Introduction
All the European currencies under consideration may be forming local correction. The Japanese yen marked the beginning of a possible upward trend.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0108. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
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Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
Wave (b) of may be forming. Correction itself may assume the shape of a downward zigzag or of a more complicated compound pattern.
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Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.
Corrective wave (b) may continue forming and may assume the shape of an upward zigzag.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual -08 and Monthly -0108. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
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Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
Corrective wave , which can assume a more complicated shape than au upward zigzag, may be forming.
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Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.
Supposedly correction continues forming. An upward zigzag that is forming currently may prove to be only a component part (a) of the whole correction .
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual -08 and Monthly -0108. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 120 min chart.
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Figure 5. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.
The downward price movement formed a double zigzag, and that increases chances for the beginning of an upward trend in the near term. Such a scenario was supposed previously and it doesn’t contradict expectations set out in the article Possible trade with an excellent profit/loss ratio.
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Figure 6. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 1.
As the price decline since the end of 2007 formed a corrective structure scenario 1 currently gains an advantage over the other scenarios.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual -08 and Monthly -0108. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
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Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
Wave (b) of may be forming. Correction itself may assume the shape of a wave flat or of a more complicated compound pattern.
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Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.
Corrective wave (b) may continue forming and can assume the shape of a downward zigzag.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.
Reference
[*]The review of the bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]EUR/USD (Annual, 2008)[*]GBP/USD (Annual, 2008)[*]USD/CHF (Annual, 2008)[*]USD/JPY (Annual, 2008)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2008[*]EUR/USD, (Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2008) [*]GBP/USD, (Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2008)[*]USD/JPY, (Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2008)[*]USD/CHF, (Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2008)[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Let's Analyze Zigzag Wave Construction[*]The Impulsive Decline of the Dollar as One of the Possible Scenarios[*]Possible Trade with an Excellent Profit/Risk Ratio[*]Wave analysis[*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comJanuary 24, 2008When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.
Introduction
1) All the European currencies under consideration may be forming local correction. The Japanese yen marked the beginning of a possible upward trend.
2) Traders, who followed the trading recommendations (refer to Daily-220108), can lock in total profit of about 700 pips.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0108. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
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Figure 1. Wave countin on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
Supposedly wave b of (a) of completes forming. The supposed wave (a) of itself may assume the shape of a downward zigzag.
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Figure 2. Wave countin on 120 min chart. Variant 1.
Upward zigzag b of (a) turns out to be rather proportional. After its completion a downward reversal of local trend should be expected.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual -08 and Monthly-0108. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29522_7304.gif
Figure 3. Wave countin on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
Corrective wave , which can assume a complicated compound shape, may be forming.
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Figure 4. Wave countin on 120 min chart. Variant 1.
Upward zigzag (a) turns out to be with approximately equal legs. After its completion a downward reversal of local trend should be expected.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual -08 and Monthly -0108. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 120 min chart.
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Figure 5. Wave countin on 120 min chart. Variant 1.
The price downward movement formed a double zigzag, increasing chances that the upward trend will continue.
But until the price fixes above the confirming level, there is an alternative variant suggesting the continuation of the downward trend. Such a variant doesn’t contradict the expectations set out in the article Possible trade with an excellent profit/risk ratio.
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Figure 6. Wave countin on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
As the price decline since the end of 2007 formed namely a corrective structure scenario 1 currently gains an advantage over the other scenarios.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual -08 and Monthly -0108. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29522_7308.gif
Figure 7. Wave countin on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
Supposedly wave b of (a) of is ending. The supposed wave (a) of itself may assume the shape of a wave flat.
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Figure 8. Wave countin on 120 min chart. Variant 1.
After double or triple zigzag b of (a) completes an upward reversal of local trend should be expected.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.
Reference
[*]The review of the bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]EUR/USD (Annual, 2008)[*]GBP/USD (Annual, 2008)[*]USD/CHF (Annual, 2008)[*]USD/JPY (Annual, 2008)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2008[*]EUR/USD, (Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2008) [*]GBP/USD, (Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2008)[*]USD/JPY, (Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2008)[*]USD/CHF, (Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2008)[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Let's Analyze Zigzag Wave Construction[*]The Impulsive Decline of the Dollar as One of the Possible Scenarios[*]Possible Trade with an Excellent Profit/Risk Ratio[*]Wave analysis[*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comJanuary 25, 2008When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.
Introduction
All the European currencies under consideration may be forming local correction. The Japanese yen marked the beginning of a possible upward trend.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 и Monthly-0108. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29543_7332.gif
Figure 1.Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
Supposedly price started to form the ending wave c of (a) of of zigzag (a) of .
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Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.
If the supposition in relation to zigzag (a) forming is true its ending wave c of (a) may assume the shape of an impulse or diagonal triangle.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual -08 and Monthly-0108. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29543_7334.gif
Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
Supposedly price started to form wave (b) or (x) of . So far it isn’t known what shape correction itself will assume.
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Figure 4.Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.
Upward zigzag (a) or (w) has formed with approximately equal legs. One should expect downward wave (b) or (x) to develop at least to the 50% mark. Its internal structure may both prompt possible depth of wave (b) or (x), and specify possible shape of the whole correction .
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual -08 and Monthly -0108. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29543_7336.gif
Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
Supposedly descending diagonal triangle has completed. The critical level for this supposition is the ending of its wave . The confirming level is the ending of the first upward wave i? after diagonal triangle.
As long as price doesn’t fix above the confirming level there remains an alternative variant suggesting that double/triple downward zigzag will continue to form. This variant doesn’t contradict the expectations set out in the article Possible trade with an excellent profit/risk ratio..
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Figure 6.Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.
Upward wave i? may have assumed the shape of impulse. After the downward retracement completes in the area of the 106 level the upward trend is expected to resume.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual -08 and Monthly -0108. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29543_7338.gif
Figure 7.Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
Supposedly price started to form ending wave c of (a) of of flat (a) of .
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Figure 8.Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.
If supposition about flat (a) forming is true its ending wave c of (a) may take on the shape of an impulse or diagonal triangle.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.
Reference
[*]The review of the bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]EUR/USD (Annual, 2008)[*]GBP/USD (Annual, 2008)[*]USD/CHF (Annual, 2008)[*]USD/JPY (Annual, 2008)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2008[*]EUR/USD, (Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2008) [*]GBP/USD, (Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2008)[*]USD/JPY, (Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2008)[*]USD/CHF, (Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2008)[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Let's Analyze Zigzag Wave Construction[*]The Impulsive Decline of the Dollar as One of the Possible Scenarios[*]Possible Trade with an Excellent Profit/Risk Ratio[*]Wave analysis[*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comJanuary 28, 2008When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.
Introduction
The market is correcting the current wave counting of the European currencies on the smaller time-frames. The continuation of the dollar’s decline must be connected with the expectations that the Fed will cut rates again this week (tomorrow at 22:15 Msc).
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0108. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
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Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
The continuation of the upward trend doesn’t cancel the continuation of correction , but implies the development of a sweeping wave of b of (a) — refer to the Figure below.
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Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.
Supposedly ending leg in zigzag b of (a) is forming more sweeping than leg , demonstrating a guideline of alternation in zigzags (refer to pages 139-140 of my book).
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual -08 and Monthly-0108. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
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Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
The continuation of the upward trend doesn’t cancel the continuation of correction , but implies the development of a sweeping wave c of (a)or(W) — refer to the Figure below. So far it isn’t clear what shape correction itself will assume.
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Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.
Supposedly ending leg c of (a) in zigzag (a)or(w) is forming more sweeping than leg a of (a), demonstrating a guideline of alternation in zigzags (refer to pages 139-140 of my book ).
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual -08 and Monthly -0108. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
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Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
The descending diagonal triangle might be completed. The critical level for this supposition is the ending of its wave . The confirming level is the ending of the first upward wave i? after diagonal triangle.
As long as price doesn’t fix above the confirming level there remains an alternate variant suggesting that a double/triple zigzag will continue to form. Such a variant doesn’t cancel the expectations set out in the article Possible trade with an excellent profit/risk ratio.
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Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.
Upward wave i? might have assumes the shape of an impulse, while retracement ii? is completed practically at the optimal Fibo level. It is logical to expect the upward trend to resume.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual -08 and Monthly -0108. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
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Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
The continuation of the downward trend doesn’t cancel the continuation of correction , but implies the development of wave b of (a) in the form of ordinary zigzag — refer to the Figure below.
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Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.
If this is the case the length of ending leg of zigzag b of (a) may correspond to 62%..78% of the length of its leg of b.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.
Reference
[*]The review of the bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]EUR/USD (Annual, 2008)[*]GBP/USD (Annual, 2008)[*]USD/CHF (Annual, 2008)[*]USD/JPY (Annual, 2008)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2008[*]EUR/USD, (Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2008) [*]GBP/USD, (Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2008)[*]USD/JPY, (Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2008)[*]USD/CHF, (Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2008)[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Let's Analyze Zigzag Wave Construction[*]The Impulsive Decline of the Dollar as One of the Possible Scenarios[*]Possible Trade with an Excellent Profit/Risk Ratio[*]Wave analysis[*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comJanuary 29, 2008When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.
Introduction
As it often happens before the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision expected today at 22:15 msc. the Forex market is at a standstill while the wave picture reflects the expectations of its participants.
In this case analyzing short-term and mid-term time-frames we can say that participants are expecting the dollar’s decline. But the wave picture on the bigger time-frames says that an optimal duration of the current correction in favor of the dollar hasn’t been reached yet.
The charts in this forecast reflect this very scenario. And if expectations of the market participants aren’t disappointed, I consider it to be the most probable at the moment.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0108. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
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Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
The continuation of the upward trend doesn’t cancel the development of correction , but it implies the development of a sweeping wave of b of (a).
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual -08 and Monthly-0108. Refer to Figure 2 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29562_7383.gif
Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
The continuation of the upward trend doesn’t cancel the development of correction , but it implies the development of a sweeping wave c of (a)or(W). It isn’t clear yet what shape correction will take on.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual -08 and Monthly -0108. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
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Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
Scenario suggesting that downward double zigzag will continue to form isn’t ruled out. Such a variant doesn’t spoil the expectations set out in the article Possible trade with an excellent profit/risk ratio.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual -08 and Monthly -0108. Refer to Figure 4 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29562_7385.gif
Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
The current development of the supposed horizontal triangle suggests that price will continue to fall and wave b of (a) will form in the shape of ordinary zigzag.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.
Reference
[*]The review of the bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]EUR/USD (Annual, 2008)[*]GBP/USD (Annual, 2008)[*]USD/CHF (Annual, 2008)[*]USD/JPY (Annual, 2008)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2008[*]EUR/USD, (Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2008) [*]GBP/USD, (Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2008)[*]USD/JPY, (Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2008)[*]USD/CHF, (Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2008)[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Let's Analyze Zigzag Wave Construction[*]The Impulsive Decline of the Dollar as One of the Possible Scenarios[*]Possible Trade with an Excellent Profit/Risk Ratio[*]Wave analysis[*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comJanuary 30, 2008When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.
Introduction
1) Forex participants’ and my expectations were proved, the dollar weakened once the interest rate was cut by the Fed. At the same time the wave picture on the larger time-frames shows that the optimum duration of the current correction in favor of the dollar has not been reached yet.
2) Monthly wave analysis for February 2008 will be released at the weekend.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0108. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
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Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
Wave b of (a) has reached the beginning of wave a of (a), which supposes that the local trend will reverse downwards in the nearest future within the limits of the current correction. The structure of the downward price movement may show a possible pattern of the whole correction .
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Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.
As it usually happens with zigzags, the second leg of b has formed and it is wider than the first one. It confirms the alternation guidelines for zigzags (see p.p. 139-140 of my book).
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0108. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29570_7401.gif
Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
Supposed zigzag (a) or (w) has completed around 38% mark, having fulfilled the minimum requirements for the fourth impulse waves. That is why this zigzag may be wave , confirming alternation guidelines for impulses. The structure of the last price movement will show correct variant of the wave counting.
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Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.
The second leg c of (a) of the zigzag has formed and it is wider than the first one. It confirms the alternation guidelines for zigzags (see p.p. 139-140 of my book).
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0108. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29570_7403.gif
Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
Supposedly, the downward diagonal triangle has been completed. Its wave ending is the critical level for this supposition. The ending of the first upward wave i? after the diagonal triangle is the confirmatory level.
While the price is not fixed above the confirmatory level the alternate variant remains valid. It supposes further forming of the double/triple downward zigzag . This variant does not contradict the expectations given in article Possible trade with an excellent profit/risk correlation.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29570_7404.gif
Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.
Supposedly, upward wave i? has assumed the shape of the impulse and retracement ii? is almost completed. Upward trend may be expected to resume.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0108. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29570_7405.gif
Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
Wave b of (a) has crossed the beginning of wave a of (a), it supposes the nearest reverse of the local trend upwards within the limits of the current correction. The structure of the upward price movement may make a hint at the possible pattern of the whole correction .
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Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.
If the supposition is correct the length of the final leg of zigzag b of (a) may correspond to 50%..62% of the length of its leg of b.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.
Reference
[*]The review of the bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) [*]EUR/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]GBP/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]USD/JPY (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]USD/CHF (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2008 [*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2008) [*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2008) [*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2008) [*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2008) [*]Imaginary Skewer [*]Let's Analyse Zigzag Wave Construction[*]The Impulsive Decline of the Dollar as One of the Possible Scenarios[*]Possible Trade with an Excellent Profit-Risk Correlation [*]Wave Analysis[*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market [*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comJanuary 31, 2008When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory
Introduction
Possible variants of price movement within the limits of the accepted scenarios will be considered in the Monthly wave analysis for February 2008, which will be released at the weekend.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0108. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
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Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
Wave b of (a) has reached the beginning of wave a of (a), which supposes that the local trend will reverse downwards in the nearest future within the limits of the current correction. The structure of the downward price movement may show a possible pattern of the whole correction .
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29583_7420.gif
Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.
As it usually happens with zigzags, the second leg of b has formed and it is wider than the first one. It confirms the alternation guidelines for zigzags (see p.p. 139-140 of my book).
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0108. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29583_7421.gif
Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
Wave may be completed already, it has fulfilled the minimum requirements for the fourth impulse waves. If it is correct then the alternation guidelines for impulses are being fulfilled: the second wave is a flat, the fourth one is a zigzag. The structure of further downward price movement will suggest a correct variant of the wave counting.
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Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.
The second leg c of zigzag ? has formed and it is wider than the first one. It confirms the alternation guidelines for zigzags (see p.p. 139-140 of my book).
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0108. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29583_7423.gif
Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
Supposedly, the downward diagonal triangle has been completed. Its wave ending is the critical level for this supposition. The ending of the first upward wave i? after the diagonal triangle is the confirmatory level.
While the price is not fixed above the confirmatory level the alternate variant remains valid. It supposes further forming of the double/triple downward zigzag . This variant does not contradict the expectations given in article Possible trade with an excellent profit/risk correlation.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29583_7424.gif
Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.
Supposedly, upward wave i? has assumed the shape of the impulse and retracement ii? is almost completed. Upward trend may be expected to resume.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0108. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
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Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
Wave b of (a) has crossed the beginning of wave a of (a), it supposes the nearest reverse of the local trend upwards within the limits of the current correction. The structure of the upward price movement may make a hint at the possible pattern of the whole correction .
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Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.
Wave structure of the downward local trend supposes that expected zigzag -- of b is completed.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.
Reference
[*]The review of the bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) [*]EUR/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]GBP/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]USD/JPY (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]USD/CHF (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2008 [*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2008) [*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2008) [*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2008) [*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2008) [*]Imaginary Skewer [*]Let's Analyse Zigzag Wave Construction[*]The Impulsive Decline of the Dollar as One of the Possible Scenarios[*]Possible Trade with an Excellent Profit-Risk Correlation [*]Wave Analysis[*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market [*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comFebruary 1, 2008When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory
Introduction
Most probable variants of price movement within the limits of the accepted scenarios are considered in the Monthly -0208.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
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Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
The updated variant of counting doesn’t rule out that at the end of the last week wave completed. In this case it is logical to expect forming of a lasting correction , if wave (v) of doesn’t form an extension.
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Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.
The upward zigzag supposed in the past week has built up a pair of waves and has transformed into an impulse, resulting in reconsideration of the current counting. Supposedly the upward impulse (v) of is completed. In the nearest future price is expected to move downward.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
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Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
It isn’t ruled out that wave is completed, having fulfilled the minimum requirements for the fourth impulse waves. If it is correct then the alternation guidelines for impulses are being fulfilled: the second wave is a flat, the fourth one is a zigzag.
At the same time it isn’t ruled out that only wave (iv) of is completed. The structure of the downward price movement may suggest the correct variant of the wave counting.
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Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.
The supposed downward wave may assume the shape of an impulse or a diagonal triangle.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
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Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
The descending diagonal triangle may have completed. The ending of its wave is the critical level for this supposition. The ending of the first upward wave ? after the diagonal triangle is its confirmatory level.
As long as price isn’t fixed above the confirmatory level the alternate variant remains valid. It supposes further forming of the double/triple downward zigzag . This variant does not contradict the expectations given in article Possible trade with an excellent profit/risk correlation .
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Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.
Supposedly, upward wave i? has assumed the shape of an impulse and retracement ii? is almost completed. Upward trend may be expected to resume.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29598_7455.gif
Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
The updated variant of counting doesn’t rule out that at the end of the past week wave completed. In this case it is logical to expect forming of a lasting correction , if wave (v) of doesn’t form an extension.
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Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.
The updated variant of counting suggest that corrective wave began to form and the nearest expected price movement is upward.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.
Reference
[*]The review of the bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) [*]EUR/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]GBP/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]USD/JPY (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]USD/CHF (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, February 2008[*]EUR/USD, (Monthly Wave Analysis, February 2008)[*]USD/JPY, (Monthly Wave Analysis, February 2008) [*]USD/CHF, (Monthly Wave Analysis, February 2008) [*]GBP/USD, (Monthly Wave Analysis, February 2008) [*]<A href="http://www.alpari-forex.com/ru/ew_article/25761.html" Imaginary Skewer [*]Let's Analyze Zigzag Wave Construction [*]The Impulsive Decline of the Dollar as One of the Possible Scenarios[*]Possible Trade with an Excellent Profit-Risk Correlation [*]Wave Analysis[*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market [*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comFebruary 4, 2008When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory
Introduction
The most probable scenarios of price movement are considered in Monthly-0208.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
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Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
Wave might be completed. In this case forming of a lasting correction should be expected if wave (v) of doesn’t decide to form an extension.
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Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.
Both in case if correction forms and in case of possible extension in wave (v) the nearest expected price movement is downward.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
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Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
Supposedly wave has fulfilled the minimum requirements to the fourth impulse waves and the alternation guidelines for impulses.
At the same time it isn’t ruled out that only wave (iv) of is completed. The structure of the downward price movement may suggest the correct variant of wave counting.
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Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.
The supposed downward wave may assume the shape of an impulse or a diagonal triangle. The nearest expected price movement remains downward.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
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Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
Supposedly the descending diagonal triangle is completed. The ending of its wave is the critical level for this supposition. The ending if the first upward wave ? after the diagonal triangle is the confirmatory level.
As long as price isn’t fixed above the confirmatory level the alternate variant remains valid. It supposes the further forming of the double/triple downward zigzag . Such a variant doesn’t contradict the expectations set out in the article Possible trade with an excellent profit/risk correlation .
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Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.
Supposedly upward wave ? has assumed the shape of an impulse while retracement ? is completed. The upward trend should be expected to resume.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
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Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
Wave might be completed. In this case forming of a durable correction should be expected, if wave (v) of doesn’t decide to form an extension.
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Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.
Both in case if correction forms , and in case of possible extension in wave (v) the nearest expected price movement remains upward.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.
Reference
[*]The review of the bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) [*]EUR/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]GBP/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]USD/JPY (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]USD/CHF (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2008 [*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2008) [*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2008) [*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2008) [*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2008) [*]Imaginary Skewer [*]Let's Analyze Zigzag Wave Construction[*]The Impulsive Decline of the Dollar as One of the Possible Scenarios[*]Possible Trade with an Excellent Profit-Risk Correlation [*]Wave Analysis[*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market [*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comFebruary 5, 2008When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory
Introduction
The most probable scenarios of price movement are considered in Monthly-0208.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29620_7490.gif
Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
Supposedly a lasting correction has started to build, but it is premature to speak of its shape. If wave (v) of decides to form an upward extension (refer to Monthly-0208), this is the most auspicious moment for its beginning.
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Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.
In case correction forms the supposed wave a of (a) of may assume the shape of an impulse.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
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Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
The ending wave of impulse A? may be forming. At the same time it isn’t ruled out that only wave (v) of is completing. The structure of the downward price movement may suggest the correct variant of wave counting.
At the same time it is possible that only wave (iv) of is completed. The structure of the downward price movement may suggest the correct variant of wave counting.
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Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.
The supposed downward wave may assume the shape of an impulse or a diagonal triangle. Further downward price movement should be expected.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
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Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
The descending diagonal triangle might be completed. The ending of its wave is the critical level for this supposition. The ending of the first upward wave ? after the diagonal triangle is its confirmatory level.
As long as price isn’t fixed above the confirmatory level the alternate variant remains valid. It supposes further forming of a downward double/triple zigzag . Such a variant doesn’t contradict the expectations set out in the article Possible Trade with an Excellent Profit/Risk Correlation.
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Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.
Supposedly upward wave ? has assumed the shape of an impulse, while the subsequent wave (i)? has assumed the shape of a wedge. The upward trend is expected to resume.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
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Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
Supposedly a lasting correction has started to form, but it’s premature to speak of its shape. If wave (v) of decides to form a downward extension (refer to Monthly-0208), now it’s the most auspicious moment for its beginning.
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Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.
In case correction forms the supposed wave a of (a) of may assume the shape of an impulse.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.
Reference
[*]The review of the bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) [*]EUR/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]GBP/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]USD/JPY (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]USD/CHF (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2008 [*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2008) [*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2008) [*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2008) [*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2008) [*]Imaginary Skewer [*]Let's Analyze Zigzag Wave Construction[*]The Impulsive Decline of the Dollar as One of the Possible Scenarios[*]Possible Trade with an Excellent Profit-Risk Correlation [*]Wave Analysis[*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market [*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comFebruary 6, 2008When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory
Introduction
1) The most probable scenarios of price movement are considered in Monthly-0208.
2) Yesterday I received several letters from beginners, in which another «anomaly» in the currency pair EUR/USD is supposed: the second wave of impulse a of (a) of is a triangle. I must disappoint them if we look at smaller time frames (1..10 min) we can clearly see that horizontal triangle (Y) of completes a double three, the shape of which wave has assumed (refer to Figures 1..3, below). However I don’t obtrude my opinion.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
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Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
Supposedly a lasting correction is forming, but it is premature to speak of its shape. If wave (v) of decides to form an upward extension (refer to Monthly-0208), this is the most auspicious moment for its beginning.
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Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.
In case correction continues forming, the supposed wave a of (a) of may assume the shape of an impulse.
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Figure 3. Wave counting on 10 min chart. Variant 1.
Horizontal triangle (Y) of completes double three (W)-(X)-(Y), the shape of which wave has assumed.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 4 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
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Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
The ending wave of impulse A? may be forming. At the same time it isn’t ruled out that only wave (v) of is completing. The structure of the downward price movement may suggest the correct variant of wave counting.
At the same time it is possible that only wave (iv) of is completed. The structure of the downward price movement may suggest the correct variant of wave counting.
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Figure 5. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.
The supposed downward wave may assume the shape of an impulse or a diagonal triangle. Further downward price movement should be expected.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 6 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
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Figure 6. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
The descending diagonal triangle might be completed. The ending of its wave is the critical level for this supposition. The ending of the first upward wave ? after the diagonal triangle is its confirmatory level.
As long as price isn’t fixed above the confirmatory level the alternate variant remains valid. It supposes further forming of an downward double/triple zigzag . Such a variant doesn’t contradict the expectations set out in the article Possible Trade with an Excellent Profit/Risk Correlation .
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Figure 7. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.
Supposedly upward wave ? has assumed the shape of an impulse, while the subsequent wave (i)? has assumed the shape of a wedge. The upward trend should be expected to resume.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 8 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
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Figure 8. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
Supposedly a lasting correction is forming, but it’s premature to speak of its shape. If wave (v) of decides to form a downward extension (refer to Monthly-0208), now it’s the most auspicious moment for its beginning.
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Figure 9. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.
In case correction continues forming the supposed wave a of (a) of may assume the shape of an impulse.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.
Reference
[*]The review of the bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) [*]EUR/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]GBP/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]USD/JPY (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]USD/CHF (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2008 [*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2008) [*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2008) [*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2008) [*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2008) [*]Imaginary Skewer [*]Let's Analyze Zigzag Wave Construction[*]The Impulsive Decline of the Dollar as One of the Possible Scenarios[*]Possible Trade with an Excellent Profit-Risk Correlation [*]Wave Analysis[*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market [*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comFebruary 7, 2008When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.
Introduction
1) Traders who followed my trading recommendations may close their positions with total profit of more than 1000 pips (for the European currencies refer to Daily-010208 and Daily-050208; for JPY refer to Daily-310108, Daily-060208 and Daily-070208).
2) Yesterday the detailed counting of wave of a of (a) of in the currency pair EUR/USD was released. It explained why this wave isn’t a horizontal triangle (refer to Figures 1..3 in Daily-070208 and Figure below).
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Figure i1. Wave counting on 10 min EUR/USD chart.
Yesterday one of the beginners analyzed his mistake. The point was that he mistook the first three waves (1)-(2)-(3) of impulse for a completed wave . And also he mistook the subsequent waves by their external shape for a horizontal triangle.
My variant of counting of this section of the chart on 1 min time frame is given in the following Figure.
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Figure i2. Wave counting on 1 min EUR/USD chart.
The detailed wave counting of waves (1)-(2)-(3)-(4) of impulse .
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
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Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
A lasting correction is forming, but it is premature to speak of its shape. Supposedly its first wave (a) of is taking on a zigzag shape.
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Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.
The supposed wave a of (a) of is taking on the shape of an impulse and is close to its completion.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
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Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
Supposedly the ending wave of impulse A? is completing and it is approximately equal to the first wave of A by length. At the same time it isn’t ruled out that only wave (v) of is completing.
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Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.
Downward wave is taking on the shape of an impulse and it is close to its completion.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
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Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
Supposedly the descending diagonal triangle is completed. The ending of its wave is the critical level for this supposition. The ending of the first upward wave ? after the diagonal triangle is its confirmatory level.
As long as price isn’t fixed above the confirmatory level the alternate variant remains valid. It supposes further forming of a double/triple downward zigzag . Such a variant doesn’t contradict the expectations set out in the article Possible trade with an excellent profit/risk correlation.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29648_7543.gif
Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.
Upward wave ? may have assumed the shape of an impulse, while the following wave (i)? may have assumed the shape of a wedge. The upward trend should be expected to resume.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
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Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
Lasting correction is forming, but it is premature to speak of its shape. Its first wave (a) of may be taking on a zigzag shape.
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Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.
The supposed wave a of (a) of is taking on the shape of an impulse and is close to its completion.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.
Reference
[*]The review of the bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) [*]EUR/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]GBP/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]USD/JPY (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]USD/CHF (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2008 [*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2008) [*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2008) [*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2008) [*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2008) [*]Imaginary Skewer [*]Let's Analyze Zigzag Wave Construction[*]The Impulsive Decline of the Dollar as One of the Possible Scenarios[*]Possible Trade with an Excellent Profit-Risk Correlation [*]Wave Analysis[*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market [*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comFebruary 8, 2008When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory
Introduction
The expected local correction of the European currencies in favor of the dollar may last until the second half of April 2008 and be rather intricate.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
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Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
A lasting correction is forming, but it is premature to speak of its shape. Its first wave (a) of might be assuming a zigzag shape.
We should wait for the confirmation of the completion of wave a of (a) of before forecasting the depth and shape of the expected correction b of (a) of .
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 2 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
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Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
Supposedly the ending wave of impulse A? projection of which is approximately equal by length to the first wave of A is completing . At the same time it isn’t ruled out that only wave (v) of is completing.
We should wait for the confirmation of the completion of impulse of A of (E) before forecasting the depth and shape of the expected subsequent correction B of (E).
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
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Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
The descending diagonal triangle may be completed. The ending of its wave is the critical level for this supposition. The ending of the first upward wave ? after the diagonal triangle is its confirmatory level.
As long as price isn’t fixed above the confirmatory level the alternate variant remains valid. It supposes further forming of double/triple downward zigzag . Such a variant doesn’t contradict the expectations set out in the article Possible trade with an excellent profit/risk correlation.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 4 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29660_7566.gif
Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
A lasting correction is forming, but it is premature to speak of its shape. Its first wave (a) of may be assuming a zigzag shape.
We should wait for the confirmation of the completion of wave a of (a) of before forecasting the depth and shape of the expected correction b of (a) of .
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.
Reference
[*]The review of the bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) [*]EUR/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]GBP/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]USD/JPY (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]USD/CHF (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2008 [*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2008) [*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2008) [*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2008) [*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2008) [*]Imaginary Skewer [*]Let's Analyze Zigzag Wave Construction[*]The Impulsive Decline of the Dollar as One of the Possible Scenarios[*]Possible Trade with an Excellent Profit-Risk Correlation [*]Wave Analysis[*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market [*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comFebruary 11, 2008When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory
Introduction
The expected local correction of the European currencies in favor of the dollar may last until the second half of April 2008 and be rather intricate.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29676_7590.gif
Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
A lasting correction is forming, but it is premature to speak of its shape. Its first wave (a) of might be assuming a zigzag shape.
We should wait for the confirmation of the completion of wave a of (a) of before forecasting the depth and shape of the expected correction b of (a) of .
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29676_7591.gif
Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.
A pair of possible variants of counting of downward impulse a of (a) of are given in the Figure. I expect the confirmation of its completion in the near-term.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29676_7592.gif
Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
Supposedly the ending wave of impulse A? projection of which is approximately equal by length to the first wave of A is completing . At the same time it isn’t ruled out that only wave (v) of is completing.
We should wait for the confirmation of the completion of impulse of A of (E) before forecasting the depth and shape of the expected subsequent correction B of (E).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29676_7593.gif
Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.
One of the possible variants of counting of downward impulse is given in the Figure. I expect a confirmation of its completion in the near-term.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29676_7594.gif
Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
The descending diagonal triangle may be completed. The ending of its wave is the critical level for this supposition. The ending of the first upward wave ? after the diagonal triangle is its confirmatory level.
As long as price isn’t fixed above the confirmatory level the alternate variant remains valid. It supposes further forming of double/triple downward zigzag . Such a variant doesn’t contradict the expectations set out in the article Possible trade with an excellent profit/risk correlation.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29676_7595.gif
Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.
Sequence of waves 1-2, 1-2 may be forming. After the completion of supposed wave ii? the upward trend should be expected to resume.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29676_7596.gif
Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
A lasting correction is forming, but it is premature to speak of its shape. Its first wave (a) of may be assuming a zigzag shape.
We should wait for the confirmation of the completion of wave a of (a) of before forecasting the depth and shape of the expected correction b of (a) of .
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29676_7597.gif
Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.
A pair of possible variants of counting of upward impulse a of (a) of are given in the Figure. I expect a confirmation of its completion in the near-term.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.
Reference
[*]The review of the bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) [*]EUR/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]GBP/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]USD/JPY (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]USD/CHF (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2008 [*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2008) [*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2008) [*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2008) [*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2008) [*]Imaginary Skewer [*]Let's Analyze Zigzag Wave Construction[*]The Impulsive Decline of the Dollar as One of the Possible Scenarios[*]Possible Trade with an Excellent Profit-Risk Correlation [*]Wave Analysis[*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market [*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comFebruary 12, 2008When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory
Introduction
The expected local correction of the European currencies in favor of the dollar may last until the second half of April 2008 and be rather intricate.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29687_7610.gif
Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
A lasting correction is forming, but it is premature to speak of its shape. Its first wave (a) of might be assuming a zigzag shape.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29687_7611.gif
Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.
It isn’t ruled out that correction b of (a) is completed already. In this case the second leg c of (a) of the supposed zigzag (a) of may be comparable by length with its first leg (perhaps in terms of Fibonacci coefficient).
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29687_7612.gif
Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
Supposedly the ending wave of impulse A? projection of which is approximately equal by length to the first wave of A is completing . At the same time it isn’t ruled out that only wave (v) of is completing.
We should wait for the confirmation of the completion of impulse of A of (E) before forecasting the depth and shape of the expected subsequent correction B of (E).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29687_7613.gif
Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.
One of the possible variants of counting of downward impulse is given in the Figure. I expect a confirmation of its completion in the near-term.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29687_7614.gif
Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
The descending diagonal triangle may be completed. The ending of its wave is the critical level for this supposition. The ending of the first upward wave ? after the diagonal triangle is its confirmatory level.
As long as price isn’t fixed above the confirmatory level the alternate variant remains valid. It supposes further forming of double/triple downward zigzag . Such a variant doesn’t contradict the expectations set out in the article Possible trade with an excellent profit/risk correlation.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29687_7615.gif
Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.
Sequence of waves 1-2, 1-2 may be forming. After the completion of supposed wave ? the upward trend should be expected to resume.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29687_7616.gif
Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
A lasting correction is forming, but it is premature to speak of its shape. Its first wave (a) of may be assuming a zigzag shape.
We should wait for the confirmation of the completion of wave a of (a) of before forecasting the depth and shape of the expected correction b of (a) of .
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29687_7617.gif
Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.
It isn’t ruled out that correction b of (a) is completed already. In this case the second leg c of (a) of the supposed zigzag (a) of may be comparable by length with its first wave (perhaps in terms of Fibonacci coefficient ).
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.
Reference
[*]The review of the bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) [*]EUR/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]GBP/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]USD/JPY (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]USD/CHF (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2008 [*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2008) [*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2008) [*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2008) [*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2008) [*]Imaginary Skewer [*]Let's Analyze Zigzag Wave Construction[*]The Impulsive Decline of the Dollar as One of the Possible Scenarios[*]Possible Trade with an Excellent Profit-Risk Correlation [*]Wave Analysis[*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market [*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comFebruary 13, 2008When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory
Introduction
1) The expected local correction of the European currencies in favor of the dollar may last until the second half of April 2008 and be rather intricate.
2) Taking into consideration some indefiniteness of wave picture on smaller time-frames it is better to trail protective stop orders in positions opened in favor of the dollar or even to close them with small profit.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29696_7637.gif
Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
A lasting correction is forming, but it is premature to speak of its shape. Its first wave (a) of might be assuming a zigzag shape.
The second leg c of (a) of the supposed zigzag (a) of may be comparable by length with its first leg (perhaps in terms of Fibonacci coefficient).
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 2 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29696_7638.gif
Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
Supposedly either wave of impulse A? or its first subwave (i) of is completed. Further price rise will speak in favor of the completion of wave of A?.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29696_7639.gif
Figure 3. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.
One of the possible variants of counting is given in the Figure.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 4 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29696_7640.gif
Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
For the last month practically horizontal but ambiguous knot has formed allowing different interpretations.
The descending diagonal triangle may be completed. The ending of its wave is the critical level for this supposition. The ending of the first upward wave ? after the diagonal triangle is its confirmatory level.
As long as price isn’t fixed above the confirmatory level the alternate variant remains valid. It supposes further forming of double/triple downward zigzag . Such a variant doesn’t contradict the expectations set out in the article Possible trade with an excellent profit/risk correlation.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29696_7641.gif
Figure 5. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.
Sequence of waves 1-2, 1-2 may have formed. After the completion of supposed wave ? the upward trend should be expected to resume.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 6 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29696_7647.gif
Figure 6. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
A lasting correction is forming, but it is premature to speak of its shape. Its first wave (a) of may be assuming a zigzag shape.
The second leg c of (a) of the supposed zigzag (a) of may be comparable by length with its first wave (perhaps in terms of Fibonacci coefficient ).
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.
Reference
[*]The review of the bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) [*]EUR/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]GBP/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]USD/JPY (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]USD/CHF (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2008 [*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2008) [*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2008) [*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2008) [*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2008) [*]Imaginary Skewer [*]Let's Analyze Zigzag Wave Construction[*]The Impulsive Decline of the Dollar as One of the Possible Scenarios[*]Possible Trade with an Excellent Profit-Risk Correlation [*]Wave Analysis[*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market [*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comFebruary 14, 2008When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory
Introduction
The expected local correction of the European currencies in favor of the dollar may last until the second half of April 2008 and be rather intricate.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29710_7663.gif
Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
A lasting correction is forming, but it is premature to speak of its shape. Its first wave (a) of might be assuming a zigzag shape.
The second leg c of (a) of the supposed zigzag (a) of may be comparable by length with its first leg (perhaps in terms of Fibonacci coefficient).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29710_7664.gif
Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.
Correction b of (a) may be assuming the shape of a triple zigzag. If this supposition is true its completion should be expected in the near term.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29710_7665.gif
Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
Supposedly impulse A? is completed. If the supposition is true wave B? may assume a zigzag shape and reach 38%..50% of limits.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29710_7666.gif
Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.
Supposedly upward impulse of B is completing.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29710_7667.gif
Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
For the last month practically horizontal but ambiguous knot has formed allowing different interpretations.
If price fixes above the confirmatory level it will be the confirmation of this variant of counting. But a stockade of wave that formed within a month a practically horizontal knot allows its alternate interpretation (refer to the Figures below).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29710_7668.gif
Figure 6. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
It isn’t ruled out that the ending wave of diagonal triangle hasn’t completed yet. Such a variant doesn’t contradict the expectations set out in the article Possible trade with an excellent profit/risk correlation .
But in this case traders who opened positions on the basis of the above mentioned article should be ready for price decline to the ~ 104 mark.
In this case each trader in accordance with the parameters of his account and accepted trading strategy should choose on his own what to do: wait out a possible price decline (it is good that swaps are positive), close positions now with considerable profit (refer to the Figure below) and reopen positions when price rises again or simply trail protective stop to the breakeven area.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29710_7669.gif
Figure 7. The current value of long positions.
Long positions were open a month ago after the article Possible trade with an excellent profit/risk correlation was released and in accordance with the recommendations given in it.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29710_7670.gif
Figure 8. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 1a.
Possible scenario of diagonal triangle C of (B) forming is given in the Figure above.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 9 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29710_7671.gif
Figure 9. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
A lasting correction is forming, but it is premature to speak of its shape. Its first wave (a) of may be assuming a zigzag shape.
The second leg c of (a) of the supposed zigzag (a) of may be comparable by length with its first wave (perhaps in terms of Fibonacci coefficient).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29710_7672.gif
Figure 10. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.
Correction b of (a) may be assuming the shape of a wave flat. If this is thecase its completion should be expected in the near term.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.
Reference
[*]The review of the bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) [*]EUR/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]GBP/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]USD/JPY (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]USD/CHF (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2008 [*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2008) [*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2008) [*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2008) [*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2008) [*]Imaginary Skewer [*]Let's Analyze Zigzag Wave Construction[*]The Impulsive Decline of the Dollar as One of the Possible Scenarios[*]Possible Trade with an Excellent Profit-Risk Correlation [*]Wave Analysis[*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market [*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comFebruary 15, 2008When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.
Preview
For the last several months I received a great number of letters with a request to continue counting of JPY cross pairs. But in these currency pairs (and not only in them!) the situation is rather nontrivial and an attempt of a simple search of possible variants in each pair separately wouldn’t give an idea of the wave picture in whole.
As a result of searching a solution of this problem I decided to test a mathematical modeling approach within EWA. That’s why this week I’m planning to complete calculations and release an article where the approach itself will be described briefly and an attempt will be made to forecast possible and interrelated price movement until the end of 2009 of the following 10 currency pairs: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, CHF/JPY, EUR/CHF, EUR/GBP, GBP/CHF.
Introduction
The expected local correction of the European currencies in favor of the dollar may last until the second half of April 2008 and be rather intricate.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29730_7701.gif
Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
A lasting correction is forming, but it is premature to speak of its shape. Its first wave (a) of might be assuming a zigzag shape.
The second leg c of (a) of the supposed zigzag (a) of may be comparable by length with its first leg (perhaps in terms of Fibonacci coefficient).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29730_7702.gif
Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.
Supposedly correction b of (a) has assumed the shape of a triple zigzag and is completed. If this is the case price decline should be expected in the near term.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29730_7703.gif
Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
The last upward movement has never formed in the shape of an impulse (refer to Figure 4 in Daily-150208), that allows to consider it to be a corrective structure. In this connection the current counting is changed too.
Supposedly wave of a big downward impulse continues forming while wave (b) of is assuming the shape of a zigzag.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29730_7704.gif
Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.
The second leg c of (b) of zigzag (b) of may be forming. If this is the case the price decline should be expected in the near term.
3 USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29730_7705.gif
Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
For the last month practically horizontal but ambiguous knot has formed allowing different interpretations. If price fixes above the confirmatory level it will be the confirmation of the accepted scenario.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29730_7706.gif
Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.
Supposedly either an upward wedge (wave (i)?), or sequence of upward waves 1-2, 1-2 is forming. If this is the case the further price rise should be expected in the both cases.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29730_7707.gif
Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
A lasting correction is forming, but it is premature to speak of its shape. Its first wave (a) of may be assuming a zigzag shape.
The second leg c of (a) of the supposed zigzag (a) of may be comparable by length with its first wave (perhaps in terms of Fibonacci coefficient).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29730_7708.gif
Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.
Correction b of (a) may have assumed the shape of a wave flat and is completed. If this is the case a price rise should be expected in the near term.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.
Reference
[*]The review of the bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) [*]EUR/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]GBP/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]USD/JPY (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]USD/CHF (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2008 [*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2008) [*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2008) [*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2008) [*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2008) [*]Imaginary Skewer [*]Let's Analyze Zigzag Wave Construction[*]The Impulsive Decline of the Dollar as One of the Possible Scenarios[*]Possible Trade with an Excellent Profit-Risk Correlation [*]Wave Analysis[*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market [*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comFebruary 18, 2008When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.
Preview
For the last several months I received a great number of letters with a request to continue counting of JPY cross pairs. But in these currency pairs (and not only in them!) the situation is rather nontrivial and an attempt of a simple search of possible variants in each pair separately wouldn’t give an idea of the wave picture in whole.
As a result of searching a solution of this problem I decided to test a mathematical modeling approach within EWA. That’s why this week I’m planning to complete calculations and release an article where the approach itself will be described briefly and an attempt to forecast possible and interrelated price movements until the end of 2009 of the following 10 currency pairs: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, CHF/JPY, EUR/CHF, EUR/GBP, GBP/CHF..
Introduction
The expected local correction of the European currencies in favor of the dollar may last until the second half of April 2008 and be rather intricate. .
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29739_7721.gif
Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
A lasting correction is forming, but it is premature to speak of its shape. Its first wave (a) of might be assuming a zigzag shape.
The second leg c of (a) of the supposed zigzag (a) of may be comparable by length with its first leg (perhaps in terms of Fibonacci coefficient).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29739_7722.gif
Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.
But so far there is no confirmation of the completion of triple zigzag b of (a), that suggests insistently its further forming.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29739_7723.gif
Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
Supposedly wave of a big downward impulse continues forming while wave (b) of is assuming the shape of a zigzag.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29739_7724.gif
Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.
The second leg c of (b) of zigzag (b) of may be forming. If this is the case further price decline should be expected.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29739_7725.gif
Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
For the last month practically horizontal but ambiguous knot has formed allowing different interpretations. If price fixes above the confirmatory level it will be the confirmation of the accepted scenario. Probably it will happen only after correction (ii) forms.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29739_7726.gif
Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.
Supposedly either an upward wedge (wave (i)?) or sequence of upward waves 1-2, 1-2 is forming. In the both cases further price rise should be expected if the supposed wave iv? is completed.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29739_7727.gif
Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
A lasting correction is forming, but it is premature to speak of its shape. Its first wave (a) of may be assuming a zigzag shape.
The second leg c of (a) of the supposed zigzag (a) of may be comparable by length with its first wave (perhaps in terms of Fibonacci coefficient).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29739_7728.gif
Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.
Supposedly correction b of (a) has assumed the shape of a wave flat and is completed. If this is the case further price rise should be expected.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.
Reference
[*]The review of the bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) [*]EUR/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]GBP/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]USD/JPY (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]USD/CHF (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2008 [*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2008) [*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2008) [*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2008) [*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2008) [*]Imaginary Skewer [*]Let's Analyze Zigzag Wave Construction[*]The Impulsive Decline of the Dollar as One of the Possible Scenarios[*]Possible Trade with an Excellent Profit-Risk Correlation [*]Wave Analysis[*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market [*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comFebruary 19, 2008When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.
Preview
For the last several months I received a great number of letters with a request to continue counting of JPY cross pairs. But in these currency pairs (and not only in them!) the situation is rather nontrivial and an attempt of a simple search of possible variants in each pair separately wouldn’t give an idea of the wave picture in whole.
As a result of searching a solution of this problem I decided to test a mathematical modeling approach within EWA. That’s why this week I’m planning to complete calculations and release an article where the approach itself will be described briefly and an attempt to forecast possible and interrelated price movements until the end of 2009 of the following 10 currency pairs: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, CHF/JPY, EUR/CHF, EUR/GBP, GBP/CHF.
Introduction
The expected local correction of the European currencies in favor of the dollar may last until the second half of April 2008 and be rather intricate.
1. EUR/USDFor survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
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Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
A lasting correction is forming, but it is premature to speak of its shape. Its first wave (a) of might be assuming a zigzag shape.
The second leg c of (a) of the supposed zigzag (a) of may be comparable by length with its first leg (perhaps in terms of Fibonacci coefficient).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29755_7747.gif
Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.
The supposed correction b of (a) has reached the 62% mark which is an optimal value for a retracement. The wave structure doesn’t rule out that a double zigzag with a triangle in the form of a wave-link of b and with approximately equal legs и of b is forming. For its completion only the ending wave 5 of (C) of of b is needed.
If this is the case the price decline in the near term should be expected.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29755_7748.gif
Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
Supposedly wave of a big downward impulse continues forming while wave (b) of is assuming the shape of a zigzag.
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Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.
The second leg c of (b) of zigzag (b) of may be forming. If this is the case price decline below the 1.94 mark should be expected.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29755_7750.gif
Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
For the last month practically horizontal but ambiguous knot has formed allowing different interpretations. If price fixes above the confirmatory level it will be the confirmation of the accepted scenario. Probably it will happen only after correction (ii) forms.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29755_7751.gif
Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.
”> Supposedly either an upward wedge (wave (i)?) or sequence of upward waves 1-2, 1-2 is forming. In the both cases further price rise should be expected if the supposed wave iv? is completed.
4. USD/CHFFor survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-08 and Monthly-0208. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29755_7752.gif
Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 1.
A lasting correction is forming, but it is premature to speak of its shape. Its first wave (a) of may be assuming a zigzag shape.
The second leg c of (a) of the supposed zigzag (a) of may be comparable by length with its first wave (perhaps in terms of Fibonacci coefficient).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29755_7753.gif
Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.
The last upward movement didn’t form the supposed impulse (refer to Daily-190208). Instead of the supposed impulse correction led to changing the current counting leaving expectations intact in whole.
Correction b of (a) may be completing in the shape of a double three. If this is the case price rise should be expected in the near term.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.
Reference
[*]The review of the bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) [*]EUR/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]GBP/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]USD/JPY (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]USD/CHF (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2008 [*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2008) [*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2008) [*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2008) [*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2008) [*]Imaginary Skewer [*]Let's Analyze Zigzag Wave Construction[*]The Impulsive Decline of the Dollar as One of the Possible Scenarios[*]Possible Trade with an Excellent Profit-Risk Correlation [*]Wave Analysis[*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market [*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comFebruary 20, 2008When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.