江恩精彩语录收集专题

xingjw

江恩语录10：

“When you find that a stock does not seem to work well for you, leave it alone. Quit trading in it, and stick to the ones that favor you. I could explain to you the cause for this, but it is not necessary, and many of you would not believe it.”
当你发现一个股票并不像你分析的那样运行时，就请离开它，退出在它上面的交易，而要去坚持操作你能很好把握的股票。我可以解释这其中的原因，但不是必须的，同时你们其中的很多人也未必相信这个解释。

It makes no difference whether you know or do not know the reason why a thing works or does not work; just as soon as experience teaches you that there is something that works against you, the only thing to do is quit."　　
你是否知道一件事情为什么发生或不发生的原因是没有太大差别的。你只需要让经验事实告诉你有些东西正在和你对着干就足够了，你仅仅需要的是退出。

W. D. Gann, Truth ofthe Stock Tape, p. 75

ghw6501

謝謝分享#bb#

xingjw

江恩的结论：   

     《华尔街四十五年》就此结束。我在华尔街的实际经历可以追溯至1902年——47年前。这些年已经让我明白我最宝贵的财富是时间。我对时间最好的利用是获取知识，知识远比金钱可贵。在这本书中，我已经揭示厂一些我最重要的规则和以前从未出版的秘密发现，希望他人能够努力学习并运用这些规则。如果他们这样做，那么投机和投资将不再是赌博，而是一种有利可图的职业。
                                                                                                                                                                                                
------W.D.江恩

乾坤大海

:WX:好贴沉淀啊

xingjw

江恩语录11-15：

11）.Go with the tide and not against it. There is a time to buy and a time to sell.
11）.跟随潮汐般的趋势，决不要逆势而为。该买入的时候买入，该卖出的时候卖出。

12）.  "A man has to buy and sell to make a profit, that is, he has to get in right and get out right. Then he must watch for the proper time to start his trade and the proper time to close it. Getting in right does not help you if you fail to get out right. …
12）.  一个人只有先买进然后再卖出才能获利。这就是说,他必须在合适的时间进入市场并在合适的时间及时退出。因此，他必须寻找合适的机会开始交易并在恰当的时候结束交易。假如你不能及时的退出市场，即使在正确的时机买进也不能帮助你获利。

13）. "When you buy or sell a stock and it does not act right immediately or start to move in your favor within a reasonable length of time, get out of it. … It is much better to take a quick loss of 2, 3, or 5 points than to hold on and hope and eventually take anywhere from a 10 to a 50-point loss. Always remember what Jim Keene said: 'If stocks won't go your way, you must go their way.' Always go with the tide; never buck it. …
13）. 当你买入或卖出股票时，如果不能立即确认操作正确，或者未能在合理时间内按照预判的方向开始运动，那就要从交易中退出。2，3或5点快速的损失将远好于坚持和幻想继续持有，以至于最终将从损失10点扩大到50点。永远记住Jim Keene说过的话：“假如股票不按你预测的方式在走，你就必须按照它的方式走”永远跟随潮汐的趋势走，永远不要逆势操作。

14） "The Bible says 'There is a time for everything.'  All the laws of Nature teach this. There is a time to sow and a time to reap. The four seasons of the year teach us that there is a reaping time and a sowing time, and that we cannot reverse this order of Nature's laws. Man does not try to grow oranges in Greenland's icy mountains; neither does he expect to cut ice from the tropical rivers in Florida, because it is out of season, time, and place.
14） 圣经说：“万事万物皆有自己的时间”。所有的自然法则都在说明这个道理。播种有时节，收割也有时令。一年四季告诉我们收获有时间，播种亦有时间，我们不可能违反自然法则的秩序。人们不可能在格林兰冰山上种植橙子，也不可能期望在佛罗里达的热带河流里采冰，因为它们的气候不合适，时间和所处的地点都不合适。【注：一切有为法，如梦幻泡影】

15） It is the same with the stock market. There is a time to buy and a time to sell, and when this time occurs, neither bunches of bears nor bevies of bulls with hot air, hope, optimism, extreme pessimism, depression or bad reports, can force prices above or below the zones of Supply and Demand, out of season. You must learn to go with the tide, and not against it. Discern the signs of the times, and do not get caught in the undertow when the tide is flowing out. Those who hesitate and are late in buying or selling in the last stage invariably have to take losses."
15）上面所说的道理和证券市场相同。该买入的时候买入，该卖出的时候卖出。而当这些时机出现的时候，不管是牛市热烈气氛，希望，乐观情绪，还是熊市极度悲观， 沮丧和糟糕的坏消息，都不能迫使价格高于或低于供求关系的范围，或者超出时间周期。你必须学会跟随潮汐的趋势而不是与之对抗。辨别时间周期的迹象，当潮汐的趋势将要结束并开始退潮的时候不要参与其中。在行情的最后阶段里，那些一直犹疑踌躇直到最后才买进或卖出的人们，总是不可避免地将遭受损失

xingjw

江恩语录16-18：

No.16: The ancient hunters had  a rule that when they were searching to locate an aninmal in his hen, they always followed his tracks backwards, figuring that it was the shortest route to his lair. The quickest way for you to learn how to determine future market movements is to study the past.
“古代的猎手在打猎的时候有一条规则，当他们搜索寻找猎物的巢穴时，他们通常在背后跟踪猎物的足迹，计算出这就是距离猎物巢穴的最短路程。学习如何确定未来市场运动的最快方式就是研究过去。”  
---GANN 《时间循环预测》1939年8月

No. 17: “没人能够没有做好准备就学会东西，尽管它就摆在人们的眼前，人们也会视而不见。一个化学家可以将他最珍贵的秘密告诉给一个木匠，而这个木匠决不会更聪明地将这个秘密出售给另一个化学家。”
－爱默生。

No.18: There is a definite relation between TIME and PRICE. In the previous lessons you have learned about FORMATIONS and RESISTANCE levels around old tops and bottoms. Now, by a study of the TIME PERIODS and TIME CYCLES you will learn why tops and bottoms are formed at certain times and why Resistance levels are so strong at certain times and bottoms and tops hold around them.
---GANN 《时间循环预测》1939年.8月

时间和价格之间存在确定的相互关系。在前面的课程中你们已经学习过了在顶部和底部附近的形态和阻力位。 现在，通过学习时间周期和时间循环，你们将会明白顶部和底部为什么在某些时间形成并且为什么某些顶部和底部附近的阻力位是如此的强大无比。

杜东光

11111111

xingjw

Every movement in the market is the result of a natural law and a Cause which exists long before the Effect takes place and can be determined years in advance. The future is but a repetition of the past, as the Bible plainly states:
市场中的每一个运动都是自然法则和早已长期存在原因导致的结果，可以提前许多年被确定。未来只不过是过去的重复，正如《圣经》明白指出过的：

"The thing that hath been, it is that which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done, and there is no new things under the sun." Eccl. 1:9
“已有的事，后必再有。已行的事，后必再行。阳光下并无新鲜事。”-《圣经-传道书1:9》。

Everything moves in cycles as a result of the natural law of action and reaction. By a study of the past, I have discovered what cycles repeat in the future.
任何周期性运动都是自然法则作用和反作用导致的结果。通过研究历史，我发现了在未来重复的时间循环。

xingjw

There must always be a major and a minor, a greater and a lesser, a positive and a negative. In order to be accurate in forecasting the future, you must know the major cycles. The most money is made when fast moves and extreme fluctuations occur at the end of major cycles.
世间存在着主要和次要，较大和较小，正向与负向之分的各种循环，所以为了准确地预测未来，你必须了解主要循环。那么在主要周期结束时出现的快速而又极端的波动，就是你赚钱最多的时候。

I have experimented and compared past markets in order to locate the major and minor cycles and determine what years in the cycles repeat in the future. After years of research and practical tests, I have discovered that the following cycles are the most reliable to use:
为了确定主要和次要的时间周期，并确定未来会重复循环哪些年份，我已做了大量的试验并对比了过去的市场。经过多年研究和实践考察之后我发现了下列最为实用可靠的周期。

xingjw

RULES FOR FUTURE CYCLES 未来周期循环的规则

Stocks move in 10-year cycles, which are worked out in 5-year cycles – a 5-year cycle up and a 5-year cycle down. Begin with extreme tops and extreme bottoms to figure all cycles, either major or minor.
股市以10年周期运作，这个10年可分一个5年上涨周期和一个5年下跌周期。从极限顶部和极限底部开始计算所有的循环，无论其是大循环或小循环。

Rule1 – A bull campaign generally runs 5 years – 2 years up, 1 year down, and 2years up, completing a 5-year cycle. The end of a 5-year campaign comes in the59th or 60th months. Always watch for the change in the 59th month.
规则1：牛市通常运行5年，其中2年上涨，1年下跌，然后再上涨2年，完成一个5年周期。5年的大行情结束在第59个月或第60个月。因此始终要留意第59个月的变化。

Rule2 – A bear cycle often runs 5 years down – the first move 2 years down, then 1year up, and 2 years down, completing the 5-year down swing.
规则2：熊市通常运行5年的下跌周期，首先是2年下跌，1年上涨，然后再下跌2年，完成一个5年的下跌趋势。

Rule3 – Bull or bear campaigns seldom run more than 3 to 3 ½ years up or downwithout a move of 3 to 6 months or one year in the opposite direction, exceptat the end of Major Cycles, like 1869 and 1929.
规则3：大牛市或大熊市未经过3至6个月或1年的反向行情时很少能超过3年到3-1/2年的上涨或下跌的，除了主要周期结束之时，比如1869年到1929年。

Rule4 – Adding 10 years to any top, it will give you top of the next 10-year cycle,repeating about the same average fluctuations.
规则4：给任意顶部加上10年，将会得到下个10年周期的顶部，行情会以相同的平均波动重演。

xingjw

Rule 5 – Adding 10 years to any bottom, it will give you the bottom of the next 10-year cycle, repeating the same kind of a year and about the same average fluctuations.
规则5：在任何底部加上10年将会得到下个10年周期的底部，行情会以相同的平均波动重演某年的走势。

Rule 6 – Bear campaigns often run out in 7-year cycles, or 3 years and 4 years from any complete bottom. From any complete bottom of a cycle, first add 3 years to get the next bottom; then add 4 years to that bottom to get the bottom of the 7-year cycle. For example: 1914 bottom – add 3 years, gives 1917, low of panic; then add 4 years to 1917, gives 1921, low of another depression.
规则6：熊市通常运行7年周期，即从任何完整的底部开始先运行3年后运行4年。从任何完整的底部周期开始首先加上3年得到下一个底部，然后给此底部再加上4年，从而得到了7年周期的底部。例如：给1914年底部加上3年，得到1917年恐慌性低点；然后给1917年加上4年，得到1921年这个萧条之年的低点。


Rule 7 – To any final major or minor top, add 3 years to get the next top; then add 3 years to that top, which will give the third top; add 4 years to the third top to get the final top of a 10-year cycle. Sometimes a change in trend from any top occurs before the end of the regular time period, therefore you should begin to watch the 27th, 34th, and 42nd months for a reversal.
规则7：给任意最后的主要或次要顶部加上3年，可取得下一个顶部，然后在此顶部再加上3年，将得到第三个顶部，给第三个顶部再加上4年将得到10年周期的最后顶部。有时始于任意顶部的趋势在正常时间周期结束前提前出现变化，因此应从第27月，第34月和第42个月开始观察趋势是否将反转。

Rule 8 – Adding 5 years to any top, it will give the next bottom of a 5-year cycle. In order to get top of the next 5-year cycle, add 5 years to any bottom. For example: 1917 was bottom of a big bear campaign; add 5 years gives 1922, top of a minor bull campaign. Why do I say, "Top of a minor bull campaign?" Because the major bull campaign was due to end in 1929.
规则8：给任意顶部加上5年，将得到5年周期的下一个底部。给任何底部加上5年即可取得下一个5年周期的顶部。例如：1917年是一个大熊市的底部，给其加上5年得到1922年这个较小的牛市的顶部。为什么说是“次级牛市的顶部？”，原因在于大牛市应结束在1929年。

1919 was top; adding 5 years to 1919 gives 1924 as a bottom of a 5-year bear cycle. Refer to Rules 1 and 2, which tell you that a bull or bear campaign seldom runs more that 2 to 3 years in the same direction. The bear campaign from 1919 was 2 years down - 1920 and 1921; therefore, we only expect one-year rally in 1922; then two years down – 1923 and 1924 which completes the 5-year bear cycle.
1919年是顶部，加上5年得到1924年这个5年熊市周期的底部。在规则1和规则2曾提到，一个牛市或熊市很少在相同方向上运行超过2至3年的。始于1919年开始的大熊市在1920年和1921年下跌2年；因此我们只能期望在1922年出现一年的反弹行情，随后在1923年和l924年再次下跌2年，在这过程中完成5年的熊市周期。

Looking back to 1913 and 1914, you will see that 1923 and 1924 must be bear years to complete the 10-year cycle from the bottoms of 1913-14. Then, note 1917 bottom of a bear year; adding 7 years gives 1924 also as bottom of a bear cycle. Then, adding 5 years to 1924 gives 1929 top of a cycle.
回顾1913年和1914年，你会看到1923年和1924年必将以熊市之年出现以完成自1913到1914年底部开始的10年周期。那么给1917年熊市的底部，加上7年得到1924年，它也是熊市周期的底部，然后再加上5年得到1929年这个循环的顶部。

xingjw

月度行情同样可用年度规则来确定：

规则：给重要的底部加上3个月，然后再加上4个月是7个月，得到一个次级底部和回调点位。

如同年度循环规则所说的2年回调之后，从第3年恢复上涨的规则同样适合于月度行情，即一轮大上涨趋势过程中的回调通常不会超过2月，在第3个月恢复上涨。

在极端市场中，回调有时经常仅仅持续2周或3周，然后就恢复上涨。此时市场在不会跌破前一个月的低点的情况下连续上涨12个月。

在牛市中的次级趋势可能会反转向下运行3至4个月，然后掉头向上再次恢复主趋势的运行。

在熊市中的次级趋势可能会反弹运行3至4个月，然后再次恢复向下的主趋势。通常情况下，作为一般性的规则，熊市中的股票从不超过2个月的反弹，然后在第3个月破位下行并恢复下跌的主趋势。

红色99

很好，就应该经常品味

xingjw

“The time factor and time periods are most important in determining a change in trend because time can overbalance price, and when the time is up the volume of sales will increase and force prices higher or lower”
时间因素和时间周期是确定趋势转变的最重要因素，因为时间可以使价格失去平衡，当时间到达成交量将增加并迫使价格走高或走低。
(“45 Years In Wall Street”, 1941, page 10).

“Time is the most important factor of all and not until sufficient time has expired does any big move start up or down.The time factor will overbalance both space and volume. When time is up, space movement will start and large volume will begin, either up or down. At the end of any important movement - monthly, weekly or daily - Time must be allowed for accumulation or distribution or for buying and selling to be completed”
时间是所有因子中最重要的一个，如果时间周期没有还没有完全走完，那么大级别的上涨和下跌就不会开始。时间因素将会超越空间以及成交量的平衡，当时间到达，空间的运动将开始，并开始产生巨大的成交量，不论上涨或下跌都一样。在重要的波动的尾声，月，周，日，吸筹和派发必定需要时间才能使得买卖交易过程终结。
(“How To Make Profits In Commodities”, 1951,page 56).

xingjw

"No man can learn what he has not preparation for learning, however near to his eyes is the object. A chemist may tell his most precious secrets to a carpenter, and he shall be never the wiser-the secrets he would not utter to a chemist for an estate."-Emerson.  --"Truth Of The Stock Tape"

“没人能够没有做好准备就能够学会东西，尽管它就摆在人们的眼前，人们也会视而不见。一个化学家可以将他最珍贵的秘密告诉给一个木匠，而这个木匠决不会更聪明地将这个秘密出售给另一个化学家。”－爱默生。 《股市行情的真谛》

nicoyu

:#bb#谢谢分享

xingjw

以下关于美国钢铁的论述出现在《江恩核心股票教程》，第二章，“股票市场的预测方法”

For example:
When a stock sells at 50 on the 180th day, week or month, it is on the degree ofits time angle. On February 1, 1915, U.S. Steel made a low at 38$, which is closestto a price of 37 .5$, which is 3/8 of 100 and equals 135° angle. On February25, 1915, U.S. Steel was 14 years or 168 months old, and hit the angle of 135°,which showed that U.S. Steel was behind time, but that it was in a strongposition, holding at 38 above the 135°angle or the price of 37.5.
例如：
当 一个股票的价格在第180天，周或月的价格是50$时，这个价格就正好位于它的时间角度线之上。在1915年2月1日，美国钢铁创出一个低点38$，收盘 价极为接近37-1/2$，它是100的3/8，也等于135°角度。1915年2月25日距离美国钢铁上市14周年或168个月，这个时间角度已超过了 135°角，说明美国钢铁的价格滞后于时间, 但是它却处在135°角之上的强势位置38$处或37-1/2$价格之上获得支撑。[注：168个月转换成价格是100*(168 /360)=46.7$, 实际的市场价格只有38$,因此江恩说美国钢铁的价格落后于时间的角度。]

When Steel reached 200$, it equaled 2 circles of 360 degree.  When itadvanced to 261.75$, it was closest to 62.5 in the third 100 or nearest the225°angle or 5/8 point, which is the strongest angle after it crossed thehalf-way point at 250$ or 180°angle.
美国钢铁穿过了相当于2个360°圆的200$的位置。当其上涨至261.75$时，最接近第三个100中的62.5，或者说也最靠近225°角，或 者圆的八分之五点。225°角是穿过1/2位置即180°之后的最强角度。262.5$或者225°角是美国钢铁穿过250美元的半路点或者180度角度线后最强大的角度。
[注：江恩这里选择100美元作为价格360度的基数，当价格从38美元上涨到261.75美元的时候，价格的角度线完成了2个360度的循环，来到了第3个循环的225度角度线。因此江恩是261.75这个价格是穿过180度250美元之后最强的阻力位。]

xingjw

Under the instructions for the Master Timing Angles, you will find how far each timing angle had moved from the time that Steel was incorporated up to the time it made extreme top.
在一个主宰的时间角度指引下，你将会找出每一个时间角度从美国钢铁开始成立到它形成极端顶部的位置有多远。[注：美国钢铁成立于1901.2.25； 1907年10月低点价格$21.875; 1915年2月25日，14周年，形成了一个月线的低点38$; 1929年9月份的高点$261.75；]


Study these time angles, and you will see what happens when each of time angles reach 24，36，48，60，72，84，90，120，135，157-1/2，180，210，225，240，270，300，315，330，345 and 360 months, the equivalent of 360 degree.
研究这些主宰的时间角度，你将看到时间角度到达第24，36，48，60，72，84，90，120，135，157-1/2，180，210，225，240，270，300，315，330，345月以及相当于360°的360月时行情会出现不同的走势。

Under the Master Timing Angles we also show you what happens when timing angles (these refer to the planets order in the solar system) #5,#6, #7, #8, #9 cross the other timing angles (conjunct) or cross the place where they first were when Steel was incorporated (natal astrology) or to the same place when any extreme high or low price is reached.

在这个主宰的时间角度下，我也可以展现给你，当时间角度（这些角度可以查阅行星在太阳系的位置来确定顺序）#5，#6，#7，#8，#9（木，土，天，海，冥）穿越其他（行星）的时间角度（交会）或者穿过美国钢铁成立开始时它所在的哪个位置（出生星盘），或者穿越历史上重要的高低点曾经出现的位置时，新的极端高低点就会出现。

xingjw

You will learn when these Master Timing Angles returns to the same place or to the same angle or degree from which they started. Therefore you will know the exact measurements of cycles according to moving energy. The instructions on the Master Timing Angles give you the cause of all market movements and they can be worked out ahead as far as the year 2000.
你将会明白，什么时候这些主宰的时间角度将会返回到他们最原先开始时候的角度和位置。这样你就可以根据市场运动的能量精确计算和测量时间的循环，和主宰时间角度有关的指引将给你所有市场运动原因的解释。并且它们可以被提前计算出来，甚至可以到2000年。

The figures which we will use are figures made by the United States Government astronomers and are therefore absolutely accurate. A careful study of all these figures and a comparison of the movements of various stocks will convince you of their value.
我们使用的这些（行星）的图表（星历表）是由美国政府的天文学家制作的，因此可以确信这些数据是绝对精确的。请仔细地研究学习这些图表（星历表），并将他们和各种股票的运动进行仔细的对比，你将使你确信这些图表的价值。

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跟随主要的趋势

You will always make money by following the main trend of stocks up or down. Remember that stocks are never too high or buy as long as the trend is up and they are never too low to sell as long as the trend is down.
顺应主趋势操作你会在股票市场中不断获利。记住：只要趋势向上，不要因为太高而不敢买，反之，只要趋势向下，也不要因为太低而不敢卖。

Never sell short just because the stock is high or because you think it is too high. Never sell out and take profits just because the price is high. Buy and sell according to definite rules and not on hope, fear or guesswork. Never buy a stock just because the stock is low. There is usually a good reason why it is low and it can go lower.
绝不因为价格太高或者你认为它已经涨太高了而卖空，也不能因为价格太高而获利卖出。买卖股票是依照明确的规则来操作而不是你对市场的期望、恐惧和臆测。有充足的理由证明市场为什么会不断创出新低，因此也不能因为价格太低而买进。股价低通常总是存在一个合适的理由，并且它可能会走得更低。