上证 => ~740! possible => ~380

biobuck

上证 => ~740! possible => ~380

来自：MACD论坛(bbs.shudaoyoufang.com) 作者：biobuck 浏览：2869 回复：18

Remeber you heard it here first!  :-)

Disclaimer:  I don't trade any chinese stocks.  This is purely for fun.   

Long term:  Down
Intermedium Term:  Down (resistance1325-1350)
Short term: Up (resistance ~1250).  Typical bear market rally is generally fast and short.  

Head & Shoulder target is ~380.  The chart says so.  

I don't get any volume info here so I can't do any volume related analysis.  Sorry!

Good Luck with your trading!

静静地流逝

危言耸听吧？

水一瓢

Originally posted by biobuck at 2005-6-10 09:20
Remeber you heard it here first!  :-)

Disclaimer:  I don't trade any chinese stocks.  This is purely for fun.   

Long term:  Down
Intermedium Term:  Down (resistance1325-1350)
Short term: ...

不要进行中国股票的交易？长期趋势向下这里只是反弹  典型的头肩顶  目标  720  或者 380 ？



我不知道您在国外（霉国）一年的总资金收溢是多少？

就算是巴非特也不过是 25%   这样的目标我在几个月以前就已经达到了。

既然你不想和我们交流 就不要发贴告诉我们了，以免误导大家。

请尊重大家 以后尽量用中文，不会就学会了再来吧。呵呵。

spjoe

What kind of software you are using?

biobuck

"就算是巴非特也不过是 25%   这样的目标我在几个月以前就已经达到了"
Congratulations!  YOU are BETTER than 巴非特!!!
hahah  How about a screen shot of your gain to prove to us that you are not bragging here!!!

"既然你不想和我们交流 就不要发贴告诉我们了，以免误导大家。"
If you can't objectively take any opposition opinions, you shouldn't be here.  I AM here to exchange idea with you guys.  What is heck the post for?  Wake the heck up!

"我不知道您在国外（霉国）一年的总资金收溢是多少？"
It is none of your frigging business anyway.  Go ask Mr. 巴非特 how much money he made personally last year?   Do you think you can get an answer?  Haven't you heard of the expression of "a half bottle of vinegar"? Haha  If you can back up your claim with a screen shot, I will show you a screen shot of my daily account fluctuation to give you some idea about my trading activity.  Deal?

Good Luck on your trading!

Remeber to come back to visit this post 6 month or 1 yr later please!  I will be waiting for you!!!

[ Last edited by biobuck on 2005-6-10 at 10:32 ]

biobuck

Originally posted by spjoe at 2005-6-10 10:02
What kind of software you are using?

Metastock 9.0 & www.stockcharts.com

Good luck with your trading!

假肥猫

得，来了个羊鬼。

wfliu

Hi biobuck :*22*:
I am a new player and just use MetaStock 9.0. Many questions need to seek answers. but nobody discuss with me. Can you teach me ? If yes, please drop an email to "nathan6498@hotmail.com" when you feel free.
Thanks
Nathan Liu :*4*:

biobuck

Originally posted by wfliu at 2005-6-10 23:16
Hi biobuck :*22*:
I am a new player and just use MetaStock 9.0. Many questions need to seek answers. but nobody discuss with me. Can you teach me ? If yes, please drop an email to "[email]nat ...

I have a hotmail acount too with the same ID as here.  Email me with your questions and I will try my best to help you out.  

Good Luck with your trading!

biobuck

风里飞侠

Short term: Up (resistance ~1250).  我也同意,到时候看量的配合.
RSI周K线长期若势.
下一波为1250~880(1783*0.5,  2245*0.382)

纪律2004

I agree with you idea with target 1 740, but 380 will not possible in 10 years. In chinese stocks we should not spend more money on shares except few companies that is realy talks to general inveters.

纪律2004

since from 1996 I lleft Shanghai stocks, I had not any shares alomost 10 years, but as soon as the index bottomed out 740, i will be become a new player in market again.

biobuck

Originally posted by 纪律2004 at 2005-6-11 18:11
I agree with you idea with target 1 740, but 380 will not possible in 10 years. In chinese stocks we should not spend more money on shares except few companies that is realy talks to general inveters.

380 appears very unlikely and could take a few years. But in the stock market I have learned my lessen well.

Example:  When Nasdaq were at 5000 making a double top in 2000,  I exited the market and advised my friends at work to  move their money and 401 k  retirement fund out of the market.  Of course they did not believe me and asked me what the targets for the "correction" would be.  The following is what I projected then and my estimate of the possibility of that happening!

Target 1:  ~4200.. likelyhood  70%
Target 2: ~3700 ..              ~ 50%
Target 3: ~2200 ..              ~ 10%
Target 4: ~1600 ..              ~ 1% (you would be considered an idiot by everyone at the time to predict this! My broker friend said the market will NEVER come down to 3700.)

The Nasadq bottomed finally in 2003 at ~ 1200.  The lessen, the market will do the unexpected and will always surprsie YOU!  Just be prepared and have a plan ready if it happens.  

By the way, my coworkers did come to me for advise when nasdaq hit 3700.  From then on they have truested me like GOD. heheh ;-) Because my advise has saved and made a lot money for them from then on.    Reading charts is not my regular job, it is just my hobby!  Of course making some money on the side is pretty cool too.  I have no stakes in chinese market and this bbs is my only sense of this market.  Perhaps my preception of the chinese market  will be unbiased because that I have no emotion attached to this market.  Who knows, only time will tell.   My intuition beside charts also tells me the chinese market has not bottomed yet.  

Good luck with your trading!

biobuck

Good Luck with your trading!

[ Last edited by biobuck on 2005-6-12 at 00:04 ]

纪律2004

Target 1:  ~4200.. likelyhood  70%
Target 2: ~3700 ..              ~ 50%
Target 3: ~2200 ..              ~ 10%
Target 4: ~1600 ..              ~ 1% (you would be considered an idiot by everyone at the time to predict this! My broker friend said the market will NEVER come down to 3700.)

The Nasadq bottomed finally in 2003 at ~ 1200.  The lessen, the market will do the unexpected and will always surprsie YOU!  Just be prepared and have a plan ready if it happens.  

lastnight I scan your post, I was attracted by your chart, then put it on desktop, which alerts me to face the fact that the market has not reached the lower point.

From your following post I accepted your opinion that nothing is impossible in market, the change of Nasadq had already told us the truth.

thnak you for your detail expression. You are one of the best play at  Nasadq from your experience. I trust you like your colleagues.

thank s a lot

[ Last edited by 纪律2004 on 2005-6-12 at 10:26 ]

biobuck

Originally posted by 纪律2004 at 2005-6-12 10:22

I trust you like your colleagues.

From your following post ...

Thx!  But no need to do that.  ;-)  Just keep your mind open and listen to the market.  Don't form any opinion about the market because the market does not CARE about your view at all.  Market will do whatever it wants to.  

The 740 target was derived from 2 different methods.  However, the ~380 was from only 1 technique at this moment.  But my gut feeling is it will be reached somehow since even I doubt it.  ;-)  

I think 99.99% of investors will be surprised by how low this market will reach.  Simply because all the investors in this market have never experienced a real bear market. For god's sake the market is only 15 years old!!!  They will underestimate it and the market will demonstrate its power and humble all of them.  

The true bottom will be reached when nobody you know want to talk about stocks.  When they don't want you to remind them the painful experience they have just experienced. When many so called gurus are about to go bankrupcy and everywhere in the news media (TV, newspaper, radio) talking about BEAR MARKET IS HERE and talking about the sky is falling!  When the regulars of this borad disappead like flies, When nobody is buying and everyone is selling (panic selling), the market will TURN and amazingly NOBODY WILL BELIEVE IT.  This is the time you should BUY with every penny you got.  Of course you will have fear, a lot of it just like everyone around you.  If you can overcome the fear, you will be a winner!!!  No pain, no gain!!!  Withour risk, there will be no reward!

Good luck!

biobuck

投资收益

thx a lot

一笑过客

VERY GOOD OPINION INDEED！
NOTHING IS IMPOSSIBLE IN THE MARKET。
I AGREE THAT FOR THE SHORT TERM  ONLY IT‘S ENERGIZED FOR A  REBOUNCE。AS FOR THE MID/LONG TERMS YOU WOULD BE EVEN MORE CONFIDENT OF YOUR PREDICTIONS IF YOU KNEW SOME OF THE SITUATIONS IN CHINA。WE CAN’T FIND ANYTHING TO SUPPORT A BOOM。AS FOR THE FALL， THE REFORMATION TO GET NON-SELLABLE SHARES EXCHANGEABLE WILL SERVE AS A FORCIBLE MOMENTUM BY GREATLY INCREASING SUPPLY。
EVEN NOW WE SEE THE SIGNS。 ONE OF THE TENTATIVE REFORM LISTED COMPANY， QINGHUA TONGFANG FAILED IN GETTING ENOUGH VOTES。 BUT IT LACKED ONLY 4% OF THE VOTERS，WHICH MEANS IF ONLY 2% OF THE VOTERS SOMEHOW HAD CHANGED THEIR MINDS AT THE TIME OF POLL，EVEN TONGFANG WOULD HAVE SUCCEEDED IN GETTING THE RIGHT OF SEELING THIER NON-DEALABLE SHARES。

biobuck

Originally posted by 一笑过客 at 2005-6-12 15:18
THE REFORMATION TO GET NON-SELLABLE SHARES EXCHANGEABLE WILL SERVE AS A FORCIBLE MOMENTUM BY GREATLY INCREASING SUPPLY.

This news can't be good for the market.  Too much supply will eventually translate into lower prices.  Thx for the info.

Good luck with your trading!