巴菲特发表评论呼吁买股票

wohin

巴菲特发表评论呼吁买股票

来自：MACD论坛(bbs.macd.cn) 作者：wohin 浏览：2883 回复：3

沃伦·巴菲特(Warren Buffett)在10月17日出版的《纽约时报》发表评论文章,自己上纽约时报阅读,并尝试翻译,供大家参考:



THE financial world is a mess, both in the United States and abroad. Its problems, moreover, have been leaking into the general economy, and the leaks are now turning into a gusher. In the near term, unemployment will rise, business activity will falter and headlines will continue to be scary.
无论在美国国内还是全球范围，金融世界现在是一团糟。问题更为严重的是，金融危机已经影响到一般的实体经济，并且破坏性呈现井喷趋势。短期看来，失业率将上升，商业活动将衰退，报纸上继续充斥令人恐惧的信息。
So ... I’ve been buying American stocks. This is my personal account I’m talking about, in which I previously owned nothing but United States government bonds. (This description leaves aside my Berkshire Hathaway holdings, which are all committed to philanthropy.) If prices keep looking attractive, my non-Berkshire net worth will soon be 100 percent in United States equities.
然而，我开始买美国股票。这是对我个人帐户而言的，我的个人帐户在这以前只持有美国政府债券。（这里没有涉及Berkshire Hathaway holdings的业务，因为那部分已经承诺全部投入到慈善事业。）如果价格够吸引，我的非伯克撒的净资产将很快百分之百的拥有美国股票。
Why?A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors. To be sure, investors are right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions. But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation’s many sound companies make no sense. These businesses will indeed suffer earnings hiccups, as they always have. But most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now.我的购买遵守了这样的一个简单的原则：当他人贪婪时要感到恐惧，而他人恐惧时要贪婪。几乎可以肯定的是，恐惧正在蔓延，这种情感甚至影响具备多年经验的投资者们。无庸质疑，投资者应该警惕高杠杆与竞争力薄弱的企业实体。但是，如果担心许多具有健全体质的企业的长远发展前景就并非理智。这些企业确实如以前所见到的一样，在赢利上会面临一些小问题。但大多数公司将在5，10或20年后创造新的赢利记录。
Let me be clear on one point: I can’t predict the short-term movements of the stock market. I haven’t the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month — or a year — from now. What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over.
A little history here: During the Depression, the Dow hit its low, 41, on July 8, 1932. Economic conditions, though, kept deteriorating until Franklin D. Roosevelt took office in March 1933. By that time, the market had already advanced 30 percent. Or think back to the early days of World War II, when things were going badly for the United States in Europe and the Pacific. The market hit bottom in April 1942, well before Allied fortunes turned. Again, in the early 1980s, the time to buy stocks was when inflation raged and the economy was in the tank. In short, bad news is an investor’s best friend. It lets you buy a slice of America’s future at a marked-down price.
让我澄清一点：我无法预测的短期变动的股票市场。我不能看出一月或一年后的股票价格是更高或更低。然而，从大体上判断市场终究会走高，无论之前的情绪或经济发生什么。所以你如果想等待知更报春，春天即将结束。回顾历史，在大萧条时期，道琼斯指数于1932年7月8日创下最低点：41点。直到罗斯福1933年3月就任，经济形势依然处于恶化，但市场已经上升了30点。看看二战初期，那时美国在欧洲与太平洋的情况都很糟糕。市场于1942年4月触及低点，当时距离盟军扭转战局还很远。还有，在上世纪80年代早期，购买股票的好时机正是通账肆虐，经济低迷之际。总之，坏消息是投资者最好的朋友。它能让你以低估的价格买到一部分美国的未来。
Over the long term, the stock market news will be good. In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497. 从长期而言，股市整体是趋于利好的。在上一世纪，美国经历两次世界大战，其他的打击，与代价昂贵的军事冲突，大萧条，十多次的经济衰退与金融危机，石油冲击，禽流感疫情，总统因丑闻辞职，然而道琼斯指数从66点上涨到11497点。
You might think it would have been impossible for an investor to lose money during a century marked by such an extraordinary gain. But some investors did. The hapless ones bought stocks only when they felt comfort in doing so and then proceeded to sell when the headlines made them queasy.你可能认为，投资者录得超常表现的一个世纪里亏钱是不可能的。然而有些投资者确实亏了。那些不幸的投资者只在感到放心的时候买入股票，而在报纸消息让他们恐惧卖出股票。
Today people who hold cash equivalents feel comfortable. They shouldn’t. They have opted for a terrible long-term asset, one that pays virtually nothing and is certain to depreciate in value. Indeed, the policies that government will follow in its efforts to alleviate the current crisis will probably prove inflationary and therefore accelerate declines in the real value of cash accounts.如今人们手持现金时感觉良好。实际上情况并非如愿。他们选择了一项糟糕的长期资产，这些资产几乎没有任何回报并且肯定会贬值。实际上，政府努力缓解当前的危机的政策可能会带来通货膨胀，使现金帐户的真正价值加速下跌。
Equities will almost certainly outperform cash over the next decade, probably by a substantial degree. Those investors who cling now to cash are betting they can efficiently time their move away from it later. In waiting for the comfort of good news, they are ignoring Wayne Gretzky’s advice: “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been.” 今后10年权益资产将在相当大的程度上优于现金资产。那些现在倾向于现金的投资者不过是在押注于他们拥有在将来可以有效的决定资产转换时机的能力。在等待放心消息的时候，他们忽视了韦恩雷茨基的意见：“我滑向冰球将去的方向，而不是冰球已在的位置。”
I don’t like to opine on the stock market, and again I emphasize that I have no idea what the market will do in the short term. Nevertheless, I’ll follow the lead of a restaurant that opened in an empty bank building and then advertised: “Put your mouth where your money was.” Today my money and my mouth both say equities我不喜欢发表对股市的看法，我再次强调，我无法预测市场短期的走向。但是，我将实践在空旷的银行大厦里开张的某个饭馆的广告语：“从前你的钱在这里，今天你的嘴在这里。” 今天我的钱和嘴巴都在股市里。

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哲学思想:*19*:

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人们手持现金时感觉良好。实际上情况并非如愿。他们选择了一项糟糕的长期资产，这些资产几乎没有任何回报并且肯定会贬值。实际上，政府努力缓解当前的危机的政策可能会带来通货膨胀，使现金帐户的真正价值加速下跌。

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