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石镜泉论资产泡沫
2009年12月15日
2009年12月15日石镜泉在《经济日报》发表评论，标题是：“资产泡沫”。石兄认为这个方案倘若“认真执行上来，不少人的财富会被蒸发。”。全文照录如下。
香港金管局局长陈德霖昨日谓，大量热钱流入港，可能触发港资产泡沫，投资者要留心热钱突然流走。他没有说热钱流走会出现甚么现象，大家都知那时会楼价跌、股价跌、港汇跌、息升。要真留意时，请问投资者可以做乜？金管局可以做乜？ 投资者可以做的是︰在泡沫爆破前一刻，清货放假。但如在泡沫爆破前的1个月，已清货，则在出货后爆破前的暴升，可能令投资者激到爆肺。结果？人人都想见到“再见”那一刻才跳车，能否跳车成功，看你有没有这个心理准备和实际准备。
港金管局又可做乜？可以参考美国的做法，许沂光兄昨日来料提及，其文如下︰ 2009年12月11日美国众议院以223对202票通过长达1,279页的金融改革方案，共和党的议员没有人投赞成票。根据民主党提供的撮要，这个改革方案包括十个重要的范畴︰
‧保护消费者 Consumer Protections
‧金融平稳局 Financial Stability Council
‧判“太大不可以倒的机构”死刑 Dissolution Authority and Ending “Too Big to Fail”
‧行政人员薪酬 Executive Compensation
‧保护投资者 Investor Protections
‧监管衍生工具 Regulation of Derivatives
‧改革楼宇按揭 Mortgage Reform and Anti-Perdatory Lending
‧改革评级机构 Reform of Credit Rating Agencies
‧对冲基金、私募基金需要注册 Hedge Fund, Private Equity and Private Pools of Capital Registration
‧保险监管局 Office of Insurance
类似的方案，在1998年，亚洲金融风暴及美国长期资本对冲基金倒闭后，已由当时的英国首相贝理雅提出过，但就迟迟未落实，直到美国后栏火灾了，眼前无路才想回头。就算这个议案能通过，我们就会没有了资产泡沫吗？为甚么这个议案共和党人赞成？因为要认真执行上来，不少人的财富会被蒸发。
亨利考夫曼（Henry Kaufman） ，这位八、九十年代号令美国债券市场息口专家，于2000年写了本《On Money and Markets》的书，将这几十年来的识见、担忧，写了下来，全书最后一句是︰金融机构要平衡其赚钱冲动与保护客户财富责任。（这是笔者意译），原句是︰
financial intermediaries will need to be ever-more diligent to balance their entrepreneurial impulses with their fiduciary responsibilities。
假如金融机构真能做到这个平衡，就不会有金融海啸了。
央行失职酿金融海啸
为甚么金融机构做不到这个平衡，是因为中央银行失职，考夫曼是这样写︰
The behavioral bias toward inflated asset prices (reviewed above) also holds important implications for America's central bank, the Federal Reserve System. It will always be the case that the basic objective of monetary policy is to balance sustainable economic growth with price stability. But most associate price stability with the stability of goods and services. There is, however, another key dimension: the prices of real assets such as housing and commercial property on the one hand and the value of financial assets on the other hand. To what extent should the Federal Reserve take into account inflation in asset prices when formulating monetary policy There is a political dimension to this difficult question, for the simple fact is that inflation in asset prices is quite popular, whereas inflation in the prices of goods and services typically hurts the average individual or family in very tangible ways.
Still, excessive inflation in financial asset prices sets in motion a series of forces that over time can undermine the foundations of a stable economy. For one thing, it stifles the incentives to save. In the 5 years prior to December 31, 1998, for example, the financial net worth of Americans had gone up by $9.8 trillion, while fresh savings out of current income had amounted to $664 billion. Excessive inflation in financial asset prices can breed excesses in business investment, can contribute to undue economic and financial concentration, and can encourage questionable flows of funds into risky markets at the hands of inexperienced investors.
刊出原文是希望大家看清楚，亦免译过来时笔者加入了己见。当年考夫曼已提及 inflation in asset prices，即资产泡沫。考夫曼认为中央银行既要应付民生物用的通胀，也要应付资产通产，不然我们的经济体系将受创伤。
央行不要事后救火，要事前防火，他认为︰
While monetary policy continues to evolve in its formulation, procedures, and implementation, the process is rather slow. Therefore, the chances are that monetary policy will not keep pace with the requirements of managing a volatile financial market and thus promote sustainable growth. Let me state clearly some of my own views on monetary policy.
To begin with, I believe that the primary objective of a central bank should be to maintain the financial well-being of society in the broadest sense. That means establishing stable financial conditions by exercising careful oversight over financial markets, institutions, and trading practices; anticipating potential problems; and taking remedial action before those problems can do widespread damage. For that, the Fed must pursue monetary policy actions that will, over time, lay a foundation for the successful achievement of sustainable economic growth with minimal inflation, and with minimal risks of financial shocks that could disrupt the economy.
美国政府基于种种原因，未有及时把好关，而惹来金融海啸，但大家以为中国政府会不会对资产泡沫视而不见？笔者相信不会，亦因此，中国政府在 2010 年会频频出手，去撇资产泡沫的，工作不易做，但能不做吗？亦因此投资者除了担心撤资外，亦要留意阿爷的压资，有机会再谈。
[ 本帖最后由 gllsh 于 2009-12-15 17:05 编辑 ] | 
发表于 2009-12-15 16:43
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发表于 2009-12-15 17:03
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