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行云流水话投资

发表于 2005-8-10 21:51 | 显示全部楼层
Originally posted by biobuck at 2005-8-10 10:31
IF your answer is <=$10 meaning you are willing to bet $5 for the potentail winning of $1 to $5, you are likely high risk tolerate investors.  In general,  you have no problem take a loss, you u ...


还有一种说法,善弈者不厌恶风险而厌恶losses,哪个更有道理?
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发表于 2005-8-12 12:26 | 显示全部楼层
Don't throw your "good" money into a "bad" investment (a losing stock).  Cut your loss (small) and let your profit run.  ----------
which should adapt as

Don't throw your "good" money into a "bad" investment (a price higher than  it"s value stock).
Cut your loss (in a reasonable point ) and let your profit run.
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 楼主| 发表于 2005-8-13 09:43 | 显示全部楼层

james

"bad" investment (a losing stock)=if you bought a stock at 10 and now it is at 8.  It becomes a losing stock.  The money you have there becomes "bad" money.  YOu don't want to use fresh cash (good money) to buy it even at 8.

Cut your loss (small)....
When you sell a winner, what is your average  % gain?.  Let's say, generally after 20% gain  you took the profit.  Then you should never hold a loser for -20%.  YOu should cut it sooner.  Probably @~5%.  This way even your win/lose =1/1.  You will still make money.  That is what I meant "small".

Nobody knows the exact "value" of a stock.  The value you give to a stock will be different from other people.  Hence, it is impossible to determine the "fair" value of a stock.  The equilibrium of buying pressure and selling pressure produce the "fair" value.  When that equilibrium changes, the "fair" value changes too.
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发表于 2005-8-13 11:56 | 显示全部楼层

biobuck

Nobody knows the exact "value" of a stock. ---yes.
"value" of a stock depends on your judgement ,different evaluation brings losing or winning that is why basic research is so significant.
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 楼主| 发表于 2005-8-13 12:14 | 显示全部楼层
Originally posted by james369 at 2005-8-13 11:56
Nobody knows the exact "value" of a stock. ---yes.
"value" of a stock depends on your judgement ,different evaluation brings losing or winning that is why basic research is so  ...


But I think the most important thing is not to research the company but rather to research those investors who hold and trade the company's stock.   How these people value the company is more important than the fair value of the company.  After all, if you and they valued the company the same.  Nobody will make any money.  Only when you and they valued the company differently (even not correctly), you have the opportunity to make money!  YOu sell when they want to buy or You buy when they want to sell.   Remeber 90% of investors are losing money.  YOu must know what these people are thinking to avoid being one of the 90%.

Stock trading is not about fair value of a stock.  It is about PEOPLE....the investors.  You take money away from OTHER people's pocket!!!  Everyone wants to legally "steal" other people's hard-earned money.
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 楼主| 发表于 2005-8-13 12:20 | 显示全部楼层
The true vale of a company should not change much from this morning to this afternoon or from today to tommorow,  Then why stock price changes?  Because people changes.... not because of them company's fundamentals.
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发表于 2005-8-13 16:14 | 显示全部楼层
Originally posted by biobuck at 2005-8-13 12:14


But I think the most important thing is not to research the company but rather to research those investors who hold and trade the company's stock.   How these people value the company is more i ...



Stock trading is not about fair value of a stock.  It is about PEOPLE....the investors.  You take money away from OTHER people's pocket!!!  Everyone wants to legally "steal" other people's hard-earned money.


if you do not reseach a company,how do you decide the payment for it"s shares, i.e you would not to buy a stock unless you think it is worth while as most people do in the fair .

many individul  do not want to  "steal" other people's hard-earned money legally.they want the company brings money to peple.
and yes , lots of public corporation do.
stock market is not a huge casno.
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发表于 2005-8-13 16:14 | 显示全部楼层
Originally posted by biobuck at 2005-8-13 12:14


But I think the most important thing is not to research the company but rather to research those investors who hold and trade the company's stock.   How these people value the company is more i ...



Stock trading is not about fair value of a stock.  It is about PEOPLE....the investors.  You take money away from OTHER people's pocket!!!  Everyone wants to legally "steal" other people's hard-earned money.


if you do not reseach a company,how do you decide the payment for it"s shares, i.e you would not to buy a stock unless you think it is worth while as most people do in the fair .

many individul  do not want to  "steal" other people's hard-earned money legally.they want the company brings money to peple.
and yes , lots of public corporation do.
stock market is not a huge casino.

[ Last edited by james369 on 2005-8-13 at 16:17 ]
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发表于 2005-8-13 16:30 | 显示全部楼层
Originally posted by biobuck at 2005-8-13 12:20
The true vale of a company should not change much from this morning to this afternoon or from today to tommorow,  Then why stock price changes?  Because people changes.... not because of them compa ...


yes,The true vale of a company should not change much from this morning to this afternoon or from today to tommorow.

the changes of stock price  is for speculation or some people's evaluation  changed  and not all the stock holders buy and sell their stock from this morning to this afternoon or from today to tommorow.
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 楼主| 发表于 2005-8-14 00:26 | 显示全部楼层

james

some people's evaluation  changed  and not all the stock holders buy and sell their stock from this morning to this afternoon or from today to tommorow.

What does this tell you then?  These perceived "values" CHANGES even when the "fundamental of the company has not changed at all.  => so there is no such thing as a "fair"  and fixed value for a stock.  So why spend time to search for the "fair" value?  When more peoples want a stock (higher demand), the "value" goes up.  When more supply (sellers) than demand (buyers), the value goes down.   You can't assign any "value" to those shares that have not been traded.  They could be worth ZERO is the next 5 minutes the company annouces its bankrupcy.  Do you think the "fundamentals" of the company changed during the 5 minutes?    I think this is the reason why "fundamentals" are not working in trading .  They propabably work well when you want to take over a business, a buyout etc...  Not for trading stocks though.

The current "spot" price means little to a current stock holder, the future price is.  Because the stock holder will trade at a future time at a different price.  Investors buy stocks to speculate on the future price.  YOu buy when you think  demand (buyers) will be > supply (sellers) this afternoon, tomorrow or next week (while the fundamental of this company virtually stays unchanged).  

"steal" is a strong word but the stock market is a zero sum game.  You make x amount of $ and some will lose x amount of money.  The only thing stock holder get from the compnay is through dividend if the company pays any.  Otherwise you are on you own.  YOu make money when someone takes the shares off your hands at a higher price.  

We are all speculators in the market.  The only different a stock market from a casino is that the win/loss odd varies from people to people in the stock market.  In both markets, the money lost =the money won.  Loser gave their hand-earned cash to winners and the house take a cut.  However, in a casino, the odd is the same for everyone, you are purely playing by your luck.

James, the reason for this lengthy post is that as a speculator (investor if you want to call it), we need to know who is our opponents (the enemy) before put or hard-earn cash on the line.  We need to know their strength and weakness.  In the stock market, our oppoents (enemy) are the other speculators (investors).  The underlined companies of these stocks are NOT our opponents (enemy).  They are the viehcles or the battle field.  Why do you want to analyze them instead of your enemy?  Of course study the battle field will help you battle better.  But your No. 1 enemy is the other investors!!!!

Good Luck!!!

[ Last edited by biobuck on 2005-8-14 at 00:44 ]
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发表于 2005-8-14 16:41 | 显示全部楼层

biobuck

one public company has shared out extra profits much more than the money gotten from stock market,the stock holder has gotten all the cash they invested back and can still have the stock shares.

you can not say that the stock market is a zero sum game in this case .

in what situation more peoples want a stock?   just when they think the price of it is lower enugh which can bring their profits in less risk. higher demand makes the  "value" goes up,and some speculators participate in, which makes  much easier to cash your stock shares in market. in this way speculating is good for econmy and investors.
for all of speculators stock trading is a  zero sum game ,but to  some investors it is a way  putting  their spare money to win more cash back.
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发表于 2005-8-14 17:15 | 显示全部楼层

biobuck

i think you know who is the most famous investor---Warren buffett
and his way of investing.
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行云流水话投资

发表于 2005-8-14 18:59 | 显示全部楼层
Originally posted by biobuck at 2005-8-14 00:26
What does this tell you then?  These perceived "values" CHANGES even when the "fundamental of the company has not changed at all.  => so there is no such thing as a "fair"  and fixed value for a stock.  So why spend time to search for the "fair" value?  When more peoples want a stock (higher demand), the "value" goes up.  When more supply (sellers) than demand (buyers), the value goes down.   You can't assign any "value" to those shares that have not been traded.  They could be worth ZERO is the next 5 minutes the company annouces its bankrupcy.  Do you think the "fundamentals" of the company changed during the 5 minutes?    I think this is the reason why "fundamentals" are not working in trading .  They propabably work well when you want to take over a business, a buyout etc...  Not for trading stocks though.

The current "spot" price means little to a current stock holder, the future price is.  Because the stock holder will trade at a future time at a different price.  Investors buy stocks to speculate on the future price.  YOu buy when you think  demand (buyers) will be > supply (sellers) this afternoon, tomorrow or next week (while the fundamental of this company virtually stays unchanged).  

"steal" is a strong word but the stock market is a zero sum game.  You make x amount of $ and some will lose x amount of money.  The only thing stock holder get from the compnay is through dividend if the company pays any.  Otherwise you are on you own.  YOu make money when someone takes the shares off your hands at a higher price.  

We are all speculators in the market.  The only different a stock market from a casino is that the win/loss odd varies from people to people in the stock market.  In both markets, the money lost =the money won.  Loser gave their hand-earned cash to winners and the house take a cut.  However, in a casino, the odd is the same for everyone, you are purely playing by your luck.

James, the reason for this lengthy post is that as a speculator (investor if you want to call it), we need to know who is our opponents (the enemy) before put or hard-earn cash on the line.  We need to know their strength and weakness.  In the stock market, our oppoents (enemy) are the other speculators (investors).  The underlined companies of these stocks are NOT our opponents (enemy).  They are the viehcles or the battle field.  Why do you want to analyze them instead of your enemy?  Of course study the battle field will help you battle better.  But your No. 1 enemy is the other investors!!!!

Good Luck!!!



看见你就想笑,看来我应当在心情不好的时候来跟你聊天,——今天还不错。

你太认真了,好象是清华出来的。可是你好辩,北大出来的也有可能。清华有个地方刻着四个字,“厚德载物”,北大也有个地方刻了四个字“兼收并蓄”。与其讨论这些事情,不若找个茶馆聊天,让我坐东也是可以的。
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 楼主| 发表于 2005-8-15 06:47 | 显示全部楼层
Originally posted by 大地飞鹰 at 2005-8-14 18:59

看见你就想笑,看来我应当在心情不好的时候来跟你聊天,——今天还不错。

你太认真了,好象是清华出来的。可是你好辩,北大出来的也有可能。清华有个地方刻着四个字,“厚德载物”,北大也有个地方刻了四个 ...


Neither 清华 nor 北大.  Jilin U.

好辩? I don't know about that.  Just it just happened that I like to discuss things with people share the similar interests with me.  Actually the fundamentals VS technicals discussion have been  around for so many years.  It will never end.  But when come to trading records, technicals usually produce consistant better results.  Even in WS most of those analysts are fundamentalists and that is why it is never a good idea to listen to their advice.  

聊天? any time  Eagle!  If I happens to be free.
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 楼主| 发表于 2005-8-15 06:57 | 显示全部楼层

james

Warren Beffett actually tooke over (buy) companies when he found undervalued companies and had someone run them.  Most people forget he does more than buy stocks and sell stocks.  He owns quite a a lot of utility companies and energy related companies.  He is definitely not a trader.

one public company has shared out extra profits much more than the money gotten from stock market,the stock holder has gotten all the cash they invested back and can still have the stock shares.

Yeah, but the stock will trade at lower price before dividend day.  For a stock of $20 paid a $8 dividend, the price will trade around ~20-8=12 after the divident date.
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 楼主| 发表于 2005-8-15 07:24 | 显示全部楼层

james

in what situation more peoples want a stock?

How about pure greed?  That is how the tech bubble was created.  Before the peak of the bubble do you think  stocks were fair "valued"?  They were pretty much already "over-valued" IMHO, but why they kept going up further and further?  The demand was created by greed and not driven by "values".  Actually so many fundamental analysts were yelling BUY BUY BUY.. "it is a new ECONMY" at the bubble peak.  Good technicains would have not done that because charts started to deteriated.  CSCO this quater made more profit than the bubble year but the stock is trading under 20.  Why?  do n't you think CSCO should be traded much higher than the bubble years?  It makes more profit and hence is much more valuable now.

...which makes  much easier to cash your stock shares in market

A question for you.

When you buy a stock, do fundamental analysis ever told you WHEN and at WHAT price to sell?  Never.  TA can at least make some educated guess and help traders to make a reasonalble trading plan before the trade.  This is a very serious flaw for fundamental analysis.  It can't HELP you to determine when and at what price you should exit.  It does not help you to set stops....it actually make people holding on their losers hoping the stock price will recover to the "proper" valued price.  

James, this discussion is great.  Hopefully someone will benefit from this and ask more questions outside what we were taught in classrooms, by textbooks or from so called "experts".   Not everything we were told or taught are correct.  

Later!
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行云流水话投资

发表于 2005-8-15 12:06 | 显示全部楼层
Originally posted by biobuck at 2005-8-15 06:57
Warren Beffett actually tooke over (buy) companies when he found undervalued companies and had someone run them.  Most people forget he does more than buy stocks and sell stocks.  He owns quite a a ...


我支持你的这个观点。Warren Beffett是一个金融帝国的King,世界第二保险集团的CEO。他自己说过,投资圣殿里的最大秘密是取得廉价流动资金。我打个比方,假若他的保单有3%收益,而贷款利率是5%,那么他把保险资金用于投资将有2%的边际。假若他的总资金是净资金的10倍,只要总资金收益率达到5%,他的净资金收益就可以达到20%,这个人其实是用期货的方式进行投资。我对Warren最感兴趣的一段是他取得硕士学位以后到接管Berkshire Hathaway这一段,其次是1977年左右华尔街由徘徊而直冲云宵到90年带网络股兴起。第一段是Finghter Warren演义,第二段是Knight Warren 列传。90年代以后是King Warren世家,太遥远了。

我正在想能不能倒过来,用投资的方式玩期货。Biobuck兄是技术高手,长期与A人为伍,能否透露一点对于我这个想法的观点?
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 楼主| 发表于 2005-8-16 09:16 | 显示全部楼层
Originally posted by 大地飞鹰 at 2005-8-15 12:06
我正在想能不能倒过来,用投资的方式玩期货。Biobuck兄是技术高手,长期与A人为伍,能否透露一点对于我这个想法的观点?


Of course you can.  But I won't recommend that.  Do you want to know why?  Becuase I did exactly that before.  Funny you asked, I was thinking that the other day when I read an article about FOrex.  I was very attempted to open an account to re-start my future trading life again.  Then I asked myself what was the reason I stopped future trading and only concentrated on stocks [although I still use leverage (stock options and margins)... Still very aggressive].  

My reason (or my conclusion after my future trading experience 1-2 years) was future trading is a very intense and highly sophicated (compare with stock trading) game requiring the complete devotion and dedication.   In general your enemy are mostly professionals (institutions, hedge funds...), they are very sophiscated and knowledgible.  In order to beat them you need to execute every aspects of your trading flawless (trade planning, TA, risk management, trading psychology etc..).  There is not much room for errors.  You can't learn as you go.  You have to be an every seasoned trader or you will not last very long.  Beside you also need to have a good size of starting capital or YOu will not be able to sustain any serious drawndowns.  The leverage is good when it works for you and will be very bad when it is agaist you.  YOu pretty much have to be a full time trader.   Basically you must be at the top of your game!  Still 90% traders will end up lose money and be out of the game (this includes ME).  

On the other hand, the stock market players in general are not very sohpiscated and competitive.  There are  many regular folks and grandpa/grandma playing this game.  If you are reasonablely knowledgible and have an decent system and risk management, you will make money.  You don't have to be at the top of your game on all aspect of trading.  It allows certain degree of errors.  It is very difficult to be wiped out unless you are a regular Joes/grandpa/grandma.  YOu can learn as you progress.  You don't have to be totally devoted to the game and you can be a trader at night (part time trader).  

TO give you an analog:

Future trading:  You fight for the basket ball with a group of NBA palyers.  You have to be extremely talented (like Yao Ming) to be able to get the ball.

Stock trading:  You fight for the basket ball with a group of school kids, unless you are very clumsy and fat (like me hahaha, you called me a Fatty before) and had played this game a few times before, you will get the ball very often.

So my answer to your Q is.  Stay with the stock market and prove that you can consistantly make money and build up your capital reserve then think about future trading.  

Good Luck!
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行云流水话投资

发表于 2005-8-16 10:14 | 显示全部楼层
Originally posted by biobuck at 2005-8-16 09:16


Of course you can.  But I won't recommend that.  Do you want to know why?  Becuase I did exactly that before.  Funny you asked, I was thinking that the other day when I read an article about FO ...


谢谢你的分析,看来遇到问题找你错不了(不是广告)。你连PK grandpa/grandma都想得出来、说得出来,够专业的。

以投资的方式玩期货,没问题的。WB自己就是这样干的,他最近几年长期持有美元空头,理由是布什的财长吃稀饭去了。去年赚了,今年上半年赔了。但是我们不能这样干,理由是布什需要WB一起高尔夫,他不需要我们。你看,我只是开个玩笑。

Good luck!

[ Last edited by 大地飞鹰 on 2005-8-16 at 10:15 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2005-8-16 12:04 | 显示全部楼层
..你连PK grandpa/grandma都想得出来、说得出来..

LOL, I know it sounds very hash.  But it is reality.  Truth hurts!  Nobody wants to admit it or say it and pretneds it is not there.  This is the anme of the game "Pigs get slaughtered".   I happens to be a guy who takes a no bullshit approach and who doesn't give a damn about what other people think of me.   Arrogance? perhaps, confidence? maybe!

[ Last edited by biobuck on 2005-8-16 at 12:15 ]
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