The Russell 2000 remains my favorite index on which to buy puts. But we remain trapped in a trading range. If this pushes above $801, all bets are off. In fact, I'd get very skeptical if things even pushed above $796. This is a minute-bar graph:
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rb6MiZaozbI/AAAAAAAAA3o/ShBBloQXvjk/s400/0129-%24rut.jpg
The S&P 500 is a more popular index venue, although to my way of thinking this is not as vulnerable as the Russell 2000. But you can see trendline behavior similar to what was witnessed above with the Dow.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rb6MipaozcI/AAAAAAAAA3w/5T0sqOs60KY/s400/0129-%24spx.jpg
I haven't been trading the $XAU (gold and silver) for a while, but this index seems to be heading south. Even if it reverses, the recent high price is such an obvious stop-loss level that this is a pretty low-risk trade.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rb6MTZaozXI/AAAAAAAAA3I/CClBdw4NVxI/s400/0129-%24xa.jpg
Now a few other short ideas to chew on. Exxon Mobil (XOM):
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Now a few other short ideas to chew on. Exxon Mobil (XOM):
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rb6MM5aozTI/AAAAAAAAA2o/4W5MeS6rhG0/s400/0129-xom.jpg
Chicago Mercantile (CME), which at these price levels easily gains or losses double-digits worth of points on any given day:
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rb6MNJaozUI/AAAAAAAAA2w/9IK2TvQT2yE/s400/0129-cme.jpg
BP, which continues to be in the throes of forming a head and shoulders pattern (as yet incomplete).
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rb6MNJaozVI/AAAAAAAAA24/zWN8P58Ajbk/s400/0129-bp.jpg
And, lastly, Bank of America (BAC) seems to be finally falling - - with nice volume too! My puts on this have been inching higher.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rb6MNZaozWI/AAAAAAAAA3A/BKPfXP4dCrA/s400/0129-bac.jpg
is coming out in just a few more weeks! Stay tuned!
at 1/29/2007 9 insightful comments
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Labels: bac, bp, cme, xom
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Friday, January 26, 2007Stalled Bull
Even the most fervent bull would have to admit at this point that, at least for the immediate moment, things have stalled. The week as a whole was down for the markets, and in spite of a lifetime high on the Dow this week, there's plenty of news and market action out there to scare our bullish friends.
Let me show you something interesting. Below is a chart of the S&P 100 ($OEX) over more than a decade. I have drawn a Fibonacci retracement from the peak in early 2000 to the nadir in October 2002.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RbqQRZaozSI/AAAAAAAAA10/3R6iqLE1j5Q/s400/0126-%24oex.jpg
Now let's take a closer look at the same index. The 61.8% retracement level was 702.13. And what was the peak this week before it reversed? 699.99. In other words, the market climbed to 99.7% of its anticipated retracement before reversing. Pretty impressive!
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RbqQJ5aozRI/AAAAAAAAA1s/z0XNptXCFX4/s400/0126-%24oexclose.jpg
The Dow Transports continue to be relatively bearish. I've marked the level they need to crack before we can consider this a new series of "lower highs/lower lows."
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RbqQEZaozNI/AAAAAAAAA1M/2CoU-aup9TU/s400/0126-%24tran.jpg
Although the S&P 500 pierced its retracement level a while ago, at least it neatly bounced off its trendline.
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Although the S&P 500 pierced its retracement level a while ago, at least it neatly bounced off its trendline.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RbqQEpaozOI/AAAAAAAAA1U/2THsU_fsO9c/s400/0126-%24spx.jpg
As I've said repeatedly, this is not a bear market until we break the uptrend. And we have not broken the uptrend! So the bulls still run the show. It is heartening, at least, to see what a monstrous divergence exists between the price action and the RSI.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RbqQE5aozPI/AAAAAAAAA1c/Fh0S4_Yo0t0/s400/0126-%24indu.jpg
For more bearish evidence, take a look at the NASDAQ. If you consider this price channel to be meaningful, take a look at the bullish upside (green) and the bearish downside (red). One is a lot bigger than the other, isn't it? I'd say the risk/reward ratio gives the favor to the bears.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RbqQFJaozQI/AAAAAAAAA1k/Idn_5odv-4o/s400/0126-%24compq.jpg
Now - as always - some bearish ideas worth examining. Behemoth Microsoft (MSFT):
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Now - as always - some bearish ideas worth examining. Behemoth Microsoft (MSFT):
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RbqPvpaozII/AAAAAAAAA0k/n4HhYO0IkDQ/s400/0126-msft.jpg
FCX:
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RbqPv5aozJI/AAAAAAAAA0s/HOn8Ev5Qrkg/s400/0126-fcx.jpg
ETR:
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RbqPwJaozKI/AAAAAAAAA00/nLXakWq_jIs/s400/0126-etr.jpg
Camden Property Trust (CPT):
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Camden Property Trust (CPT):
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RbqPwZaozLI/AAAAAAAAA08/Kt4R4LTZTts/s400/0126-cpt.jpg
CKH:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RbqPwpaozMI/AAAAAAAAA1E/bP7rwYFsEpE/s400/0126-ckh.jpg
It's been a pretty good week. I'm sure those who follow NutriSystem, mentioned here several times as a bearish idea, enjoyed the drop today.
Thousands of people stop by each day to read this blog, and I want you to know I appreciate it. Doing this blog helps me think more clearly about the markets, and it's fun for me to share my views. Do keep swinging by!
at 1/26/2007 9 insightful comments
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Labels: $compq, $indu, $oex, $spx, $tran, ckh, cpt etr, fcx, msft
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Thursday, January 25, 2007Engulfed
What is with this crazy market? Don't get me wrong; a triple-digit down day on the Dow is terrific. But this market is heading for the nut house.
Over the past trading week, there have been two instances of big bearish engulfing patterns on the $NDX. Today's was a whopper. Having a superstar like EBAY up in the double digits at the open and yet have a wipe-out like this is really encouraging.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rbk-dpaozHI/AAAAAAAAAzw/Y6HIxVFoJVA/s400/0125-%24ndx.jpg
The $SPX bounced off that resistance line beautifully. The market still has no direction, though. It's neither bullish nor bearish. Just schizo.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rbk-aZaozGI/AAAAAAAAAzo/xeiCwAr42xI/s400/0125-%24spx.jpg
The rest are straight-up short ideas. AMX:
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rbk-XZaozFI/AAAAAAAAAzg/l9EK2tao68s/s400/0125-amx.jpg
AutoZone (AZO), still in the stratosphere:
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AutoZone (AZO), still in the stratosphere:
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rbk-UZaozEI/AAAAAAAAAzY/xP9kdJraqkg/s400/0125-azo.jpg
Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL), approaching resistance:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rbk-Q5aozDI/AAAAAAAAAzQ/Y2jDfySeHOQ/s400/0125-ccl.jpg
Black and Decker (BDK):
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rbk-MZaozCI/AAAAAAAAAzI/hPlCVR69kWw/s400/0125-bdk.jpg
Goldman Sachs (GS), finally getting a reversal:
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Goldman Sachs (GS), finally getting a reversal:
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rbk-HJaozBI/AAAAAAAAAzA/NExQRQbs09Q/s400/0125-gs.jpg
LLL:
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rbk-DJaozAI/AAAAAAAAAy4/KwRupb2PW84/s400/0125-lll.jpg
NutriSystem (NTRI), with its cup and handle pattern failing:
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rbk99paoy_I/AAAAAAAAAyw/AU8yKLTwulo/s400/0125-ntri.jpg
RTI:
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http://bbs.macd.cn/attachments.php?aid=1689603&noupdate=yes&3
醉僧试剑
RTI:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rbk945aoy-I/AAAAAAAAAyo/UQxF0fNB7rw/s400/0125-rti.jpg
Sears Holding (SHLD), also weakening:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rbk905aoy9I/AAAAAAAAAyg/3Y9aJf06OO4/s400/0125-shld.jpg
Now for your occasional clip of the day! The world's worst weatherman. Brace yourselves.
at 1/25/2007 6 insightful comments
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Labels: $ndx, $spx, amx, azo, bdk, ccl, gs, lll, ntri, rti, shld
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-5 08:09 编辑 ]
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