And here's the broader S&P 500. The bulls have been totally in control for five solid months now. You can just about lay a ruler down from mid-July to mid-December and see the market zoom straight up. Ugh.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYHkLag19DI/AAAAAAAAAL4/SXzsumYCefQ/s400/1214-%24spx.jpg
The $VIX, which was in single digit territory a couple of weeks back, has returned to that astonishingly low level. The $VIX had risen for a bit, given us poor beleaguered bears some hope, but it's come full circle. Is it theoretically possible to below into negative numbers? I suppose not.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYHkFag19CI/AAAAAAAAALw/UzeQ13ONiRo/s400/1214-%24vix.jpg
Here's a closer look at the $VIX.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYHj5Kg19BI/AAAAAAAAALo/md3AbTkKCRI/s400/1214-%24vixcloseup.jpg
Finally, the $XMI was the earliest index I made a bullish call on (begrudgingly), and its super clean pattern continues. A burst up from a saucer, plain as day.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYHj0qg19AI/AAAAAAAAALg/wQocSnzw5mk/s400/1214-%24xmi.jpg
This is probably the first time I'm pointing out more "Buys" than "Shorts", but - - if you can't beat 'em, join 'em. I've got six ideas for you bulls out there. AKAM has been profoundly strong and is in new high territory:
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This is probably the first time I'm pointing out more "Buys" than "Shorts", but - - if you can't beat 'em, join 'em. I've got six ideas for you bulls out there. AKAM has been profoundly strong and is in new high territory:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYHiwqg18-I/AAAAAAAAALQ/5oE4w4lHWGg/s400/1214-buyakam.jpg
BZH, mentioned many times already, is worth a new look:
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYHipKg189I/AAAAAAAAALI/pmSdRyKRY1A/s400/1214-buybzh.jpg
CRVL has been superpowered by surging volume.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYHilKg188I/AAAAAAAAALA/5SU8g2vqPOU/s400/1214-buycrvl.jpg
PWAV seems to be turning the corner as well, after a long fall:
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PWAV seems to be turning the corner as well, after a long fall:
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYHigKg187I/AAAAAAAAAK4/7-YEp4waIxM/s400/1214-buypwav.jpg
Here's PXP:
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYHiaag186I/AAAAAAAAAKw/VHWCtR7kD-w/s400/1214-buypxp.jpg
And, finally, Redback (RBAK), mentioned many times. The volume is terrific, and this is up about 35% from when I first pointed it out.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYHiVKg185I/AAAAAAAAAKo/WCwCLEWj3sg/s400/1214-buyrbak.jpg
Now, for those insane enough to be bears (like me) until their dying breath, a few short charts. CTX:
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Now, for those insane enough to be bears (like me) until their dying breath, a few short charts. CTX:
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYHiP6g184I/AAAAAAAAAKg/Et5W-RsAgX4/s400/1214-ctx.jpg
John Deere (DE):
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYHhcKg183I/AAAAAAAAAKY/3cDPnNniDJs/s400/1214-de.jpg
Lehman Brothers (LEH) which, in spite of blowout earnings, actually fell on this +100 point (on the Dow) day.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYHhXqg182I/AAAAAAAAAKQ/8Bv00RCI5hM/s400/1214-leh.jpg
MEE, an energy short:
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYHhLag181I/AAAAAAAAAKI/PoBOppYrbY0/s400/1214-mee.jpg
I sure must have been a lot more fun to read in the summer when I was full of P&V. At this point, I'm just showing up, hat (and charts) in hand. Grumble. Being a bear really sucks.
at 12/14/2006 26 insightful comments
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Labels: new highs
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Wednesday, December 13, 2006The Sleeping Man Pattern
Looking at the past five or so days on the markets, this one in particular the S&P 500, I can see what we have here is a classic Sleeping Man Pattern.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYB1Cqg180I/AAAAAAAAAJ8/SJHMSNYeHlQ/s400/1213-sleepingman.jpg
Honestly, people. Today's action isn't worth my commentary. I hope something happens soon (preferably down), because this market is boring me to tears.
Sorry to trouble you that you checked in today. Doing a good post takes time, and I have nothing new to say.
at 12/13/2006 34 insightful comments
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Tuesday, December 12, 2006The Stalemate Continues.........
Twelve stinking points. That's all that got lopped off the Dow after the Fed announced no change in rates (as everyone expected) and that inflation was indeed still a concern.
The intraday chart below shows what happened. After a nice pre-announcement drop, people sort of clung to their chests until the announcement, at which time the market did its usually insane up-and-down which-way-is-up madness. Most of the day's earliest losses were wiped clean.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RX8oXhtai7I/AAAAAAAAAIw/5dQ7vv8PBn0/s400/1212-%24induintraday.jpg
I took a snapshot of $MSH earlier in the day since I thought it was worth considering as a short. Keep it on your radar screen.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RX8oThtai6I/AAAAAAAAAIo/vlMkhZ13lOg/s400/1212-%24msh.jpg
The $OEX is sporting a big ol' hanging man for today. These don't happen that often. Just try to find another one that's even close on this chart. These usually suggest tops. Of course, we're in a market where bad news is good news and good news is great news, right? So - - the hanging man will probably muscle the noose off his neck, jump to the gallows, and start twirling around with an exciting Up With People dance.
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The $OEX is sporting a big ol' hanging man for today. These don't happen that often. Just try to find another one that's even close on this chart. These usually suggest tops. Of course, we're in a market where bad news is good news and good news is great news, right? So - - the hanging man will probably muscle the noose off his neck, jump to the gallows, and start twirling around with an exciting Up With People dance.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RX8oQBtai5I/AAAAAAAAAIg/ocA2Tnb3f0o/s400/1212-%24oes.jpg
As I've mentioned, the Transports are the only really bearish index with us, and it continues to behave nicely. Thank you, Mr. Rail.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RX8oJRtai4I/AAAAAAAAAIY/rycU-bsBqhk/s400/1212-%24tran.jpg
Just to get an idea of the quagmire the market is in, look at the American Stock Exchange Major Market Index. Four days in a row of virtual carbon copies. Booooooooring!
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RX8oFxtai3I/AAAAAAAAAIQ/QuNyvJHcZh4/s400/1212-%24xmi.jpg
I haven't shown my positions in a while. I've trimmed this a lot from the days of holding eighty positions! I'm much more into cash now, as this market continues to idiotically lurch higher.
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Now - some individual stocks. Conoco (COP) seems to be a safe bet, as it is at the top of a well defined trading range. As always, though, upside breakouts can and do happen! So be careful.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RX8n-Rtai1I/AAAAAAAAAIA/Q6jhMeVWumU/s400/1212-cop.jpg
This one isn't a short or a long - just kind of a puzzler. One of the strongest stocks lately has been Campbells. That's right - soup. Consumer Defensive plays are all the rage, I guess. I guess I've been in the Silicon Valley too long. I find it curious how people can get all excited about someone who puts alphabet soup into a can and sells it for 79 cents.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RX8n6htai0I/AAAAAAAAAH4/AgFgHS2t4HE/s400/1212-cpb.jpg
Google (GOOG), one of my more speculative put positions, is weakening a touch. Using my employer's "three arrows" method, we can see here that we've got a triumvirate of down arrows.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RX8nyBtaizI/AAAAAAAAAHw/zYrK0uxEpzU/s400/1212-goog.jpg
Goldman Sachs is my favorite investment bank short right now.
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Goldman Sachs is my favorite investment bank short right now.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RX8nthtaiyI/AAAAAAAAAHo/S297wgCSroY/s400/1212-gs.jpg
Heinz is another one of those "huh?" stocks, like Campbells. Ketchup. I guess it's all the rage.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RX8npBtaixI/AAAAAAAAAHg/jDDlm-w8AGo/s400/1212-hnz.jpg
MDC has retraced to its neckline nicely. I don't love this enough to make a position out of it, but it's well worth considering.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RX8nixtaiwI/AAAAAAAAAHY/igYYMaXsrfs/s400/1212-mdc.jpg
Merrill Lynch is a sky-high pattern which I've also secured as a short position.
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Merrill Lynch is a sky-high pattern which I've also secured as a short position.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RX8nehtaivI/AAAAAAAAAHQ/GEcHF8pijBs/s400/1212-mer.jpg
Meritage (MTH), mentioned here many times in the history of this blog, has also retraced to its neckline.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RX8nLxtaiuI/AAAAAAAAAHI/We-Anq6idxI/s400/1212-mth.jpg
I have not touched OIH for a while. I had a great time with it during the summer. It seems to be at a real stalemate right now. We're all just watching it for a breakout in either direction. I am guessing down. Surprised?
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RX8nGhtaitI/AAAAAAAAAHA/zADce6pKCc8/s400/1212-oih.jpg
Fred Hickey is one of the few gurus I really enjoy reading. He had
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http://bbs.macd.cn/attachments.php?aid=1690308&noupdate=yes&3
塔林飞僧
sells at less than one times sales. Fred's calm assessment: Research in Motion's "valuation is certifiably insane!"
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RX8nAxtaisI/AAAAAAAAAG4/eKQOuiJ2WmQ/s400/1212-rimm.jpg
Lastly, Tesaro (TSO).
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RX8m3RtairI/AAAAAAAAAGw/7pCZIfXM-VE/s400/1212-tso.jpg
On what can we pin our dreams next? Crappy retail sales? That's tomorrow morning. Hope springs eternal in the bearish breast!
at 12/12/2006 12 insightful comments
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Labels: $msh, $oex, $tran, $xmi, copper, cpb, fed announcement, goog, gs, hnz, mdc, mer, mth, oih, rimm, tso
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