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Technical analysis From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Technical analysis is a security analysis discipline for forecasting the future direction of prices through the study of past market data, primarily price and volume.[1]In its purest form, technical analysis considers only the actual priceand volume behavior of the market or instrument. Technical analysts mayemploy models and trading rules based on price and volumetransformations, such as the relative strength index, moving averages, regressions, inter-market and intra-market price correlations, cycles or, classically, through recognition of chart patterns.
Technical analysis stands in distinction to fundamental analysis.Technical analysis "ignores" the actual nature of the company, market,currency or commodity and is based solely on "the charts," that is tosay price and volume information, whereas fundamental analysis doeslook at the actual facts of the company, market, currency or commodity.For example, any large brokerage, trading group, or financialinstitution will typically have both a technical analysis andfundamental analysis team.
Technical analysis is widely used among traders and financialprofessionals, and is very often used by active day traders, marketmakers, and pit traders. In the 1960s and 1970s it was widely dismissedby academics. In a recent review, Irwin and Park[2]reported that 56 of 95 modern studies found it produces positiveresults, but noted that many of the positive results were rendereddubious by issues such as data snooping so that the evidence in support of technical analysis was inconclusive; it is still considered by many academics to be pseudoscience.[3] Academics such as Eugene Fama say the evidence for technical analysis is sparse and is inconsistent with the weak form of the efficient market hypothesis.[4][5] Users hold that even if technical analysis cannot predict the future, it helps to identify trading opportunities.[6]
In the foreign exchange markets, its use may be more widespread than fundamental analysis.[7][8]While some isolated studies have indicated that technical trading rulesmight lead to consistent returns in the period prior to 1987,[9][10][11][12] most academic work has focused on the nature of the anomalous position of the foreign exchange market.[13] It is speculated that this anomaly is due to central bank intervention.[14]Recent research suggests that combining various trading signals into aCombined Signal Approach may be able to increase profitability andreduce dependence on any single rule.[15].
[ 本帖最后由 ranchgirl 于 2009-8-12 08:33 编辑 ] |
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发表于 2009-8-12 06:33
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