看图学习

biobuck

看图学习

来自：MACD论坛(bbs.macd.cn) 作者：biobuck 浏览：5445 回复：98

你对此股有何高见？

biobuck

Originally posted by biobuck at 2005-3-2 14:00
你对此股有何高见？

How about it now?

交易

这是什么股票？美股？
看那些线发晕。

biobuck

1. The market can't be predicted!  
Technical analysis will not tell you what the market will be tomorrow.  It can only tell you at what price the market is likely to meet resistance or support.  Nothing more!
2. Don't gamble!
3. Stop Loss can't protect you 100%.
4. Money management is important (diversify)!

Good Luck!

[ Last edited by biobuck on 2005-3-2 at 14:22 ]

biobuck

"Lost 360K and only had...
by: williamgrenner         02/28/05 06:41 pm
Msg: 545480 of 550786

250K in equity. I know you will all say I was an idiot and I feel like one but I have been in and out of this stock for years and really felt I could appreciate the risk. I loaded up 20K share on margin only after the two approvals, the SEC resolution, and the Barron's endorsement of a double. Merrill forced me to liquidate today and I owe them 112K. This has almost killed me emotionally, and while it is only money, I clearly lost more than I could afford or have ever imagined. Five years of trading profit gone in minutes this morning. I never should have margined; I should have diversified, and I should have my head examined for not seeing the signs that Elan refused to respond to all of the recent good news. There was something lurking and to see that this morning was more than devestating. I have no capital to re-build. Christ this hurts. "

http://finance.messages.yahoo.co ... 6797&mid=545480

biobuck

Originally posted by 交易 at 2005-3-2 14:07
这是什么股票？美股？
看那些线发晕。

Yes! 美股

biobuck

Originally posted by 桃曲坡 at 2005-3-2 14:23
能先来个名词解释吗

Sure!  解释什么?  I will try.

zzp_one

这不会是新浪的股票吧？

biobuck

Originally posted by zzp_one at 2005-3-2 14:31
这不会是新浪的股票吧？

Not 新浪

biobuck

The Accumulation/Distribution Line was developed by Marc Chaikin to assess the cumulative flow of money into and out of a security. In order to fully appreciate the methodology behind the Accumulation/Distribution Line, it may be helpful to examine one of the earliest volume indicators and see how it compares.

In 1963, Joe Granville developed On Balance Volume (OBV), which was one of the earliest and most popular indicators to measure positive and negative volume flow. OBV is a relatively simple indicator that adds the corresponding period's volume when the close is up and subtracts it when the close is down. A cumulative total of the positive and negative volume flow (additions and subtractions) forms the OBV line. This line can then be compared with the price chart of the underlying security to look for divergences or confirmation.

In developing the Accumulation/Distribution Line, Chaikin took a different approach. OBV uses the change in closing price from one period to the next to value the volume as positive or negative. Even if a stock opened on the low and closed on the high, the period's OBV value would be negative as long as the close was lower than the previous period's close. Chaikin chose to ignore the change from one period to the next and instead focused on the price action for a given period (day, week, month). He derived a formula to calculate a value based on the location of the close, relative to the range for the period. We will call this value the "Close Location Value" or CLV. The CLV ranges from plus one to minus one with the center point at zero. There are basically five combinations:

CLV= [(C-L)-(H-C)]/(H-L);

   1. If the stock closes on the high, the absolute top of the range, then the value would be plus one.
   2. If the stock closes above the midpoint of the high-low range, but below the high, then the value would be between zero and one.
   3. If the stock closes exactly halfway between the high and the low, then the value would be zero.
   4. If the stock closes below the midpoint of the high-low range, but above the low, then the value would be negative.
   5. If the stock closes on the low, the absolute bottom of the range, then the value would be minus one.

The CLV is then multiplied by the corresponding period's volume and the cumulative total forms the Accumulation/Distribution Line.

A/D= Cum(CLV*Volume);


A bullish signal is given when the Accumulation/Distribution Line forms a positive divergence. Be wary of weak positive divergences that fail to make higher reaction highs or those that are relatively young. The main issue is to identify the general trend of the Accumulation/Distribution Line. A two-week positive divergence may be a bit suspect. However, a multi-month positive divergence deserves serious attention.

Another means of using the Accumulation/Distribution Line is to confirm the strength or sustainability behind an advance. In a healthy advance, the Accumulation/Distribution Line should keep up or at the very least move in an uptrend. If the stock is moving up at a rapid clip, but the Accumulation/Distribution Line has trouble making higher highs or trades sideways, it should serve as an indication that buying pressure is relatively weak.

The same principles that apply to positive divergences apply to negative divergences. The key issue is to identify the main trend in the Accumulation/Distribution Line and compare it to the underlying security. Young negative divergences, or those that are relatively flat, should be looked upon with a healthy dose of skepticism.

[ Last edited by biobuck on 2005-3-3 at 10:02 ]

biobuck

The Percentage Price Oscillator is found by subtracting the longer moving average from the shorter moving average and then dividing the result by the longer moving average. For example:
{(10-period EMA minus 30-period EMA) divided by the 30-period EMA}

This formula displays the difference between the two moving averages as a percentage of the longer moving average.

All centerline crossovers, which represent the shorter moving average crossing above or below the longer moving average, occur at the same time.

With the Percentage Price Oscillator, it is possible to compare Price Oscillator levels from one stock to the next.

The Percentage Price Oscillator is a better representation of the two moving averages relative to each other. The difference between the two moving averages is shown in relation to the shorter moving average. This allows for comparisons across time periods, regardless of the price of the stock.

Because the Price Oscillator and MACD are so similar, the concept of the MACD-Histogram has been applied to the PPO. The PPO-Histogram shows the difference between the PPO and the 9-day EMA of the PPO. The plot is presented as a histogram so that centerline crossovers and divergences are easily identifiable. The same principles that apply to the MACD-Histogram are also applicable to the PPO-Histogram.

A centerline crossover for the PPO-Histogram is the same as a moving average crossover for the PPO. If the value of the PPO is larger than the value of its 9-day EMA, then the value on the PPO-Histogram will be positive. Conversely, if the value of the PPO is less than its 9-day EMA, then the value of the PPO-Histogram will be negative.

Further increases or decreases in the gap between the PPO and its 9-day EMA will be reflected in the PPO-Histogram. Sharp increases in the PPO-Histogram indicate that the PPO is rising faster than its 9-day EMA -- bullish momentum is strengthening. Sharp declines in the PPO-Histogram indicate that the PPO is falling faster than its moving average -- bearish momentum is increasing.

[ Last edited by biobuck on 2005-3-3 at 10:22 ]

biobuck

Developed by Marc Chaikin, the Chaikin Money Flow oscillator is calculated from the daily readings of the Accumulation/Distribution Line. The basic premise behind the Accumulation Distribution Line is that the degree of buying or selling pressure can be determined by the location of the close relative to the high and low for the corresponding period (Closing Location Value). There is buying pressure when a stock closes in the upper half of a period's range and there is selling pressure when a stock closes in the lower half of the period's trading range. The Closing Location Value multiplied by volume forms the Accumulation/Distribution Value for each period.

The formula for Chaikin Money Flow is the cumulative total of the Accumulation/Distribution Values for N (N=14 in the chart) periods divided by the cumulative total of volume for N periods.

Generally speaking, Chaikin Money Flow is considered bullish when it is positive and bearish when it is negative. The next item to assess is the length of time Chaikin Money Flow has remained positive or negative. Even though divergences are not an intricate part of the strategy behind Chaikin Money Flow, the absolute level and general direction of the oscillator can be important.

The Chaikin Money Flow oscillator generates bullish signals by indicating that a security is under accumulation. There are three items that determine if a security is under accumulation and the strength of the accumulation.

   1. The first and most obvious signal to look for: is Chaikin Money Flow greater than zero? It is an indication of buying pressure and accumulation when the indicator is positive
   2. The second item: determine how long the oscillator has been able to remain above zero. The longer the oscillator remains above zero, the more evidence there is that the security is under sustained accumulation. Extended periods of accumulation or buying pressure are bullish and indicate that sentiment towards the security remains positive.
   3. The third indication: the actual level of the oscillator. Not only should the oscillator remain above zero, but it should also be able to increase and attain a certain level. The more positive the reading is, the more evidence of buying pressure and accumulation. There is such a thing as weak buying! This is usually a judgment call, based on prior levels for the oscillator.

The Chaikin Money Flow oscillator generates bearish signals by indicating that a security is experiencing selling pressure, or is perhaps under distribution. As with the bullish signals, there are three items used to determine whether or not a security is experiencing selling pressure and the degree of selling pressure.

   1. The first and most obvious bearish signal is when Chaikin Money Flow is less than zero. A negative reading indicates that the security in question is under selling pressure or experiencing distribution.
   2. The second potentially bearish signal is the length of time that Chaikin Money Flow has remained negative. The longer the oscillator remains negative, the greater the evidence of sustained selling pressure or distribution. Extended periods below zero indicate that sentiment towards the underlying security is bearish and there is likely to be downward pressure on the price as well. The length of time can be determined by measuring the percentage of time that the indicator remains below zero. If Chaikin Money Flow is negative to 3 out of 4 weeks, then it would be experiencing selling pressure 75% of the time.
   3. The third potentially bearish signal is the degree of selling pressure or distribution. This can be determined by the oscillator's absolute level. Readings on either side of the zero line or within 10 percent of both sides (plus or minus .10) are usually not considered strong enough to warrant a bullish or bearish signal. Once the indicator moves below -.10, the degree selling pressure begins to warrant a bearish signal. (A move above .10 would be significant enough to warrant a bullish signal). Any further movement would increase the degree of selling pressure and the bearish or bullish inclination. Marc Chaikin considers a reading below -25 percent (-.25) to be indicative of strong selling pressure. Conversely, a reading above .25 is considered to be indicative of strong buying pressure. These levels are general guidelines and establishing important levels will depend on the characteristics of the individual security and past readings for Chaikin Money Flow.

biobuck

Developed by George C. Lane in the late 1950s, the Stochastic Oscillator is a momentum indicator that shows the location of the current close relative to the high/low range over a set number of periods. Closing levels that are consistently near the top of the range indicate accumulation (buying pressure) and those near the bottom of the range indicate distribution (selling pressure).

%K=100*[recent close-Lowest low (n)]/[highest high(n)-Lowest Low(n)]
%D=3
n= number of periods

I use n=39 without %D(set as 1) as an trend following indicator.  Crossover  above centerline (0 line) indicating that a bullish trend is uder way and crossover below 0 line indicating that a bearish trend is developing.

biobuck

Originally posted by 桃曲坡 at 2005-3-3 12:08

那就这只股来说,ppo and macd 从形态上是类似的了?

Yes! They are similar in general with subtle differences.

I personally like PPO better because PPO can be used to compare 2 stocks and the distance from PPO line to zero line have important meanings (unlike MACD).

biobuck

Originally posted by 桃曲坡 at 2005-3-3 12:53
公司出事了?

It is a Irish bio-tech and pharmaceutical company.  It has a drug on the market and 2 patients were recently reported having serious side-effects.  The company withdraw the drug from the market and the stock tumbled 70% in 1 day!

Good Luck in your trading!

biobuck

Originally posted by 桃曲坡 at 2005-3-4 07:51
这公司是在哪里上市的?

USA.  It closed at 6.55 today.  ;-)

biobuck

Originally posted by 桃曲坡 at 2005-3-4 10:23
nasdaq?

NYSE

ELN

前线

MR.BIOBUCK:
I THINK YOU USE TOO MANY IDICATOR.
DON'T YOU THINK IT IS AGAINST THE PRINCIPLE OF SIMPLITY?

xiwang

楼主能否贴张周线或者月线的K线图(K线+成交量即可)

lockgrow

学习，老大帮忙看看 ALTI和IOTN的图？偶拿了一点点，还有老兄如何看SVA的图表？