Wednesday, January 24, 2007It is a Most Elusive Fish...
The markets were very strong today. At least I am not putting my foot in my mouth. I've made it very clear lately that until there's a clear "rupture", we're still in bull-land. Earnings season isn't doing a hell of a lot so far for our cause. It reminds me of a favorite movie clip of mine......
The Dow Jones 30, shown below, hit another lifetime high today. I wouldn't be shocked if we pushed all the way toward 13,000 in the coming weeks. Earnings from EBAY this evening have the stock up over 10%.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rbfv5paoy8I/AAAAAAAAAx4/118-wEWaYJ4/s400/0124-%24indu.jpg
The S&P 500, while not at a lifetime high (its high in early 2000 stands unbeaten) is nonetheless at the very highest point of a massive ascending wedge. Looking at the charts tonight, it's obvious that the strength is widespread and devastating to the bears. (Goldman Sachs just being one of countless examples).
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rbfv2paoy7I/AAAAAAAAAxw/4FSjxCWL37s/s400/0124-%24spx.jpg
The only bearish holdout is the beleaguered Dow Transports. Of course, I'm sure the bulls will say Dow Theory is sad and outmoded and should be ignored.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RbfvzJaoy6I/AAAAAAAAAxo/5h99dX672os/s400/0124-%24tran.jpg
If there are any living bears still out there, I like the looks of Adobe (ADBE).
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If there are any living bears still out there, I like the looks of Adobe (ADBE).
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rbfvu5aoy5I/AAAAAAAAAxg/do_pVqBXueI/s400/0124-adbe.jpg
...as well as Black and Decker (BDK).
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rbfvnpaoy4I/AAAAAAAAAxY/gg0bawWj_IA/s400/0124-bdk.jpg
For a bullish play, CRR looks like it is beginning to turn northward after a long slide.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rbfuo5aoy3I/AAAAAAAAAxQ/TUb5b3sxAmU/s400/0124-crr.jpg
Ryland (RYL) has recovered back to its neckline, although I use that term somewhat loosely since this isn't much of a head and shoulders pattern. All the same, with this much recovery under its belt, it makes going short the stock much less risky.
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Ryland (RYL) has recovered back to its neckline, although I use that term somewhat loosely since this isn't much of a head and shoulders pattern. All the same, with this much recovery under its belt, it makes going short the stock much less risky.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RbfujZaoy2I/AAAAAAAAAxI/ZtQgciWcDJU/s400/0124-ryl.jpg
Much the same logic holds true for Sierra Health (SIE).
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rbfudpaoy1I/AAAAAAAAAxA/iLAkMrAIXdY/s400/0124-sie.jpg
Lastly, I will mention one short suggested here, Textron (TXT), seems to be getting slammed . Nice to have one bright spot to anticipate for the morning!
at 1/24/2007 8 insightful comments
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Labels: $indu, $spx, $tran, adbe, bdk, crr, new high, ryl, sie
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Tuesday, January 23, 2007Airport Quickie
This is going to be one of those "at the airport" quickie posts.
Today the market recovered partly from yesterday's sell-off. All eyes are on earnings, naturally. We are, for the zillionth time, in a middleground where it's not clear if the market's going to push higher or lower. Just look at this graph of the Russell 2000 from the past 60 days on a minute by minute basis. Just no clear direction whatever!
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RbaFcZaoyzI/AAAAAAAAAwc/kh7ZwAYXcjY/s400/0123-%24rut.jpg
ANDE, a long suggestion posted earlier in this space, is continuing to perform well. Breaking above the horizontal line would obviously be a good thing for owners of this stock.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RbaFb5aoywI/AAAAAAAAAwE/3LeH2JjmNKk/s400/0123-ande.jpg
Bank of America (BAC), on which I own puts, announced great earnings today and fell. Good.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RbaFcZaoyyI/AAAAAAAAAwU/P-8u5JGMKRY/s400/0123-bac.jpg
Lastly, Health.net (HNT), although not a slam-dunk pattern, seems bearish enough to mention.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RbaF2Jaoy0I/AAAAAAAAAwk/ujFOiMxZGuw/s400/0123-hnt.jpg
For those of you who enjoyed BillyWitchDoctor.com yesterday, I'm glad. For those who had no idea what it was about, I congratulate you on your sanity.
at 1/23/2007 5 insightful comments
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Labels: $rut, ande, bac, hnt
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Monday, January 22, 2007Ultra Chicken
I've been wrong enough to know that I'm not going to start cheering on a bear market. The market was down today. I'm glad. Maybe it'll be down a lot more this week. Which will make me happier still. But until we have a no-doubt-about-it rupture in the uptrend, I'm keeping my furry mouth shut.
The $VIX may have formed a "V" bottom with recent activity, which would obviously be good for both put holders (me) and bears (me again).
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RbVe6paoyvI/AAAAAAAAAvU/Xb8wKYGfU_0/s400/0122-%24vix.jpg
I've mentioned AMLN a bunch recently, and it continues to behave like a good little stock (on the short side).
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RbVe2ZaoyuI/AAAAAAAAAvM/pXnvF_iPWe4/s400/0122-amln.jpg
I take pride in being such a pure technician that I know only the ticker symbol - - I don't know the company's name, and I certainly don't know what it does. The symbol is AXR. I shorted it Friday. And today it lost double-digits of points. Nice.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RbVeypaoytI/AAAAAAAAAvE/qke-B2yjArs/s400/0122-axr.jpg
I got burned a couple of weeks back buying puts on superstock AutoZone (AZO). I'm ready for more punishment.
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I got burned a couple of weeks back buying puts on superstock AutoZone (AZO). I'm ready for more punishment.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RbVeupaoysI/AAAAAAAAAu8/qVql4mBEoQI/s400/0122-azo.jpg
Cigna is a much less volatile stock, but I see a double top here and a stairstep down these Fibonacci levels forthcoming.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RbVeq5aoyrI/AAAAAAAAAu0/AzE_u2AG7-w/s400/0122-ci.jpg
Shoe god Nike is another security on which I own puts. It took a nice little stumble today, but I have much bigger ambitions on this one.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RbVem5aoyqI/AAAAAAAAAus/jrhtBumakxw/s400/0122-nke.jpg
I haven't touched NutriSystem in ages, but I'm ready to go back into the water. There's a small head and shoulders pattern here, and this is the kind of fad stock that can succumb to gravity.
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I haven't touched NutriSystem in ages, but I'm ready to go back into the water. There's a small head and shoulders pattern here, and this is the kind of fad stock that can succumb to gravity.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RbVejJaoypI/AAAAAAAAAuk/LH5c3WflZ7w/s400/0122-ntri.jpg
RAI is a good short in the world of metals.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RbVec5aoyoI/AAAAAAAAAuc/Ft62nTevE5M/s400/0122-rai.jpg
...as is RTI......
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RbVeYJaoynI/AAAAAAAAAuU/M2bkYthojk8/s400/0122-rti.jpg
Sears Holding (SHLD) is another item I've avoided, only because it has the makings of such a sensational cup with handle pattern. But this pattern is starting to look shaky, so I'm OK putting some risk capital into some puts on this one.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RbVeT5aoymI/AAAAAAAAAuM/rm91EIUH4s0/s400/0122-shld.jpg
Lastly, a bit from one of my favorite cartoons - Aqua Teen Hunger Force. This one is only a little offensive, so you are probably safe clicking the Play button, no matter how far away you live from the coasts of this great nation.
at 1/22/2007 12 insightful comments
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Labels: amln, axr, azo, ci, nke, ntri, rai, rti, shld
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Friday, January 19, 2007Week's End
There was an about the GAO's report to Congress about the looming financial catastrophe facing the U.S. This is getting much less attention than it deserves. You can read the original GAO the Federal Government to issue a report sub-titled "Saving Our Future Requires Tough Choices Today" is surprisingly candid. And you know how adept the government is at tough choices (hint: it isn't).
Here's one graphic from the report, showing how the social security trust fund is going to dip into the red in just ten years. Just look at the deficits grow to $400 billion per year!
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RbE0PypIMTI/AAAAAAAAAts/UsqVslLpNYw/s400/0120-%24deficit.jpg
It's been a while since I mentioned any FOREX trades, but the New Zealand Dollar (NZD/USD) looks pretty interesting as a short. I'd say if it trades anywhere north of 73 cents, I'm wrong. I've drawn a horizontal line suggesting what seems to be a strong resistance level.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RbE0NCpIMSI/AAAAAAAAAtk/uUJOOcsgi7U/s400/0120-%24nzd.jpg
My OIH calls are doing well. All the press about crude oil's plunge in prices in a good contrarian indicator of a short-term bottom.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RbE0IipIMRI/AAAAAAAAAtc/duKq329Q3IE/s400/0120-%24oih.jpg
I mentioned Abbott Labs (ABT) a while back as a promising bullish play. It seems to be going that direction. The strong volume only helps.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RbE0EipIMQI/AAAAAAAAAtU/jAMdRN6eUkA/s400/0120-abt.jpg
Coldwater Creek (CWTR) got hammered today. Trendlines did their magic once again. Chartists were given fair warning recently when prices violated the ascending trendline. Prices pushed higher from there, but then got really ragged around the trendline again.
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Coldwater Creek (CWTR) got hammered today. Trendlines did their magic once again. Chartists were given fair warning recently when prices violated the ascending trendline. Prices pushed higher from there, but then got really ragged around the trendline again.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RbE0BCpIMPI/AAAAAAAAAtM/iUPFVN5G1mk/s400/0120-cwtr.jpg
One new short idea is Martin Marietta (MLM). This appears to be a solid double top. This kind of pattern is nice since the risk is relatively low (e.g. the stop price would be $114).
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RbEz9SpIMOI/AAAAAAAAAtE/cSDZ_Wj47G8/s400/0120-mlm.jpg
at 1/19/2007 8 insightful comments
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Labels: abt, deficit, kiwi, mlm, new zealand, nzd/usd
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飞天棍僧
Wednesday, January 17, 2007When Great News Doesn't Help
After the market closed today, tech bellwether Apple, Inc. announced not just great earnings, but Oh My God blowout earnings. And how did the market react after hours?GLOBEX is down too. When stocks soften on amazingly great earnings, that's a good sign for us ursine types.
Some indexes pushed to lifetime highs intraday today, but ran out of steam. I do not see any sensational, obvious, the-world-is-coming-to-an-end type pattern. If the market falls, it's going to do so simply because there are no more Greater Fools. As for the S&P 500, shown below, it needs to break below 1,400 before things get interesting.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Ra61ASpIMMI/AAAAAAAAAsU/RSzdYz_a-rw/s400/0117-%24spx.jpg
The Russell 2000 seems to be consolidating right now. I am hoping the current consolidation is similar to the prior one, both of which are shown in light blue highlighting here.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Ra61ASpIMNI/AAAAAAAAAsc/khWdwnP5JFg/s400/0117-%24rut.jpg
And check out the Transports - aren't trendlines amazing? The prices did a perfect about-face.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Ra606CpIMLI/AAAAAAAAAsM/nN-B678PjqQ/s400/0117-%24tran.jpg
My AMLN short - so far, so good. It's down to $40 in after-hours trading. This is a sharp looking graph.
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-5 08:22 编辑 ]
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