I shorted BID yesterday, and it fell nicely today.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjpMTLbKhOI/AAAAAAAACXA/ZLfmNl_zuwM/s400/0503-bid.jpg
I am also short CCL, which seems to have a lot of potential to fall.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjpMTbbKhPI/AAAAAAAACXI/ObPKhzO2kF8/s400/0503-ccl.jpg
InfoSys(INFY) is in a small H&S formation. Plus, when a major stock like this goes down on such a strong day, that's a good sign.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjpLZrbKhFI/AAAAAAAACV4/olGDuYCs-qY/s400/0503-infy.jpg
Retailer JC Penney (JCP) remains below its busted trendline.
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Retailer JC Penney (JCP) remains below its busted trendline.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjpLZ7bKhGI/AAAAAAAACWA/vbNxNOtR-SQ/s400/0503-jcp.jpg
I went long CCJ (the uranium producer) today, and it's already in the green.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjpLaLbKhHI/AAAAAAAACWI/O7EQD30REjY/s400/0503-LongCCJ.jpg
CRDN is shaping up as another prospective long, assuming it breaks above the line I've drawn here.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjpLabbKhII/AAAAAAAACWQ/vq5QARcnHfw/s400/0503-LongCRDN.jpg
WBD has been on a tear for months, but I shorted this one earlier today, and it fell nicely. It is sporting a hefty bearish engulfing pattern, although for a stock that is relatively thinly traded like this, it isn't such a big deal.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjpLarbKhJI/AAAAAAAACWY/zkMJ9XToZ58/s400/0503-wbd.jpg
at 5/03/2007 18 insightful comments
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Labels: $indu, $rut, $spx, bid, ccj, ccl, crdn, infy, jcp, new highs, wbd
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Wednesday, May 02, 2007Bespoke
I guess I first noticed it about a month ago.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjjyqLbKhCI/AAAAAAAACVg/h3rbMv_LwZM/s400/0502-%24bespoke.jpg
I stared at the cover in disbelief thinking, "You have got to be kidding me." I get the fact that Trump will whore himself out for just about anything with his name on it. But putting your name on hotels, condominiums, houses, and even a TV show is one thing. But - - - meat? A grocery item? What's next, toilet paper? ("Now you can wipe your ass with the same quality paper product that I do....")
If you believe - and I hope you don't - that money equals class, you are sadly mistaken. There are plenty of billionaires that don't have an ounce of class, and there are plenty of thousandaires with gobs of it. For a superb perspective on this subject, read Paul Fussell's Class. It is many years old, but it is absolutely on the mark.
Anyway.
Well, the asset bubble kept expanding today, although it moved away from its highs. I watched the Dow cross the 13,250 mark, and at one point I think it was up something like another 130 points. The "melt up" started to simmer, however, and it closed "only" about 75 points higher, yet another all-time-high.
My portfolio has been doing an admirable job of holding its own. In fact, it closed the day virtually unchanged. This is very encouraging to me. If I have constructed a bearish portfolio that can weather this kind of abuse, then I know any weakness will be richly profitable.
Here is an intraday graph of the red-hot Chinese market (which is basically a verbatim repeat of the NASDAQ bubble of 1999). I've drawn a neckline here on what seems to me to be a nicely formed head and shoulders pattern.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjjyqbbKhDI/AAAAAAAACVo/y5Iugu9fLuM/s400/0502-%24china.jpg
The Dow 30 has obviously been the strongest index of late, although its lurches forward seem to be getting more spasmodic. But it certainly has not broken its upward pattern yet.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjjyqbbKhEI/AAAAAAAACVw/rpIEe-xRazQ/s400/0502-%24indu.jpg
My concern yesterday about the candlestick formation of the Russell 2000 was well-founded. I am glad I closed those puts - - and at a very handsome profit, I might add. But I was aggressively re-entering the position today when the Dow was in the +100 points zone.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjjyjrbKg_I/AAAAAAAACVI/NHlrf9v6b0E/s400/0502-%24rut.jpg
The Dow Transports have not been sharing in the glory, and this looks toppy to me:
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The Dow Transports have not been sharing in the glory, and this looks toppy to me:
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rjjyj7bKhAI/AAAAAAAACVQ/8J_h6P_8ga0/s400/0502-%24tran.jpg
As for the $XAU (gold and silver index), I hate for you to think I see an H&S pattern everywhere I turn, but there's really no doubt in my mind as to what we're looking at here.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjjykLbKhBI/AAAAAAAACVY/WNSK4QKj_FQ/s400/0502-%24xau.jpg
Now, it's confession time. As you may recall, I was short BankRate (RATE). I had a stop in place. And, first thing this morning, I overrode it and closed out the position.
That was stupid, it was a mistake, and it was against my rules (in particular, "Never do an ad hoc close.") The stock closed up for the day, but substantially below its highs, and the chart is still a reasonable bearish play. So this is a bit of public flagellation for jumping the gun. I don't do it often, but when I do an ad hoc close, I almost always regret it.
at 5/02/2007 39 insightful comments
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Labels: new highs
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Tuesday, May 01, 2007Learning to Crawl
Today's post will be short, everyone. I had a pretty good day, actually, but looking at the charts, there is frankly not a heck of a lot to say. Some days are just like that.
The rise on the Dow today was actually kind to my portfolio - - it went up some, in spite of its bearish stance. But the hammer pattern shown in the Russell 2000 is a little worrisome. We're not exactly at the bottom of some gigantic slide, so this single candlestick isn't anything horrendous in terms of a turning point, but all the same, a hammer is a hammer, and we need to be extra cautious. For myself, I trimmed my $RUT puts pretty substantially near the bottom earlier today.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rjeew7bKg8I/AAAAAAAACUw/C2yIYGmkgR4/s400/0501-%24rut.jpg
The stock PSB continues to shape up as a potentially great head and shoulders short. Speaking of which, AMR (not shown here) continues to behave very well for the same reasons.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjeexLbKg9I/AAAAAAAACU4/ItBk_K-CIU4/s400/0501-psb.jpg
One stock which has broken its major ascending trendline is BankRate (symbol RATE). Even though it's bounced above the line again, I consider the line broken and therefore am short this stock.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjeexbbKg-I/AAAAAAAACVA/sCGr7UdygvA/s400/0501-rate.jpg
This is a fairly quiet week on the economic announcements scene, and the real excitement of earnings season is over (with the likes of Apple, Google, Yahoo, etc. behind us). So there aren't a lot of fireworks right now, and in many ways stocks seem to be stuck at a more or less equilibrium stage right now. As always, well-placed stops are the most crucial thing to have in place, should the market regain its strength in a big way and start to push higher still.
at 5/01/2007 28 insightful comments
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Labels: psb, rate
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Monday, April 30, 2007Here's Your Pickle Surprise, Pal....
One of the readers of this blog posted a link to an interesting article called that you might find of interest. Here is an excerpt:
"As Grantham points out, a bubble needs two things: excellent fundamentals and easy money. 'The mechanism is surprisingly simple,' he wrote. 'Perfect conditions create very strong 'animal spirits,' reflected statistically in a low risk premium. Widely available cheap credit offers investors the opportunity to act on their optimism.'
"And it becomes self-sustaining. 'The more leverage you take, the better you do; the better you do, the more leverage you take. A critical part of a bubble is the reinforcement you get for your very optimistic view from those around you.'"
"My colleagues suggest that this global bubble has not yet had this phase and perhaps they are right. ... In which case, pessimists or conservatives will take considerably more pain."
So - encouraging in a way, although discouraging in another. I strongly believe, as readers of this blog know by now, that we are in the midst of the hugest Ponzi scheme in human history, and one day it's going to completely collapse. The question is whether that "day" is tomorrow or five years from now. One thing in certain - between now and then, the bulls will persist in posting their taunts here. Although at least to a lesser degree, now that the shield of anonymity has been taken away.
One other article of interest is , emailed to me by another thoughtful reader.
Today is the best day I've seen in a long time for my portfolio. I sometimes wonder on days like this is our national nightmare is finally over. One day does not a trend make (or break), so that remains to be seen. All the same, as you can see from this chart of the $INDU, the big boys gave up some ground, and the cyclic indicators are looking mighty encouraging.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjaEprbKg7I/AAAAAAAACUo/2i-XPcpvkIQ/s400/0430-%24indu.jpg
The NASDAQ Composite, which has been weaker than the Dow, also fell. The key difference is that it was down pretty much all day, whereas the Dow sported a 40+ point gain at one point in the day before shriveling away.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjaEirbKg2I/AAAAAAAACUA/SlnUGqneXQ4/s400/0430-%24compq.jpg
My favorite index, the Russell 2000, fell the hardest. I like what I see here.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjaEjLbKg3I/AAAAAAAACUI/PQDm6U1t8ZQ/s400/0430-%24rut.jpg
The S&P 500 remains above its former resistance, but any further drop will pierce that line and put us back into that gigantic upward-sloping channel.
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The S&P 500 remains above its former resistance, but any further drop will pierce that line and put us back into that gigantic upward-sloping channel.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjaEjbbKg4I/AAAAAAAACUQ/feezlG8M4NY/s400/0430-%24spx.jpg
The Gold & Silver index, which has been mercifully weak, continued to fall today. This is one of the cleanest, prettiest channels around.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjaEjrbKg5I/AAAAAAAACUY/DNLKPFiTlko/s400/0430-%24xau.jpg
As for the $XMI, it has kissed the underside of its former support line and is now heading in a more intelligent direction.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjaEj7bKg6I/AAAAAAAACUg/qPlzAR9mE48/s400/0430-%24xmi.jpg
Ironically, I don't have much time today, so this is going to be a quick post with hardly any specific stock symbols. I offer here a few short suggestions (but not nearly as many as I could.....) There's Akamai (AKAM):
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Ironically, I don't have much time today, so this is going to be a quick post with hardly any specific stock symbols. I offer here a few short suggestions (but not nearly as many as I could.....) There's Akamai (AKAM):
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjaELbbKgxI/AAAAAAAACTY/mZeNbK3-QMg/s400/0430-akam.jpg
Affiliated Managers Group (AMG):
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjaELrbKgyI/AAAAAAAACTg/OnX449B3f8M/s400/0430-amg.jpg
Avalon Bay (AVB):
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjaELrbKgzI/AAAAAAAACTo/4vxA--TaCbE/s400/0430-avb.jpg
MWP is turning down hard:
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http://i2.sinaimg.cn/dy/c/2009-04-12/77339efda312db47b3540d0c04fc7613.jpg
http://i3.sinaimg.cn/dy/c/2009-04-12/760913f166a974727badab2a17b8fc3c.jpg
MWP is turning down hard:
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjaEL7bKg0I/AAAAAAAACTw/zrZ9G6R3Dhw/s400/0430-mwp.jpg
PVH is not as clean as the others, but it has certainly lost a lot of momentum.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjaEMLbKg1I/AAAAAAAACT4/0uDwm-YWZDc/s400/0430-pvh.jpg
Hopefully I will have more time tomorrow. Thousands of people come to read this blog every day, and I'm flattered and grateful for your interest. If the blog is this popular during this air-headed runup in prices, I can only imagine its popularity when we actually enter a honest-to-God bear market. Until then, I can only yearn to trade stupid, except for occasional days like today.
at 4/30/2007 13 insightful comments
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Labels: $compq, $indu, $rut, $spx, akam, amg, apc, avb, mvp
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-30 16:04 编辑 ]
http://news3.xinhuanet.com/photo/2007-04/19/xinsrc_30204041909124211867323.jpg
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-1 12:16 编辑 ]
http://news3.xinhuanet.com/photo/2007-04/19/xinsrc_30204041909124211867323.jpg Friday, April 27, 2007Kick the Clay that Holds the Teeth In
As a true sign of the times, here's a 16 year old girl that is confident her business will make her a billionaire not just in her lifetime, but by the time she's 25. OK, sister, good luck with that.
I've mentioned the correlation between the NZD/USD and U.S. stocks, and I've got a feeling some are skeptical. Here's a graph of these two apparently unrelated financial instruments. You can see the correlation yourself. In fact, it gave a pretty good heads-up about the 2/27 plunge two weeks in advance.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjJeirbKgvI/AAAAAAAACTI/DNNNQNl2lX8/s400/0427-%24nzc.jpg
Regular readers of this blog know that the head and shoulders is a favorite bearish pattern of mine. The way it is supposed to work is well illustrated by MRVL, shown below. The difference between the neckline and the top of the head was about $10, which traditionally is the target price for the fall. MRVL nailed its target to the penny.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjJei7bKgwI/AAAAAAAACTQ/tGMIGFd3V5c/s400/0427-amrmrvl.jpg
My hope is that my AMR short - which has been doing great, thanks for asking - will follow suit as well. There's quite a way to go before the target is reached.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjJeb7bKgrI/AAAAAAAACSo/7Haj9F2Jefo/s400/0427-amr.jpg
I don't have a position in Capital One Financial (COF) anymore, but I've got to say, this is one monstrously large looking topping pattern.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjJecLbKgsI/AAAAAAAACSw/G2ieCtwVvls/s400/0427-cof.jpg
Merrill Lynch (MER), on which I own puts, seems to be turning the corner. RSI and the slow stochastic are in a downturn, and the retracement seems to have played itself out.