Wednesday, December 27, 200612,500
Wow. They finally did it. The bulls got the Dow over 12,500. 2006 is definitely going to be a year of great memories for the bulls. Congratulations, longhorns!
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RZLxkL9nfoI/AAAAAAAAAYM/bheLrVPqyfs/s400/1228-%24indu.jpg
If you look at the performance of the various indices this year, you can see that - strangely - the Dow 30 is the king. Clearly mega-caps are on top of the world. The Dow is usually the boring, staid index compared to the likes of the NASDAQ. The laggard here is in fact the NASDAQ 100.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RZLxf79nfnI/AAAAAAAAAYE/qE59jrPYpUg/s400/1228-%24comparison.jpg
One chart that provides some small bit of comfort to bears is of the S&P 500. Take a look at how the index has behaved within the confines of the channel I have drawn. It certainly seems that the time is pretty ripe for a push downward. We are completely mushed up against the highest bounds of the channel, and the time space between the arrows is calling for a fall.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RZLxbb9nfmI/AAAAAAAAAX8/YhKsA8Qd7JI/s400/1228-%24spx.jpg
Anderson (ANDE) is a pretty handsome looking chart to buy (yes, buy). The volume is relatively anemic, however, and that's not a great confirmation sign.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RZLxWb9nflI/AAAAAAAAAX0/LcMONlhqJ-4/s400/1228-ande.jpg
Immucor (BLUD), which I've mentioned many times in the past as a buy, continues to push higher. The higher it goes, the stronger it looks.
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Immucor (BLUD), which I've mentioned many times in the past as a buy, continues to push higher. The higher it goes, the stronger it looks.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RZLxSb9nfkI/AAAAAAAAAXs/6R4rNystQVA/s400/1228-blud.jpg
Express Scripts (ESRX) actually fell today, in spite of the triple-digit rise on the Dow. I've always enjoyed this one as a bearish play, and I'm in it again.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RZLxO79nfjI/AAAAAAAAAXk/ATAyWNr-2Sk/s400/1228-esrx.jpg
Google is still looking good for a fall, in spite of recent strength.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RZLxKb9nfiI/AAAAAAAAAXc/2-vOuUQr1es/s400/1228-googlong.jpg
Looking closer, one could even suggest a small head and shoulders pattern recently. Today's big upward move was a nice retracement to the neckline.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RZLxE79nfhI/AAAAAAAAAXU/kHJX6cThAjs/s400/1228-goog.jpg
There are only two days left to the very tough year.......I suspect the bulls are going to just keep padding their gains.
Hope springs eternal. Come on, 2007 - - be kind to us!
at 12/27/2006 9 insightful comments
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Labels: $spx, ande, blud, goog, new high
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Friday, December 22, 2006Loving the Lump
Yesterday I wrote....
I was hoping for a nice nasty surprise from RIMM, but they had blowout earnings and their stock is way, way high in after hours trading. I wouldn't drop dead of shock if they ended the day down tomorrow. It's just a hunch. Maybe a completely stupid hunch, but a hunch nonetheless. I'm hanging on to these March puts.
Well, well, well. The hunch was right. RIMM was in record high territory after hours yesterday. Once reality started to sink in, the gains diminished, and the stock fell on the day. Let me be clear here: for a stock to go down significantly on a day when blow-out earnings are reported, blow-out projections are made, and record highs are made prior to the open........well, sweet dreams are made of this.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYxMJb9nfcI/AAAAAAAAAWY/vN59q94TAYw/s400/1222-rimm.jpg
I also still like the look of MCK. Maybe my hunches have a bit more credibility now. Plus the Fib fans.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYxMJr9nfdI/AAAAAAAAAWg/h7tr-imuB-w/s400/1222-mck.jpg
Bank of America isn't going to have a Google-sized (anticipated) fall. It's a major bank, after all. But I think the best days of this stock are through.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYxMJr9nfeI/AAAAAAAAAWo/283r12sC2j0/s400/1222-bac.jpg
$XAU has a lot of room left to free-fall.
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$XAU has a lot of room left to free-fall.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYxMJ79nffI/AAAAAAAAAWw/aEdN9QOXATo/s400/1222-%24xau.jpg
And although I'm not in an $MSH position (I'm in $NDX), this is a good prospective put purchase. Very toppy.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYxMJ79nfgI/AAAAAAAAAW4/UHvOKadIBxA/s400/1222-%24msh.jpg
This has nothing to do with trading, but I loved the Lisa Lampanelli bit of the William Shatner roast. As a lifelong Trek fan (of the Original Series......please!) I found the entire event a kick. You froo-froo types, don't bother. But if you want a good laugh and don't mind the raunch, here you go.....
Oh, and Merry Christmas, everyone. Let us look forward to a year of delivering lumps of coal to bulls - both naughty and nice - in the year ahead.
at 12/22/2006 30 insightful comments
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Labels: $msh, $xau, bac, mck, rimm
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Thursday, December 21, 2006RIMM Job
It's nice to feel on top of the market again. It's no disaster for the bulls, but days like this give one hope.
My shorts in $XAU (gold/silver), which a lot of commenters have slammed the past couple of weeks, are doing well. $XAU kind of gave up the ghost today. No more petite inching down. It fell in a meaningful way. This makes the likelihood of a meaty fall a lot stronger.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYsgpb9nfbI/AAAAAAAAAV0/cSzKm4nmSCM/s400/1221-%24xau.jpg
High-priced stocks like CME can lose double digits of dollars each day, which makes them great for put owners. It's getting closer to the trendline. Can it crack through?
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYsgpb9nfaI/AAAAAAAAAVs/I_qNzRXR1Bw/s400/1221-cme.jpg
TSO's top looks lovelier every passing day.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYsgXb9nfVI/AAAAAAAAAVE/Mmx1wpDR3_w/s400/1221-tso.jpg
I got snookered into thinking Sears (SHLD) was going to be a superstock. But as I've reminded myself, and others - - it's Sears. Are polyester pantsuits coming back? Does every household need ten new lawnmowers? I confess I have no position in this stock, but I sure envy you put-holders out there.
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I got snookered into thinking Sears (SHLD) was going to be a superstock. But as I've reminded myself, and others - - it's Sears. Are polyester pantsuits coming back? Does every household need ten new lawnmowers? I confess I have no position in this stock, but I sure envy you put-holders out there.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYsgXr9nfWI/AAAAAAAAAVM/RY_FiYHtgdQ/s400/1221-shld.jpg
The disgusting, greedy pigs at Goldman Sachs that have bled obscene bonuses out of their firm this year have been getting a lot of press. Don't you think investment banks have jumped the shark by now? I sure do.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYsgXr9nfXI/AAAAAAAAAVU/3UUkdDZih3M/s400/1221-gs.jpg
Yep, that twinkle in my eye is Google, everyone's favorite company ever to exist. Chip, chip, chip. Lower each day. So much for the hockey stick.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYsgX79nfYI/AAAAAAAAAVc/kF2hE7eqYVk/s400/1221-goog.jpg
FDX continues to be weak, even after the impact of earnings was absorbed yesterday.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYsgX79nfZI/AAAAAAAAAVk/TFpVTNDSPw8/s400/1221-fdx.jpg
I was hoping for a nice nasty surprise from RIMM, but they had blowout earnings and their stock is way, way high in after hours trading. I wouldn't drop dead of shock if they ended the day down tomorrow. It's just a hunch. Maybe a completely stupid hunch, but a hunch nonetheless. I'm hanging on to these March puts.
at 12/21/2006 17 insightful comments
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Labels: $xau, cme, goog, gs, shld, tso
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Wednesday, December 20, 2006Baby Got Redback
As regular readers know, although I'm a bear (in both real life and my Second Life), I do publish bullish charts some of the time (maybe 10%). One stock I've consistently point out as having a handsomely bullish pattern is RBAK, which I first mentioned over a year ago in my At the time, RBAK was about $9 per share. It was purchased today for $25 per share, and the stock price actually closed north of that.
The calls I bought on RBAK a month or so ago more than tripled in price over a small amount of time. Now this is a beautiful example of an inverted head and shoulders pattern in action!
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYmv-L9nfTI/AAAAAAAAAUI/NtaEZGoQKqg/s400/1220-%24rbak.jpg
What's funny to me is some highly-paid analyst published a report in the wee hours of this morning stating, in brief, (1) RBAK had reached its target price, so they were downgrading it (2) a buyout was not likely "in the near future" (which, given the outcome, I guess meant within the next 30 minutes following the publication of the report).. Wow, what an embarassment. Analysts have never been worth a sack of crap, have they?
The $INDU reached yet another all-time intraday high today (turd monkeys!) but closed down a bit. The divergence between the RSI and the price action is absolutely huge. Come ON, you stupid market, would you fall already? Jesus H. Christ!
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYmv2L9nfRI/AAAAAAAAAT4/A4s2xChalDA/s400/1220-%24indu.jpg
The NASDAQ continues to look weaker than the U.S. stock market as a whole.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYmvsb9nfPI/AAAAAAAAATo/C724ECcKS6k/s400/1220-%24ndx.jpg
...and the Dow Transports continue to act (alone) in a truly bearish fashion.
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...and the Dow Transports continue to act (alone) in a truly bearish fashion.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYmvm79nfOI/AAAAAAAAATg/e_7jdcLgv0M/s400/1220-%24tran.jpg
CDX, a short I've suggested before, had a nice down day - - I suppose led by FedEx's action.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYmvir9nfNI/AAAAAAAAATY/A9wYLu0CThQ/s400/1220-cdx.jpg
And speaking of FedEx, another item I've suggested shorting, it had a nice down day, although it certainly was no demolition of the stock. These things can take time, I suppose.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYmzx79nfUI/AAAAAAAAAUQ/xhZbGy7pkFw/s400/1220-fdx.jpg
One could make a flimsy argument that GOOG is sporting a petite head and shoulders pattern. I wouldn't even mention it. Oops, too late. Anyway, I have high (low) hopes for GOOG in January.
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One could make a flimsy argument that GOOG is sporting a petite head and shoulders pattern. I wouldn't even mention it. Oops, too late. Anyway, I have high (low) hopes for GOOG in January.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYmuwL9nfLI/AAAAAAAAATI/QpLIbfyVQXE/s400/1220-goog.jpg
Finally, TSO continues to be well behaved. This looks like a nice, fat toppy pattern to me.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYmurL9nfKI/AAAAAAAAATA/he2Efy76ra0/s400/1220-tso.jpg
Someone commented (and let me say, I really appreciate the comments section - - I read it religiously) that yesterday's graph of the coming disaster in Medicare has nothing to do with stocks or the financial markets. I dunno, I think the insolvency of the United States will surely be germane at some point.
Oh, I forgot. Liquidity. There's liquidity. And all that money needs a place to go. (Where it came from, no one knows - - actually they do - - leverage, leverage, leverage. Which, oh, is a two-edged sword). Anyway, liquidity is the current This Time It's Different argument. Just like how the Internet's productivity enhancement changed everything and justified the valuations of 1999.
People just never learn. Never. I simply cannot wait for those Liquidity twits to get blown to hell. Then at least we can wait a few years before we have to endure them again with another fabricated story.
at 12/20/2006 17 insightful comments
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Labels: $indu, $ndx, analysts, csx, fdx, goog, rbak, tso
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Tuesday, December 19, 2006Beyond Good and Evil
Well, the day started off well enough. A nice initial wallop. Regrettably, the markets clawed their way back up to end in positive territory. Chalk up "Mini Asian Financial Crisis" as yet another thing the markets can shrug off as irrelevant.
I found the graph about the Medicare gap particularly interesting. I don't think I've ever seen a y-axis before which measures "billions" of dollars with figures such as $16,000 (e.g. Sixteen Thousand Billion - - otherwise known as Sixteen Trillion). Umm, we are hosed, people. Wake up!
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYhxnL9nfII/AAAAAAAAAR8/H3LNtko4n3Y/s400/1219-%24medicare.jpg
AIV is representative of many REIT stocks, all of which are softening like butter on a midsummer's day.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYhxkb9nfHI/AAAAAAAAAR0/FdjGi8us1DY/s400/1219-aiv.jpg
BAC looks like the uptrend is over.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYhxgb9nfGI/AAAAAAAAARs/CpbHo5nBEEE/s400/1219-bac.jpg
BLUD, one of my few long suggestions, is still looking mighty purty.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYhxb79nfFI/AAAAAAAAARk/FDKPjgvWzA4/s400/1219-blud.jpg
BZH, another long suggestion, seems also poised for a rise.
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-6 07:46 编辑 ]
好好琢磨:*18*: :*18*: