教授炒股（2012年5月）

44774444

预祝节日快

sahara73710

羡慕嫉妒恨 哈

看来偶们只能等老A崩了才有机会了...
#*d1*#

44774444

有空说说香溢融通的操作过程,以让有个学习的模式,

jnzw2009

原帖由 vIL6 于 2012-5-25 11:13 发表


A股质量好的公司股价现在都不便宜，谈价值投资是愚蠢的。等以后有崩盘机会，股价低了再说。

家里在做的主要还是以主题投资为主，无法着眼于长远。前段时间做了香溢融通，现在暂时还找不到方向。

教授如此说来，可见A股投资非常困难。
没办法了，只能非常投机一下。近段时间金牛做了一点000522白云山，是否属于主题投资（投机）的范畴，请教授也指导一下。

[ 本帖最后由 jnzw2009 于 2012-5-25 19:25 编辑 ]

vIL6

原帖由 jnzw2009 于 2012-5-25 19:24 发表

教授如此说来，可见A股投资非常困难。
没办法了，只能非常投机一下。近段时间金牛做了一点000522白云山，是否属于主题投资（投机）的范畴，请教授也指导一下。

关键要看是如何发现这只股票，什么时候介入的。

jnzw2009

原帖由 vIL6 于 2012-5-25 19:42 发表


关键要看是如何发现这只股票，什么时候介入的。

关注白云山已经有一年多，主要是有个整体上市的题材，而且王老吉商标案弄得沸沸扬扬。
3月底的放量涨停，之后的回调就在4月底前慢慢介入了。当然，金牛主要是从技术分析的角度才介入的，但已经跟踪一年有余。

pubmed

原帖由 vIL6 于 2012-5-24 18:33 发表

用这两个指标判断：

1. 手上现金加短期投资（短期债券）之和减去总债务，就是手上有多少净现金。

2. 自由现金流加上资产负债表中的现金除以每年需支付的利息，称为现金流缓冲，比如这个值是10，意思是公 ...

谢谢。不过有些抽象，能否以您以前提过的贝因美为例，讲解下？

风里飞侠

教授的600830还在吗，目前好像又到买点了。

vIL6

原帖由 pubmed 于 2012-5-25 21:03 发表

谢谢。不过有些抽象，能否以您以前提过的贝因美为例，讲解下？

刚刚买了宝洁，就以宝洁为例吧。三张表都得用上：

1. 损益表（Income Statement)

Millions	TTM	2011-06	2010-06	2009-06	2008-06	2007-06	2006-06	2005-06	2004-06	2003-06	2002-06
Revenue	85,374.00	82,559.00	78,938.00	79,029.00	83,503.00	76,476.00	68,222.00	56,741.00	51,407.00	43,377.00	40,238.00
Cost of revenue	43,335.00	40,768.00	37,919.00	38,898.00	40,695.00	36,686.00	33,125.00	27,804.00	25,076.00	22,141.00	20,989.00
Gross profit	42,039.00	41,791.00	41,019.00	40,131.00	42,808.00	39,790.00	35,097.00	28,937.00	26,331.00	21,236.00	19,249.00
Operating expenses
Sales, General and administrative	26,732.00	25,973.00	24,998.00	24,008.00	25,725.00	24,340.00	21,848.00	18,010.00	16,504.00	13,383.00	12,571.00
Other operating expenses	1,576.00
Total operating expenses	28,308.00	25,973.00	24,998.00	24,008.00	25,725.00	24,340.00	21,848.00	18,010.00	16,504.00	13,383.00	12,571.00
Operating income	13,731.00	15,818.00	16,021.00	16,123.00	17,083.00	15,450.00	13,249.00	10,927.00	9,827.00	7,853.00	6,678.00
Interest Expense	799.00	831.00	946.00	1,358.00	1,467.00	1,304.00	1,119.00	834.00	629.00	561.00	603.00
Other income (expense)	269.00	202.00	-28.00	560.00	462.00	564.00	283.00	346.00	152.00	238.00	308.00
Income before taxes	13,201.00	15,189.00	15,047.00	15,325.00	16,078.00	14,710.00	12,413.00	10,439.00	9,350.00	7,530.00	6,383.00
Provision for income taxes	3,530.00	3,392.00	4,101.00	4,032.00	4,003.00	4,370.00	3,729.00	3,182.00	2,869.00	2,344.00	2,031.00
Net income from continuing operations	9,671.00	11,797.00	10,946.00	11,293.00	12,075.00	10,340.00	8,684.00	7,257.00	6,481.00	5,186.00	4,352.00
Net income from discontinuing ops	-25.00		1,790.00	2,143.00
Other	-11.00
Net income	9,635.00	11,797.00	12,736.00	13,436.00	12,075.00	10,340.00	8,684.00	7,257.00	6,481.00	5,186.00	4,352.00
Preferred dividend	247.00	233.00	219.00	192.00	176.00	161.00	148.00	136.00	131.00	125.00	124.00
Net income available to common shareholders	9,388.00	11,564.00	12,517.00	13,244.00	11,899.00	10,179.00	8,536.00	7,121.00	6,350.00	5,061.00	4,228.00
Earnings per share
Basic	3.40	4.12	4.32	4.49	3.86	3.22	2.79	2.83	2.46	1.95	1.63
Diluted	3.18	3.93	4.11	4.26	3.64	3.04	2.64	2.66	2.32	1.85	1.55
Weighted average shares outstanding
Basic	2,761.00	2,804.00	2,901.00	2,952.00	3,081.00	3,159.00	3,055.00	2,516.00	2,580.00	2,593.00	2,595.00
Diluted	2,954.00	3,002.00	3,099.00	3,154.00	3,317.00	3,399.00	3,286.00	2,726.00	2,790.00	2,803.00	2,810.00

从这张表上可以得到每年的利息开支，上个财年是8.31亿美元。

vIL6

从资产负债表上得到手上的现金有多少，上个财年是28.79亿美元

Millions	2011-06	2010-06	2009-06	2008-06	2007-06	2006-06	2005-06	2004-06	2003-06	2002-06
Assets
Current assets
Cash
Cash and cash equivalents	2,768	2,879	4,781	3,313	5,354	6,693	6,389	5,469	5,912	3,427
Short-term investments				228	202	1,133	1,744	423	300	196
Total cash	2,768	2,879	4,781	3,541	5,556	7,826	8,133	5,892	6,212	3,623
Receivables	6,275	5,335	5,836	6,761	6,629	5,725	4,185	4,062	3,038	3,090
Inventories	7,379	6,384	6,880	8,416	6,819	6,291	5,006	4,400	3,640	3,456
Deferred income taxes	1,140	990	1,209	2,012	1,727	1,611	1,081	958	843	521
Prepaid expenses	4,408	3,194	3,199	3,785	3,300	2,876	1,924	1,803	1,487	1,476
Total current assets	21,970	18,782	21,905	24,515	24,031	24,329	20,329	17,115	15,220	12,166
Non-current assets
Property, plant and equipment
Gross property, plant and equipment	41,507	37,012	36,651	38,086	34,721	31,881	26,325	25,304	23,542	23,070
Accumulated Depreciation	-20,214	-17,768	-17,189	-17,446	-15,181	-13,111	-11,993	-11,196	-10,438	-9,721
Net property, plant and equipment	21,293	19,244	19,462	20,640	19,540	18,770	14,332	14,108	13,104	13,349
Goodwill	57,562	54,012	56,512	59,767	56,552	55,306
Intangible assets	32,620	31,636	32,606	34,233	33,626	33,721	24,163	23,900	13,507	13,430
Other long-term assets	4,909	4,498	4,348	4,837	4,265	3,569	2,703	1,925	1,875	1,831
Total non-current assets	116,384	109,390	112,928	119,477	113,983	111,366	41,198	39,933	28,486	28,610
Total assets	138,354	128,172	134,833	143,992	138,014	135,695	61,527	57,048	43,706	40,776
Liabilities and stockholders' equity
Liabilities
Current liabilities
Short-term debt	9,981	8,472	16,320	13,084	12,039	2,128	11,441	8,287	2,172	3,731
Accounts payable	8,022	7,251	5,980	6,775	5,710	4,910	3,802	3,617	2,795	2,205
Accrued liabilities	9,290	8,559	8,601	10,154	608	4,964	7,531	7,689	5,512	5,330
Other current liabilities				945	12,360	7,983	2,265	2,554	1,879	1,438
Total current liabilities	27,293	24,282	30,901	30,958	30,717	19,985	25,039	22,147	12,358	12,704
Non-current liabilities
Long-term debt	22,033	21,360	20,652	23,581	23,375	35,976	12,887	12,554	11,475	11,201
Deferred taxes liabilities	11,070	10,902	10,752	11,805	12,015	12,354	2,894	2,261	1,396	1,077
Minority interest	361	324
Other long-term liabilities	9,957	10,189	9,429	8,154	5,147	4,472	3,230	2,808	2,291	2,088
Total non-current liabilities	43,421	42,775	40,833	43,540	40,537	52,802	19,011	17,623	15,162	14,366
Total liabilities	70,714	67,057	71,734	74,498	71,254	72,787	44,050	39,770	27,520	27,070
Stockholders' equity
Preferred stock	1,234	1,277	1,324	1,366	1,406	1,451	1,483	1,526	1,580	1,634
Common stock	4,008	4,008	4,007	4,002		3,976	2,473	2,544	1,297	1,301
Other Equity	-1,357	-1,350	-1,340
Additional paid-in capital	62,405	61,697	61,118	60,307	63,020	57,856	3,142	2,425	2,931	2,490
Retained earnings	70,682	64,614	57,309	48,986	41,797	35,666	13,204	13,611	13,692	11,980
Treasury stock	-67,278	-61,309	-55,961	-47,588	-38,772	-34,235
Accumulated other comprehensive income	-2,054	-7,822	-3,358	2,421	-691	-1,806	-2,825	-2,828	-3,314	-3,699
Total stockholders' equity	67,640	61,115	63,099	69,494	66,760	62,908	17,477	17,278	16,186	13,706
Total liabilities and stockholders' equity	138,354	128,172	134,833	143,992	138,014	135,695	61,527	57,048	43,706	40,776

vIL6

再从现金流量表中得到自由现金流，上个财年是99.26亿美元。

Millions	TTM	2011-06	2010-06	2009-06	2008-06	2007-06	2006-06	2005-06	2004-06	2003-06	2002-06
Cash Flows From Operating Activities
Net income	9,646	11,797	12,736	13,436	12,075	10,340	8,684	7,257	6,481	5,186	4,352
Depreciation & amortization	3,162	2,838	3,108	3,082	3,166	3,130	2,627	1,884	1,733	1,703	1,693
Deferred income taxes	-63	128	36	596	1,214	253	-112	650	415	63	389
Stock based compensation	396	414	453	516
Accounts receivable	-278	-426	-14	415
Inventory	29	-501	86	721	-1,050	-389	383	-644	56	-56	159
Other working capital	-1,205	-832	2,141	-1,500	-673	-1,159	-792	-712	378	1,277	682
Other non-cash items	1,403	-187	-2,474	-2,347	1,082	1,260	585	287	299	527	467
Net cash provided by operating activities	13,090	13,231	16,072	14,919	15,814	13,435	11,375	8,722	9,362	8,700	7,742
Cash Flows From Investing Activities
Investments in property, plant, and equipment	-3,903	-3,306	-3,067	-3,238	-3,046	-2,945	-2,667	-2,181	-2,024	-1,482	-1,679
Property, plant, and equipment reductions	426	225	3,068		928	281	882	517	230	143	227
Acquisitions, net	11	-474	-425	-368	-381	-492	171	-572	-7,476	-61	-5,471
Purchases of investments					-50			-100	-121	-107
Sales/Maturities of investments				166		673	884				88
Other investing activities	66	73	-173	1,087
Net cash used for investing activities	-3,400	-3,482	-597	-2,353	-2,549	-2,483	-730	-2,336	-9,391	-1,507	-6,835
Cash Flows From Financing Activities
Debt issued	3,985	1,536	3,830	4,926
Debt repayment	-2,083	-55	-10,344	-5,007
Common stock issued					1,867	1,499	1,319	478	555	269	237
Common stock repurchased	-6,526	-7,039	-6,004	-6,370	-10,047	-5,578	-16,830	-5,026	-4,070	-1,236	-568
Dividend paid	-6,051	-5,767	-5,458	-5,044	-4,655	-4,209	-3,703	-2,731	-2,539	-2,246	-2,095
Other financing activities	2,050	1,302	721	681	-2,815	-4,190	8,636	3,111	5,686	-1,882	2,623
Net cash provided by (used for) financing activities	-8,625	-10,023	-17,255	-10,814	-15,650	-12,478	-10,578	-4,168	-368	-5,095	197
Effect of exchange rate changes	-20	163	-122	-284	344	187	237	-61	-46	387	17
Net change in cash	1,045	-111	-1,902	1,468	-2,041	-1,339	304	2,157	-443	2,485	1,121
Cash at beginning of period	2,946	2,879	4,781	3,313	5,354	6,693	6,389	4,232	5,912	3,427	2,306
Cash at end of period	3,991	2,768	2,879	4,781	3,313	5,354	6,693	6,389	5,469	5,912	3,427
Free Cash Flow
Operating cash flow	13,090	13,231	16,072	14,919	15,814	13,435	11,375	8,722	9,362	8,700	7,742
Capital expenditure	-3,903	-3,306	-3,067	-3,238	-3,046	-2,945	-2,667	-2,181	-2,024	-1,482	-1,679
Free cash flow	9,187	9,925	13,005	11,681	12,768	10,490	8,708	6,541	7,338	7,218	6,063

vIL6

现金缓冲＝（28.79＋99.26）／8.31＝15.4

一年下来，宝洁手中余下的现金可以覆盖利息15次多，可见他的财务状况有多健康，有足够的钱用来分红、股票回购、并购以及维护核心产品的市场份额。

淡泊赚了就跑

#*22*# 早 ····教授·

vIL6

宝洁近5年自由现金流平均为115.74亿美元，以63美元股价计算，共有27.61亿股，目前自由现金回报率为6.65％，长期增长率4％，动态自由现金流收益率为10.65％。宝洁作为质量最高的公司之一，有这样的回报率不错了。

vIL6

05/25/12

am8188

跟教授学了很多，请教一个问题。地产政策似乎一直打压，财务指标的几个参数（尤其是现金流）也不好，这个令人不解。

烟锁红楼

上市公司自由现金流估值.doc (75 KB, 下载次数: 10)

2012-5-27 18:49 上传

点击文件名下载附件

请教授给分析下，谢谢

烟锁红楼

vIL6

原帖由 烟锁红楼 于 2012-5-27 18:49 发表

请教授给分析下，谢谢

我仔细看了一下中工国际的年报，你的表格中计算没有错。但是，自由现金流收益率运用在稳定的优势企业上才有意义。就以中工国际为例，2010年和2011年之间起伏如此巨大，不知道该相信哪一年的数据反映了企业的真实盈利能力，2011年增加那么多的现金流能不能持续呢？

剑八

从本质出发,一切迎刃而解.....