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- 2018-2-6
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戰爭循環
比對過去2600年以來的戰爭統計數字,為期18年的戰爭循環最為可信。在戰爭爆發之前,先上場的就是貿易戰爭與保護主義,而後實體戰爭就登台。在貿易戰爭中,任何一方的政府/中央銀行如果貶值貨幣,戰爭循環的爆發點隨後就到,兩者有絕對的正相關。誰勝誰負?根據統計,貨幣貶值的國家會敗,而貨幣相對升值的國家可勝,但都會受傷。目前這齣戲正在上映當中,如果您從這個觀點去看,就不難瞭解為何中共今年耗費1/3的外匯存底去捍衛人民幣,而美國不斷加息去升值美金。且不論背後的經濟理論,可見雙方的領導人都深諳戰爭循環。
另外,從戰爭循環曲線來看,引爆點就是2019-2021之間,台海之戰是序幕嗎?我不敢說,您覺得呢?
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(以上內容摘錄於Dr. Raymond Wheeler of the University of Kansas的循環理論)
Dr. Raymond Wheeler of the University of Kansas has shown that the rise and fall of governments has a high relationship to climate changes. Edward Dewey expanded on Wheeler’s findings and found the 18-year war cycle as described above is consistent through 2,600 years of data. Human society seems to have a natural tendency and high likelihood of engaging in conflict every 18 years on average, and is a factor that seems to correlate with the early or late arrival of the war cycle in response to changes in the monetary system.
When governments and Central Banks made major changes to a countries monetary system and currency (usually being devalued) in the midst of a financial crisis, it was shown to have a strong positive or negative correlation on the war cycle coming due. Those countries that experienced depreciating currencies were more likely to enter into the war cycle, while those whose currency appreciated were more likely to avoid the war cycle. The key factor was whether or not the country became protectionist and engaged in trade wars. Today, we have currency wars which is a form of trade wars, and has caused growing tensions between nations including the US and Russia. This fact unfortunately would lead us to believe that these trade wars could soon lead to physical wars. |
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