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发表于 2008-1-23 18:23
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China’s parallel universe fades
来自：MACD论坛(bbs.macd.cn)
作者：bridge35
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"According to Jonathan Anderson, economist at UBS, the apparent link between markets was likely to be a “one or two month thing” because the Shanghai market was still relatively sheltered from cross-border capital flows. “The mainland market will probably remain decoupled,” he said.":*19*:
China’s parallel universe fades
By Geoff Dyer in Shanghai
Published: January 23 2008 01:43 | Last updated: January 23 2008 01:43
There have been many casualties in the past few days of stunning share price declines and one of those could be the idea that the Chinese market operates in its own parallel universe.
Mainland shares had attracted a huge amount of overseas interest in recent months, not just because of the two-year surge in share prices but also because some investors hoped China’s relatively closed capital market could act as a hedge against more inter-linked global markets. When New York, London or Hong Kong went in one direction, Shanghai often seemed to go the other way.
In the past two days, the main Shanghai index is down 12 per cent, compared to 13.7 per cent for the Hang Seng index. Shanghai is now down 26 per cent from its high on October 16, while Hong Kong is 32 per cent off its October 30 record.
“The Chinese market is becoming more and more integrated into the global market and its movements will be correlated with movements overseas,” said Zhong Hua, analyst at Changjiang Securities in Shanghai.
Although a few days’ figures do not make a trend, some analysts believe there are good reasons for the Chinese market to start to reflect global investor sentiment. The capital flows coming in and out of the mainland market are relatively modest and closely policed by the authorities but they could be starting to change the psychology of mainland investors.
Under the government’s quota system, foreign investors are only a small part of the market, but their investment strategies are widely discussed by local investors, while the launch last year of international equity funds for Chinese investors has boosted awareness of overseas markets among mainland share-buyers.
Meanwhile, the growth in the domestic fund management business – which had about Rmb3,300bn ($456bn) in assets under management at the end of 2007 – has also introduced more professional investment management and attention to relative valuations.
“The flows are not huge, but they have helped introduce a change in the investment philosophy in China,” said a Hong Kong based investment analyst, who asked not to be named. “It means that people pay a lot more attention to what is going on in the rest of the world and valuations in other markets.”
Not everyone is convinced, however, that mainland stocks will be so influenced by the global mood.
Fraser Howie, co-author of a book on the Chinese stock market, says the immediate cause of the recent share price falls in Shanghai has been fears about the impact of a US slowdown – just as in other Asian markets – which escalated rapidly in recent days.
However, he warned against reading too much into the share movements. “Nothing has really changed in terms of the linkages between China and the rest of the word,” he said.
There was a good chance that the mainland market would rally again on its own steam, fuelled by the huge amount of money sitting in low-yielding bank deposits, high profit growth and more general Olympics-related optimism. “It is not clear that the bull market is over yet,” he said.
According to Jonathan Anderson, economist at UBS, the apparent link between markets was likely to be a “one or two month thing” because the Shanghai market was still relatively sheltered from cross-border capital flows. “The mainland market will probably remain decoupled,” he said.
There are also plenty of home-grown factors that can explain some of the recent pessimism in the mainland market. Over the weekend, Ping An Insurance announced a $22bn share issue, which is nearly double the country’s largest initial public offering and exacerbated existing fears about a glut of new issues coming onto the market. Ping An shares fell by the daily limit of 10 per cent on Tuesday, on top of the 10 per cent on Monday.
Investors are also concerned that the holders of formerly non-tradeable shares, whose legal status was changed under an on-going government reform plan, will sell the paper as the lock-up period ends. HSBC calculates that Rmb1,400bn of tradeable shares will be added to the market float this year under the reform.
And just as investors in the US appeared to be unimpressed by the Bush administration’s planned fiscal stimulus package, Chinese investors have also been concerned by some of their own government’s recent moves, especially the decision last week to impose price controls on certain key food products.
Although some economists, including Mr Anderson at UBS, believe the measures will be temporary and inflation pressures will subside, the decision heightened concerns about inflationary risks in China and the use of such controls struck some investors as a backward step.
The drop in Shanghai share prices this week has demonstrated how linked China’s economy is to the rest of the world, but it is too soon to conclude that Chinese financial markets are humming a global tune. |
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发表于 2008-1-24 09:59
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