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楼主: biobuck

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行云流水话投资

发表于 2005-8-16 17:09 | 显示全部楼层
Originally posted by biobuck at 2005-8-16 12:04

LOL, I know it sounds very hash.  But it is reality.  Truth hurts!  Nobody wants to admit it or say it and pretneds it is not there.  This is the anme of the game "Pigs get slaughtered" ...


confidence?你呀,你呀,你呀!

市场早已天翻地覆慨而慷,基金机构私募三足鼎立,至少80%之上的资金控制在专业人士的手里,跟你们差不多了。grand们的份额如同她们头上的黑发一样少,你这样的精英到国外转了一圈回来对grand们竟然有confidence了,淮南为桔淮北为枳出了新编。

如果这个事让我来表达,我会引用孙子的一句话,“昔之善战者,无智名,无勇功”,或者邓先生的半句话“善于守拙,决不当头”,或者一句你们的格言,英雄已经死了。

我能想出来的对老兄的最好的建议,这个市场的智力并不亚于Nasdaq。

[ Last edited by 大地飞鹰 on 2005-8-17 at 09:25 ]
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发表于 2005-8-16 19:32 | 显示全部楼层

biobuck

Originally posted by biobuck at 2005-8-15 07:24

How about pure greed?  That is how the tech bubble was created.  Before the peak of the bubble do you think  stocks were fair "valued"?  They were pretty much already "over-valued& ...


the bubble has just made that to gain more money from public company become possible when you are a sensible person.

[ Last edited by james369 on 2005-8-16 at 19:39 ]
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发表于 2005-8-16 20:32 | 显示全部楼层

biobuck

Originally posted by biobuck at 2005-8-15 07:24

A question for you.

When you buy a stock, do fundamental analysis ever told you WHEN and at WHAT price to sell?  Never.  TA can at least make some educated guess and help traders to make a reasonalble trading plan before the trade.  This is a very serious flaw for fundamental analysis.  It can't HELP you to determine when and at what price you should exit.  It does not help you to set stops....it actually make people holding on their losers hoping the stock price will recover to the "proper" valued price.  


When you want to buy a stock,TA can tell you
what  stock is worth while?
i.e what do you usually do to pick up a stock from thousands of public companies?


yes ,  fundamental analysis can't HELP us to determine when and at what price we should exit. and even to determine at what price we  shuld to start trading for gainning more profits ,
we can get help from TA.

but

My reason to emphasize the importance of  fundamental analysis is that it makes you know
how much risk you will facing .
which  can tell  you that  the price you gonna to pay is worth and the  stock price  will not stay at lower  too much for a long period of time.

as a professional trader fundamental analysis is a required course and even indispensable.
for he is not dealing with a small size of cash, when TA give a buy-in or sell-out signal  he can do that . on the contrary, a large sum of money needs time and space to run-in and out.

when trader thinks the bubble is too big ,
he will avoid trading . in this way fundamental analysis can also tell him what proportion money in his pocket should be put into trading that just depands on the bubble big or small.


goog luck!!!
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 楼主| 发表于 2005-8-17 12:11 | 显示全部楼层

飞鹰

Originally posted by 大地飞鹰 at 2005-8-16 17:09
confidence?你呀,

You misunderstood me.  I am not saying I have confidence in Grandp(m)a...  read my post again.    Those "pigs" are average folks who have no clue how dangerout the market can be and they are lored to the market by quick money and easy money.  They are the "crowd" which always buy at the top and sell at the bottom.  They will provide the "profits" for the selected few.  It happens in any markets, Nasdaq, China, EU...
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 楼主| 发表于 2005-8-17 12:26 | 显示全部楼层

James

i what do you usually do to pick up a stock from thousands of public companies?

I use TA criteria only.  Now I never consider fundamentals.  I used to get candiates using TA then I would try to see which has better fundamentals.  However my past expreience indicated that those I though safer and had better fundamentals actually performed poor than those were "risky" with poor fundamentals.  THe reason I think is : stocks are forward looking.  When you have good earnings etc.. the price has already reflected in the price, i.e. fundamental data only become available after the facts which stock price has already "discounted" them.  That is why I have completely abandoned fundamental analysis.  Actually I love those un-popular and un-love stocks which met my TA criteria.  Those are the ones gave me the highest returns becuase they are "under-valued" because everyone has given up on them and they are hated due to their poor historical performance and tend to be very oversold.  When they finally show signs of turn-arround (fundamentally), people will be surprised and they will rush in and want to buy (because fundamental improvement) this great turn around story... That is the time I will sell to them.  See, I buy when they sell  and I will sell to them when they buy.  Simple!
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行云流水话投资

发表于 2005-8-17 12:53 | 显示全部楼层
Originally posted by biobuck at 2005-8-17 12:11

You misunderstood me.  I am not saying I have confidence in Grandp(m)a...  read my post again.    Those "pigs" are average folks who have no clue how dangerout the market can be and they are lored to the market by quick money and easy money.  They are the "crowd" which always buy at the top and sell at the bottom.  They will provide the "profits" for the selected few.  It happens in any markets, Nasdaq, China, EU...


我们对市场的understand不一样。你居高临下高谈阔论,我战战兢兢小心翼翼泡在水里晒着太阳。角度不同,景色迥异。在你眼里,the "crowd"是多数,好爽啊。在我眼里,the selected few是多数,到处都是姚明,还有泰森,还有老虎,好难啊。

等我上岸再跟你聊聊交易方面的事情。
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行云流水话投资

发表于 2005-8-17 13:01 | 显示全部楼层
送你一个图片,也许有兴趣。

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 楼主| 发表于 2005-8-17 13:10 | 显示全部楼层

James

...My reason to emphasize the importance of  fundamental analysis is that it makes you know
how much risk you will facing....


This is how I see TA and FA.

A TA guy and a FA guy both want to go to Shanghai (east).  There are a few horses around they could choose to take a ride.  One is super strong horse relaxing under the sun.  This horse has good gene (his parents has won a number of horse races), the other is a horse with not much history but this horse is running toward the east.  This horse is definitely not as strong as the one has good gene.  there are also one good horse heading to the west and a few others were playing in the yard.  The FA guy said, I am going to choose the strongest horse with the good gene since He has all the potentials to run fast and long distance.  Once he is ready to go I will get to shanghai at no time.  The TA guy says, well that horse probably is strongest and fastest. but he may not help me much if he just staying here relaxing.  God know when he will be ready to move.  I will take the weaker horse who is at least moving and heading to the right direction.  I will walk if he refuses run any further or starts to change direction.  The rest of them are  better looking horses too but they are either heading to the wrong directions or doing nothing.  WHo will arrive shanghai first.  Nobody knows.  THis illustrates the difference between TA and FA in dealing how to approach the market.

Don't know if my analogy make sense or not.

LAter!
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 楼主| 发表于 2005-8-17 13:19 | 显示全部楼层

飞鹰

Good Looking trade!
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发表于 2005-8-17 16:40 | 显示全部楼层

biobuck

Originally posted by biobuck at 2005-8-17 12:26

Actually I love those un-popular and un-love stocks which met my TA criteria.  Those are the ones gave me the highest returns becuase they are "under-valued" because everyone has given up on them and they are hated due to their poor historical performance and tend to be very oversold.  When they finally show signs of turn-arround (fundamentally), people will be surprised and they will rush in and want to buy (because fundamental improvement) this great turn around story... That is the time I will sell to them.  See, I buy when they sell  and I will sell to them when they buy.  Simple!


what you are telling me is just a professional FA gonna do.   Actually he loves those un-popular and un-love stocks which met his FA criteria.  Those are the ones gave his the highest returns becuase they are "under-valued" because everyone do not know theirs  potential  and tend to be very oversold.  When they finally show signs of turn-arround (fundamentally), people will be surprised and they will rush in and want to buy (because hidden fundamental  has been show off) this great turn around story... That is the time the professional  FA will sell to them.  See, he  buy when they sell  and he will sell to them when they buy.  Simple!

a professional FA never buy hot and over valued stocks.

see ya.

[ Last edited by james369 on 2005-8-17 at 16:44 ]
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发表于 2005-8-17 16:58 | 显示全部楼层

biobuck

Originally posted by biobuck at 2005-8-17 13:10


This is how I see TA and FA.

A TA guy and a FA guy both want to go to Shanghai (east).  There are a few horses around they could choose to take a ride.  One is super strong horse relaxing un ...


form what you said here and above i know that you do not know a  job professional FA
has to do.

a professional FA has to find out a sick or hurted horse with good gene ,or a tired strongest horse .
the illness , hurtage or tireness will get away  ,the horse  will run as faster as he can,which let you money run even faster.

GOD BLESS YOU!!!
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 楼主| 发表于 2005-8-18 05:12 | 显示全部楼层
Originally posted by james369 at 2005-8-17 16:58

form what you said here and above i know that you do not know a  job professional FA
has to do.

a professional FA has to find out a sick or hurted horse with good gene ,or a tired stronges ...


See, I may not know how a professional FA does it.  But I know how a professional FA thinks.  :P:P

The guestion is then, will that horse want to run? and when?  It may just want to hang around for a bit longer than we thought.   :P:P
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行云流水话投资

发表于 2005-8-18 10:51 | 显示全部楼层
Originally posted by biobuck at 2005-8-18 05:12


See, I may not know how a professional FA does it.  But I know how a professional FA thinks.  :P:P

The guestion is then, will that horse want to run? and when?  It may just want to hang arou ...


你认识去上海的路么?
不认识,骑哪匹马都一样,最好的选择是不骑。
认识,OK,哪匹马健壮骑那匹,管它愿意到哪儿去,谁骑上了谁说了算。
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行云流水话投资

发表于 2005-8-18 10:58 | 显示全部楼层
我的意思是,交易的成本不在于使用TA或者FA,这不重要。我甚至认为做交易的人不应当自己去A,管它TA还是FA,XA、WA、SA都可以,能盈就是好A,不能盈就是坏A。
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行云流水话投资

发表于 2005-8-18 11:09 | 显示全部楼层
SH600618又涨停了,这可真的翻番了。SH600618是TA还是FA?
都是。
首先,我买它是因为我的一个系统发出明确的交易信息, 3.6附近。——TA
其次,上海市政府发出了明确的信号,一年完成股改,象600618这样的著名的杠杆股具有特殊魅力。 ——FA
再次,我只买了一点点,它是著名的妖股,多了不好,风险太高(TA),庄家会生气的(FA)。
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 楼主| 发表于 2005-8-18 13:40 | 显示全部楼层

james

Are you a professional FA trader?

later!
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行云流水话投资

发表于 2005-8-18 16:33 | 显示全部楼层
昨天那幅图有了继续。

好消息是,上岸了。
不好的消息是,太累了。

减仓和出仓都挂在了地板上,好处是实际交易价格优于系统价格,坏处是让人心里不能没有想法。上岸以后我想了一个问题,象我这样的水平如此之低的家伙都跑了,不计后果地在地板价格上跑(我指的是TA套利的那一部分)了,市场会怎么样呢?下午市场给出了答案,我看了,我累了,太累了。

休息。

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行云流水话投资

发表于 2005-8-29 19:23 | 显示全部楼层
继续讨论?
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 楼主| 发表于 2005-9-4 21:46 | 显示全部楼层
Why not?  I am still here but pretty busy recently.
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