based firm, whose macrofund gained 20 percent last year, said consumer wealth erosion, scantbank lending and troubled world economies may result in a lacklusterrecovery.
The U.S. Federal Reserve and other policy makers took unprecedentedsteps in the past year to stave off financial disaster. The Fed’s Boardof Governors used emergency powers to rescue markets for commercialpaper, housing bonds and asset- backed securities. The Fed’s balancesheet swelled to $2.08 trillion last week, more than doubling from ayear earlier.
Accounting Effect
The Financial Accounting Standards Board voted in April to relaxfair-value accounting rules. The change to mark-to-market accountingallowed companies to use “significant” judgment in gauging prices ofsome investments on their books, including mortgage-backed securitiesthat plunged with the housing market.
Banks are reporting better earnings because they haven’t been forced to account for their losses yet, Clarium’s Harrington said.
“We haven’t fixed the problem,” he said. “We’ve just slowed down the official recognition of it.”
Hedge funds rose in July for the fifth consecutive month, returning anaverage of 2.4 percent as stocks advanced, according to data compiledby Hedge Fund Research Inc. Bearish stances prevented some macro fundsfrom joining the rally. The category lagged behind the industry averagein July, rising 0.6 percent.
Fund Performance
Clarium, whose assets were mostly in fixed income, dropped 6 percentthis year through June. Horseman’s fund slid 16.3 percent. Tudor’s BVIGlobal Fund Ltd. returned 11 percent.
The funds held up in 2008 amid the industry’s record 19 percent loss.Horseman’s Global Fund USD, which focuses on stocks, made HSBC’sprivate bank list of top 20 performers by gaining 31 percent. Tudor’sand Clarium’s funds fell 4.5 percent.
Macro managers are examining China for hints on how to place currencyand commodities bets. Tudor said the country’s spending spree on rawmaterials inflated commodity prices and weakened the U.S. dollar.
A government mandate forcing banks to make about $1 trillion in loansduring this year’s first half is spurring short-term growth that maynot last, according to Clarium. China’s banking regulator draftedcapital requirements Aug. 19 that may lead banks to rein in lending.
Horseman, with $4.1 billion under management out of London, wasinvesting in long-term U.S. Treasury bonds. The firm believes interestrates will stay low for longer than the market expects, benefiting theasset class.
“Despite every effort by government in North America and Europe toavoid deflation,” Horseman wrote, “the current numbers suggest they arelosing the battle.” |
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发表于 2009-9-2 08:41
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