看图学习

如临深渊

你的指标组合不错啊,可是战略指标多了点,战术指标没看见(也就是精确定位指标).难道你仅用布林线定位?你是做中长线的吗?不像啊?

哈哈哈.....

biobuck

Originally posted by 如临深渊 at 2005-7-14 05:33
你的指标组合不错啊,可是战略指标多了点,战术指标没看见(也就是精确定位指标).难道你仅用布林线定位?你是做中长线的吗?不像啊?

哈哈哈.....

hahah Smart kid :)

That is my public template!!!  The real stuff is hidden!!!  Trade secret!

I trade inter-medium term.  Generally >3~6 month!!  SOme even longer.. big trend!

YOu won't go broke taking profits, but you will never get rich either!!

如临深渊

Originally posted by biobuck at 2005-7-14 05:43


hahah Smart kid :)

That is my public template!!!  The real stuff is hidden!!!  Trade secret!

I trade inter-medium term.  Generally >3~6 month!!  SOme even longer.. big trend!

YOu wo ...

我做短线的,一般不会超过一个月.你那图形在高位碎步盘整,我是不会参与的.我只做有长阳出现的,和上攻后小幅回挡有支撑的股.决不参与盘整.
趋势有个缺点就是滞后性.这个要有拐点来补充.
趋势是正,拐点是奇!奇正相合,方能不竭若江河,无穷如天地.
如只有趋势没有拐点还是可能要大亏的.
哈哈哈哈哈.....

如临深渊

我也贴个图,请biobuck兄看看.

如临深渊

再看看此图后面的走势.也许趋势和拐点的关系就在里面.
哈哈哈哈哈......

[ Last edited by 如临深渊 on 2005-7-14 at 21:36 ]

如临深渊

Originally posted by 桃曲坡 at 2005-7-14 22:48

看不懂佛主的意思，能解释的更清楚些吗？:P

哈哈哈....

佛曰:说不清,理还乱.

哈哈哈....

biobuck

Originally posted by 桃曲坡 at 2005-7-14 22:46
楼主又回来了，哈
问两个问题
1.你怎么理解计划与调控？
2.在你的风险控制体系中是否包括期指交易？

我理解的调控就是小布什一脚把格老踢出办公室，然后说：“俺自己来”，嘿嘿

格老is retiring in a few months!!  We will have a new guy.  I am not worry about the new guy since Fed chairman has another ~10 fed local governors.  Any fed decision will be made by voting.  So the chairman can do something if others do not agree.  So a mistake by the chairman alone can't do much damage to the economy unless 4 or 5 localFed governors also made the same mistake.

在你的风险控制体系中是否包括期指交易？
The answer is no.  I don't hedge.  The best defense is offense!!!  I am actually very aggresive when I see a good opportunaty. I will pile it on(trade a bigger lot) and start to buy on margins.  Sometimes. I even use stock options to gain more leverage when I see a good one.   The big winner will not come very often, when it comes you 'd better to milk the fat cow as much as you can.   Pyramiding + Options.

Good Luck!

biobuck

Originally posted by 如临深渊 at 2005-7-14 21:08
你那图形在高位碎步盘整,我是不会参与的

I only involved in this stock at the beginning from ~5-6 to 9.  I got stopped out and missed the big surge from 9 to 26.  高位碎步盘整 is not bearish though.  That is why I don't trade drug stocks.  One piece of bad news the whole company can be in trouble.

Thx for posting those charts.

Later!

大地飞鹰

Originally posted by biobuck at 2005-7-14 02:03

海啸 has nothing to do with this. :)
东南亚 problem was real issues that had been ignored for many years.  Just like Janpan.. Japanese banks had serious bad loan problems since late 80s and Jap  ...

“SAVE”的讨论可以结束了。这个人类已经争论了至少300年的问题，我不在乎你说什么，也不在乎你解释什么，不在乎你使用哪个学派的观点解释，除非你的解释有了明显的超越，那样我很乐意与阁下分享诺贝尔奖金。不要告诉我你只读一个学派的《经济学原理》，也不要告诉我只有那个学派是对的。这种争论，我只在乎你怎样处理具体的案例，你是在完全的引经据典，还是在阐述自己的观点。结果我提出了三个案例（29年华儿街大崩溃和罗斯福新政，东南亚金融危机，艾伦的利率调控政策和美国的新经济繁荣），而你没有拿出任何新的东西来，你输了。OK？

“市场”的问题，我不在乎你是否看空，是380点还是80点。市场始终是平衡的，每成交一笔记录，则至少有一个看多而且做多的人，还有一个看空而且做空的人。你看到了380点的同时，也有人看到了一万点。正如你的图不特别一样，380点也不特别，我没兴趣，也不关心380点是怎么来的。我感兴趣的是，你为什么不远万里前来告诉我们你看空——这就特别了。OK，明白我的意思了么？

您的技术非常的好，一级棒。可以看得出，这儿有很多朋友对此很感兴趣，他们很希望跟你交流交流——也就是跟你学一点，我对你的大度感到骄傲。

天空战记

:D:D:D

biobuck

If any of my previous posts offended you.  I am sorry, I did not mean it.

Okay let's discuss.  

Originally posted by 大地飞鹰 at 2005-7-17 21:26
除非你的解释有了明显的超越，那样我很乐意与阁下分享诺贝尔奖金。不要告诉我你只读一个学派的《经济学原理》...你是在完全的引经据典，还是在阐述自己的观点。结果我提出了三个案例（29年华儿街大崩溃和罗斯福新政，东南亚金融危机，艾伦的利率调控政策和美国的新经济繁荣），而你没有拿出任何新的东西来，你输了。OK？

Okay! YOu win and I lost! By the way, I have no ambitions for any 奖金 not to mention 诺贝尔奖金.  I have never read anything even close to 《经济学原理》.  Acutally I know basically ZERO about 经济学.  I guess that I can say that I know a great deal about cloning, molecular biology and biochemistry since I do have a Ph.D in biochemistry.  I am an experimental scientist and I observe and draw my own conclusions. Investment is my hobby not my profession.  Of course I don't mind profits either.

我感兴趣的是，你为什么不远万里前来告诉我们你看空

I have explained it in our message exchanges.  I am here to OBSERVE and  to LEARN what human behaviors, emotions and pychological reactions to a ongoing secular bear market.  I am hoping that I can learn from this market and apply my learnings to my future investment.  I believe I am in an unique postiont to do this since I have ZERO invested in this market.  I am unbiased and without any emotions attached to this market.  Financially I benefit ZERO for being here and for offerring my views.

Along the way, I also offered my opinions about the market and hoping someone can benefit from it,  Because I see so many people here making the costly mistakes that I had made many years ago and paid dearly for them.     I know I would have made fewer mistakes and saved a lot of my capital If I had have this type of advice before.  That is another reason I post here.  I have also seen some so called experts (gurus) here mislead the public for their own benefits.  I wanted to warn those peole who are new to the market about the danger of trusting "experts" and believing the "media"(TV, newspaper etc..).  Do your own research and trust no one!  I myslef have also learnt from some of people here through verious discussions and exchange.  It is a rewarding experience.  

Based on my TA analysis, my experience and the sentiment I observed here, I felt the market has more downside potential than upside.  There are still a lot of "HOPE" around that even I can sense on this board.  When there is still "HOPE", it is not the bottom.  WHen there is no "HOPE" but "FEAR", the bottom is near.  I could be proven wrong for 740 or 380 in the future but I don't care.  Pride and ego have no places in the financial market.

GOOD LUCK!

Biobuck

[ Last edited by biobuck on 2005-7-18 at 01:32 ]

大地飞鹰

Originally posted by biobuck at 2005-7-18 01:28
If any of my previous posts offended you.  I am sorry, I did not mean it.

Okay let's discuss.  

Okay! YOu win and I lost! By the way, I have no ambitions for any 奖金 not to mention 诺贝尔奖金 ...

祝贺您，Biobuck博士！分子生物学洋博人，好羡慕啊！再次感谢您的白求恩精神，不远万里来到了中国告诉我们这些受苦受难的“骨”民，熊途漫长。你的精神光芒万丈。

作为一个friend，我接受你的这顶帽子——我更希望你哪天能送我一顶博士帽子，我有必要就一些基本问题做一个基本说明。

首先，我们谈论的saves跟你们的saves不一样。A股市场的股权分置是由历史原因造成的，现在解决这个问题，是市场要求解决这个问题么？好象不是。那么，是谁呢？不管是谁，“它”应当有义务确保在解决问题的过程中就相关的市场异常担负责任，这是基本的游戏规则。OK？

其次，我支持你的观点，调整将是漫长的，真正的下跌将在06、07年开始，大量法人股流通以后将对市场资金造成沉重的抛售压力，市场下跌深不见底。但是，这不等于我们应当放弃saves，放弃对责任的诉求。这是两个问题。也不等于说，所有的个股都将完蛋。

再次，欢迎您归来，欢迎您投资A股，真正的投资，而不是仅仅看看。你在世界上再找不到另外一个地方可以如此低廉地买进一个快速发展国家的优质资产，你不可能找到的，我对Nasdaq并非一无所知。解决股权分置实际上将A股和法人股市场合一了，A股不仅仅含权！我们曾经有过一个设想，建立单独的法人股市场，在一片反对声中我是坚决赞同的。赞同无效，可惜啊。现在，那些反对的人已经看见了反对的后果了，法人股以推迟一两年流通的代价获得与A股平等的地位。希望你在盯着指数的时候，关心一下优质资产们，投机力量创造了投资机会，这样资产大流通大分配的机会，十年难得一见。相反，在热钱滚滚的大牛市里，才值得去投机，比如石油期货和S&P指数。

祝您发财，天天发大财！

[ Last edited by 大地飞鹰 on 2005-7-18 at 16:29 ]

biobuck

Originally posted by 大地飞鹰 at 2005-7-18 16:14
首先，我们谈论的saves跟你们的saves不一样。A股市场的股权分置是由历史原因造成的，...“它”应当有义务确保在解决问题的过程中就相关的市场异常担负责任，....
...大量法人股流通以后将对市场资金造成沉重的抛售压力，市场下跌深不见底。但是，这不等于我们应当放弃saves，放弃对责任的诉求。这是两个问题。也不等于说，所有的个股都将完蛋。

You are right, I do believe now that we were talking different "SAVE"s.  I don't have enough knowledge of A股 and this 股权分置 thing to make comments.  Whatever the cause and the solution for this problem, the stock market apparently does not LIKE it!

...你在世界上再找不到另外一个地方可以如此低廉地买进一个快速发展国家的优质资产，你不可能找到的...希望你在盯着指数的时候，关心一下优质资产们，投机力量创造了投资机会，这样资产大流通大分配的机会，十年难得一见。相反，在热钱滚滚的大牛市里，才值得去投机，比如石油期货和S&P指数。

I was thinking about this actually the other day and trying ot figure out how to get involved in this market once it bottomed.  I read somwehere that American exchange is planning to create an ETF for shanghai exchange.  Perhaps that will be my trading vehiecle of the chinese market.  Big money is made in a big trend (大牛市) not in daily fluctuation.

Good Luck!

Biobuck

大地飞鹰

Originally posted by biobuck at 2005-7-19 05:02

I read somwehere that American exchange is planning to create an ETF for shanghai exchange.  Perhaps that will be my trading vehiecle of the chinese market.  Big money is made in a big trend (大牛市) not in daily fluctuation.

American exchange的决定是对的，欢迎成立ETF for shanghai exchange。我继续介绍一些基本情况。

你们有三个exchange，我们有两个，一个在上海，一个在深圳，深圳那个已经停止发行大型公司的股票。上海是亚洲的金融中心之一，深圳将来有可能成为我们的Nasdaq。

上海exchange自己发布的指数当中，有4个重要的指数可以代表整个市场，它们是：

No.1 沪深300指数，从上海exchange和深圳exchange上选出300只最有代表性的股票，按成份指数的方式计算，这是我们的S&P500，我们即将发行关于这个指数的ETF。

No.2 上证180指数，从上海exchange选出180只最有代表性的股票，按成份指数的方式计算，代表上海市场。

No.3 上证50指数，从上海exchange选出50只最有代表性的股票，按成份指数的方式计算，这是我们的D&J30“工业”指数，已经发布了ETF。

No.4 上证综合指数，按总股本加权计算，样本包括上海exchange的所有证券（包括B股），是当前最有民间影响力的指数。由于它的古怪的计算方式（又是历史原因造成的！）在国际上没有多少人认可，国内象我这样的guy也不愿意继续使用它，现在上海exchange在自己发布的四大指数当中把它排在第4位，也可以说是最不重要的市场指数。

American exchange很保守的，上证综合指数不具备ETF标的条件，50指数和300指数资历太浅，我估计可能上证180指数（SH.000010），或者是D&J编制的D&J Chinese。

[ Last edited by 大地飞鹰 on 2005-7-19 at 10:48 ]

biobuck

Originally posted by 大地飞鹰 at 2005-7-19 10:42

No.2 上证180指数，从上海exchange选出180只最有代表性的股票，按成份指数的方式计算，代表上海市场。 ...

Thx for the info!

Is this the one  broken 1000 a few weeks ago and currently hovered around 1000?
DO you know when AMEX will issue ETF for 上证指数?  Has it been finalized or  is it still in planning stage?

L8r!

Biobuck

大地飞鹰

Originally posted by biobuck at 2005-7-19 11:38


Thx for the info!

Is this the one  broken 1000 a few weeks ago and currently hovered around 1000?
DO you know when AMEX will issue ETF for 上证指数?  Has it been finalized or  is it still i ...

1 最近跌破1000点、目前又恢复到1000以上的是No.4，上海证券交易所综合指数，简称上证指数。180指数目前在2000点附近，华安即将发行关于这个指数的ETF。

2 我不知道AMEX将如何发行“ETF for 上证指数”，以我对你们那边的报道（华盛顿邮报，AOL，YAHOO）的理解，上海交易所自己发布的四大市场指数当中的任何一个都是“上证指数”。

祝你发财！

大地飞鹰

上证180指数周线图

biobuck

Originally posted by 大地飞鹰 at 2005-7-19 13:34


1 最近跌破1000点、目前又恢复到1000以上的是No.4，上海证券交易所综合指数，简称上证指数。180指数目前在2000点附近，华安即将发行关于这个指数的ETF。

2 我不知道AMEX将如何发行“ETF for 上证指数”，以 ...

Thx!  I will look into all 4 indices when I have time.

Good Luck!

chxbin86

biobuck

Hehehe, Thx for this dollar printing machine.  

Good Luck friend!