Close If Price Crosses Above: 45.9
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0320-RIO.jpg
Symbol: ESRX
Why? High-risk trade here, folks! This is a white-hot stock but I think it's out of steam. (Of course, I felt this way about HANS which has continued to shoot higher).
Close If Price Crosses Above: 92.95
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0320-ESRX.jpg
Symbol: FLR
Why? Very nice "lower highs/lower lows" pattern. Suggests a change in trend.
Close If Price Crosses Above: 85.58
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0320-FLR.jpg
Symbol: HP
Why? High-flying oil service sector stock which seems to be in a clear downtrend now.
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Close If Price Crosses Above: 67.87
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0320-HP.jpg
Symbol: IWM
Why? The ETF of the Russell 2000 index, the trendlines I've drawn plainly show this index is pushing hard at its resistance levels.
Close If Price Crosses Above: 74.50
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0320-IWM.0.jpg
Symbol: QQQQ
Why? A head and shoulders in formation, mentioned a couple of times in this blog recently; a break beneath 40.16 would be fantastic for the bears.
Close If Price Crosses Above: 41.92
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0320-QQQQ.jpg
Symbol: PD
Why? This is also a head and shoulders in formation. It has broken beneath its ostensible neckline, only to push back above it again. But at these levels, it's a relatively low risk/high reward trade.
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-12 16:06 编辑 ]
Close If Price Crosses Above: 76.80
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0320-PD.jpg
Symbol: UTH
Why? Similar to the NASDAQ 100, this index has formed a very nice head and shoulders formation and is clearing below its former uptrend. I've mentioned this one before. Again, it's got to break the neckline to have meaning. But it's a honey of a pattern.
Close If Price Crosses Above: 116.22
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0320-UTH.jpg
Best of luck, everyone. It's tough out there! Keep your eyes on the prize.
at 3/20/2006 6 insightful comments
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Thursday, March 16, 2006Hope Springs Eternal in the Bearish Breast
The "Ten Year" post (below) is more interesting than this one, but I wanted to at least mention that today's QQQQ shows a nice bearish engulfing pattern. I've highlighted other recent instances of this candlestick pattern. It doesn't always precede a fall, but it's a pretty good clue.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0316-Engulfing.jpg
Of course, what we want to see this lead up to is a break below 40.16 on the QQQQ, which will turn this into Peanut Butter Jelly Time.
at 3/16/2006 10 insightful comments
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Thursday, March 16, 2006The Ten Year View
I remain confounded at the market's rise, but you can't argue with price action.
I would like for you to look at a view I usually don't show here - the ten year view - of these various markets. I'll say very little about these, relying on you to draw your own conclusions. Remember that clicking any image makes a larger one come up. These graphs were up-to-date as of the market's close March 15, 2006.
Here, first, is the Dow Jones Industrial Average. You can see an array of Fibonacci fans (which are actually coming all the way back from 1932) that help us see where prices are "clinging". The recent year's price action has been unusually strong, but you can still see the minor resistance line I've drawn.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0315-INDUTen.jpg
Next is the Russell 2000, which has been especially stong lately. Prices are up against the limits of an ascending wedge.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0315-RUT.jpg
Next is the S&P 500 which, like the Dow, has Fibonacci fans from very long ago shown on it as well as the more minor year-long resistance level.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0315-SPXTen.jpg
Now just look at the Dow Transports. Does anyone besides me think these are just a touch pricey? That the graph is basically a hockey stick? Incredible. Notice, however, in spite of its rise, how it is already on the "wrong" side of its ascending trendline.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0315-TRAN.jpg
The Dow Utilities, mentioned here about a week ago, seem to be prone to breaking a head & shoulders formation; this index is already on the bearish side of its major ascending trendline.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0315-UTIL.jpg
And last but not least is the volatility index, the VIX. The sea change here is that the "fear" levels remained in a consistent range for years and years. But in the past couple of years, the VIX has plunged to never-before-seen lows, indicating a level of confidence (or complacency, if you prefer) never before witnessed.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0315-VIX.jpg
My dread fear is that we poor bears are going to wind up with the mindset Abbie Hoffman was in when he wrote his suicide note: "It's too late. We can't win. They've gotten too powerful." Nooooooooooo!
at 3/16/2006 10 insightful comments
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Tuesday, March 14, 2006Waiting for Godot
Sigh.
Well, the market was quite strong again today. The ETFs SPY (S&P 500) and DIA (Dow 30) hit record highs.
It always seems just when the cup of doom is handed to the bears to drink, it gets snatched away (OK, not sure where that peculiar metaphor came from, but it has a certain ring to it!)
Below is, once again, the QQQQ shown in its head & shoulders formation. The neckline is as plain as day. The price has scurried away from the neckline, and until it breaks it, the head & shoulders is just "in formation" and otherwise meaningless.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0314-QQQQ.jpg
One buy recommendation I was going to suggest two days ago (honest!) was Google. The reason is that this stock does a smashing job "obeying" its Fibonacci retracement levels. I've noted them below with red circles.
It had been beat up so badly last week by bad news that it was right up against support. It has since moved smartly upward. I wouldn't be inclined to buy it at this point, since the risk is higher, but it's still intriguing to see the Fibs in action. The light green rectangles, by the way, are simply price gaps which I've highlighted.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0314-GOOGFibs.jpg
at 3/14/2006 4 insightful comments
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Monday, March 13, 2006Tug-Of-War Continues
The epic battle between the bears and the bulls rages on!
Look at the daily chart below of the Russell 2000 index (equivalent ETF is symbol IWM; index symbol is $RUT). Actually, $RUT is a pretty good symbol for this, since that's what the market seems stuck in......in any case, take note of the resistance line at the top, and the numerous times the prices have bounced away from resistance. Also take note of the most recent price action (boxed in green) where the prices seem to violate the resistance, implying a push above and beyond these levels.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0313-RUTDaily.jpg
This is where the battle is being waged, because the bulls are trying to push prices clearly above resistance whereas the bears are trying to push it below. What's fascinating to me is that, even on a much finer granularity of time (minutes versus days) you can see this tug-of-war being played out. Note well the trendline, still shown here, and how prices seem to get shoved above and below it in spurts. Most interesting to me today is how prices were once again pushed beneath the resistance line after an early, quick run-up to try to break through.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0313-RUTIntraday.jpg
What this has all boiled down to, on a daily basis, is another exquisite shooting star candlestick formation. I remain frustrated that the market doesn't move downward in earnest, but instead is in this vexing state of equilibrium. Everyone - bulls and bears alike - is looking for a trend. The endless waiting will make the eventual break (in either direction) that much more dramatic.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0313-RUTCandle.jpg
at 3/13/2006 4 insightful comments
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Friday, March 10, 2006Happy Sixth Anniversary!
It was six years ago today that the NASDAQ Composite peaked. Here's a percentage graph of what's happened since then. Cheers, everyone!
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0310-SixYears.jpg
at 3/10/2006 2 insightful comments
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In the same post, I apologized for my not-so-hot recommendations to short Hansen Natural (HANS). When I originally recommended this as a short, the stock was about $101. They posted great earnings after the close yesterday, and it opened this morning at $107, blowing out the position.
What's interesting, though, is that the stock actually ended up down for the day, as shown in the graph below. Indeed, this is a big, fat bearish engulfing pattern on gigantic volume.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0309-HANS.jpg
So perhaps I was too hasty with my apology! But the fact is that when the stock opened at $107 this morning, that was the time to get out. There was no way to tell the stock would end up down or end up at $130. Once a stop is violated, you get out, and you get out at once. It's heartening to see I didn't screw up this analysis as badly as I feared, but I stick by my "always have a stop" rule.
I'll add one more thing to this assertion - the QQQQ is closer than ever to breaking below its head and shoulders pattern, as you can see below. If the QQQQ breaks below 40.16, I predict a rapid 9% decline in the NASDAQ 100. This prediction is invalidated if the QQQQ crosses above 42.01.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0309-QQQQ.jpg
Now, let's turn our attention to that debate I mentioned!
So I'm sure the fundmental analysis when the stock was $100 told a great story. But the trend ended, and the chart would have told you that. Buying puts on this sucker would have netted you hundreds of percent in gains. Such is the power of technical analysis.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0309-BMHC.2.jpg
Good luck, everyone. Keep those comments coming!
at 3/09/2006 11 insightful comments
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Thursday, March 09, 2006HANS Earnings & $UTIL Breakdown
First off, looks like I blew the HANS short recommendation. This company came out with stellar earnings this morning, and pre-market bidding looks like it'll open at a new lifetime high. Ah, well; can't win 'em all, folks. The key is that we had a stop in place, we take the loss, and we move on. With a stock like this, it's hard to know if it'll ever stop rising!
In retrospect, the problem with my analysis on HANS was the lack of analysis. This chart was not in any particular technical formation per se. I made the worst of errors of charting - projecting what I thought might happen based on a very small set of supporting data (in this instance, what looked like a double top). So, again, this was not a real pattern at all (such as a wedge or a saucer). So I'm disappointed in myself in being so hasty; that was a lousy analysis and a lousy recommendation.
Let's look at something which does have a good pattern and is probably more important to the market in general - the Dow Utilities. As you can see from the graph below, there are two very bearish situations with this chart. First, the very large ascending trendline going back over three years was broken a number of weeks ago. Second, there is a very plain head & shoulders pattern which I've highlighted here for you. So we've got a bit of a one-two punch.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0309-UTIL.0.jpg
The likely subsequent drop in this market would portend even higher interest rates as well as additional weakness in the market overall.
at 3/09/2006 12 insightful comments
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Tuesday, March 07, 2006Give Yourself a HANS
This one's out of gas, folks.
Up 5,500% over the past few years. I'd short it here with a stop at $104.80
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0307-HANS.jpg
at 3/07/2006 4 insightful comments
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Tuesday, March 07, 2006QQQQ Judgment Day
A short and sweet intraday post here.
It's simple - QQQQ is nearing both a major support trendline as well as a potential break in a head & shoulders formation.
If the QQQQ breaks below 40.50, it's time to party, bears.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0307-QQQQ.jpg
While I have your attention, check out the massive H&S on symbol MTH (mentioned weeks ago here).
at 3/07/2006 1 insightful comments
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Monday, March 06, 2006Da Bears
I've got to start off today's blog (posted to you from overcast Las Vegas, Nevada) with a salute to the clown who wrote, "Wow, if this short recommendation is as good as your AAPL, NTRI, and OIH short recommendations then I am in for a treat." This nimrod (anonymous, of course) was scoffing at my suggestion to short ADSK.
What tickles me is that all FOUR of those recommendations (ADSK, AAPL, NTRI, OIH) have been just stellar. The puts on them are up big-time. So - - there's yer treat, pal.
Anyhoo - - obviously today was another dandy day for the bears. Instead of harping on that, let me do something a bit unusual and point out two fine looking bullish charts in this environment.
One of them, TradeStation, has had a marvelous breakout on just amazing volume. This is absolutely what you want to see - strong, higher prices on soaring volume. It's particularly impressive considering the very weak environment of late:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0306-TRAD.jpg
The other is one I've cited numerous times, and I'm sorry, this is just such a gorgeous chart I need to share it again. Qwest - symbol Q - is just a beautiful inverted head & shoulders with, once again, good solid volume behind the rise.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0306-Q.jpg
As for the market's modest fall.......there's not a heck of a lot I can add. My positions are pretty much identical to what I've cited already, and they're all doing terrific. I have no idea if this will finally be the beginning of "the big one" (although I'm kind of weary of waiting!)
But Friday's shooting star pattern, couple with today's follow-through weakness (which took out some recent support levels among the indices) can only be perceived as encouraging for those who believe the market is going to fall in a very meaningful way this year.
And, in a nod to the Oscars, I'll close by saying.......Good Night, and Good Luck.
at 3/06/2006 1 insightful comments
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Friday, March 03, 2006That's The Way (Uh-Huh, Uh-Huh)
Well, well, well. Quite a day, eh, kids?
The bulls had control until 1:55 p.m. EST when the Dow was up about 80 points. At that point, the market starteed falling, and all the indexes I follow ended the day down.
This is a really powerful reversal day, exhibiting "shooting star" candlestick patterns on many charts.
Here, for example, is the Russell 2000 ETF (symbol IWM). Just look at the size of that star! (If you don't know the term, you can read about it here). As always, click the image to see a much bigger version.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0302-IWMStar.jpg
Looking at the longer-term trend, below is a daily graph of the S&P 500. Notice the ascending trendline. The price has pushed up against this resistance level several times over the past year or so. My view is that the index is going to start pulling away (and down) from this resistance. The S&P crossing above $1,300 would negate this view, at least in the short term.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0302-SPXWaning.jpg
at 3/03/2006 5 insightful comments
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Wednesday, March 01, 2006Another Swipe at ADSK
Here's a nice, clean trade for you.
ADSK collapsed through its long term ascending trendline last November. Now, nearly four months later, it's retraced to the upper resistance of its descending channel.
Shorting this - or buying puts - with a stop above $42.25 seems like a good trade to me.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0301-ADSK.jpg
at 3/01/2006 3 insightful comments
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Tuesday, February 28, 2006$18 Billion in 8 Minutes
I've been watching the stock market a very long time - something like 25 years - but I don't think I've ever seen something like what happened to Google (GOOG) this morning.
The stock was cruising along, up a few bucks, even in the face of a somewhat soft market. Then George Reyes, the company's CFO, made some remarks at a conference that growth at the Internet giant was slowing. The stock instantly collapsed, and $18 billion in market cap was wiped away in the span of just eight minutes. As you can see in the graph below, it's recovered a portion of these losses since then (how is THIS for volatility, folks?)
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0228-GOOGPlunge.jpg
What's quite interesting about this fall is that it stayed tightly bounded by the (cue spooky music) Fibonacci retracement levels. The recovery of GOOG over the past couple of weeks didn't push past its former retracement (not by much, at least), and when this atom bomb was dropped on the stock this morning, it didn't fall below the Fib resistance level beneath.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0228-GOOG.jpg
Cool stuff!
at 2/28/2006 6 insightful comments
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