一个有关主宰时间因子探索的故事

肥叉烧

在股市混真不容易啊！

xingjw

xingjw 发表于 2014-7-1 15:14
Now I am also going to assume that you are pretty well frustrated and disappointed in the master tim ...

1939年江恩先生发表了《在亏损之前学习或为什么你会在股市亏钱》。这本小册子是唯一一本可以找到主宰时间因子线索的地方，他是江恩本人为自己课程写的宣传手册，是理解江恩理论形成过程极有价值的历史背景资料，值得仔细的品味和研究。由于它非常得重要，我们将会在后续的帖子里给出详细的讲解和分析。

关于提到的这本小册子，目前网上已经可以买到英文版和中文版，我只是提供一些我认为最重要的部分加以整理和翻译。

xingjw

"The Ticker and Investment Digest"--- December of 1909
(later became the Wall Street Journal)
《股票行情与投资文摘》

William D. Gann--威廉.D.江恩
An Operator Whose Science and Ability Place Him in the Front Rank—His Remarkable Predictions and Trading Records
一位在科学和能力方面名列前茅的交易者——他卓越的预测和交易记录

Sometime ago the attention of this magazine was attracted by certain long pull Stock Market predictions which were being made by William D. Gann. In a large number of cases Mr. Gann gave us, in advance, the exact points at which certain stocks and commodities would sell, together with prices close to the then prevailing figures which would not be touched.  
不久前，威廉.D.江恩的一些长期股市预测吸引了本杂志的注意力。大多数情况下，江恩先生会事先给我们某些股票或商品期货品种将要到达的确切点位，还有当时一些市场并不会触及的主流价位。

For instance, when the New York Central was 131 he predicted that it would sell at 145 before 129. So repeatedly did his figures prove to be accurate, and so different did his work appear from that of any expert whose methods we had examined, that we set about to investigate Mr. Gann and his way of figuring out these predictions, as well as the particular use which he was making of them in the market.  
例如：当纽约中央公司的股票在131时，他预测这只股票在跌到129之前会先上涨到145。他的数字一再证明准确无误，而且他的方法与我们测试过的任何专家的方法截然不同。因此我们开始研究江恩先生、弄清楚他做出这些预测的方法，以及它们在市场中的特殊用途。

The results of this investigation are remarkable in many ways.  
这个调查的结果在许多方面都显示了不同寻常的结果。

xingjw

It appears to be a fact Mr. W; D. Gann has developed an entirely new idea as to the principles governing stock market movements. He bases his operations upon certain natural laws which, though existing since the world began, have only in recent years been subjected to the will of man and added to the list of so-called modern discoveries.  
对于控制股票市场的原理，看来江恩先生已经发展出了一套全新的市场理念。他的交易基于某些自然法则，尽管这些法则自创世以来就存在，但人类仅在近几年才认识到，并且把它们列入了现代发现的行列。

We have asked Mr. Gann for an outline of his work, and have secured some remarkable evidence as to the results obtained there from. We submit this in full recognition of the fact that in Wall Street a man with a new idea, an idea which violates the traditions and encourages a scientific view of the Proposition, is not usually welcomed by the majority, for the reason that he stimulates thought and research. These activities the said majority abhors.  
我们曾经要求江恩先生描述一下他的研究，对于由此得到的结果获得了一些引人注目的证据。我们完全赞同这一事实：在华尔街，一位拥有与传统相悖的新观念和科学视角的人通常不会受到多数人的欢迎,因为他激发了思维和研究。多数人对此深恶痛绝。

W. D. Gann's description of his experience and methods is given herewith. It should be read with recognition of the established fact that Mr. Gann's predictions have proved correct in a large majority of instances.  
本文附上了江恩先生对自己的经验和方法的论述，而且在阅读的同时，你就会意识到，在大多数情况下，江恩先生的预测准确无误。

xingjw

"For the past ten years I have devoted my entire time and attention to the speculative markets. Like many others, I lost thousands of dollars and experienced the usual ups and downs incidental to the novice who enters the market without preparatory knowledge of the subject."  
“在过去的10年中，我在投机市场投入了所有的时间和精力。和其他人一样，我亏损过成千上万美元的金钱，并且经历了对此没有知识准备而入市的新手通常会遇到的大起大落。”

"I soon began to realize that all successful men, whether Lawyers, Doctors or Scientists, devoted years of time to the study and investigation of their particular pursuit or profession before attempting to make any money out of it."
“不久我就开始意识到，无论是律师、医生还是科学家，所有成功人士在试图赚钱之前，都要在他们孜孜以求的行业投入多年的时间学习和研究。”

"Being in the Brokerage business myself and handling large accounts, I had opportunities seldom afforded the ordinary man for studying the cause of success and failure in the speculations of others. I found that over ninety percent of the traders who go into the market without knowledge or study usually lose in the end."  
“一般人并不具备这样的条件，在管理我的经纪业务和大量的客户时，我有机会研究其他投机者成功和失败的原因。我发现，没有任何知识或研究就进入市场的交易者，最终90%以上会亏损。”

"I soon began to note the periodical recurrence of the rise and fall in stocks and commodities. This led me to conclude that natural law was the basis of market movements. I then decided to devote ten years of my life to the study of natural law as applicable to the speculative markets and to devote my best energies toward making speculation a profitable profession. After exhaustive researches and investigations of the known sciences, I discovered that the law of vibration enabled me to accurately determine the exact points at which stocks or commodities should rise and fall within a given time."   
“我很快就注意到了股票和期货市场中涨涨跌跌的周期性循环，从而推断出自然法则是市场运动的基础。我随即决定花费10年的时间研究应用于投机市场的自然法则，并且全神贯注于使投机成为有利可图的职业。在对已知的科学知识进行了详尽的调查研究之后，我发现波动法则能使我精确地确定股票或商品期货在特定的时间上涨和下跌到的确切点位。"

xingjw

The working out of this law determines the cause and predicts the effect long before the street is aware of either. Most speculators can testify to the fact that it is looking at the effect and ignoring the cause that has produced their losses.  
远在华尔街意识到之前，即可用这个法则确定成因并且预见到结果。大多数投机者都可以证实，只注重结果却忽视了成因造成了他们的亏损。”

"It is impossible here to give an adequate idea of the law of vibrations as I apply it to the markets. However, the layman may be able to grasp some of the principles when I state that the law of vibration is the fundamental law upon which wireless telegraphy, wireless telephone and phonographs are based. Without the existence of this law the above inventions would have been impossible."
“在此，恕我无法提供运用于市场中的波动法则的完整观念，不过，如果我说波动法则是无线电报、无线电话和留声机的基本法则时，门外汉或许也能抓住某些要点。没有波动法则，上述发明也是不可能的。”

"In order to test the efficiency of my idea I have not only put in years of labour in the regular way, but I spent nine months working night and day in the Astor Library in New York and in the British Museum of London, going over the records of stock transactions as far back as 1820. I have incidentally examined the manipulations of Jay Gould, Daniel Drew, Commodore Vanderbilt & all other important manipulators from that time to the present day. I have examined every quotation of Union Pacific prior to & from the time of E. H. Harriman, Mr. Harriman's was the most masterly. The figures show that, whether unconsciously or not, Mr. Harriman worked strictly in accordance with natural law."  
为了验证自己的想法，我不但以常规的研究方式埋头苦干了多年，还在纽约的阿斯特图书馆和伦敦的大英博物馆花费了9个月的日日夜夜，查阅了远至1820年的股票交易历史数据。我还顺便研究了杰伊.古尔德、丹尼尔.朱、康们多尔.范德尔贝尔特以及从那时到现在的华尔街所有重要交易者的操作方法。我研究了联合太平洋在被E.H.哈里曼操纵前后的所有报价，可以这样说，在华尔街历史上的所有操作中，哈里曼先生最高明。数据表明，无论是有意还是无意，哈里曼先生严格按照自然法则交易。”

xingjw

"In going over the history of markets and the great mass of related statistics, it soon becomes apparent that certain laws govern the changes and variations in the value of stocks, and that there exists a periodic or cyclic law which is at the back of all these movements. Observation has shown that there are regular periods of intense activity on the Exchange followed by periods of inactivity."   
“在回顾市场的历史记录和大量相关的统计资料时，我们很快就会发现，特定的法则控制着股票的变化和波动，并且在所有这些运动的背后存在着周期性或循环法则。仔细观察这些数据表明，市场交易中存在着规则性周期的活跃期，随后是沉寂期。”

Mr. Henry Hall in his recent book devoted much space to "Cycles of Prosperity and Depression," which he found recurring at regular intervals of time. The law which I have applied will not only give these long cycles or swings, but the daily and even hourly movements of stocks. By knowing the exact vibration of each individual stock I am able to determine at what point each will receive support and at what point the greatest resistance is to be met.  
亨利.豪先生在他的新书中以大量的篇幅论述了他发现的‘繁荣和萧条循环’，这些循环以规则性的时间间隔重现。我应用的这个法则不但提供了这些长期循环或摆动，而且还有每日甚至是每小时的股票运动。知道了每只个股的精确波动，我就能确定它在什么点位会受到支撑，在什么点位会遇到阻力。

xingjw

"Those in close touch with the market have noticed the phenomena of ebb and flow, or rise and fall, in the value of stocks. At certain times a stock will become intensely active, large transactions being made in it; at other times this same stock will become practically stationary or inactive with a very small volume of sales. I have found that the law of vibration governs and controls these conditions. I have also found that certain phases of this law govern the rise in a stock and an entirely different rule operates on the decline." (remark: the environment built under the law of vibration is like an organic living thing)   
“那些密切接触市场的人们已经注意到了股票价格中的潮涨潮落或涨跌现象。有时候股票会变得极其活跃，市场会产生巨大的成交量；有时候这只股票却会伴随着极小的成交量归于沉寂或呆滞。我发现，波动法则支配并控制着这些现象；我还发现，这个法则的某些阶段支配着股票的上涨，而一种截然不同的规则却控制着下跌。”

"While Union Pacific and other railroad stocks which made their high prices in August were declining, United States Steel Common was steadily advancing. The law of vibration was at work, sending a particular stock on the upward trend whilst others were trending downward."
“在8月份形成了最高价的联合太平洋和其他铁路股正在下跌的同时，美国钢铁却在稳步上涨。波动法则在发挥作用，它使特定的股票处于上升趋势，而另一些股票却在下跌。”

"I have found that the stock itself exists its harmonic or inharmonious relationship to the driving power or force behind it. The secret of all its activity is therefore apparent. By my method I can determine the vibration of each stock and also, by taking certain time values into consideration, I can, in the majority of cases, tell exactly what the stock will do under given conditions."
“我发现股票与它背后的驱动力之间存在着和谐或不和谐的关系。因此股票行为的所有秘密也就显而易见。我的方法能确定每只股票的波动，而且通过考虑某些时间值，我能在大多数情况下准确地说出在给定条件下股票的表现。”

xingjw

"The power to determine the trend of the market is due to my knowledge of the characteristics of each individual stock and a certain grouping of different stocks under their proper rates of vibration. Stocks are like electrons, atoms and molecules, which hold persistently to their own individuality in response to the fundamental law of vibration. Science teaches that 'an original impulse of any kind finally resolves itself into a periodic or rhythmical motion; also, just as the pendulum returns again in its swing, just as the moon returns in its orbit, just as the advancing year over brings the rose of spring, so do the properties of the elements periodically recur as the weight of the atoms rises."   
“确定市场趋势的能力，归因于我了解每只个股和某些股票群体在合适的波动率( proper rates of vibration)下的特性这一知识。股票就像原子、电子和分子，稳固地保持着与基本的波动法则相应的个性。科学告诉我们，‘任何原始的推动最终会变成周期性的或有节奏的运动。就像钟摆的往复运动；就像月亮的阴晴圆缺；就像四季流转总会在来年带来春天的 玫瑰……同样，随着原子量的增加元素的性质也会周期性地再现。”

"From my extensive investigations, studies and applied tests, I find that not only do the various stocks vibrate, but that the driving forces controlling the stocks are also in a state of vibration. These vibratory forces can only be known by the movements they generate on the stocks and their values in the market. Since all great swings or movements of the market are cyclic, they act in accordance with periodic law."

“我从广泛的调查研究和应用测试中发现，不但各种股票在波动，而且控制股票的驱动力量也处于波动状态。这些波动力量只能通过它们在股票上产生的运动和在市场中的数值来了解。由于市场的大摆动或大运动是循环的，所以它们按照周期性法则行动。”

(remark: This has to be fulfilled through the checking procedure to identify where the cycle is located at by using the law of vibration itself. The varying character of vibratory forces also confirms that the environment composed under the law of vibration is just like an organic living thing)  

xingjw

"Science has laid down the principle that the properties of an element are a periodic function of its atomic weight. A famous scientist has stated that 'we are brought to the conviction that diversity in phenomenal nature in its different kingdoms is most intimately associated with numerical relationship. The numbers are not intermixed accidentally but are subject to regular periodicity. The changes and developments are seen to be in many cases as somewhat odd."   
“科学已经得出这样一个原理：‘元素的性质是其原子量的周期函数’。一位著名的科学家声称：‘我们深信，奇妙的自然在不同领域的差异性与数字密切相关。这些数字并非混杂、混沌和随机的，而是受制于有规律的周期。在许多情况下，发展变化也可以看作是波动的。’

Thus, I affirm every class of phenomena, whether in nature or on the stock market, must be subject to the universal law of causation and harmony. Every effect must have an adequate cause.  
“因此，我坚信，无论是自然界还是股票市场中的每一种现象，都必定受制于因果与和谐的普遍法则。每个结果必定有一恰当的原因。”

"If we wish to avert failure in speculation we must deal with causes. Everything in existence is based on exact proportion and perfect relationship. There is no chance in nature, because mathematical principles of the highest order lie at the foundation of all things. (remark: don't count on chance in stock market, but depend on  the mathematical law) Faraday said, "There is nothing in the universe but mathematical points of force."  
“要想避免投机失败，我们必须涉及原因。万事万物都是基于确切的比例和精确的关系。自然界不存在偶然，因为最高级别的数学原理构成了万物的基础。法拉第曾经说过：宇宙中并无他物，只有力的数学点。”

"Vibration is fundamental: nothing is exempt from this law. It is universal, therefore applicable to every class of phenomena on the globe."  
波动是最根本的，万物概莫能外；它是普适的，因此适用于世界上的每一种现象。

xingjw

Through the law of vibration every stock in the market moves in its own distinctive sphere of activities, as to intensity, volume and direction; all the essential qualities of its evolution are characterized in its own rate of vibration.
通过波动法则，市场中的每一只股票都在其自身特有的活动范围内运动。以至于强度、成交量和方向，所有发展变化的本质特征全都在于它自身的波动率。
(remark: The rate of vibration is the proper result produced from the checking procedure in using the law of vibration to identify where the cycle is located at through the applicable past vibration)

Stocks, like atoms, are really centers of energy; therefore, they are controlled mathematically. Stocks create their own field of action and power: power to attract and repel, which principle explains why certain stocks at times lead the market and 'turn dead' at other times. Thus, to speculate scientifically it is absolutely necessary to follow natural law.
就像原子一样，股票是真正的能量中心，因此，它们受数学的控制。股票产生了它们自身的活动领域和力量：吸引和排斥的力量，这个原理解释了为什么某些股票有时候是市场的领头羊，有时候却成了“死亡之股”。因此，要想科学地投机就必须遵守自然法则。

"After years of patient study I have proven to my entire satisfaction, as well as demonstrated to others, that vibration explains every possible phase and condition of the market."  
在多年的潜心研究之后，我已经完全满意地向自己和他人证明了，波动法则解释了所有的市场阶段和市场状况。

xingjw

In order to substantiate Mr. W. D. Gann's claims as to what he has been able to do under his method, we called upon Mr. William E. Gilley, an Inspector of Imports, 16 Beaver Street, New York. Mr. Gilley is well known in the downtown district. He himself has studied stock market movements for twenty-five years, during which time he has examined every piece of market literature that has been issued & procurable in Wall Street. It was he who encouraged Mr. Gann to study the scientific and mathematical possibilities of the subject. When asked what had been the most impressive of Mr. Gann's work and predictions, he replied as follows:
为了证实江恩先生所声称的用这个方法达到的效果，我们拜访了威廉.E.吉利先生，他是一位进口检查员，住在纽约市比弗大街16号，是市中心的知名人物。他研究股市运动已经25年了，在这期间他检验了发行过的和在华尔街能得到的每一份市场资料。正是他鼓励江恩先生研究市场中潜在的科学和数学方法。在问及他对江恩先生印象最深刻的研究和预测时，他做了如下答复：

"It is very difficult for me to remember all the predictions and operations of W. D. Gann which may be classed as phenomenal, but the following are a few. "In 1908 when the Union Pacific was 168-1/8, he told me it would not touch 169 before it had a good break. We sold it short all the way down to 152-5/8, covering on the weak spots and putting it out again on the rallies, securing twenty-three points profit out of an eighteen-point market wave."
对我来说，很难记住江恩先生所有的惊人预测和交易，下面仅是几个例子：1908年，联合太平洋公司的股价在168-1/8美元时，他对我说，在充分调整前这只股票不会上摸到169美元。我们一路向下做空，一直到152-5/8美元，在走势极弱时回补空单并在反弹时做多，在一轮18点的行情中赚到了23点的利润。

"He came to me when United States Steel was selling around 50, and said, "This steel will run up to 58 but it will not sell at 59. From there it should break 16 points." We sold it short around 58 with a stop at 59. The highest it went was 58. From there it declined to 41-17 points."
当美国钢铁的股价在50美元时，他来告诉我：“这只钢铁股会上涨到58美元，但不会涨到59美元。从58美元开始，会向下调整16-3/4点。”我们以 59美元为止损在58-3/8美元左右做空，结果它最高到过58-3/4美元，随后跌到了41-1/4美元——跌了17-1/2点。

xingjw

"At another time, wheat was selling at about 89¢. Gann predicted that the May option would sell at $1.35. We bought it and made large profits on the way up. It actually touched $1.35."  
还有一次，那时小麦大约在89美分交易，他预测5月小麦合约会上涨到1.35美元。我们买入了5月小麦合约，并在一路上涨中赚取了大量利润，结果5月小麦确实上涨到了1.35-1/2美元。

"When Union Pacific was 172, he said it would go to 184-7/8 but not an eighth higher until it had a good break. It went to 184-7/8 and came back from there eight or nine times. We sold it short repeatedly, with a stop at 185, and were never caught. It eventually came back to 17."  
当联合太平洋股票在172美元交易时，他说这只股票会上涨到184-7/8美元，但在没有充分调整之前不会上涨到185美元。这只股票果然上涨到了 184-7/8美元，在这个价位反复了八九次。我们以185美元的止损反复在这个价位做空，而且市场从未触发这个止损。这只股票最终跌到了172-1/2 美元。

"Mr. Gann's calculations are based on natural law. I have followed Gann and his work closely for years. I know that he has a firm grasp of the basic principles which govern stock market movements, and I do not believe any other man can duplicate the idea or his method at the present time." (remark: I have caught Gann's spirit of the law of vibration and take it further into the step where the principle of image conversion in camera and magnification phenomenon in speaker is applied and the compound effect of both mathematic（mathematic） vibration and geometric vibration is also solved.)  
江恩先生的计算基于自然法则。我已经密切跟踪他的研究许多年了。我知道，他牢牢把握住了控制股市运动的基本原理，而且我相信目前世人还无法复制他的市场观念和交易方法。

"Early this year, he figured that the top of the advance would fall on a certain day in August and calculated the prices at which the Dow Jones Averages would then stand. The market culminated on the exact day and within four-tenths of one percent of the figures predicted."  
今年初，他预计上涨行情的顶部会落在8月份的某一天，并且计算出了那时道琼斯平均指数会到达的点位。市场果然在那一天见顶，而且与预测的点位仅相差0.4%。

xingjw

"You and W D Gann must have cleaned up considerable money on all these operations," was suggested.  “你和江恩先生一定在这些交易中赚了大钱，”我们表示。

"Yes, we have made a great deal of money. Gann has taken half-million dollars out of the market in the past few years. I once saw him take $130, and in less than one month run it up to over $12,000. Gann can compound money faster than any man I have ever met."  
是的，我们赚了不少钱。在过去的几年里，他从市场中赚了50万美元。有一次我看到他用130美元，在不到一个月的时间里就翻到了12000美元。我从没遇到过赚钱比他快的人。

"One of the most astonishing calculations made by Mr. Gann was during last summer [1909] when he predicted that September Wheat would sell at $1.20. This meant that it must touch that figure before the end of the month of September. At twelve o'clock, Chicago time, on September 30th (the last day) the option was selling below $1.08, and it looked as though his prediction would not be fulfilled. Mr. Gann said, 'If it does not touch $1.20 by the close of the market it will prove that there is something wrong with my whole method of calculation. I do not care what the price is now, it must go there.' It is common history that September Wheat surprised the whole country by selling at $1.20 and no higher in the very last hour of trading, closing at that figure."  
江恩先生最令人震惊的预测之一发生在去年夏天（1909年），当时他预测9月小麦将会到达1.20美元。这意味着9月小麦必须在9月份结束前触及这个价 位。9月30日（9月小麦的最后一个交易日），芝加哥时间12点钟时，9月小麦还在1.08美元之下交易，看起来似乎他的预测要落空。江恩先生说：“如果 9月小麦在收盘前到不了1.20美元，就证明我的整个预测方法都有问题。我不在乎现在的价格，它一定会到达那个价位。”众所周知，9月小麦令全国震惊，它 在最后一小时里到达了1.20美元，再也没有出现更高的价格，而且收盘于这个价位。

xingjw

So much for what W D Gann has said and done as evidenced by himself & others. Now as to what demonstrations have taken place before our representative :
这就是江恩先生本人的谈话和别人可以证明的交易。下面是我们这次访谈前江恩先生的实战表现：

During the month of October, 1909, in twenty-five market days, W D Gann made, in the presence of our representative, two hundred and eighty-six transactions in various stocks, on both the long and short side of the market. Two hundred and sixty-four of these transactions resulted in profits ; twenty-two in losses.  
1909年10月期间，在我们的代表在场的情况下，江恩先生在25个交易日里既做多又做空，对各种股票做了286笔交易。这些交易有264笔获利，24笔亏损。

The capital with which he operated was doubled ten times, so that at the end of the month he had one thousand percent of his original margin.  
他操作的资金翻了10番，因此，月底他的资金已经是开始时的1000%。

In our presence Mr. William D. Gann sold Steel common short at 94-7/8, saying that it would not go to 95. It did not.
在我们在场的情况下，江恩先生于94-7/8做空美国钢铁普通股，他说这只股票不会涨到95。果然如此。

On a drive which occurred during the week ending October 29, Mr. Gann bought U.S. Steel common stock at 86-1/4, saying that it would not go to 86. The lowest it sold was 86-1/3.  
还有一个实例发生在10月29日结束的那周，江恩先生在86-1/4买入了美国钢铁普通股，他说这只股票不会跌到86，结果最低价是86-1/8。

We have seen gann give in one day sixteen successive orders in the same stock, eight of which turned out to be at either the top or the bottom eighth of that particular swing. The above we can positively verify.
我们曾经看到过他对同一只股票一天里成功地交易了16次，结果其中有8次不是在顶部就是在底部。上述事实我们确认无误。

xingjw

Such performances as these, coupled with the foregoing, are probably unparalleled in the history of the Street.  
江恩先生诸如此类的表现和上述事迹在华尔街的历史上大概是空前绝后的。

James R. Koene has said, "The man who is right six times out of ten will make a fortune." Gann is a trader who, without any attempt to make a showing, for he did not know the results were to be published, established a record of over ninety-two percent profitable trades.  
詹姆斯.R.基恩曾经说过：“10次有6次正确的人就能发大财。”眼前就有一位交易者，他没有一点作秀的意思（因为他不知道结果会公开出版），他创造了超过92%的盈利记录。

Mr. W. D. Gann has refused to disclose his method at any price, but to those scientifically inclined he has unquestionably added to the stock of Wall Street knowledge and pointed out infinite possibilities.  
江恩先生拒绝以任何代价透漏他的交易方法，但对于那些有科学倾向的人士而言，他无疑扩展了华尔街的股市知识，并且指出了股市无限的可能性。

We have requested Mr. Gann to figure out for the readers of the Ticker a few of the most striking indications which appear in his calculations. In presenting these we wish it understood that no man, in or out of Wall Street, is infallible.
我们请求江恩先生为《股票行情与投资文摘》的读者透漏几个他预测中最引人注目的计算。在公布这些计算的同时，我们希望大家明白，在华尔街内外，没有人永远正确。

xingjw

William D Gann's figures at present indicate that the trend of the stock market should, barring the usual rallies, be toward the lower prices until March or April 1910.  He calculates that May Wheat, which is now selling at $1.02, should not sell below 99¢, and should sell at $1.45 next spring.
江恩先生目前的计算表明，除了正常的反弹，股市趋势将会一直下跌到1910年3月或4月份。他预计5月小麦——目前在1.02美元交易——不会跌到99美分之下，明年春天将会到达1.45美元。

On Cotton, which is now at about 15¢ level, he estimates that after a good reaction from these prices the commodity should reach 18¢ in the spring of 1910. He looks for a corner in the March or May option.  
目前，棉花的价格在15美分左右，他预计，在经过充分的调整之后，这个品种的价格将在1910年春天到达18美分。他想垄断3月或5月合约。

Whether these figures prove correct or not will  in no way detract from the record which W. D.
Gann has already established.  
无论这些数字准确与否，都无损于江恩先生已经创下的记录。

xingjw

William Delbert Gann was born in Lufkin, Texas, and is thirty-one years of age. He is a gifted mathematician, has an extraordinary memory for figures, and is an expert Tape Reader. Take away his science and he would beat the market on his intuitive tape reading alone.  
江恩先生出生于德克萨斯州的卢浮金，现年31岁。他是一位天才的数学家，对数字有着非凡的记忆力，还是一位解读市场行情的行家。即便抛开科学，他也能仅凭对行情的直觉击败市场。

Endowed as he is with such qualities, we have no hesitation in predicting that, within a comparatively few years, William D. Gann will receive recognition as one of Wall Street's leading operators.  
我们毫不怀疑，凭借如此出众的能力，用不了几年W.D.江恩就会以华尔街领军人物之一的身份广受赞誉。

Note: Since the market forecast was made, Coffee has suffered the expected decline, the extreme break having been 120 points. The lowest on the May wheat thus far has been $1.01-5/8. It is now selling at $1.06-1/4.
注：自作出上述预测以来，棉花经历了预料中的下跌，最大下跌了120点。迄今为止，5月小麦的最低价是1.01-5/8美元，目前它在1.06-1/4美元交易。

xingjw

W. D.江恩先生交易方法的获利记录

许多人都心存疑问：“如果江恩先生能准确的预测市场，他为什么还要撰写市场通讯出售服务呢？”他以前回答过这个问题，他在提供知识帮助那些需要帮助的人时找到了乐趣，金钱并非生活的一切。

下面我们公布江恩过去3年的交易记录，这些资料来自经纪人报告。这些资料证明，他的确能用自己的规则和方法获利。在你购买某人的市场通讯或教学课程之前，最好先获得他之前的实战交易记录，如果他根据他自己的投资建议都无法获利，你为什么要购买并相信它们并且使自己的资金冒险呢？

xingjw

W. D.江恩的交易记录——1933年

1933年从8月1日到12月31日：

交易笔数——135笔，其中112笔获利，23笔亏损。
交易笔数的准确率………………………………………………………………………..        83%
盈亏比………………………………………………………………………………………....        89.9%
1933年全年的交易笔数：479笔，其中422笔盈利，57笔亏损。
准确率………………………………………………………………………………….……...        88.1%
资金利润率…………………………………………………………………………...…...…        4000%或40:1