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国联证券:市场特征孕育变化 行情重启为时不远

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发表于 2009-12-25 11:41 | 显示全部楼层

国联证券:市场特征孕育变化 行情重启为时不远

来自:MACD论坛(bbs.macd.cn) 作者:w6tcn 浏览:2007 回复:1

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    12月,三要素导致跨年度行情夭折。12月,大市先涨后跌,大众热望的跨年度行情夭折。流动性逐渐消退及未来更谨慎的预期是市场下跌的主要原因,主要表现在三个方面:巨额和超高市盈率的IPO融资以及巨额银行资本金的市场化充实预期和地产调控所带来的信贷收紧所带来殃及池鱼的预期,此外美元反弹导致商品市场走软抑制了石油石化这一权重板块的上涨动力。
    市场进一步显示出“上下半场”交接棒的特征。我们在年度策略报告中认为根据流动性的变化,取利于复苏将分为“上下半场”。“上半场”将是流动性配置的尾声,“下半场”则是侧重业绩的防御投资,“上半场”的整体行情更为明显。但当前“上下半场”的分水岭信号已经部分显现,虽然总体上市场仍处于“上半场”,但“下半场”开始孕育,双方开始上演交接棒。预计“上班场”行情仍在,但将表现出更多“下半场”的特征。
    1~2月,A股市场行情仍可乐观。首先,我们预期IPO节奏将放缓,对市场逐渐产生正面影响;其次,对地产调控过度担忧情绪将逐渐转为理性;第三,当美元反弹更多体现为美国经济转强的因素时,这也意味着出口的恢复性增长仍将持续。我们认为1~2月份市场行情偏乐观,1月上旬可能会接续12月的调整行情,在3000点上下整固,寻找支撑,极限低位在2800点;一月下旬市场有望震荡盘升。2010年1~2月上证指数运行区间在2800~3400点之间。
    1~2月,投资策略宜自下而上,先守后攻,重点配置以消费类为代表的防御性板块和具有通胀预期的农产品板块,关注具有高分配预期个股。建议关注:食品饮料、商业百货、家用电器、通讯设备、信息服务、石油化工、农化、机械、农业、航天军工和新能源。
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发表于 2009-12-26 20:29
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