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大地飞鹰

Originally posted by biobuck at 2005-7-19 23:58


Thx!  I will look into all 4 indices when I have time.

Good Luck!

别客气，千万别客气。您远道而来，到了这儿正如到了我家里，您需要什么，凡是我能办到的在所不辞。现在，您好已经吃饱喝足了，有了游戏的的乐趣，如果你能解答我的几个问题，我也会有乐趣的。你可以拒绝，我保证，我以中国人的名义保证，你回答了我几个问题，你将有权要求我回答同样数目的问题。当然，如果涉及不便公开回答或者敏感问题，我有权拒绝。我的问题是：

1 你如何评估你的资金风险？你在本贴内非常强调分散的重要，那么具体处理、如何评估？

2 你如何确认一个长期趋势的开始和结束？从你的发言来看，你对趋势非常非常的看重，希望说出您的观点，我的请教以趋势为核心话题。

3 在一个长期趋势里，你如何动态调整你的资金风险以达到最佳平衡？有没有必要考虑局部超卖和超买？如果有，如何判断？

这三个问题在每一门投资学中答案都是清晰的，当然不同的学术派别答案不同，谈不上哪一个更好。我再一次表达我已经多次重复的观点，我不这关心您如何评价这些答案，也不关心你引用的是哪一个答案，我只关心你自己的答案。正如你的“Will you play?”问的其实是一个很简单的问题，我们愿意为一美元的收益担负多少风险？我的问题也是很简单的。

再次，恳请赐教。

大地飞鹰

MACD的朋友们，我这样说可以么？

biobuck

Originally posted by 大地飞鹰 at 2005-7-20 14:03
如果你能解答我的几个问题，我也会有乐趣的。你可以拒绝，我保 ...

Sure I will address your questions one by one but not at this moment.  It is 2:40 am here I need to get some sleep first.  

L8r!

淡雪

关注中

2 你如何确认一个长期趋势的开始和结束？

biobuck

Eagle those are BIG questions.  Let me try to answer it one by one.

Originally posted by 大地飞鹰 at 2005-7-20 14:03

1 你如何评估你的资金风险？你在本贴内非常强调分散的重要，那么具体处理、如何评估？

1.  Diversify ( but not overly diversified).

I have never hold more than 10 stocks at any time.  Mostly around 5.  Trading too many stocks at the same time, in my opinion will divide your attention and your result will suffer.

2. Position size

I used to have an excel work sheet to calculate the size of each trade.  Now I just use this online link which  has a table that does the samething.
http://staybaker.customer.netspa ... izeCalculator.html.  I would never risk more that 3% of my total capital on a particular trade.

3. Reward/risk ratio >3

Only took trades with  reward/risk ratio >3.  Determine the next major support (1st) and resistance (1st target).  Set stop below the support.  [1st target(resistance)- entry]/[entry- stop] > 3.  If this condition is not meet, I will not trade even if the technical analysis is very positive.  

4.  Time factor

This depends on my trading method. I am not a short term trader.  For my system, if a trade has not played out in my favor in ~6 months(used to be 3 months).  I will terminate it.

5.  Phase in

If I decided to buy a stock, I don't go 100% at once.  It generally takes me 2 or 3 purchases to get to 100% of my regular lot.  See, I am actually a very aggressive person and I tend to get into a trade too soon.  With this method, I get a portion and I let my excitement subside.  I wait a while to see if the stock  behaves as what I expected before the 2nd or the final purchase.  The waiting period can last a few days or weeks.  If the stock runs away from me before I get 100%, I am still okay with the smaller size and will add on a pull back or just ride it out.

...more to come later!

Is this the answer you are looking for?

[ Last edited by biobuck on 2005-7-21 at 02:05 ]

大地飞鹰

非常感谢！感谢非常！你说出了你的观点，非常精彩！我为你骄傲，也为自己骄傲，我没看错人。

希望你继续，也等待你的问题。

zhyz29

O ，MY GOD。
BEST WISH TO US！·。

biobuck

Originally posted by 大地飞鹰 at 2005-7-21 11:20
..希望你继续..

I will!  But be patient since I will be moving to a new place in the next few days.  I will nott have internet at home until the phone compnay has phone line set up.  I can't do too much at work with my company's internet.  So...be patient.

大地飞鹰

Originally posted by biobuck at 2005-7-22 00:58


I will!  But be patient since I will be moving to a new place in the next few days.  I will nott have internet at home until the phone compnay has phone line set up.  I can't do too much at wor ...

一路顺风，祝你好运！

可口乐

biobuck  is teasing you all, since he is a chinese and within china,
well he can speak and write perfect chinese why not do it.

如临深渊

哈哈哈哈哈哈......

掌声雷动,精彩纷呈.

飞鹰兄问好,biobuck兄答的妙!


哈哈哈.....

[ Last edited by 如临深渊 on 2005-7-25 at 15:25 ]

大地飞鹰

Originally posted by 如临深渊 at 2005-7-25 15:24
哈哈哈哈哈哈......

掌声雷动,精彩纷呈.

飞鹰兄问好,biobuck兄答的妙!


哈哈哈.....

胖子搬家，我好孤单啊。谁知道搬的是什么家，不会是让我给吓走了吧。

TO james369，我用Google G了一把，胖子竟然四处扩散D版MetaStock，他若不在中国，我肯定在美国。当然，我没说这些胖子是一个胖子。

来点绝的，看他出不出来。跟Equis、Reuters、盐湖城police局有哥们的朋友，举报从速，拿了赏金别忘了请客。

[ Last edited by 大地飞鹰 on 2005-7-27 at 18:27 ]

raylwg

同志们的英文那么好啊？

biobuck

test!!!!!!!!!!  I am back!!!

biobuck

Tease my ass!!!!  What benefit do I get for doing that?  Nothing!! Zero!! NULLl!!!

I have noticed we Chinese are in general very suspicious people.  We don't normally trust other people.  Perhaps this has something to do with >5000 years of history.  The first thing come to  people's mind is doubting others and their good and noble intention.  Becuase they don't used to see those (good & noble behaviors) much in their lives.  They are so used to negative thinking that they doubt anything positive.  "If it is good, it can't be true"  It is shame!!!

biobuck

Even dogs in china are very suspicious and unfriendly.  If you bent your knee, most dogs would have run away from you thinking you are picking a rock to throw at them.  In US, if you do that, dogs will run at you and wiggling their tails and thinking that you want to play with them.  The past (good and bad) experience have left a mark in the brain and have changed the thought process.

Don't say I believe " wai guo de yue liang bi zhongguo de yuan"  I am not!  It just happens that I have lived about equal time in China and US that I can make reasonable comparison between them.  Just some my observations.

Good Luck!

biobuck

I have to split them into smaller ones or it WILL not post at all?  Any suggestions?  THX!

biobuck

I have to split them into smaller ones or it WILL not post at all?  Any suggestions?  THX!  Let's resume our discussion and the only problem is I can't post long now.  Have to be very sort to be able to post.  Otherwise, my post will not get through.  See I have to split the post to james 369 into 2.  Any suggestions, you computer geeks???

biobuck

Just use basic TA tools but USE A LONG TERM (>5 year) weekly chart and increase the

The first chart of any stocks I will look is a long term weekly chart.

Apply your favorite Technical Analysis (TA) tools, such as trend line, MA, RSI, Stochastic K/D etc you can determine what is the current stage (trending up or down, sideway consolidation etc…). Personally I also increase the time for the indicators for example, use CCI (45) or even CCI (60) and 0 line as trigger line for the trend change.  <0 Bullish; <0 Bearish

biobuck

Identify a MAJOR bottom has been established on the weekly chart. Divergence on indicator (such as RSI, MACD or other momentum indictors or your choice) is very reliable way to spot top and bottom.  Look for known bottom/top patterns (such as W, or saucer etc.) to confirm the bottom too.  See I am not interested in if I am picking the exact bottom.  I want to know if a bottom has been formed or not.