有谁真正读过“亚当理论”？ 质疑目前亚当理论的中文译义

zhanglm

有谁真正读过“亚当理论”？ 质疑目前亚当理论的中文译义

来自：MACD论坛(bbs.macd.cn) 作者：zhanglm 浏览：6544 回复：14

英文原版的？或完整的中译文？

有些重要的问题千万不能人云亦云。

这是一个老外对Adam Theory" 评价。

The Adam Theory of Markets, or, What Matters Is Profit
Author
Welles Wilder, quoting a lot from Jim Sloman
Quick Summary
Rethinking one's approach to trading market motion.
Quick Opinion
Fun reading, but a trading method that will lose you money.

Note: a lot of "Adam" comes from one Jim Sloman, who was also the original developer for the "Delta" trading system.  There are times when it is difficult to remember who is saying what; because of this, I attribute the whole of the text to Wilder.  It makes my review easier to read.  I mean Sloman no disrespect (his name doesn't appear as an author, either...).

"What Matters is Profit," is the subtitle of this book, and it's a good description of the philosophy that Wilder writes about.  He has two new ideas for approaching one's trading.  The first idea is one of emotion and attitude, namely that in order to be successful one must "surrender" to the market.  If one ceases to worry about what might happen or what should happen, he states, then one is free to concentrate on what the market is doing, which is where the profit will be made.

His second assumption is that markets have a tendency to keep doing whatever they are doing now.  If they have recently been in an uptrend, then they will continue upwards.  If they have been congesting sideways, then they will continue in their lack of direction.  His contention is that bucking the trend, picking market reversals and other tactics that focus not on what the market is doing now, but what is hoped that it will do in the future, are dangerous and prone to failure.

He has an interesting fable near the beginning of the book in which a daughter is watching her father interpret markets.  She is concerned about his agitation and distress, because he keeps predicting upward motion, and the market keeps going ever down.  Every time he gives her reasons why the market is about to turn upwards, she says, "I know, daddy, but right now it seems to be going down."  Eventually, he gets her point that while he is attempting to pick a top, he is losing out on the profit that is to be had by following the trend.

Wilder then details a method for exploiting the concept of continuing behavior, in which one draws market motion for some amount of time in the past onto a clear transparency sheet, and then flips it across both horizontal and vertical axes to predict future market motion.  The market motion in the past is flipped and aligned with the current market motion, creating sort of a double-mirror image.  So, a small amount of choppiness followed by a long uptrend is copied and flipped to predict an uptrend twice as long as what has gone on before, followed by a small amount of choppiness at the upper end.  He provides some charts as examples of the predictive ability of this approach.

The problem is that "What Matters is Profit" is about as tradeable as "Buy Low, Sell High."  And the motion-copying strategy is another perfect illustration of technical indicator failure.  Markets continue to go as they have gone before, until they don't.  In reality, there isn't any reliability connected to the method or its underlying concept.  An uptrend that is halfway done will go the same distance.  If it were possible to detect the mid-point of a trend, then one could use Adam Theory.  If it were possible to detect ANY aspect of a trend, you could make a killing, but it's just not possible to identify any specific distance along a trend except in hindsight.

Are his examples real?  Yes.  Are there times when Adam Theory really works?  Yes.  Can you find examples in past market motion for any technical indicator, no matter how absurd?  Yes.  But that doesn't make it reliable or tradeable.  Adam Theory is a nice idea, and it makes for good reading, but I can find so many examples of congestion that breaks out viciously and unpredictably, or trends that aborted, or chop followed by trend followed by no motion at all, that using this method as a trading system would be an expensive folly.

It is also fascinating to me that Wilder and Sloman, the creators of "Adam," are also the creators of "Delta", which is nothing but a giant, complex strategy for picking minor, medium and major turning points.  If Adam is all you need, then why bother with market turns when you are concerned with what the market is doing "right now"?

As far as the book's layout, it has a nice flow of general and specific information, with explicit ideas on stop management and prediction adjustment.  As somebody who likes to just get a book and read it, cover to cover, I found it annoying that the first chapter (and excerpts here and there elsewhere) is dedicated to Jim Sloman And His Work.  I understand that Welles likes him a lot, but I don't buy a book on technical analysis so that I can read fond stories about people.  That's what fluff books are for...


这是另外一个老外对Wirler的介绍

J. Welles Wilder Jr. - Market Master
Neil A Costa



J. Welles Wilder Jr. stated his working life as a mechanical engineer, and remained an engineer for just seven years. This overlapped with his investing in the real estate market which he then did full time for a few years. His partners bought him out in the early 1970s.

He commenced 13 years of full-time market research and trading in his ‘retirement’. He became interested in buying silver, and concluded that futures were the best way to gain leverage and tried to learn all he could about futures markets.

The Contributions of J. Welles Wilder Jr. to Technical Analysis
Mr. Wilder has written many articles on trading, appeared on numerous radio and television programs, and conducted technical trading seminars in Asia, Australia, Canada, USA, and Europe. He also developed software through his company Trend Research, Ltd. Australia’s Dawn Bolton-Smith is proud to say she attended two of Mr. Wilder’s seminars in Sydney – in 1986 and 1992. She is also a keen user of the software he developed, ‘One Day at a Time’ (ODAT).

Welles Wilder is best known for his technical indicators – now considered to be core indicators in technical analysis software. These include Average True Range, the Relative Strength Index, Directional Movement and the Parabolic Stop and Reverse.

The following is a candlestick chart of News Corporation, showing Welles Wilder’s Parabolic S&R (dotted lines on the chart itself), his Directional Movement Index and his Relative Strength Index respectively.



Chart 1 – A Gann Analyst 3 Chart of News Corporation

Being a trader at heart, Mr. Wilder understood what were the real factors that determined whether a trader was likely to be successful or not. In an interview in Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities magazine, he stated:

… I’ve found that the most important thing in trading is always doing the right thing whether or not you win or lose… this is market savvy… money management... I would go so far as to say that whether one makes money in the markets depends on whether or not one uses the proper money management – how much you make depends on where you enter and exit the markets.

(Wilder, J. Welles., ‘Wilder’s Back’, Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities, February 1986.)

J. Welles Wilder Jr wrote three books, New Concepts in Technical Trading (published in 1978), The Adam Theory of the Markets (1987), and The Delta Phenomenon (1991).

New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems
(Wilder, J. Welles Jr., New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems, Trend Research, McLeansville, NC, 1978.)

First there were the masters – Dow, Gann, Elliott. Each advanced our knowledge of technical analysis.

Then there was a quantum leap. This quantum leap occurred in 1978 when J. Welles Wilder Jr. published his book, New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems.

In this book Wilder published six technical trading systems. The three considered to be the most significant were the Directional Movement Index, the Parabolic Stop and Reverse and the Relative Strength Index (RSI). Writing this book established Wilder's reputation as one of the world’s leading technical analysts.

The book is divided into 10 sections, as follows:

Section 1 - Basics, The Missing Part of Most Trading Plans
Section 2 - The Parabolic System
Section 3 - The Volatility Index, the Volatility System
Section 4 - The Directional Movement Concept, The Directional Movement System
Section 5 - The Momentum Concept, The Trend Balance Point System
Section 6 - The Relative Strength Index
Section 7 - The Reaction Trend System
Section 8 - The Swing Index, The Swing Index System
Section 9 - The Commodity Selection Index
Section 10 - Capital Management

The Adam Theory of Markets
(Wilder, J. Welles Jr., The Adam Theory of Markets or What Matters is Profit, Trend Research, McLeansville, NC, 1987)

The Adam Theory is about what will make a trader successful. This unusual book shows why the ideas possessed by many traders prevent them from being profitable traders. The book comes to a very simple, but vitally important conclusion about trading – the Adam Theory. Of course, you will not enjoy the book as much if I were to reveal the ‘secret’ in this article! I am sure you already know what it is – but maybe you do not appreciate its importance.

The Adam Theory of Markets is divided into 33 chapters:

1. Adam is...
2. A Fairy Tale
3. To Succeed in Markets We Must...
4. There really is a lot less trading than meets the eye
5. What Matters in Markets? - Price
6. 'Is' versus 'Should'
7. Avoid Arbitrariness
8. Trading Systems
9. What Matters in Markets? - Trend
10. What is a Trend
11. What is the Most Basic Form of repetition?
12. What does Exact Repetition Lead To?
13. What Leads to the Greatest Symmetry?
14. Projecting The Second Reflection
15. Constructing the Second Reflection Chart the Easy Way
16. What does the Prediction Contain?
17. Which Markets to Trade?
18. Review of Market Selection
19. How about Tops and Bottoms?
20. The Most Important Statement About Markets
21. Let Your Profits Run
22. What if we get Stopped Out?
23. Discipline
24. Review of Adam Theory
25. When do we Enter a Trade
26. Market Example - Eastman Kodak
27. Recap of the First Example
28. The Ten Trading Rules
29. The Ten Rules Expanded
30. Market Example - Eastman Kodak
31. Market Example – Coffee
32. Visualisation
33. The Playful Commodity Trader
Appendix

The Delta Phenomenon or The Hidden Order in all Markets
(Wilder, J. Welles Jr., The Delta Phenomenon, The Delta Society International, McLeansville, NC, 1991)

In the early 80's, Welles Wilder® founded the Delta Society International. His purpose was to share the “secret of the perfect order behind the markets”.

This order, the Delta Phenomenon, is the basis of all market movement relative to time. It is the basis of all technical analysis. It is the most basic thing about markets. It is the beginning point. All other methods of technical analysis pale when compared to the fact that there is perfect order in all markets. As you will learn, the Delta Phenomenon is perfect. That is, it always follows the defined discipline that rules it. I have solved the Delta Phenomenon for many different markets over hundreds of years of data and I have never seen a failure in this order.

(Wilder, J. Welles Jr., The Delta Phenomenon, The Delta Society International, McLeansville, NC, 1991, page 41.)

Part 1 The Delta Phenomenon
Part II The Moment of Truth
Part III Intermediate Term Delta (ITD)
Part IV The Family Groups
Part V Medium Term Delta (MTD)
Part VI Long Term Delta (LTD)
Part VII Super Long Term Delta (SLTD)
Part VIII Short Term Delta (STD)
Part IX Trading the Delta Turning Points
Part X Solving for Delta

The marketing of The Delta Phenomenon was a very controversial undertaking, despite allegedly earning Mr. Wilder some US$7+ million from sales.

Conclusion
J. Welles Wilder is possibly the best-known market guru alive today. His contribution to technical analysis has been, to say the least, very substantial. It is appropriate to conclude this article with a selection of the accolades he has received during the last three decades:

Forbes Magazine (October, 1980) – Welles Wilder is "the premier technical trader publishing his work today."

Barron's (July 1984) - "In 1978 the basis of mathematical analysis was expanded when J. Welles Wilder, Jr. published New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems.

Financial World (July 1985) - "Over the years, Wilder has developed more accurate commodity trading systems and concepts than any other expert."

Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities (February 1986) "It's not often that truly original discoveries are made in technical market analysis. J. Welles Wilder, however, lays claim to an entire collection of systems that have reshaped contemporary commodities trading and analysis.”

Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities (October 2002), in an article titled The Titans of Technical Analysis, Welles Wilder was selected as one of the ‘Heroes of Technical Analysis’ with the following accolade:

J. Welles Wilder engineer, turned real estate developer, turned technical analyst, Wilder is credited with developing some of the most widely used and modified technical indicators in the field, from Average True Range to the Parabolic Time/Price System to the Relative Strength Index. His first book, ‘New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems’, remains an important reference for both stock and futures traders.

Now in his 70s, Mr. Wilder has retired and resides on the beautiful South Island of New Zealand.

J. Welles Wilder Jr. is, without any reasonable doubt, a market master.



(Neil Costa Dip.T; B.Ed; Grad.Dip.Ed.Admin.; M.Sc.; M.Ed.Stud.; M.Ed.Admin.; M.A.; FAIM; SIA (Affil.) is national President and an honourary life member of the Australian Technical Analysts Association, and has been a trader for more than 30 years. He has trained, or overseen the training of more than 10,000 traders. Neil is Managing Director of Market Masters Pty Ltd and Vice President of Lambert-Gann Educators, Inc.)

Web Sites: http://www.marketmasters.com.au/, www.lambertganneducators.com.
Email: neil@marketmasters.com.au

[This article was first published in the ATAA Journal, July/August 2004. Reprinted with permission.]

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The giving of advice is therefore contrary to the very objectives of Market Masters Pty Ltd.

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评述：（英文水平不是很高，但我却知道大意）。
1）第一个老外最有意思，先是恭维了亚当理论的正确之处，然后反驳说：“既然”亚当“了， 为什么Wilder又随后开发了Delta交易系统？
2）第二个老外直接了当说出“亚当理论”的秘密：“如何成为成功的交易者，并且分析了为什么有些交易者坚持的观点会妨碍他成为成功的交易人。”


最近读Wilder 的原版英文“New Concepts...."，发现过去学习的Wilder ATR ASI SAR DMI, RSi等指标的中文用法和解释是局部或错误的，至少不是系统的；联系到Bill Williams 的证券交易新空间第一章其实就是亚当理论要做的事，我认为目前网上流行的中文的对亚当理论的解释是错误的。

嘿嘿，Wilder这老头跟世界开了一个玩笑，先是搞了一套经典技术指标；然后推出”亚当理论“反驳那一套技术指标不行；在大家还没明白怎么回事的时候，再搞一套更大更复杂的交易系统”Delta"。

这世界真奇妙！

Wilder这老头真厉害，怪不得第二个老外评价他列在Dow,  Gann, Elliott之后，而且说他使技术分析产生了巨大的飞跃！

冰雪寒香

呵呵.曲高和寡啊.
亚当理论我似乎看过中文的,只是感觉并不怎么样所以就没有重视.
英文的没有看到,现在也不太想看了,楼主如果看完,写个要点提纲如何?
这样大家都能参与讨论了.

无弦琴音客

Originally posted by zhanglm at 2004-11-3 01:21
英文原版的？或完整的中译文？

有些重要的问题千万不能人云亦云。

这是一个老外对Adam Theory" 评价。

The Adam Theory of Markets, or, What Matters Is Profit
Author
Welles Wilder, quoting ...

能翻译出来吗？
这样大家都可以借你的光了。

呵呵。
如果可以的话。
:*19*:

9yangjiang

Delta和Adam Theory所谈论的是有关市场的对称性

9yangjiang

Adam Theory是内部对称
Delta是外部对称

冰火岛坐看云起

原帖由 9yangjiang 于 2007-8-9 22:27 发表
Adam Theory是内部对称
Delta是外部对称

:)

tranfund

大家好，很高兴大家研究《亚当理论》。我在05年曾经花三个月时间译过一稿《亚当理论》，说明一下，内部使用，未出版。网上流行的是一位台湾前辈翻译的作品，我译后半年才得该版简体手抄本，大致看过。我觉得，台版译本，忠于原著，是不错的译本。原著也不是什么宏篇巨著，语言平淡易懂，一般人都看得懂，但一般人也看不出什么太深奥的道理来。所有一切，关乎一种哲学，一种心态，可意会而不可言传。也许只有wilder这样的大师，才能体味各中奥妙。

所谓的symmentry，second reflection chart，我认为只是大师把这种哲学外化而得到的一个简单模型。市场是自我达成的symmentry，如果刻意运用那个模型，那大师也不用开发delta了。

所有一切，也可以用天人合一的东方哲学去解释。人只能顺应天，也就是自然规律，即市场规律，所以人不能战胜市场，而只能去surrender。交易做对，并非因为交易行为本身是对的，而是交易行为被市场验证是对的，也即交易行为符合市场的内在规律，要做到这点，必须交易者与市场达到天人合一的境界。

而我们平时所说的交易是对的，只是一种色相的说法，亚当是需要直达空相的本质。其实亚当，就是一种哲学。大家有兴趣可以研究。至于交易的话，有否帮助，各人情况不同了。

欢迎交流，我的邮箱：tranfund@hotmail.com

laoer00

我是看了Wilder的系列才明白江恩的:*22*: :*22*:

gshaojuan

我研究过，有一定的道理，但使用方法呆板，不好用，我觉得有用的体会说一下啊
1.做短期时，预测是要做的，但重要的是对策，市场不同程度的验证和打击你的判断倾向时，你要跟着市场走，特别是大幅度的反响验证，更是要不假思索的追随市场，改变自己的判断，也就是要说要弹性十足，这个是短线的基本功
2.在他说的镜像预测时，有一个重要的说法也叫质子运动，很有价值，就是最近最强的价格波动最有可能延续，你可以把这个当作一个坐标来观察当时的势来看趋势延续的可能，但有个启示，大阳出了，不要怕跌了轻易做空，大阴出了，别急抄底做多，这都是最可能延续下去的。当然，这个经常有例外，太普遍了，所以我说要把这个当作一个坐标来观察当时的延续，这样的矛盾会让你有很多思考，结合我提的第一点，会有更清醒的认识

BLACK_LIST

这个需要认真学习一下！

:)

xuxi

tranfund大侠翻译过亚当理论
请问在哪里能找到书的英文原版
网上流传的中文版似乎翻译的有些词不达意

chenzhiling

以中文版的亚当理论来看，纯粹是告诉你趋势的重要性，没有其他意义。
大家想想，要是真有什么秘籍，他会写出来分享吗？
股市永远是7负2平1赚，大部分输的钱都交印花税和佣金了。有钱还是好好享受生活吧！

风潇潇兮

纯粹是告诉你趋势的重要性

Andy800529

哪里有英文原版？