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I've likewise laid out a target for the S&P.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0616-spxtarget.jpg
Stock analysts are paid a fortune each year for completely worthless advice. I'm going to give you some valuable suggestions for $0. Shorts. Or Puts. Enjoy the ride. Here we go:
Bear Stearns (BSC)
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0616-bsc.jpg
Caterpillar (CAT)
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0616-cat.jpg
Cummings (CMI)
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Cummings (CMI)
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0616-cmi.jpg
Diamond Trust (DIA)
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0616-dia.jpg
Hewlett Packard (HPQ)
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0616-hpq.jpg
Monsanto (MON)
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Monsanto (MON)
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0616-mon.jpg
Oil Services Sector (OIH)
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0616-oih.jpg
Union Pacific (UNP)
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0616-unp.jpg
Wellpoint (WLP)
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0616-wlp.jpg
Let's maul 'em next week, guys 'n' gals. Have a good one...
at 6/16/2006 22 insightful comments
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Thursday, June 15, 2006Perfectly Predictable Retracement
Here's what I wrote last night:
Looking at the minute-by-minute intraday chart of the $INDU over the past 30 days, and you can see the market exactly touched the descending trendline. And I did not draw this trendline today, people! I drew it a few days back, so this isn't a retrofitted drawing. It's the truth.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0615-indu.jpg
The fear got squeezed out of the $VIX in just one session. Utterly crushed.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0615-vix.jpg
If the market is down tomorrow and continues down next week, you seriously need to send me a box of Krispy Kremes or something. Because I think that's what's going to happen next.
at 6/15/2006 23 insightful comments
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Answering Your Questions
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0615-suckers.jpg
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Wednesday, June 14, 2006As I Was Saying....
Well. There's our bounce.
As I mentioned late last night, I believed today would be the bounce day. In spite of some serious struggle up and down, the bulls finally got their act together and finished with a Dow close of over 100 points on the plus side.
This will be heartening to the bulls, but they will still be on the defensive. This is a psychological game, folks. It's going to take another nice up day or two before all this worrying about doomsday subsides. People have very short term memories.
At this point, I'd suggest either staying out of the market completely until it's ready to short again or, if you're aggressive, going to the long side. There are some good charts out there for short term long plays. Here's DuPont (DD) for instance with a nice clean ascending channel.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0614-dd.jpg
Another stock that's suffered recently and is at its ascending trendline is Southern Copper (PCU). These kinds of charts represent relatively low-risk short-term plays.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0613-PCU.jpg
I'd say the Dow's probably got another 200 to 250 points on the upside. I imagine we will get back over the north side of 11,000 on the Dow which will cause all the predictable "recaptured" headlines. We need to give the bulls enough rope (and hope) to hang themselves with. So let them have a run at it. The red circle illustrates my retracement target.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0613-indu.0.jpg
The S&P 500 has probably about 20 to 25 points to the upside before the bears can crash this party again. I've again illustrated it with a circle showing the retracement target.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0613-spx.jpg
I appreciate all the nice notes and thank-yous I've been receiving. I enjoy writing this and am glad some people are benefitting from my thoughts on trading. Take care.
at 6/14/2006 13 insightful comments
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-10 18:27 编辑 ]
Tuesday, June 13, 2006A Bounce is Very Likely
I've got to be quick; I've got a plane to catch! I believe:
+ We're firmly in a bear market
+ Any rises should be viewed as shorting opportunities
+ The nature of the market has utterly changed
However, I also think we're very, very, very due for a bounce. A few quick graphs:
The NASDAQ Composite is at a major Fib retracement level.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0613-compq.jpg
The Dow 30 is also at a major Fib level, added to which there is quite a bit of support at this level (see highlighted area in green).
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0613-indu.jpg
The NASDAQ 100 is also at a key Fib level, after been hammered over the past six weeks.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0613-ndx.jpg
And the $VIX has gone stark, raving mad sky-high. This explosion of panic has to subside temporarily.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0613-vix.jpg
One other thing before I go. A few months ago, I tightened up the rules for posting on this blog. You had to be registered. All comments were moderated. And although it cut down on some of the obnoxious messages, I feel that it is impeding the free flow of ideas.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0613-bouncebacks.jpg
My anticipation - - instead of simply tightening up my stops - - cost me a huge amount of missed profits in a matter of hours, and if I want to get back into these positions, it will be at a much higher price and much higher risk. Not good.
So I feel I have royally screwed up by not following my own bearish advice. For those of you hanging tough, my hat is off to you. This is a different market, and the bears are in control. I should have more faith in my own people.
at 6/13/2006 16 insightful comments
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Monday, June 12, 2006Wheeeeeeeeeeee!
Oh, it is going to be SWEET today, fellow bears. It's a whole new ball game. Lots to say tonight...........Tim
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0612-suckonthis.jpg
at 6/12/2006 8 insightful comments
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Friday, June 09, 2006Is that all you bulls can muster?
Sheesh. So much for the hammers yesterday. You bulls had so much going for you. A severely oversold condition (600 points off the Dow in 3.5 days). A huge bounce-back rally yesterday and all the media clatter that accompanies it. The green patch in the chart below represents the entirety of the follow-through rally today.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0609-muster.jpg
Of course, the market fell in the end. I think people are kind of freaked out at recent market activity and didn't want to go into the weekend exposed. So there's still a chance of an upward push Monday. But it's clear to me that we bears own this bad boy.
at 6/09/2006 12 insightful comments
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Thursday, June 08, 2006Amazing, Amazing, Amazing
I tried, people, I really, really tried.
Here's the graph of the S&P on a minute-by-minute basis, pointing out the exact moment when I closed everything and wanted to get the blog posted:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0608-closeitall.jpg
Here is the image of the graph I took at that time illustrating why I felt the NASDAQ had bottomed out for now:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0608-qqqq.jpg
And here's the gorgeous channel on the S&P 500, illustrating a perfect touchpoint on the support line. This was far and away the biggest reason I felt it was time to get the hell out of Dodge.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0608-spx.jpg
As you well know by now, the markets did a total "V" today. This has resulted in more hammers than a Home Depot tool aisle. Here's the NASDAQ Composite:
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As you well know by now, the markets did a total "V" today. This has resulted in more hammers than a Home Depot tool aisle. Here's the NASDAQ Composite:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0608-compq.jpg
The Dow 30 hit its Fibonaaci marvelously.......
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0608-indufib.jpg
....as did the S&P 100........
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0608-oex.jpg
The Gold & Silver index ($XAU) looks so oversold I think it's ready to push back to the underside of its former support line.
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The Gold & Silver index ($XAU) looks so oversold I think it's ready to push back to the underside of its former support line.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0608-xau.jpg
Of course, the big question is: what's next? It's great that we've had such a nice quick ride down (nearly 600 points in just under four sessions). But what now?
I think we're clearly in a bear market now. So the fun is really starting. The key is to avoid the occasional upswings (or even profit from them). With all the hammers around, I've got to believe there's a strong chance we've bottomed out for now and should just step aside until we get back to safer levels. I would mention in passing, however, that the $VIX looks like it's making a nice series of higher highs and higher lows, which suggests that today's late-day surge might simply be another setup for yet another fall.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0608-vix.jpg
I am 100% in cash now and am at least going to wait until 10:00 EST on Friday to see what the market's doing. If it looks like it has any reasonable strength, I think I'm just going to keep sitting this one out.
at 6/08/2006 2 insightful comments
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