MO 81
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0731-mo81.jpg
MON 43.86
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0731-mon4386.jpg
OIH 152
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0731-oih152.jpg
Good luck! And, remember boys and girls, if you want to see a bigger graph, just click on any of the small images. Click Back to return to this blog. See ya....
at 7/31/2006 37 insightful comments
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Friday, July 28, 2006Sheesh
I, for one, am glad to see this week is over. On the whole, it sucked for bears. Ever since June 14, the bulls have, more or less, been at the steering wheel. We've had some hopeful days now and then, but the sad fact of the matter is that we still get triple-digit push-ups like today on the most feeble of news.
I feel exactly like I did when I wrote in May. Interestingly enough, my feelings of despair at that time precisely match the peak of the market. To the day! So maybe there's a little hope, eh?
There were a few bright points this week, like the nuking of some Insurance stocks. But more and more bulls are getting heartened by recent activity, and you can smell the stink from the media about how rosy everything is. Apparently a slowing economy is great news.
I see the comments section is more active than ever. I don't even want to walk into that bar. God knows what is going on.
The Dow Jones 30 is still - but just barely - in a safe place for bears. I've pointed out five levels. Exceeding each one will make things progressively worse (and if it goes above 5, I'm going to enter the exciting world of retail shoe sales). This is an extremely dangerous juncture.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0728-indu.jpg
The note on the chart for the $OEX speaks for itself.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0728-oex.jpg
Below is an intraday (minute by minute) chart of the $SPX. It has obediently stayed under the trendline. Now, that's all well and good, but given enough time, the S&P 500 go climb to 10,000 and still be below this line. But at least this slender wall is holding up.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0728-spxintraday.jpg
Jeez, I hope next week is better than this one. I enjoyed early June a hell of a lot more than this.
at 7/28/2006 57 insightful comments
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Thursday, July 27, 2006Midnight Posting
It's approaching midnight here in Palo Alto. In less than six hours, they're going to report GDP numbers, and supposedly they will give the market a reason to go either up or down. Very few people will read this before those numbers are released, but I'm posting this new entry anyway.
Based on the charts I'm seeing, I'm predicting a down day, and I'm doing it without the benefit of those figures. So I'll either look like a jackass or a jeanyus. Either way, it'll start with "j".
The Dow Composite looks ready to get pushed back away from its resistance line. When will the bulls ever give up?
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0727-comp.jpg
The Dow Jones 30 had its second doji in a rowing. Can you say spinning tops? I also have drawn another (smaller) Fibonacci retracement, this one spanning from the May top to the ~10,650 level we keep bouncing away from. Interestingly, today marked the 50% retracement point. Coincidence? I think not!
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0727-indu.jpg
I haven't bothered putting up a NASDAQ chart in ages just because this poor index is so battered and bruised, it's hardly worth looking at. But we clearly see a steady progression of lower lows and lower highs. Which is the very definition of a (loving sigh) bear market.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0727-nasdaq.jpg
The S&P has done a great job staying underneath the medium-term resistance line, and it seems to have run out of gas. It fell today in a lovely bearish engulfing pattern.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0727-spx.jpg
A few days ago, I mentioned the Transports were probably done selling off. Boy, was I wrong. This index has sold off harder than any of the other major indices in the past few days. It is approaching major, major support right now. If it cracks the trendline and Fib retracement, wow, I don't know where it's going (except down).
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A few days ago, I mentioned the Transports were probably done selling off. Boy, was I wrong. This index has sold off harder than any of the other major indices in the past few days. It is approaching major, major support right now. If it cracks the trendline and Fib retracement, wow, I don't know where it's going (except down).
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0727-tran.jpg
Have the Dow Utilities made a double top? This is the only index with strength over the past month, but it backed off without making a new high today.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0727-util.jpg
Gold also seems to have turned 'round.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0727-xau.jpg
Well, I'm going to walk the dogs. See you in the a.m.
at 7/27/2006 76 insightful comments
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Peter'd Out
Our bull friends need to recognize that it's important not only to GET it up, but to KEEP it up. Delighted to see this fizzle away today. That bodes well.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0727-peteredout.jpg
at 7/27/2006 17 insightful comments
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Thursday, July 27, 2006Insurance Fibs
No, this isn't a post on insurance fraud. Just wanted to share a couple of stocks on which I own puts that got clobbered today. Thank you, Mr. Fibonacci!
Aetna:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0727-aet.jpg
Cigna:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0727-ci.jpg
Oh, I see the bullish 70 point gain today has been destroyed and we're now showing a loss on all major indices. Zzzzzzzzzziiiiiiiiiip. Suck on it, fellas.
at 7/27/2006 9 insightful comments
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Wednesday, July 26, 2006Some Junctions More Crucial than Others!
I want to start by offering the stock market this tug-of-war finally ends.
A lot of people have been asking about sentiment, since apparently there's a lot of bearishness out there, and it's widely considered a contrary indicator. I was intrigued by this, but after examining the graph below, I've concluded that it's a fairly meaningless exercise. Sentiment rockets up and down to the point that it's just noise. The creator of this graph pointed out a few times that bearish sentiment correlated with a market bottom. Well, yeah, but I can just as easily point out three times that bearish sentiment correlated with a top. Because it's meaningless! I've circled (in green) one such example.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0726-sentiment.jpg
Dow 11,257 is what we want to not cross, people. I was nervously watching the Dow today as it ratcheted up another 50 points. But it couldn't keep it up, and it closed down by a point. What's remarkable to me is the doji pattern that formed. How's this for a tug-of-war, folks? I can't remember the last time I saw such an incredible doji. It has indecision written all over it. No one has control of this market! And it's getting tiresome.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0726-dojidow.jpg
Since last Tuesday, the S&P has been pushing ahead with a series of higher highs and higher lows. Not good for us bears. But it has stayed beneath its trendline, and I see strength starting to flag. Make no mistake, though. We have got to close out this week with some meaningful weakness! Recent market activity is far too heartening to our bull friends!
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0726-spx.jpg
On a daily basis, you can see the S&P is also in a doji pattern (although not to the freakish degree that the Dow was) and we are still safely below the trendline. But we are very close to the danger zone, folks. One more good, strong day, and things are going to suck.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0726-spxclose.jpg
at 7/26/2006 46 insightful comments
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Tuesday, July 25, 2006Post # Two Hundred Fifty!
This is my 250th post to this blog (tweet! honk honk! tooooot!) I wish the market gave me more of a reason to celebrate this momentous occasion. But bulls love to buy, irrespective of reality, so there we have it.
NTRI obviously got completely hammered today, losing nearly a fifth of its value. I noticed that NTRI bulls were citing that it was "only" because the CEO had left. As I mentioned in the comments.....can you imagine if the stock were up 20% because of some great news, and NTRI bears cited that news as meaningless? They'd get zinged. So, likewise - - NTRI Bulls, you were dead wrong, and the stock is in sorry shape now.
The comments section is completely abuzz, which I think is terrific. Lots of little battles being waged there, which I think is very much like the market these days. It's just a mud pit of fighting. Someone comment that the market was bullish because "...the GDP rises with time and the markets rise with it." OK, so does that mean the market always goes up? With that logic, apparently so.
Today the market was neither up nor down but simply annoying until about the final hour of the day, when it inexplicably shot up. It closed up just a little over 50 on the Dow. This is a very dangerous juncture for us, fellow bears. The $INDU is mushed right up against an important resistance line, and it's actually risen a skosh more than I would like to see. I'm worried. It sure as hell better head south tomorrow. Crossing above 11,257 would indicate something is very, very, very wrong.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0725-indu.jpg
The S&P 500 ($SPX) is likewise mashed right up against an important trendline. 1,280.38 is the upper limit of what I'd tolerate right now.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0725-spx.jpg
Now on with some specific short picks. Here's Cigna (CI):
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0725-ci.jpg
CP:
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CP:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0725-cp.jpg
ESRX is one I haven't talked about in a while. This is sweet looking:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0725-esrx.jpg
GS is another beauty:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0725-gs.jpg
I like Dick Cheney's old company HAL:
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I like Dick Cheney's old company HAL:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0725-hal.jpg
Health Net (HNT) is another shortie:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0725-hnt.jpg
Well congratulations to us all for putting up with 250 of my posts. Here's to the next 250! (God help us....)
at 7/25/2006 49 insightful comments
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Monday, July 24, 2006The Voice of Reason
Another nearly 200 point rise in the Dow today. The main reason being given was a company was being bought. The ticker symbol should be BFD, but it's HCA. Honestly, what on earth does this change about the market's prospects? Pfft.
In any case, I was going to title today's entry "This is Not Good" or something like that, but once again, having looked at my charts, I'm not worried. Sorry, I'm just not. Chart after charts just screams "sucker rally" to me, and when I look at the long-term (we're talking decades, people) chart of the S&P 500 or the Dow, it's got bear written all over it.
Oh, before we go any farther, a tip of the paw to everyone's favorite perma-bull, hurricane5. One of his most fervant recommendations (the top one, I think, with a target price of a million bucks a share or something) is NTRI. It's getting slammed in after-hours trading.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0724-ntricane.jpg
Back to reality. The Dow Jones 30 has just two numbers that count right now. This is simple: if it breaks below 10,660, the bears are going to own the market. If it breaks above 11,150, that's going to cause some medium-term damage to our evil plans for world domination. I think the buying mania is just about tapped out. But I've been wrong before!
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0724-indu.jpg
Looking at the intraday S&P 500, it didn't get above last Wednesday's high, and even if it does, there's still a bit of play before this gets worrisome.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0724-spxintraday.jpg
The daily chart of the S&P is the same tired channel you've seen for a while. We're still in a nice succession of lower highs and lower lows since the May 10th peak. Let's keep it that way, shall we?
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0724-spxchannel.jpg
This final graph is really what I was talking about earlier - - click on it to see a bigger image, stare at it for a while, and try to convince yourself this is a graph that's going to shoot higher. Just try. You can't, because it's not going to do so. History is telling us it's time to head lower. A lot lower. Just watch.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0724-spxverylongterm.jpg
at 7/24/2006 71 insightful comments
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