Oil Services (OIH) have a ton of high-volume options, and thus represents another great put-buying opportunity given the state of this chart:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0709-oih.jpg
The S&P 500 is falling away beautifully from its median line:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0709-sp.jpg
XAU (Gold & Silver) looks at the top of a right shoulder on a forming head & shoulders pattern:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0709-xau.jpg
The XLE (oil sector) represents great opportunity for short selling in the stocks that comprise it, as well as the XLE (or OIH) itself:
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The XLE (oil sector) represents great opportunity for short selling in the stocks that comprise it, as well as the XLE (or OIH) itself:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0709-xle.0.jpg
CX:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0709-cx.jpg
Sugar water seller HANS seems primed for a fall:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0709-hans.jpg
TEX appears to have double-topped:
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TEX appears to have double-topped:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0709-tex.jpg
TXT:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0709-txt.jpg
This upcoming week should be thrilling. Good luck!
at 7/08/2006 59 insightful comments
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Wednesday, July 05, 2006As the Air Leaks Out....
Well, I guess that puts the nail on the coffin of any Enron talk. Unless Skilling jumps off a bridge or something. Adios, Lay-man. We knew thee all too well.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0705-twit.jpg
I've got some more short (or put-buying) recommendations for those who dare. Unless they want to hop on the GOOG/HANS/NTRI train with users named after natural disasters. For the rest of us, I present these symbols and stop prices....
BNI 84.88
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0705-bni8488.jpg
DO 88.25
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0705-do8825.jpg
DVN 65.25
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0705-dvn6525.jpg
ET 23.46
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ET 23.46
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0705-et2346.jpg
LSS 58.30
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0705-lss5830.jpg
MLM 95.15
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0705-mlm9515.jpg
NXY 59.10
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NXY 59.10
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0705-nxy5910.jpg
XLE 60.15
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0705-xle6015.jpg
at 7/05/2006 37 insightful comments
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Monday, July 03, 2006Charts and Stops
Happy Independence Day. I hope no one blew their paws off with fireworks this weekend (mangled hooves are OK, however). I wanted to offer some attractive charts for put purchases with some stop prices (e.g. should the underlying stock cross above the cited price, get out at once!). Of course, regular short sales are fine too. Lower risk, but lower reward. Here we go:
APA (stop price 75.66)
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0703-apa7566.jpg
CLF (stop price 41)
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0703-clf41.jpg
DIA (stop price 112.85)
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0703-dia11285.jpg
EOG (stop price 79.24)
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EOG (stop price 79.24)
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0703-eog7924.jpg
RIG (stop price 84.05)
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0703-rig8405.jpg
SHLD (stop price 167.95)
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0703-shld16795.jpg
UNP (stop price 95.20)
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0703-unp9520.jpg
The market has not been kind to bears recently. At this point, I see one of two things is going to happen in the next couple of weeks (maybe even sooner). Either the market is going to resume its downtrend. And if it does so, it had better start soon, such as before this week is over! Or the market has found newfound strength and is going to press higher. This'll really piss your buddy Tim off. Of course, the market doesn't care.
The Dow Transports is heading toward its all-time high. A double top here would be nice. If it pushes on to another, newer high, that's not good news for the bears. The Dow Composite is likewise showing surprising strength.
Many charts I look at, including larger indices such as the S&P 500 and Dow 30, appear to be shaping up to begin their downturn once more. This would keep the all-important lower lows/lower highs intact. If the market's recent strength has been simply a countertrend rally in the midst of a bear market, that's dandy. If this strength is legitimate, however, and the bear market is a phantom, it's time to reconsider! By the end of this week, it should be more clear.
at 7/03/2006 35 insightful comments
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Thursday, June 29, 2006Opportunities Abound
I'm not worried.
See the serene look on my face? That's the look of a calm bear. I take today's huge gains on the market in stride.
Sure, I got stopped out of a lot of positions. But that's the purposes of stops. It saved me a lot of money. Losing money is OK. Losing a lot of money by not having stops, hoping things will turn around somehow, is not OK.
I'm not going to offer any specific stock suggestions, although, believe me, tons of them abound. Just a quick market overview in the face of a very ugly rise in the market.
The Dow, up well over 200 points today, made the "topping" pattern (intraday) mentioned a few days ago moot. However, it is still well positioned for a fall. It's pushed up against its former support line. I'm not sure how the weirdness of "day before the July 4 weekend" and "short July 3 trading day" will muck things up, but we have to ignore such circumstances and consider them ordinary trading days.
Now, if the Dow pushes based the zone I've put in green, it's a very different story. But we aren't there yet, and we may never be.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0628-indu.0.jpg
The S&P likewise is still in good shape for the bears. Notice how the succession of lower highs and lower lows is still very much intact, even with today's explosive rise.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0628-spx.jpg
Same deal with the S&P 100 (the $OEX). It broke below its trendline. It is clawing its way back. But it's still in a bearish situation.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0628-oex.jpg
The Dow Transportation Index is a bit of a surprise. It had a breakdown earlier, but it's managed to shake it off. I'd say this is the least bearish of the major market indexes.
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The Dow Transportation Index is a bit of a surprise. It had a breakdown earlier, but it's managed to shake it off. I'd say this is the least bearish of the major market indexes.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0628-tran.jpg
One nice thing about today's action is that it creamed the $VIX, which means that puts on the S&P just got a lot cheaper (in both intrinsic and premium terms). Notice how the $VIX has reverted to the median of its linear regression channel.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0628-vix.jpg
You might want to look in oil services for good short opportunities - or the OIH itself. To me it seems like this has shaped up as a beautiful bearish play.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0628-oih.jpg
The same analysis applies to the Gold and Silver ($XAU) index. A rapid retracement to a broken support line. Looks great to me for some puts.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0628-xau.jpg
Take heart, bears. In the summer of 2000, even though in retrospect we can see the market was already going into bear mode, lots of stocks were reaching new lifetime highs. The bear market started in March 2000, but people didn't really cave in to it until later that year. Our best hope at this point for some serious damage will come from disappointing Q2 earnings, which start reporting next month.
In the meantime, don't let the fact that the 17th interest rate hike is probably the last for a while substitute as a great reason to rush into the U.S. equity market. It's idiotic.
at 6/29/2006 42 insightful comments
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