Looking closer, it could be argued that there's a head and shoulders pattern in the recent history. Not a textbook-beautiful one, but a visible one nonetheless. That would suggest future weakness. But, again, I truly have no strong view on where energy prices might be going.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RhwRC5oXjzI/AAAAAAAACCE/Sz7Nz_qYSYc/s400/0410-cruderecent.jpg
Having said that, here are a few energy-related stocks with impressive charts. Dril-Quip (DRQ):
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RhwQn5oXjqI/AAAAAAAACA8/oZfEn-lRNeg/s400/0410-drq.jpg
Schlumberger (SLB):
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RhwQoJoXjrI/AAAAAAAACBE/y_JE1jHHixQ/s400/0410-slb.jpg
And Questar (STR).
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And Questar (STR).
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RhwQoZoXjsI/AAAAAAAACBM/juc759EbVYc/s400/0410-str.jpg
A couple of mentions that are not directly energy-related.....first, I got bounced out of Continental Airlines (CAL), but I'm still eyeballing it. I've inched the neckline up a bit to accommodate the price move. This is not as clean a pattern as it was, but it's still worth watching.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RhwQoZoXjtI/AAAAAAAACBU/7GhJ7XXX9HA/s400/0410-cal.jpg
Lastly, Sears Holding (SHLD) continues to be amazing (for bulls). I've mentioned this beautiful cup with handle pattern before. I have no position in it now, but if I were long, I would be delighted. This is an amazing-looking chart.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RhwQopoXjuI/AAAAAAAACBc/zhuMDzUcafo/s400/0410-shld.jpg
That's it for today. Let's hope the market gets a little more interesting soon. Otherwise, we'll have a 9th up day in a row, and it'll be +0.35 on the Dow.
at 4/10/2007 28 insightful comments
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Labels: cal, drq, shld, slb, str
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Monday, April 09, 2007Earnings Season Begins
This week kicks off the Q1 earnings reporting season, and finally we can focus on the real basis of stock value - - earnings - - instead of obsessing whether or not the Fed will adjust rates or not (which, to me, is the most bizarre obsession imaginable).
Last month in my March 19th posting I mentioned American Home Mortgage as a good short play. Last Friday, a market holiday, they dropped an earnings bomb, and today the stock was down over 20% at one point.
What's fascinating to me is how, once again, Fibonaccis predicted a resistance level. The 23.6% Fib level for AHM is $22.43. Today's high price.....$22.45. Remarkable!
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RhqgtxfA-2I/AAAAAAAACA0/uK0x80z0DnE/s400/0409-ahm.jpg
The S&P 500 is sporting a neat little shooting star today. Nothing dramatic, but at least the market closed well of its highs. This market's rationale for pushing higher is getting weirder and weirder. I saw a headline today which said - I'm not making this up - "Market Rises on Interest Rate Worries." Huh? So let me get this straight. The market goes up if interest rates are believed to be going down. And now the logic for going up is that they might go up? Insane.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RhqgkhfA-1I/AAAAAAAACAs/u0FzHTWrYSM/s400/0409-%24spx.jpg
Google (GOOG) is acting pretty interesting lately. I bought some puts on this one today with a stop price of $484.25
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RhqgeBfA-xI/AAAAAAAACAM/7T0tnHuR7cc/s400/0409-goog.jpg
As big as IBM is, I'm not sure if I've ever mentioned it here. As you can see, in spite of the steady rise of the price for the past five weeks, the volume has been getting more and more feeble. Hardly the stuff of great bullish plays.
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As big as IBM is, I'm not sure if I've ever mentioned it here. As you can see, in spite of the steady rise of the price for the past five weeks, the volume has been getting more and more feeble. Hardly the stuff of great bullish plays.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RhqgeBfA-yI/AAAAAAAACAU/wDOYBqRTeTM/s400/0409-ibm.jpg
JC Penney, purveyor of the country's finest fashions, is a candidate for shorting here as well. What I love about these huge, relatively slow-moving consumer companies is that you can usually pick up the deep in-the-money January 2008 puts for the same price as the August 2007s!
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RhqgeRfA-zI/AAAAAAAACAc/AMJN0TcEHGY/s400/0409-jcp.jpg
Lastly, the NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ), which has the advantage of penny-priced options, closed its February 27th gap perfectly today. The low just prior to February 27th was 44.74. The high today.....44.73. Picture perfect.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RhqgehfA-0I/AAAAAAAACAk/-7MYNXgQLzo/s400/0409-qqqq.jpg
For some reason, a lot of people wrote me directly over the long weekend. I received many interesting notes - - all but one of them very friendly. In fact, one of them is so interesting I might ask permission of the author to discuss his theory.
Thanks for taking the time to stop by. See you tomorrow afternoon!
at 4/09/2007 56 insightful comments
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Labels: ahm, goog, ibm
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Thursday, April 05, 2007Pickle Surprise!
Six up days in a row on the $INDU. I'm glad this week is over. Hopefully, after a three day descent, we'll be resurrected a la Jesus on Monday. Who knows......
It's the same story I've been citing on the major indexes. Although we're pushing higher and higher, we're still under that major trendline that was broken on February 27th. I've circled the highest target area. Of course, if we cross above that tinted zone (the former high in February), it's time to return to aluminum siding sales, door-to-door.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RhVilxfA-rI/AAAAAAAAB_c/zoxu358dQS4/s400/0405-%24indu.jpg
Here's an interesting chart for you. These are three moving averages (50, 100, and 200 day) against the $NDX, but I've hidden the prices. I've put an arrow at each recent instance where the 50 day crossed below the 100 day while the 200 day was still moving up.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RhVimRfA-tI/AAAAAAAAB_s/0gl0fGSH70g/s400/0405-%24ndxjustaverages.jpg
Now let's take a look at the same graph, but this time with prices. I've highlighted the price action (all the way to the turnaround point) after each of these instances. Interesting.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RhVimBfA-sI/AAAAAAAAB_k/r6p_AmEq0p4/s400/0405-%24ndxmoving.jpg
I am deeply disappointed - and maybe even a tad disillusioned - that the indexes have pushed past their late March highs. That's not good. It indicates more strength on the bulls part than I anticipated. My waning confidence makes me consider that it is a real possibility we could push onto new highs this month.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RhVimhfA-uI/AAAAAAAAB_0/x1Javcp4-JY/s400/0405-%24spx.jpg
The $XMI graph still gives me some hope. The spurt from July to February made sense. In fact, I mentioned late last summer how bullish the $XMI looked, because it was emerging from a pretty substantial base. But there's no base this time. This is a retracement.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RhVimhfA-vI/AAAAAAAAB_8/1Kb_fKraD5s/s400/0405-%24xmi.jpg
To lift our spirits from such a crummy week, I offer not just one but two videos - - and no clowns are involved. The first one might be handy for that big Easter brunch you are planning. I present.......Pickle Surprise:
at 4/05/2007 52 insightful comments
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Wednesday, April 04, 2007Grace Under Pressure
The market by and large meandered today, moving slightly higher after yesterday's big push upward. The Russell 2000, on which I own the most puts, actually inched down in spite of the other major indexes pushing a bit higher.
The Major Market Index ($XMI) does a pretty good job representing where I think the market is it, which is at the upper reaches of a retracement. For it to move beyond its February highs would require surprising strength. It could happen, and if it does, it's time to return to the bear cave, perhaps for a long while.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RhQS4RfA-qI/AAAAAAAAB_U/f2hNKks0nSA/s400/0404-%24xmi.jpg
The Diamonds (DIA) also do a pretty fair job - this time with some trendlines I've drawn - illustrating the retracement.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RhQQxRfA-nI/AAAAAAAAB-8/T-PGX3MZFug/s400/0404-dia.jpg
Capital One Financial (COF), which I've been mentioning forever, is finally starting to move meaningfully lower. It's about time.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RhQQ0RfA-oI/AAAAAAAAB_E/MykryxRGtjU/s400/0404-cof.jpg
Markwest Hydrocarbon (MWP) has had a huge run up the past few months. But look how the volume has softened up. It has been consolidating for a few weeks. This could mean a breakout, of course. This would be a more interesting short to me if the volume weren't so thin.
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Markwest Hydrocarbon (MWP) has had a huge run up the past few months. But look how the volume has softened up. It has been consolidating for a few weeks. This could mean a breakout, of course. This would be a more interesting short to me if the volume weren't so thin.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RhQQpRfA-jI/AAAAAAAAB-c/fpe7Z4cZucE/s400/0404-mwp.jpg
Pico Holdings (PICO) is something I mentioned as a long a while back. It seems to have run out of gas. I'd actually look to this as a short (with a tight stop) at this point.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RhQQphfA-kI/AAAAAAAAB-k/KGVn1QRKZV4/s400/0404-pico.jpg
Lastly, Ryan Air (RYAAY) is behaving in accordance with its broken trendline - - that is, moving away and down from it. This stock had been hyperbolic until that trendline was snapped.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RhQQpxfA-lI/AAAAAAAAB-s/FAnLNndmLLM/s400/0404-ryaay.jpg
Tomorrow will end this shortened trading week. Someone in the comments section has observed that most recent shortened weeks have been strongly bullish. We'll see if that's true or if people get jumpy enough about three days of a closed market to sell instead.
at 4/04/2007 34 insightful comments
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Labels: cof, dia, mwp, pico, ryaay
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Tuesday, April 03, 2007Bearish Hopes Battered
I'm not even waiting for the end of the trading day to do this post.
Now that the indexes have sliced through the highs of March 26, bearish hopes for a softer market are - for the umpteenth time - destroyed. At this point, only surprisingly weak Q1 earnings........or a totally unexpected world event....is going to slow this market down.
From a charting perspective, the market is in full-blown bull mode, with the only resistance being that major support line that was decisively broken in late February. The market certainly still has more room on the upside.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RhKPudiLgmI/AAAAAAAAB-E/PNAc2lSIJ9I/s400/0403-%24rut.jpg
Since I'm weary of showing potentially bearish charts that get swept up in this bull mania, I'm going to switch hats and offer a few bullish ideas. Dril Quip (DRQ):
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RhKPudiLgnI/AAAAAAAAB-M/EStPHAUaLHY/s400/0403-drq.jpg
Greif.....just look at that volume surge.... (GEF):
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RhKPutiLgoI/AAAAAAAAB-U/ihoxdQftvD8/s400/0403-gef.jpg
Health Net (HNT):
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Health Net (HNT):
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RhKPVNiLghI/AAAAAAAAB9c/Kumc0fLOSuo/s400/0403-hnt.jpg
Holix (HOLX):
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RhKPVdiLgiI/AAAAAAAAB9k/gEcsNeCfvYA/s400/0403-holx.jpg
Jacobs (JEC):
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RhKPVtiLgjI/AAAAAAAAB9s/B7roCohgFCA/s400/0403-jec.jpg
Schlumberger (SLB):
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http://www.pckw.com/diyPIC/joke_2006/200705/2007522233418157.jpg
雄鹰展翅
Schlumberger (SLB):
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RhKPVtiLgkI/AAAAAAAAB90/WLi_nYdaBqM/s400/0403-slb.jpg
Questar (STR):
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RhKPV9iLglI/AAAAAAAAB98/RFMMqnTf7aQ/s400/0403-str.jpg
I'm sure the naysayers that hang out in the comments section are delighted at the misery of the bears (and, more specifically, me!) Well, that's the market for ya. 99 times out of 100, it belongs to the bulls. Days like February 27 come along only once in a blue moon.
I hope some of you find some good fodder in the charts above.
at 4/03/2007 64 insightful comments
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Labels: $rut, drq, gef, hnt, holx, jec, slb, str
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