Sep 6, 2007 1:14pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar25165_1.gifmarketwavez
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Here's a look at the Gbp/Usd
---------------------------------
(Price Action )....... Chart
- Double click on chart to enlarge.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=47901&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1189902157
Last edited by marketwavez, Sep 6, 2007 1:35pm
Sep 6, 2007 8:06pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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GBPJPY
EW Chart Update
PS.
Sorry... I missed to attach the chart the first time.
Ok. might take out one short trade to lock in some profit.
just maybe.
EG
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=47929&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1189902236
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#561
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mrloba
Msian EW member
Member Since Jun 2006
5 Posts
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This is my counting.
http://img206.imageshack.us/img206/3204/egnf0.jpg
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#562
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Sep 6, 2007 8:33pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar25165_1.gifmarketwavez
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mrloba http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
This is my counting.
http://img206.imageshack.us/img206/3204/egnf0.jpg
Hello mrbola
Can you just post your wave count here as an attachment
like every one else here is doing ?
i just went over to your forum : and it is written in a language other than English ,
So its difficult to Understand what is being said ..
Also these are so many threads in there
Which chart are you referring to ?
just post the exact chart here if it's possible
that way we don't have to go hunting on that forum
---------------------------------------------------------------
just upload your chart as an attachment
thanx alot
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#563
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Sep 6, 2007 8:38pm
mrloba
Msian EW member
Member Since Jun 2006
5 Posts
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Ok noted. That counting is just my opinion and not referring to anyones. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif Ok its Gbp/Jpy 4hrs charts sorry
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#564
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Sep 6, 2007 8:43pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar25165_1.gifmarketwavez
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mrloba http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Ok noted. That counting is just my opinion and not referring to anyones. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif Ok its Gbp/Jpy 4hrs charts sorry
Just post your chart here
You will get some feed back from others in here ...
--------------------------------------------------------
Your forum looks great by the way ....
It's just that its in another language other than English
so its difficult to read and respond ...
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#565
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Sep 6, 2007 8:44pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar25165_1.gifmarketwavez
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This Here is the Usd/Chf
-------------------------------
Close the Gap ?.............http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/confused.gif !
- Double click on chart to enlarge.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=47931&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1189902236
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#566
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Sep 7, 2007 8:49am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar25165_1.gifmarketwavez
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Quote:
Originally Posted by marketwavez http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
This Here is the Usd/Chf
-------------------------------
Close the Gap ?.............http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/confused.gif !
Jobs Report Effect -
A Recession is on it's way !..................... http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/surprise.gif!
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=48017&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1189902406
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#567
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Sep 8, 2007 8:45pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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Quote:
Originally Posted by el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
GBPJPY
Probable targets
229.34 Early TP
228.19 Midway
226.39 Max Potential
225.24 Very ambitious
ONLY FOR DEMO Purposes. Under Experiment/Testing
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
For the Bears who profited hugely last Friday, Congratulations.
I myself failed, instead I lost a lot of pips.
I was in 5 nice minilot positions in the morning and all were in Profit.
Left for the Day ( 9 hrs ) to do other things and have travelled 300km in and came back an hour before US open.
Saw my chart and the break to LOWER level than previous then bounce up again. At the bounce I thought I better grab remaining pip gains and re enter later because 30 minutes before the drop ( had I known it ) I was invited to dinner. So I decided to close and just re enter when I come back.
It was the craziest thing to do and the biggest BLUNDER I made. I had it all figured out in the morning and I closed all trades that night just because of 1 indicator which was on a higher timeframe than what I shuld have been observing. I completely forgot to check all other timeframes specially the lower ones.
This cost me to miss that great opportunity.
Worse is when I came back from dinner I saw the huge fall. Guess what I did....
I tried to trade against the trend hoping to catch pips on the retracement.
And that does not end my blunders.....
I placed multiple mini lot orders on what I thought were retracements. costing me huge losses.
This are classic examples of the WORST BLUNDERS a trader could ever make.
Trading against the trend and Placing Compounded/Multiple Positions against the trend (trying to profit on the retracement). What I should have done was place tardes for the main trend even as it was making its way on the retracement. That would have placed me in a better better position.
It was like digging my own grave.
I am posting this here to show newbies if ever there are any, and also to put it on record that I made this terrible mistakes.
Currently I am back to my original Cash position. It was like I got wiped out of earnings I made for almost 2 weeks.
I have decided to close all my positions now. Luckily my broker allows us to close our positions on a weekend. I kow there is still a potential that GBPJPY will retrace up and that I may still be able to recover my losses in existing 4 minilots ( had already closed 2 other minilots right after market closed on saturday morning for a big loss ) and maybe even gain a little. But I would be taking a further risk of losing just incase GBPJPY decides to pursue the Bear move down.
Here is my currrent analysis for this pair:
Riding and Surfing the Waves of GBPJPY. Below is what I think would be potential route of this pair as it glides down the chart based on what I understand from EW.
This has already retraced 34%. In high trending periods, mini wave 4 (which we are in right now), is sometimes expected to resume main trend once it hits the 23.6% retracement.
And looking at the 5min chart, it is possibble that it may still not have finished the corrective phase of this mini wave 4. So there is still that chance to go up some more for the retracement.
Now, Let us see where this is supposed to be expected to retrace to (boy am I glad it is a weekend now and market is quiet and I have time to digest and study my counts again ).
If this is mini wave 4, then it should not be higher than mini wave 1 which ends at 231.76 So I can put my SL 10 pips above this. I believe we are in a mni wave 4 inside a sub wave 3 of C53 down
Worst case scenario is that it goes up and will not go higher than 231.88 which is the C51 down. This is most unlikely because C53 down is still not finished. So I believe we are still in mini wave 4 up inside a C533 down.
Price Projections Using FIB Extention tool of MT4
MAIN
C4 = 0 235.50
C51 227.40
C52 235.49
Fib Projections
100.0 227.40
161.8 222.40 min C53
200.0 219.28
261.8 214.15 min C55
300.0 211.02 may still go lower to end the ABC down from 251.07
C53 Wave
C52 = 0 235.49
C531 231.88
C532 234.12
Fib Projections
61.8 231.90
100.0 230.52
161.8 228.31 min for C533. at its end or a little beyond towards 200%, expect retracement for C534.
200.0 226.93
261.8 224.72 min expected for C535 or end of C53
300.0 223.30 end of C535 or C53 will bring us back up to C54
C54 is expected to retrace 23.6 towards 61.8, though normally till 50% only of C53. However, it may go beyond 61.8% but max price can only be till C51 which is at 227.40 Often wave 4 retraces by 38.2% which is quite near now.
Another view I thought I would adopt was the C=A thing. However, C532 was already a zigzag sa I expect C534 to have sideways movement whose end will be Lower than C=A. Thos should strengthen my decision to close all trades before the Aussie opening.
From the end of C54 whose max potential height is at 227.40, we could see this fall again towards 214.15 or 211.02 and could still be beyods or lower.
Note that this route or track could take a few months to finish. But this is how i think this will workout till it finishes this wave C down.
We have to remember that corrective waves can sometimes take very long to finish. We have to remember that C52 was a sharp zigzag. So by rule of alternation... we have to expect W54 to be a sideways correction which could take 2-4 weeks to complete or maybe even more. Ranging market for this pair.
Ok. back to being an intraday trader...
I just checked my position now and saw price move 4 pips up. I have not yet close my positions .. but I think I will do that in a little while. (On second thought ..... that may have been what brokers pays me for interest on this Long trades which I believe is up to 104 pips for my forward trades allowed to stay on for 1 month giving me 104 pips for the duration. that would be around 4 pips per day on each position. ( This brings to mind that I should not have closed my position in the Saturday early morning. I should have earned the forward points or positive pips on Saturday and Sunday mornings.) I could earn that too every day onward till Oct 9. But Monday opening could see a big jump either way which could increase my recovery if it is a bull jump even temporarily, but could erase all forward points gained and incurr additional losses if it was the Bears who jumped.
So..... I hope this will get me and us ready for the coming week.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
PS.
After reviewing my post before I click the post button, I thought I saw an opportunity to protect my current open positions till it retraces back up towards 231.88 for the C54, ( but that would mean I had to carry this burden to 228.31 or up to 226.93
That would be a long drag. Good if my account can afford to hold that drawdown for so long. But even then, I think it is prudent to practice the rule of cutting losses early and doing better the next time.
So .. with this I am closing all my positions now....regardless of the possibility of price still moving up.
I will plan from where I stand right now and wait around Asian session to maybe scalp. But Frankfurt and London Open would be very interesting and more during the US session.
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Sep 8, 2007 9:33pm
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#568
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Sep 8, 2007 11:48pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mrloba http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
This is my counting.
http://img206.imageshack.us/img206/3204/egnf0.jpg
mrloba....
I was just reviewing your chart and I noticed that you have labelled it as an impulse wave down which is in 5 waves.
Do you see this as the Big Wave A down of a big corrective wave and not just and ABC Corrective wave down ? Afterwhich we should see price move back up for a Zigzag as Big Wave B up ?
Now you got me thingking there.....
Looking at your chart again..... and my chart too.... I see that GBPJPY has exceeded expectations for the Wave C end around the area of 230.59.
@ last low being 219.41 onmy chart... this is already a little over 161.8%. .... basically looking more like this is Wave 3 and followed by wave 4 up which made a retracement of around 62%.
then if this is Wave 5 going down....then we have finished Wave 51 and Wave 52. .... almost the same projections as I was using for a 5 wave down on this last leg.
But to Look at it over all... I then now have more reason to go back to 251.07 and use it as my starting point to project the end of this 5 part impulse wave down Big Wave A.
We should then be looking at
208.81 as minimum end of Wave 5 down
203 as possible ambitious end before it goes up for the Big Wave B.
Thanks mrloban for this awakeining to another possible (most likely ) scenario. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/thumbsup.gif
whew.....
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
PS
This would mean we get to 210 before 251 then before the year ends.
I am sending my early warmest congratulations to the winner of Auslanco's Trophy.
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Sep 9, 2007 1:06am
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#569
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Sep 11, 2007 2:16pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar25165_1.gifmarketwavez
Senior Member
Member Since Nov 2006
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Gbp/Usd -
//////////////////////////////////
Updated Longrer Term chart
-----------------------------------
- Double click on chart to enlarge.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=48723&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1189903573
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=48724&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1189903573
Sep 11, 2007 3:17pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar25165_1.gifmarketwavez
Senior Member
Member Since Nov 2006
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Here is another look at the Gbp/Usd
for Today's price Movement
--------------------------------------------
Elliott Waves is not an exact science
10 people looking at the same chart data
will not have the same wave-count
simply because we don't all see the world the same way.
------------------------------------------------------------
So in the end
Trading is about your Averages !
Trading is more importantly about your ability to manage risk
of individual trades that you decide to take no matter
what wave count you think is currently happening .
Concentrate your efforts on understanding Risk to Reward
- Not Wave counts ! ....Learn to keep those looses small !
---------------------------------------------------------
.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=48736&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1189903573
Sep 16, 2007 1:39am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY Bearish Scenario Option
Starting from the Monthly Chart
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=49558&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1189920987 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=49559&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1189921018 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=49560&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1189921018 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=49561&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1189921040
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=49562&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1189921114 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=49563&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1189921114
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#576
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Sep 16, 2007 1:42am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Bearish Scenario Option for GBPJPY - 1H to 15m
Bearish Scenario Option for GBPJPY - 1H to 15m
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=49564&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1189921255 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=49565&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1189921255 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=49566&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1189921272
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#577
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Sep 16, 2007 1:57am
ronnimar
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Member Since Dec 2006
7 Posts
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this is my weekly chart for the pair.
let's wait & see how it will unfold !?
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Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=49568&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1189922226
Sep 16, 2007 2:12am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Bullish GBPJPY Option
I could not re attach my chart to the Bullish Post earlier.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
PS. Thanks ronnimar for your weekly chart.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=49569&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1189923067 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=49570&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1189923067 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=49571&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1189923091 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=49572&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1189923091
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #579
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Sep 16, 2007 5:02am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPUSD
OK... Here is my current count on GBPUSD.
I started on the monthly to get an overview and to check potential Limitations on retracements.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=49585&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1189933951 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=49586&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1189933951 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=49587&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1189933973 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=49588&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1189933973
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=49589&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1189933988
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Sep 16, 2007 6:17am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar43693_2.gifal_yaqen
Member
Member Since Jul 2007
70 Posts
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hye Eg.
this is my counting for GJ H4. i choose bullish http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/big_grin.gif ehehe..
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=49596&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1189937811
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an evening on the bench ...
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Sep 16, 2007 7:56am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif EURUSD
Here is my EW Count attempt on EURUSD
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=49605&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1189943719 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=49606&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1189943719 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=49607&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1189943745 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=49608&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1189943745
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #588
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Sep 16, 2007 3:57pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPUSD Potential Tracks
A Potential Scenario on GBPUSD
Sub Wave 3 of Wave C down is probably developing.
Now @ 2.0066
Possibly retracing to 2.0168 area
Then Coming down to
2.002 FE 261.8
1.9949 FE300.0
Then expect retrace up for C4
2.0047 at least 23.6%
2.0104 most common 38.2%
But could still be higher towards 61.8%
Another point to consider is targetting C4 up towards the end point of sub wave 4 of C3 down which could be in the vicinity of 2.0168.
Textbook info provides that wave 4 ends towards the termination point of the subwave 4 of a prior wave 3.
But let us see how things turn out this week
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#589
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Sep 16, 2007 7:46pm
multiplatnum
Member
Member Since Jun 2007
2 Posts
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EG,
On Cable, Based on your scenario, do you still believe this is still a larger B wave (A was 1.9657 to 2.0367) and once complete it will head north in 5 waves for C (surpassing 2.0367)?
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#590
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Sep 16, 2007 7:52pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif A Test EW Count on GBPCHF
GBPCHF
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=49663&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1189986698 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=49665&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1189986698 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=49666&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1189986724 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=49667&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1189986724
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Sep 17, 2007 2:09am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar19886_1.gifafricanpip
just another tough day in Africa
Member Since Sep 2006
206 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Cable
Hi guys,
Had a great week-end especially watching S.A. hammer England in the world cup rugby...... then again in the T20 cricket..
To the charts.....I agree with EG we are in big C down of ABC (3.3.5). B really took its time going up last week and previous. but I think we have only seen wave 1 of larger C on the daily and I think we will see 275/300 for wave 2 before a big 3 down.
Kind regards.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=49699&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1190009297
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Sep 18, 2007 9:08pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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GBPUSD
Looks like the Wave 2 UP is working out. With the interest rate news this morning, this sure played out well with my count.
But quite disappointing is my GBPJPY count. I sure took a hit on this one.
I was doing well till yesterday's asian afternon or London morning.
Then I made a mistake of entering 2 short trades at intervals before the london Open. Left a Sell order at 230 too.
I was able to cancel my Limit Sell Order before the US Open Luckily. but I decided to increase the SL on my Existing Short orders expecting that if the rates are cut GBPJPY goes up bt will still come down again.
But then again with this pair, it can move 100 to almost 1000 pips in either direction before it will reverse again. So at 11m Asin timeI decided to close all trades at a loss and wait till asian time again to decide to trade or not.
Attached is the potential alternative counts for GBPJPY.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
PS. I know I have often said that EW can be used to trade without listening to the news. Well, I must admit now that with all the probabilities of alternative counts in the EW Theory, Fundamentals ( and that is NEWS ) surely does play a big Part as to the direction Price will take.
I am now thinking that I should reduce my trades at the very minimum when trading EW during important News specially if trading GBPJPY which is to volatile (Otherwise I will need to have more than a thousand pips SL just so I could either delay the brutal effect or allow it to recover)
But, probably the best is to stay out of the news as many seasoned traders do.
That would be more relaxing. There will always be opportunities to trade after the news when things settle down.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=50055&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1190163495
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EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#599
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Sep 19, 2007 1:15pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar43693_2.gifal_yaqen
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GbpJpy daily
Current situation in GbpJpy...
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=50201&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1190222134
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an evening on the bench ...
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#600
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Sep 19, 2007 11:35pm
el grande
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Thanks al yaqen for providing your GBPJPY Charts here.
We may not have the same counts , but it is good to be able to present EW Counts from various perspectives.
Based on my count from Daily to lower TFs, GBPJPY to me still could be either Bearish or Bullish in the longer term. It still has not broken above 235.50 to convince me it is Bullish and that is why I still can not be sure about its being Bearish from there.
I would be more Bearish biased though only because,
Wave 2 UP was moving side ways while what I considered as Wave 4 is a sharp Zigzag ( Rule of Alternation )
Then using Fibonacci Extention Tools, End of Wave 3 @ 219.31 falls between the 161.8 - 200% Level which fits projection for Wave 3.
Looking at the Andrews Pitchfork too, you will see that price has fallen below the Pitchforkmost likely leading to a further fall.
The Sideways movement from the end of my Wave 4 I would attribute now to a Wave 51 down and the wave 52 sideways movement.
Wave 52b is at 228.25 while the lowest on the right side is 228.20. If I can find a finished 5 part impulse wave on this one, then I can look at it as wave 531 while the spike Up due to the US Interest News could be considered as Wave 532. However, I still can not see the end of this 532 up to now.
So currently, I am trading both ways. Still have 2 opposing trades which are both on the negative side. may not necessarily leave me with positive pips in the end. But at least, losses will hopefully be less and still allow me to trade both ways for now.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
PS. Sorry I missed to attach the 1 hour chart
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=50276&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1190259162 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=50277&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1190259162 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=50278&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1190260065
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EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Sep 21, 2007 6:10pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Charts
Charts
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=50662&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1190412530 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=50663&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1190412530 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=50664&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1190412547 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=50668&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1190414837
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EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Sep 21, 2007 6:47pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #629
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Sep 21, 2007 9:37pm
el grande
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Member Since Nov 2006
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif The "CROWD MENTALITY"
Many (and that includes me) have been long anticipating the fall of GBPJPY in particular.
And yet ... up to now, this pair is sitting on a price range level that may still go either way for the Pair.
Based on the monthly chart I have Plotted, it sure looks like it will go down in the many years to come.
But as we focus in on the weekly, this pair is still Bullish for me. It is just that we are currently in a wave 4 corrective wave
As we go to the 4 hour chart, here is where I find myself walking the tight rope. Or maybe that is not the correct term to use. Let us just say Price is at a range where it is still not clear whether it goes up or down
Breaching the following levels will step by step confirm the Bullish direction of GBPJPY . 234.76, 235.50 and 237.60 will finally confirm the B wave UP. and that is a long way to go for a real confirmation.
While If price continues to encounter resistance at 234.76 and 235.50, then we have a greater chance of seeing a downward move to lower than 219.31 sooner than seeing levels of 251.
Now, why the title "CROWD MENTALITY".....
I just realized that I have been riding what I would say the crowd mentality because i have been looking forward each day to this pair's fall.
It is true that on the daily and 4 hour charts, we will see this pair fall in the whole wave 4 corrective wave structure. But wave 4 is a ranging sideways wave. so we will see it go up and down from 251 to probably lower than 219.
And currently we are still on a daily range which we could consider as a range without clear direction for the scale of 2-4 weeks.
Would it be correct to say that The Crowd Mentality is probably thinking of a Big wave 5 down in a Big wave A Down of a flat wave 4 sideways.??
If so, then I should focus more on maintaining the Bullish stance. The Bears may have to wait a little longer and see 251 level first before we see the end of this wave 4 at price levels lower than 219.31
So many are predicting that we will see the levels lower than 219.31 for this pair this year end. However, that time frame still allows this pair to go up to 251 again before it really goes down to lower than 219.31
And if it does go lower, the EW count for the Big wave C of this wave 4 sideways Flat must not enter downwards price territory of wave 1 up of this BIG BIG C wave UP @ 208.14.
So... is it correct to say that the crowd thinks this pair will see the lows of 219 before the high of 251 in the coming weeks?
If so, then I should get off the the Bear Ride to start drawing in some Profits.
Ok... enough of this ramblings
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
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EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#630
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Sep 22, 2007 12:02pm
s3padrian
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Here's my thinking. I don't do XYZ etc. I'm trying to learn Neely's system.
http://img503.imageshack.us/img503/1199/gbpjpywh6.gif
Thoughts:
Looks like a triangle is formed. It can break my triangle, but can't go past my resistance line above it. Then the wave down should be at least 75% of the longest wave. This should be wave 1 of 5, for the final leg. Then we should enter another long boring correction :-/. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
I threw this together in 20 minutes, but it's another view to the count http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
But note that if we are in a sub wave c UP in this Big Wave B, There has to be a complete 5 wave impulse division ending at either of the 3 levels I enumerated above.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gifAttached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=50844&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1190594819
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #632
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Sep 23, 2007 11:42pm
s3padrian
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373 Posts
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Have you ever heard of Neely El Grande? This is a lot of sidways action so sideways action is generally corrective. Trend is still down. There's a RARE possibility for a continuation of the correction, but we're in a combination correction with a flat to triangle.
I could be wrong since I've only started counting a month ago :-D
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#633
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Sep 24, 2007 12:25am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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Yes Adrian, I have come across Neely.
It is just that I have not immersed myself in his works yet.
Attached is the 15m chart which I posted last week (Friday I think) where I described that prie may range because of the possible wave 4 scenario in the wave c up of wave 532.
Somehow, it seems to be playing out as I expected.
Come Frankfurt and London session, we could then expect a rally to finish of the wave 5 in this wave 532 and hope to see the begininning of the wave 533 down
I think that is if we do not go higher than 235.50
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=50877&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1190607870
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EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Sep 24, 2007 5:50am
el grande
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GBPJPY
Ready for wave 5 up for the end of Wave C?
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=50921&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1190627410
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EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#639
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Sep 24, 2007 5:56am
el grande
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a closer view
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=50922&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1190627792
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EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#640
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Sep 24, 2007 6:41am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPUSD
Quote:
Originally Posted by el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Hi AP
2.0316 is the tops on my chart now. I think you got a very good entry there. I have not been trading GBPUSD for quite some time now. Have just been following it in the charts.
I just might get on it on the wave 2 retrace. IT is wave 31 for me now so looking for wave 32 retrace.
Have been focusing on GBPJPY these past weeks.
Happy Harvest.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
AP
Checking my chart 15m now.... I am looking at 2.0295 as a possible entry for my Short. That is a little over 61.8% retracement for the wave 32.
4hour stochastic is already overbought and looks ready to crossback thru the level 80.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#641
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Sep 24, 2007 7:55am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GPJPY
GBPJPY
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=50947&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1190634913
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#642
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Sep 24, 2007 9:27am
el grande
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY
How about a possibility of a truncated 5th wave?
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=50963&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1190640414
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Sep 24, 2007 6:23pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPUSD
Quote:
Originally Posted by africanpip http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Possibly....also see where it coincides with the trendline down, that point might be a good entry. also depends where the end of 3.1 is.
Hi AP.
MY Sell Limit Order @ 2.0296 was not hit while I slept.
Will Wait for a good entry and will just leave this Sell Limit Order but will lower it to 2.0285 for now.
I am attaching what I see as a potential scenario or this 1st Leg Down.
But first, a 5 wave impulse must be seen as completely formed lower than Yellow 54 for the wave 31 or the 1st leg of wave 3 down.
Then a retrace of at least 61.8% UP for the wave 32.
Then if indeed this is wave 3 down, by using the FIB Extention tool, my TP for wave 33 will be in the range of 2.0069 and 2.0018
Let us see how this unfolds during the Asian Session.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=51035&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1190672522
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #647
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Sep 24, 2007 6:37pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY
Up to know, Direction for me is still not clear for this pair.
Although it has dipped to 231.72 on my chart, that was still valid as a wave 4 retracement as it did not overlap with my wave 1 at 231.58
But if you check your charts, price now at 0631 in Asia, has encountered some resistance at 232.27 which is the monthly pivot and barely touched the 50 EMA with a long upper wicked Candlestick. On the 1hour chart, price met resistance at the 1hour 50EMA itself.
Stochastics at 15m chart is already overbought while the 30m and 1 hour have move out of over sold territory. However, 4h stochastics remain pointing down.
I remain Bearish on this pair while the 4 hour stochs is still pointing down together with the 5m and 15m.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Sep 24, 2007 7:18pm Reason: correction to overbought
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#648
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Sep 24, 2007 7:16pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY
If price goes lower than 231.58 then I think we either get a confirmation that we had a truncated 5th wave or the red label counting was correct.
Should it be that we already saw the Top at 233.67, then I have my bias to select the red counting over the truncated 5th wave.
This bias is based on time factor that a probable wave 4 took to unfold compared to wave 2.
SO to move on with this bias in analysis, attached chart would show that my current target for the end of the 1st leg is in the range of 231.07 - 230.71
If it goes lower than 231.88, there is a likelihood that it will fall further towards 230.47
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=51042&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1190675709
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#649
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Sep 24, 2007 8:41pm
el grande
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY Update
was having difficulty posting this chart earlier as it was unfolding.
now waiting for a 38.2% retrace Up to the 232.00 Level as minimum retracement.
but will still be watching how this correction will unfold.
Finally out at a profit in of the short trade I placed at 232 last Friday.
But still nursing a much lower short trade I placed Friday morning.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Finally attached it
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=51051&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1190680838
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#650
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Sep 24, 2007 9:14pm
s3padrian
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373 Posts
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so far my charts are playing out well
How's everyone else doing?
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#651
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Sep 24, 2007 9:18pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by s3padrian http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
so far my charts are playing out well
How's everyone else doing?
Glad to know you are doing well Adrian.
Mine is ok. I may have exited too early with 1 of my short trades. BUt that is ok. just waiting for a retrace. Other one is still being nursed from last week.
But, this pair seems to be going south so I will let that ride.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#652
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Sep 24, 2007 9:30pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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Quote:
Originally Posted by el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Hi AP.
MY Sell Limit Order @ 2.0296 was not hit while I slept.
Will Wait for a good entry and will just leave this Sell Limit Order but will lower it to 2.0285 for now.
I am attaching what I see as a potential scenario or this 1st Leg Down.
But first, a 5 wave impulse must be seen as completely formed lower than Yellow 54 for the wave 31 or the 1st leg of wave 3 down.
Then a retrace of at least 61.8% UP for the wave 32.
Then if indeed this is wave 3 down, by using the FIB Extention tool, my TP for wave 33 will be in the range of 2.0069 and 2.0018
Let us see how this unfolds during the Asian Session.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
GBPUSD
Retrace to 32 did not happen. But 33 seems to be very close now to 2.0069
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#653
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Sep 24, 2007 10:32pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY Update
update
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=51075&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1190687521
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#654
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Sep 25, 2007 12:28am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar19886_1.gifafricanpip
just another tough day in Africa
Member Since Sep 2006
206 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif daily
Quote:
Originally Posted by el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
GBPUSD
Retrace to 32 did not happen. But 33 seems to be very close now to 2.0069
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Hi EG,
On the the daily I am expecting support around the 2.0100 area and the end of C.3.1 it may coincide with housing news later. I will close my short there. We should see a retrace to around 220/250 for C.3.2.
Let's see what happens.
AP.
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Eish!
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#655
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Sep 25, 2007 1:06am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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Quote:
Originally Posted by africanpip http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Hi EG,
On the the daily I am expecting support around the 2.0100 area and the end of C.3.1 it may coincide with housing news later. I will close my short there. We should see a retrace to around 220/250 for C.3.2.
Let's see what happens.
AP.
2.0100 is my weekly pivot
2.0091 is my monthly pivot
1.9986 is the weekly support level 1
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#656
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Sep 25, 2007 2:58am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar19886_1.gifafricanpip
just another tough day in Africa
Member Since Sep 2006
206 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif closed
Quote:
Originally Posted by el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
2.0100 is my weekly pivot
2.0091 is my monthly pivot
1.9986 is the weekly support level 1
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
EG,
I closed at 100, now I will see how many pips I left on the table, but otherwise more than happy with performance of this trade. I will be out until after news, IF we are going to see wave 2 develop up it should be typical 2 behaviour so we need to watch for the signs, if all goes according to plan we should move back to 230 area.
Regards
AP
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#657
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Sep 25, 2007 4:03am
kenari05
Member
Member Since Jun 2006
294 Posts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
GBPUSD
Retrace to 32 did not happen. But 33 seems to be very close now to 2.0069
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
i disagree...i think now is completing wave A...then retrace up as wave B...normally 50% of wave A...then wave C... up to 161.8 from wave A
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#658
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Sep 25, 2007 2:43pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY
GBPJPY Count Revision _ over extended sub wave 3
4hour stochs is likey to re visit over sold levels
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
PS.
Count of wave 4 is invalidated if price goes higher than 232.37
In the meantimewatch the wave development in the 5m and 1m time frames if you want and relate to the 15m and 30m.
What worries me though is the Bullish engulfing candlestick on the 4hour chart and its crossing back up on the 4 our trendline Support which it just broke.....
This could also mean that wave 1 was finished and we are now on wave 2 UP retracement.4 hur stochs will continue to go up. we could also be seeing a sub wave b unfolding now and 4-8 hours later the end of sub wave c UP to finish off the wave 2 retracement towards 61.8 to 78.6% retracement from the 233.60 high and the 229.72 low
BUt I am sticking with my count but setting my SL at 232.38
I am going back to sleep. and wont leave any trade on for now. will watch during the asian session. I managed to get 98 pips when I placed a Long trade last night before I went to sleep after seeing what I initially thought was already wave 5 and my 4hour stochs with the rest of the lower TF Stochs turning up. (Maybe lucky huh?) then I woke up to see it start coming down again just in time.
edit / update I did enter a trade @ 230.95 and setting my SL at 231.40 to support a wave 4 count. this would be enough to risk while I sleep. got my 98 pips last . TP is @ 227.60. I am expecting wave 5 to over extend too at TP2 would be at 225.70
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=51279&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1190745714
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Sep 25, 2007 3:36pm Reason: UPDATE
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#659
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Sep 25, 2007 3:27pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY
Why I am biased that a Wave 4 has occurred...
I see an expanded wave 2 while this wave 4 is a sharp wave
if this is a sharp wave, then a 45% retracement of wave 3 is valid as wave 4 is from 23.6 to about 50% of wave 3 with some instances of up to 61.8% retracement for as long as it does not over lap with wave 1
for now the next higher peak of 231.37 is 1 pip lower than the 231.38.... This could be the sub wave 2 of the wave 5 down coming close to a 100% retracement of the sub wave 1.
just my thoughts before I go back to sleep here.
Happy harvest everyone
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=51290&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1190748433
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Sep 25, 2007 6:12pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY
Wave 2 Projection
as end of Wave C of a Zigzag Corrective wave
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=51322&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1190758290
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #662
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Sep 25, 2007 7:10pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY on a Different System
A different system which projects end of sub wave c of wave 2 to be towards 100% retracement is shown below.
Still FIB Extention tool was used plus the FIB Retracement tool and a 12345 Triangulation method.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=51332&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1190761810
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#663
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Sep 25, 2007 7:16pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY Chart Enhanced
Enhanced
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=51335&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1190762173
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#664
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Sep 25, 2007 9:55pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY
Bounced off the 50EMA
Attached charts show revised counting.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=51363&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1190771743 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=51364&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1190771743
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Sep 26, 2007 4:05am
rnl16616
Member
Member Since Aug 2007
23 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon6.gif Still have two EW cable counts...
GBPUSD - I still have two alternate counts going at the moment with no resolution visible yet on the daily chart.
Anyone see any third or fourth EW count alternatives?
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=51434&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1190793810
Sep 26, 2007 8:42am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY_EW Count Adjustment
Count Adjustment .
But Initial Targets still within the wave 2 range. ( Using the FIB Extention Tool )
Have adjusted the A and B Labeing for Wave 2
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=51492&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1190810507
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EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#685
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Sep 26, 2007 12:15pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY
Going for the 5m chart
We may have an extended wave 1 then a Diagonal triangle to finish off this Wave C? at a little above 88% retracement.
This could still go up some more.
I stilll have no trade loaded. But will wait for the Signal to go short.
May need 1 last wave leg Up for the 5th wave to hit the upper side of the triangle.
may not reach 100% C=A but higher than the minimum of 61.8(A) = C.
4 hour stoch still not above the 80 Level.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=51534&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1190823194
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#686
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Sep 26, 2007 12:36pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY
I am not placing any trades till I see that price is really going to come down where the 4 hour stoch has crossed back the 80 Level.
Long targets to watch for are:
233.78 for Resistance 3
234.78 As a Major Resistance Level
235.51 Weekly R1
Will wait for tomorrows Frankfurt and London Session to trade.
I am not feeling the urge to hurry up with my trades even on DEMO now.
It is nice to be able to sit back and analyze my charts with no Pressure at all.
I intend to digest EW counts with the other systems for cnfirmation / validation and supplementing my analysis.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#687
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Sep 26, 2007 7:26pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY
Quote:
Originally Posted by el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Going for the 5m chart
We may have an extended wave 1 then a Diagonal triangle to finish off this Wave C? at a little above 88% retracement.
This could still go up some more.
I stilll have no trade loaded. But will wait for the Signal to go short.
May need 1 last wave leg Up for the 5th wave to hit the upper side of the triangle.
may not reach 100% C=A but higher than the minimum of 61.8(A) = C.
4 hour stoch still not above the 80 Level.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Price broke out of that diagonal triangle and achieved a target price which you will see in the next chart.
It is valid for now to say that we have reached end of wave 2 for the following reasons
88% Retracement
C has surpassed the minimum 61.8% of A Projection
Attached chart will show possible new count.
1st I expect it to hit the bottom of the channel.
If it breaks out to the down side, then next target is the 2 red boxes down which as you can see wil be within the range of the 161.8% - 200% wave 3 projection. 2 systems converging on the same price range projection.
Although I expect the wave 1 down were this 12345 subwaves belong to to go lower than 229.72 for teh end of its sub wave 5.
But if the price bounces off the bottom side of the upward channel and fails to break it, a new count may need to be plotted again.
I would watch the 15m Stochastics and weigh my options once price hits that bottom channel, then relate that to the position of the 4hour stochs.
Happy harvest Everyone
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=51619&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1190849131
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#688
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Sep 26, 2007 7:43pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY in Different Systems
GBPJPY
EW with FIB Extention Tool Projection - Wave 3
Channel Projections
Swing HI-LO 50% retracement Projection
At least 3 systems projecting Price within the same range
I would expect it to go thru Monthly Pivot at 232.53 and the 15m 100EMA @ 232.23
But it may stall at the weekly Pivot of 231.85 which is also in the vicinity of the weekly 5SMA
Daily S1 is @ 231.62
Daily S2 is @ 231.14
If it breaks Daily S2 and finds a candle open and close below it on the 4 hour chart, then will see 220.97 which is 61.8% of the whole HI_LO swing from the Low Swing.
I am waiting for my 5m and 15m Stochs to go to over bought level to Put in a Short trade. Currently it is still in an oversold level.
4h stochs is ready to cross back thru the 80 level.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=51624&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1190850089
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#689
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Sep 26, 2007 8:55pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY _ 4hour Chart
for a continued Bearish Trend
4 hour chart using Fib extention tool with the following points as reference
0 = 233.67
1 = 229.72
2 = 233.23
161.8% = 226.84
200.0% = 225.33
261.8% = 222.89
300.0% = 221.38
425.0% = 216.44
This may still be a long way of as this is on the 4 hour chart.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
PS. Not for intraday traders to trade. above are just thoughts on using the FIB Extention Tool.
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#690
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Sep 26, 2007 9:13pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY_intraday
going back to 15m chart
if price bounces off he channel side, I will look for a zigzag completion where C=A is found. to complete another sub wave 2
And still eyeing an overall bearish trend
If it does go up and 5m and 15m stoch become overbought while 4hour stoch turns down or crosses down into the 80 Level , then I will load my short trade from there.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=51644&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1190855501
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Sep 26, 2007 9:22pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY_intraday
looks like un upward move will bounce off to the down side from 233.24
That is if it does not break to the upside of a channel drawn using the 2 Low swings of the 15 m chart and the Latest Hi Swing on the same TF.
This may coincide with the 5m and 15m stochs cross back pus the 4hour cross back validation.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=51647&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1190857468
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Sep 26, 2007 9:44pm Reason: missing chart
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #692
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Sep 26, 2007 9:24pm
Falcon eye
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Member Since Aug 2007
25 Posts
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This is my view
GBP/jpy preparing for a powerful movement and target area 238.80
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=51645&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1190856266
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#693
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Sep 26, 2007 9:34pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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Thank you Falcon eye for your view and your chart
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#694
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Sep 26, 2007 9:59pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY
Price bounced off 232.45
waiting for the break out to the down side or a continued trip UP for the Sub wave c of another sub wave 2
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=51651&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1190858547
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Sep 27, 2007 6:00pm
Falcon eye
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25 Posts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Falcon eye http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
This is my view
GBP/jpy preparing for a powerful movement and target area 238.80
Hi every body http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
G/JPY penetrated triangle successfully
Now i am looking to 238.80 as a target of wave C
It is nice to buy whene price retest 233.40
Who agree with me http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
http://www.fadhaa.info/up/uploads/ecade19550.gif
http://www.fadhaa.info/up/uploads/f4f5e38424.gif
Sep 27, 2007 11:09pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif gbpjpy
Seems like it wants to continue downward now.
But I am still not convinced that it would only go higher than 23.6% and not reach 38.2% retracement of Wave 3.
There is a long legged doji on the 15m chart and an engulfing candle now. so I could be wrong on this one.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=51953&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1190949083
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Sep 28, 2007 6:13pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar25165_1.gifmarketwavez
Senior Member
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif768 Posts
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Eur/Usd
After Blasting out of this Double Bottom
here we are now .. .....
- Price appears to be exhausting itself .......http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/winking.gif
- - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
( Click on chart to enlarge )
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=52155&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191017587 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=52156&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191017587 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=52159&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191024413
Last edited by marketwavez, Sep 28, 2007 8:07pm
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#712
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Sep 29, 2007 11:18am
dimon
Member
Member Since Sep 2007
6 Posts
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dont trade thishttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=52198&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191079083
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#713
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Sep 30, 2007 2:01pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY _ Potential EW Counts
GBPJPY Potential Counts
First off
4hour Chart - Trendline Resistance breached 2X to the Upside. I am expecting this to go up some more. Like up to 235.50.
If Price goes higher than 235.50, then next level to target is at 237.50 which is the end of Wave 1. If it goes higher than 237.60 then we are in Wave B.
And Wave B Target Range will be 237.61 to 78.6% (244.27) of the 251.07 - 219.31 Range.
On the 2nd Chart which is still a 4h TF, I have provided 3 Potential EW Counts. Blue, Red and Coral.
If Price goes higher than 237.60, then I adopt the EW Count in BLUE.
If price does not go higher than 237.60 but is higher than 235.50, then I adopt the Red Count.
But if Price does not go higher than 235.50, then I adopt he Coral Count and target for lower than 219.31 using FIB Extention/Expansion Tool like 213.98 which is @ 261.8% Projection wave 3 or 5 of the Big wave 5 Down from 235.50. 5 in Red inside the Blue Box.
Now notice that I have and Aqua and a Tomato Rectangles where inside you will find HI-LOs labelled in 12345 forming a triangle or what looks lke a triangle.
Tomato Rectangle can be could make a retracement of up 61.8% which is at around 231.44 or price could retrace down till it hits the Support trendline @ 233.25before heading Up again. This is possible to see on 1h and 4 hour charts.
Aqua Rectangle, This is a much bigger triangle and is seen on the Daily and the 4h charts. Price target will support the Coral EW Count Label going to end of Wave 5 down.
Now going back to Trendline Resistances,
Currently the smallest TF with a breached RTL (Resistance Trendline) is at the 30m. 235.23 and 235.43
Next is the 4hour TF. A bullish candlestick has opened and closed above the Trendline with targets going up to 238.47, 240.62, 240.76 and 241.04
Daily also shows a candlestick opening and closing above the Daily RTL. whch is supposed to reflect an upward move. However, if we look at the candlestick, it is a hanging man and found in an uptrend. A hanging man in an uptrend is interpreted as bearish . This may give way to the retracement I am looking at on the small triangle 12345.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
PS. Yes there is a Short Trade on my Demo Chart which I left over the weekend. BUt I have 1 long and 1 short trade over the weekend. The Short I placed right after I placed that short trade on my DEMO. then I dozed off to wake up before market closing and see that it moved against me. I then placed a Lng trade which is now almost at breakeven over the weekend.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=52320&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191175007 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=52321&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191175007
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EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Oct 2, 2007 12:20am
mrloba
Msian EW member
Member Since Jun 2006
5 Posts
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What do you think EG. Any hint where GU would be?
Attached Imageshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=52637&stc=1&d=1191298793
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 2, 2007 1:14am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mrloba http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
What do you think EG. Any hint where GU would be?
Hi .
I think GBPUSD will either DIP towards 2.0318 then move up towards 2.0587 or just proceed to 2.0587 from where it is now.
2.0587 is C=A in a Big Wave B of this Wave 4 corrective wave. But this Big Wave b can stil go higher than the previous high of 2.0652 on my chart if this turns out to be an expanded flat corrective wave.
So, I think we are in a wave c inside a Big Wave B UP.
I think, GBPJPY is going to follow this pattern too after having broken the 235.50 Resistance Level.
Something that I noticed though on the chart you posted...
wave 4 overlapped with wave 1 in your wave c.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=52646&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191302916
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Oct 2, 2007 1:30am
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#725
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 2, 2007 1:22am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
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GBPJPY Chart
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=52645&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191302519
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#726
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 2, 2007 3:08am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY
Wave 4 or 34 Limit.
not to go lower than 234.55 or the end of wave 31 before proceeding upwards.
but should it go lower, then either the wave count is invalid or we are building a bigger wave, wave 333 and consider the previous wave 33 as wave 331
And current wave as wave 332 which could go as low as 232.37 for a 100% retracement.
If it still goes lower than that, I will need to re-assess wave counts
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=52660&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191308864
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#727
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 2, 2007 5:34am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY
4hour stochshas crossed back below 80 level
5m and 15m stochs have reached over bought conditions and crossed back below 80 Level.
Price failed to open and close a candlestick above the 50EMA and 100EMA of 15m chart
a doji and a bearish engulfing candle closed on 15m ad 30m charts.
GBP news was came out lower than expected. (not good)
Combining aove factors would lead me to be bearish Biased up to 234.55
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#728
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 2, 2007 7:02am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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Quote:
Originally Posted by el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
4hour stochshas crossed back below 80 level
5m and 15m stochs have reached over bought conditions and crossed back below 80 Level.
Price failed to open and close a candlestick above the 50EMA and 100EMA of 15m chart
a doji and a bearish engulfing candle closed on 15m ad 30m charts.
GBP news was came out lower than expected. (not good)
Combining aove factors would lead me to be bearish Biased up to 234.55
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
GBPJPY has moved NORTH. broke thru 50 and 100 EMA and even thru the Daily Pivot. Candle was opened and closed above Daily Pivot. Bt it was a Bearish Candle.
Will wait for a Bullish Candle to open and close above the Daily pivot.
It is still possible for price to go back down.
Based on attached chart, I think we are now having a wave 2 retracement targetting at least 61.8% though normally 78.6 for GBPJPY but also up to 88%.
Maximum retracement is at 234.93 . if it goes lower than this, then wave 32 is not finished going down and we will still possibly see234.55
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=52707&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191322921
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Oct 3, 2007 5:33pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY _additional Thoughts
Potential Direction
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53141&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191447138 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53142&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191447138 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53143&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191447153
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EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Oct 3, 2007 7:31pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY
Weekly R2 is at 238.51
I think Wave count for this wave 5 will be valid unles price goes lower than 236.77 which is the end of wave 1 inside this wave 5.
The Magenta pitchfork somehow should contain the price within its channel.
See attached chart.
I have refined the lines and the channels for better presentation and precision for trendlines.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53161&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191454341
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#735
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 4, 2007 7:47am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY
I got stopped out of my last long trade for 65pips which included the 20 pip spread as price dropped lwer than 236.77 (wave 1 end). I left my trade running this morning ( Asia) while I went out for 6 hours to take care of other things.
I knew I got stopped out as I was monitoring price thru my PDA.
However, my other 2 trades were still ok as the short trade had almost 600 pip spread while the other long was 300.
Anyway, after the BOE news, I closed my long trade for a 35 pip loss and entered a Short trade at around 237.30.
Records on my broker will indicate a forward value of lessless than 100 pips so actual short values are
233.30
236.70
Which would translate to
234.30
237.70 on most MT4 platforms
notice how price stayed within the channel during the fal this morning.
A 5th wave is allowed to have wave 4 over lap with wave 1. I have revised my wave count and notice what I consider as wave 4 red now.
Earlier I just labelled 123 and was looking/waiting for wave 4. after the news, I think price will not go any higher (ooooppps..... everytime I say something, price goes the otherway. maybe I should adopt a contrarian attitude here. anyway.... on we go) than the 237.83 NY noon yesterday.
So now I have 12345 where wave 2 is expanded and wave 4 is a shard retrace. still within the rule of alternation.
Results
Total 100 pip loss for 2 trades.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53284&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191498452
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Oct 4, 2007 8:05am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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I have to leave again.
TP level I think should be 233.09 which is the 261.8% FE Level.
If I was watching this trade I would mnitor wave 3 and 5 at the following ranges.
161.8 - 200.0 FE sub wave 3
261.8 - 300.0 FE sub wave 4
However, I think Wave 1 of Big Wave C down must go lower than 229.72 which is about 228.72 pips on my forward trade with my broker. Overall that is even more than 425.0 FE from where I projected it from and this is still possible.
So I will actuallly set my TP at 229.72 conservatively while I go out for another 5 hours. Any thing can still happen during these period.
this pair has the potential to drop further down than my TP. but will be happy to exit at that level......
Or move my SL. which ever just incase it is not hit yet when I get back....
Or maybe just leave this trade running from here on.......
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53287&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191499484
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #737
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 5, 2007 6:53am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar25165_1.gifmarketwavez
Senior Member
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif768 Posts
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EG ///
In the Chart above you just posted
Your wave 4 is overlapping your wave 1 in Red color
----------------------------------------------------------
This should not be :
The low of wave 4 must not touch the high of wave 1
- I sent you the files to study Elliott Waves
Did you not read about this rule ?
-------------------------------------------------------------
Please go back and read the files
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#738
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 5, 2007 10:18pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by marketwavez http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
EG ///
In the Chart above you just posted
Your wave 4 is overlapping your wave 1 in Red color
----------------------------------------------------------
This should not be :
The low of wave 4 must not touch the high of wave 1
- I sent you the files to study Elliott Waves
Did you not read about this rule ?
-------------------------------------------------------------
Please go back and read the files
Thank you marketwavez for looking thru my charts.
Yes I am aware that it overlapped in this last chart. In my earlier chart this was not the case because I was thinking that with the BOE news price should go up and follow the normal wave structure. However when the news failed to get this up and the following things I observed on my charts :
1. price actually fell and overlapped with wave1 ( I was thinking a long the lines that an overlap by wave 4 with wave 1 was allowed in a diagonal triangle specially in a wave 5 of a wave c and I mis judged this wedge triangle as such) I further bent the rule by allowing a thorover of sub wave wave outside of the triangle wedge.
2. then nearly broke the triangle/wedge and the lower side of the Pitchfork channel.
3. then went up again but not yet reaching the previous peak 237.83 ( if this was sub wave 1 of the 1st wave inside Big wave C down then a 100% retracement to 237.83 was possible. ) What I missed to write on my post though was that I prepared myself to accept that mistake if that peak was breached. I was in a hurry to leave my computer for something else so I did not have time to explain my self then.
Now that my assumptions were proven wrong, I was going thru my previous charts that I posted here, I was wondering If you could please help me / correct me regarding the 4hour chart I posted on post # 732.
Here I have the Big wave A down in yellow. Then my Big Wave B up is divided into ABC Red where as you will see Sub wave b red is divided into abc x abcde ( a flat and a triangle joined by an x wave).
Because now I am torn between using that and using the earlier chart I posted in post #725 and 726. where sub wave b (aqua) of Big wave B UP is divided into a then a 3 wave b then c to end sub wave b aqua.
from here I start wave 1 up of Big wave C up and I also labelled wave 2 there in post #726.
Could you please enlighten me on this marketwavez?
I will not hide the fact that I use EW and supplement and compare my targets with targets I obtain using other systems.
Granting that I maintain the sub wave red B count in my last post, it seems that we may still see a higher price level next week if basing it just on the wave structure look. It means that wave 5 in C is not yet finished.
If I adopt the wave count in post # 725, then sub wave 5 (wave 35) inside wave 3 of Big wave C up is not yet finished.
Currently have just 1 Short position from 233 area from 09-28-still ( with a wide almost 900+ pip SL. to 242.50 ).
Analyzing this more, I am more inclined to follow my count on the post #725. What do you think?
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#739
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 6, 2007 2:36am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif My EW Count on GBPJPY
Daily Chart
Labelled why I think It will unfold as such
Tools used are
1. EW Principle
2. Fib Extention Tool for Projecting EW Waves
3. Fib Retracement Levels/Range
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53634&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191652452
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#740
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 6, 2007 2:53am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY
Chart 1
I should have posted this first before the chart on the upper post so you can better see the transition.
Anyway, I tried enhacing the previous chart to have more details for the final Analysis.
I hope somebody makes money out of this should it ever unfold as such.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53636&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191653587 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53637&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191653587 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53638&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191653602
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#741
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 6, 2007 4:43am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Taking Forecasting Further for GBPJPY
Last chart I posted would be for the Short and Medium Term Projections for GBPJPY
Below is a Longer Term Projection on GBPJPY Using EW Theory and Harmonic Patterns.
Knowing that again so many traders think that the USD is going down and with all the credit and the sub prime issues both in the USA and UK, the "market" has the tendency to think that we are going to see the "FALL" of the USD and see the Strengthening of the JPY.
Based on my Monthly Chart EW Count, yes ... it is still possible that this pair is going down up to the Wave 1 @ 208.14 of this Wave C in The Monthly Chart. However, I would think that this will not go any further than the last low we had at 219.31
Infact, we would probably see a running flat corrective wave where the C wave does not go beyond wave A. And this is due to the underlying strong main trend ( BULL TREND ).
This means that Our wave C down will end at 234.74 area and will reverse to the Upside with a strong move to get back to the Bull Trend.
Carry Trades will be back till the range of 259.69 - 263.33
After this....... you will see it in my monthly chart.
Notice where my Monthly Projection is and where my Daily Projection is located too....
Quite a number of things pointing to a narrow range of price levels.
I hope that if anybody follows this analysis and Projection and believe that this actually helped them profit ( incase this does unfold as i have projected here ) .... would be kind enough to make a donation to Charity.
May you all have a nice year end harvesting all these pips.
I will have to manage with whatever is left in my account. This has been a very expensive lesson for me. But I think I have learned quite a lot in this 1 year of studying forex.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53640&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191659825 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53641&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191659825 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53642&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191659852 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53644&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191661496
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Oct 6, 2007 5:21am
FxMt
Member
Member Since Aug 2007
55 Posts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Chart 1
I should have posted this first before the chart on the upper post so you can better see the transition.
Anyway, I tried enhacing the previous chart to have more details for the final Analysis.
I hope somebody makes money out of this should it ever unfold as such.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Hi EG,
can I ask you how do you see this count on H1 according to your count?
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53646&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191662422
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #744
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 6, 2007 6:48am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FxMt http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Hi EG,
can I ask you how do you see this count on H1 according to your count?
Hello FxMt
You will see that I have revised my wave c up count in the next post without invalidating yet my Projections for the medium to Long term.
I will go for your Questioned Labelling for 1? and 2?
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Oct 6, 2007 8:28am
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#745
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 6, 2007 7:04am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Short Term Projection for GBPJPY
I have revised my wave count for the sub wave c UP of big wave B UP.
It seems that wave 3 inside wave c is finished after getting into a micro EW Count.
This has resulted in What I see as a diagonal triangle / Wedge where wave1 is allowed to overlap with wave 4 in this case because this occurred in a wave 5 inside wave 3.
This is further supported with what we now see as a wedge that we can apply the Wedge theory to. ( As far as I can remeber, the original theory was npt allowed to be discussed here. How ever, I am discussing this based on EW theory and chart Patterns which seem to have the same strategies ).
Anyway.... to move on with this you will see in the chart that somehow things look like they will fall into place and the whole thing looks too IDEAL and too good to be TRUE.
But if it does unfold as such, may you all profit from this.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Ok I give up... I have rebooted my computer as I am unable to attach new charts to this posts for continuity.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53655&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191668193
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Oct 6, 2007 7:26am
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#746
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 6, 2007 7:32am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
followed by
and finally I am I able to attach all my charts
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53657&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191670253 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53658&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191670253 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53659&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191670312 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53660&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191670312
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53661&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191670330
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EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Oct 6, 2007 7:48am
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#747
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 6, 2007 8:12am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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Allow me to correct my monthly chart projection Limits.
In the earlier chart I referred to wave 4 limit as 208.14.
This was a mistake as this is wave 1 inside wave 3. Since we are now in wave 4 inside wave C, then the wave 4 limit should be end of wave 1 in wave C @ 192.43
I would maintain my stand now that price will not go lower than previous low of 219.31 as some major analysts have predicted ( well... they probably know more. I am but a newbie here. )
But based on the number of things I have tossed into the cooking pan of analysis using EWT, Harmonics, FIBS and the Wedge this is how I see things to turn out with this pair.
Maybe I am just trying to fit evrything to some thing very idealistic...
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53668&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191673496
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Oct 6, 2007 8:25am Reason: replaced with a better chart
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#748
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 6, 2007 9:18am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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Monday up to Tuesday... I would be looking forward to watching Price drop to 235.74 or ;ower . But not lower than 234.22
Then if the bounce appears and pricer reverses, then I would expect price to go up the range of 245.21 to 247.51 for the end of Big Wave B for the rest of the week till next week.
That would sound like a nice carry trade till next week.
The only major Drop that I expect to happen when this Big wave B occurs is a 38.2% retracement / Drop towards 235.32
I maintain that view because I am expecting this to play out a Bearish Butterfly on the Daily Chart while unfolding its EW Count.
From 235.32....... It will be BACK to the Carry Trade.
Let us not follow the crowd.
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EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#749
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 7, 2007 4:18am
kenari05
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can you analyze australian dollars?
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#750
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 7, 2007 8:24am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif My GBPJPY Analysis and Forecast Starts Here (Explained)
hhhhhhmmmmmm.......
I was hoping to stir the pot and derive some form of discussion on the points I presented in my chart specially because it was not solely based on pure Elliott Wave Theory.
Maybe the way it was presented makes it difficult to understand...
So I will try again and try to break the analysis 1 by 1.
I will start off with the 5m chart.
First, I would like to set the basic or general direction that I am seeing for this Pair.
Using the monthly chart, I believe that we are in a Wave 4 Sideways moving corrective wave.
Wave 2 on the monthly chart as you will see is a sharp Zigzag wave. And by the RULE OF ALTERNATION Based on Elliott Wave Principles, if wave 2 is a simple sharp zigzag wave then we would expect wave 4 to be a complex sideways moving corrective wave. That is probably why we see this wave 4 to be expanding sideways. And by the looks of it, it does not look like it is forming a triangle.
In any corrective wave, we initially see a 3 wave structure ABC.
I then make an initial assumption that C = A. I use the FIB Extention Tool to project this FE 100.0% using Points 0 1 and 2.
Where :
0 is the origin of wave A
1 is the end of wave A
2 is the end of Wave B
FE 100.0 is my Initial Target for Wave C end.
I hope that I have explained my self well on this one.
Please refer to the attached monthly chart and NOTE that completion or attaining this target will take months or even years. I am just sort of giving you an over view of this pairs price direction.
In EW Theory, we believe that sub waves comprice these bigger waves we see in the monthly charts. This means that the same EW Principles are applied to the Price movement in the lower time frames as is applied on the higher TFs and that same waves that follow the same EW rules make up the bigger waves.
Kindly note the Purple ABC. This is how I see wave 4 unfolding.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53753&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191759766
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Oct 7, 2007 8:54am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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You may be wondering why I am repeating these posts....
Initially I thought posting charts and leaving notes on my charts would be enough.
Now I think, many who are not familiar with EWTheory/Principles may have a difficult time grasping what I am trying to present here. Not that I think these are all correct. But I am hoping to draw some form of discussion on the GBPJPY EW Count and hope that I can have my counts validated by other traders who use the EW theory in their arsenal of tools trading this pair.
So Let us move on...
Still on the monthly chart, as you can see, based on my chart I am already assuming that GBPJPY is now on the Wave C Up in this monthly chart.
Wave C we must remember is an impulse wave which is subdivided into 5 waves ( YELLOW LABEL ).
Following the guidelines in numbering or labelling impulse waves, you will see on the next chart that we already finished wave 3 yellow and we are now seeing Wave 4 inside this wave C.
I have skipped the weekly chart as we can still clearly see the wave structure on the monthly chart.
Note also where I have placed my target for wave 5 which is the end of this wave C up.
That is the FE 100.0 @ 259.93.
Using the FIB Extention tool which You see in Pale green using the Points 0 1 and 2
129.32
241.06
148.19
Now before we reach wave 5 end, we still have to tackle wave 4.
First we must determine what to expect wave 4 to be in terms of its structure. we there fore apply the rule of alternation after we determine the structure of wave 2.
As you can see on the chart, wave 2 is a complex sideways expanding corrective wave. Therefore we expect wave 4 to have the simple sharp zigzag corrective wave form.
Now here are some points I have gathered to remind me of what governs a wave 4 development.
1. wave 4 does not overlap with wave 1. unless it is in a wave leading diagonal triangle. since this is a wave C, then wave 4 is allowed to retrace down up to 192.43.
2. In terms of Percentage retracement, wave 4 can retrace the length of wave 3 from 23.6% up to 50%
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53754&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191760429
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 7, 2007 9:15am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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Ok... I have missed to label the end of wave 3 yellow on my monthly chart.
This is the High @ 251.07 on my chart. see enhanced chart below.
So drawing a Fib retracement scale from end of wave 2 up to end of wave 3.... you will see that the retrace range of 23.6 down to 50% is from 179.37 up to 234.15... and in many cases 38.2% retrace is most common.
Now.. note also that Prechter mentions in his book that wave 4 normally ( not alsways though ) ends at or near the termination point of a subwave 4 of the previous Im,pulse Wave 3.
If we then combine all this guidelines... It is possible ( BUT NOT ABSOLUTE ) that we may be seeing the possible low of this wave 4 even if it is not yet complete.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53758&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191762897
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#753
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 7, 2007 9:39am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY Daily CHART
On the Daily Chart..
Initially the move from 251.07 down to 219.31 was considered to be a Big Wave A. This could take the form of 3 or 5 waves.
We can clearly see a 3 wave structure on the chart. The only way for us to be able to confirm that Big wave A is complete at 219.31 is by seeing the wave 4 count of a `12345 count get invalidated.
That is if the retracement up goes higher than the assumed wave 1 end at 237.60.
Our current price is at 238.71 with an earlier high at 238.84. This confirms the end of Big Wave A at 219.31
So we are in Big wave B now.
The Rule of alternation also applies to Wave A and Wave B. If wave a is a sharp or simple zigzag then wave B will be a complex sideways expanding corrective wave.
In this case, Big Wave A is a sharp zigzag wave so Big Wave B must be a complex sideways expanding corrective wave.
As we can see on the Daily chart, Big Wave has expanded sideways and formed a triangle in its sub wave B also.
Big wave B though classified as an expanded wave may also simply be described as a 3 wave structure ABC even if the sub wave B is a triangle.
sub wave a and sub wave b ( triangle ) already looks complete. So we should now be seeing the sub wave c inside this Big wave B to be unfolding.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53759&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191764349
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#754
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 7, 2007 10:25am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif 4hour chart
Now that we are in wave c which is divided into 5 waves as an impulse wave,
This is where I have to options of labelling me EW Counts on this Pair.
First I use the FIB extention tool to project wave 3 and wave 5 when I can see that a POSSIBLE count for wave 1 and wave 2 is present.
Option 1 ______
First sign is where I positioned the Magenta FIB Extention tool.
This means that wave one started at 229.20 which is also the end of the triangle sub wave b and the wave 1 is at 234.22 and wave 2 is at 229.72
Option 2 ______
Second potential count iswave 1 still at 234.22 while wave 2 is at 233.67
I will select Option 1 because I came across a literature and I can not remember where.... but it states that sub wave 1 of wave 3 must go beyond end of higher degree wave 1. This is only satisfied by Option 1 in Magenta.
As a guideline then I will set my target for sub wave 3 at the FE 161.8 of this drawn FIB Extention tool Magenta. And this is at 239.19.
Referring to the chart again, you will see that we are very near this price level on the GBPJPY.
Let us dissect the wave 3 further on this 4 hour chart.
We know that wave 3 ( 33 here ) must never be the shortest. Seeing what seems a 5 wave structure already finished, let us check if the previous rule has been violated.
Again we use the fib extention tool on each impusle wave.
we see wave 33 is a little less than 100% of wave 31 ( Pale Green FIB Extention Tool. This means that wave 33 is shorter than wave 31. therefore, wave 35 must be shorter than wave 33 to adhere to the rule.
Let us measure or compare the current length of wave 35 to wave 33 using the BLUE FIB Extention tool. Here we see that wave 35 is just about 80% of wave 33.
With this , it means that wave 33 is not the shortest comparing to wave 31 and possible wave 35.
wave 31, 32 and 33 seem to have already exhibited the complete characteristics of their wave nature and completetd the sub wave counts.
This leaves us to confirm the remaining wave 35
PS. the chart below supercedes the previous EW Count I made and posted as a revision prior to this specially where I label wave 2 in the sub wave c.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53761&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191767374
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#755
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 7, 2007 11:14am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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Now a cleaner chart on the 4h TF
Projecting target for wave 3 navajo white using the magenta FIB Extention Tool.... this is at FE 161.8 @ 239.46 Price is just about to reach it with the Friday's climb.
Using the internal wave structure of wave 3 navajo white using the yellow waves 30 , 31 and 32...... based on the Pale Green FIB Extention tool, wave 35 is expected to reach FE 261.8 @ 245.01
But using the projections of the Pale Green FIB extention tool seems to over shoot the actual natural target. Besides the internal structure of the wave 3 navajo white is not the usual type as it seems that it is wave 31 which is extended and not wave 33.
Furthermore, as I have explained in the earlier post wave 33 is found to be shorter than wave 31. therfore wave 35 must be shorter than wave 33.
And as you can see the 2nd chart, this rule does not seem to have been violated it. But I must be able to prove that wave 35 is already finished or at least will be lower than the BLUE FE 100.0 @ 239.60
higher than 239.60 will invalidate the wave count inside wave 3 navajo white because this will make wave 35 longer than wave 33 which is already shorter than wave 31.
we must also remember that Big Wave B on the daily chart normally retraces Big Wave A up to 78.6% which is already at 244.27
so we can not just end wave 35 or wave 3 navajo white @ 244.27 since this suggested end of Big wave B where we are at its sub wave c and probably at the end of its wave 3 navajo white would seem very unlikely considering that we still have to make a retracement of commonly 38.2 percent of wave 33before wave 5 navajo white for its sub wave c end.
so i had to use other tools to seek validation or potential confirmation if we really saw the end of wave 35 or wave 3 navajo white.
and the wedge theory was brought up which I encountered in the Daily GBPJPY Analysis thread.
after checking and making some calculations, I think I found a reason to seek additional confirmation using a deeper knowledge of EWT.
then I got reminded about the leading diagonal triangle which when found in a wave 5 (here it is wave 35) will render a wave count valid. and here we are, i believe we have a leading diagonal triangle in this 4 hour chart.
Next step is to prove that the internal structure of this leading diagobnal triangle conforms to the EW Rules.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53765&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191770066 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53766&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191770066
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Oct 7, 2007 11:31am Reason: added text and explanations
Oct 7, 2007 11:42am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Proving validity of Leading Diagonal Triangle / Wedge
let us jump into the 15 minute TF.
you will see that in the attached chart, we have what seems a valid and qualified internal subwaves of this leading diagonal .
next to prove is that wave 55 on attached chart for the end of wave 35 must have a valid 5 wave impulse wave. which it seems to be exhibiting in the 2nd chart.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53768&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191771668 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53769&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191771668
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #757
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 7, 2007 12:47pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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Assuming that wave 35 is valid and that wave 3 navajo white has ended,
We can only further confirm this once price breaches or falls below the lower side of the wedge. When that happens, I would be looking at the 38.2% retracement of this wave 3 navajo white for the wave 4 navajo white.
like I said earlier, wave 4 retraces wave 3 from 23.6 to 50%. and commonly it retraces 38.2%
Now, notice where 38.2% retracement falls and compare that to the estimated Price based on the wedge theory...
The attached chart would show that they both fall in almost the same area.
Should we call this mere coincidence?
Anyway, based on EWT, wave 4 is allowed to retrace up to the end of wave 1 at 234.22 though this exceeds the suggested limit of 50%.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53785&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191776463
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Oct 7, 2007 1:01pm Reason: fixed chart labels
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#758
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 7, 2007 1:09pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Potential scenarios for this week
1. Throwever of price outside the wedge above it upperside going for the FE 161.8 @ 239.46. 38.2% retraces falls at 235.74
2. Price has seen its wave 35 end at 238.84, then 38.2% retracement is at 235.36.
But like I said, this is just the ideal coincidence. And based on EWT, price for wave 4 is allowed to retrace till end of wave 1 at 234.22
The 38.2% retracement and that wave 4 limitation may be translated as strong support levels.
If price goes lower than 234.22, then my EW Count is invalid.
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Oct 7, 2007 8:25pm Reason: typo
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#759
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 7, 2007 1:27pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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If wave 4 plays out as expected and making my EW count valid, then price should continue to climb again for the wave 5 navajo white.
Sights are set for the FE 261.8 - 300.0 of the Red FIB Extention Tool at 245.48 - 247.48
Incidentally, this range also falls in the same area as the 61.8% - 78.6% ratracement of the Big Wave A to attain Big Wave B.
Another coincidence?
Please not that on the chart, another thing to watch out for is the estimated time at which price will meet the estimated price target of the Bullish wedge retracement. where a vertical line is drawn from the intersection of the extended support and resistance trendlines that formed the wedge and see where that vertical line intersected the trendline formed by extending the line using points 1 and 4 of the price bounce inside the wedge. And here it is estimated to be attained at 2007.10.15.20:00 GMT +6.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53789&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191778034
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#760
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 7, 2007 1:42pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Jamming Area for the FIBS
Zooming out and looking atthe 4 hour chart again.....
we canb see that a number of projections using the FIB Extention tool have their estimated price levels almost in the same area as the others.
Let us take this 1 by 1.
1. Big Wave B yellow is seen as a 3 wave B were if C=A ( Aqua ABC ) then C is equal to FE 100.0 @ 244.39
2. Wave 5 navajo white is estimated to be in the range of FE 261.8 - 300.0 (Magenta FIB Extention Tool) 245.48 - 247.78
3. Incidentally, based on a guideline, Big Wave B is expected to retrace Big Wave A by 61.8 to 78.6% and 78.6% is at 244.27 Golden FIB retracement Levels on the right side of the chart.
ALL boxed in Yellow
Multiple coincidences?
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53793&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191778961
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#761
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 7, 2007 2:15pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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Attached to this post are Charts which I present to show an ideal classic potential scenario for the GBPJPY Pair probably forecastiong what to expect till next year.
First shows A Potential Harmonic Pattern applied to the EW and Fib based chart.
I am making probably too many assumptions here. But as I said before.... this is justa potential scenario for this pair.
various validating factors need to be monitored to determine if this is still a potential turnout for this pair as time goes by.
2nd chart would show labels for EW and also for the Potential Harmonic Pattern which I think would fall in the classification of a Bearish Butterfly.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53796&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191780873 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53797&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191780873
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#762
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 7, 2007 2:44pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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After you analyze the last 2 charts above, you will probably or definitely notice that my wave C yellow is too short for your taste... http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
First let me answer your question "WHY?"
..... A thought crossed my mind to see a possible relationship between EW and Harmonic Patterns.
Although wave 4 has not fully evolved yet, based on the projections I made.... Big wave B would fall on the 78.6% retracement of Wave A.
Based on that, I checked the Guide line for harmonic Patterns that would possibly allow a "B" which makes a 78.6% retracement of the XA Leg.
And I came up with 2.
First is the Bearish Butterfly
Second is the Bullish AB=CD
I will expound on this later. need to get some sleep out here.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
PS. Time Element on the chart has no valid precision yet. I was just toying on the possibilities. I am still working on how I can include Time into my analysis
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53800&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191782652
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Oct 7, 2007 7:07pm
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#763
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 7, 2007 7:57pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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In my earlier posts before Post # 750, I thought there was just 1 Harmonic/Gartley Pattern that would fit teh Potential structure of the EW Count I thought I was seeing and will see in GBPJPY.
While doing this step by step presentation, I realized that there was another Pattern that would fit in.
That is why now we have
Bearish Butterfly in combination with the Running Flat corrective wave for the Wave 4
And a 2nd pattern which is the Bullish AB=CD
The Bearish Butterfly is projected to unfold when
1st Price based on EWT should reach FE 261.8 ( 245.48 Red Fib Extention Tool ) of wave 012 inside wave wave c of the Big wave B Up
2nd this also coincides with the 78.6% retracement of the Big Wave A (244.27). and
3rd This will give us a 78.6% retracement (244.27) of the XA leg 251.07 - 219.31 ) for Point B in the Harmonic Pattern
To "make it fit" into this pattern and still find it valid, price then needs to retrace down only by 38.2% toward 234.74 for its Big Wave C down. This is still valid as a complete corrective wave and classified as a Running flat corrective wave even if it does not go down lower than 219.31 which is the end of Big Wave A. This can happen when the main Trend which is Bullish is too strong and thus leads price to move up again.
If this turns out to be the case, Wave 5 Of the Wave C in the monthly Chart will thus begin and unfold to possibly complete the CD leg of this potential Bearish Butterfly and also complete the wave 5 inside the Wave C in the monthly chart. This will be valid only if price projection reaches 1.27 retracement up of the XA leg for the end of Point D. which could take weeks or months.
Note that in the chart ( please excuse it for looking a bit messy. I had to put in most of the tools to have less charts and see most if not all tools and projections in just 1 chart for easy viewing )Bearish Butterfly point D projection ( 127% retrace of XA leg falls on 259.85) and a valid AB=CD also falls in that area at 259.70. In addition, wave C end in the monthly chart is projected to be in the same vicinity if C=A in the monthly @ 259.93
This Bearish Butterfly Pattern is seen as the 2 Blue triangles on my Chart
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
PS. Note that if Price goes beyond the limits that have been set using the Bearish Butterfly Pattern, Then these Projections and Forecast becomes invalid.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53853&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191801607
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#764
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 7, 2007 8:19pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Alternative Wave 4 Yellow Structure
As an alternative structure to what I have presented above, it is also possible "to fit or expect to fit Price to another Harmonic Pattern " as it unfolds its EW Count too.
And that is the Bullish AB=CD
where we see price
1. still reach 78.6% (244.27) retracement for the Big Wave B
2. internal structure of Big Wave B project its end at FE 100.0 at 245.48 C=A
3. then see a possible fall to 212.51 which is FE 100.0 of the C=A of a Zigzag corrective wave 4. ( which incidentally is a requirement for the Bullish AB=CD)
4. Note that it also coincides with the 127% percent ( Magenta Fib Retracement ) Projection for the retracement of the AB leg of the Bullish AB=CD Pattern and this lands @ 212.57 which is just 6 pips off the mark.
See the 1st blue triangle and match it with the Pale Green Triangle
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53855&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191802783
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#765
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 7, 2007 8:54pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Diagonal Triangle Theory on this 4 hour chart is invalid now???
Quote:
Originally Posted by el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Now that we are in wave c which is divided into 5 waves as an impulse wave,
This is where I have to options of labelling me EW Counts on this Pair.
First I use the FIB extention tool to project wave 3 and wave 5 when I can see that a POSSIBLE count for wave 1 and wave 2 is present.
Option 1 ______
First sign is where I positioned the Magenta FIB Extention tool.
This means that wave one started at 229.20 which is also the end of the triangle sub wave b and the wave 1 is at 234.22 and wave 2 is at 229.72
Option 2 ______
Second potential count iswave 1 still at 234.22 while wave 2 is at 233.67
I will select Option 1 because I came across a literature and I can not remember where.... but it states that sub wave 1 of wave 3 must go beyond end of higher degree wave 1. This is only satisfied by Option 1 in Magenta.
As a guideline then I will set my target for sub wave 3 at the FE 161.8 of this drawn FIB Extention tool Magenta. And this is at 239.19.
Referring to the chart again, you will see that we are very near this price level on the GBPJPY.
Let us dissect the wave 3 further on this 4 hour chart.
We know that wave 3 ( 33 here ) must never be the shortest. Seeing what seems a 5 wave structure already finished, let us check if the previous rule has been violated.
Again we use the fib extention tool on each impusle wave.
we see wave 33 is a little less than 100% of wave 31 ( Pale Green FIB Extention Tool. This means that wave 33 is shorter than wave 31. therefore, wave 35 must be shorter than wave 33 to adhere to the rule.
Let us measure or compare the current length of wave 35 to wave 33 using the BLUE FIB Extention tool. Here we see that wave 35 is just about 80% of wave 33.
With this , it means that wave 33 is not the shortest comparing to wave 31 and possible wave 35.
wave 31, 32 and 33 seem to have already exhibited the complete characteristics of their wave nature and completetd the sub wave counts.
This leaves us to confirm the remaining wave 35
PS. the chart below supercedes the previous EW Count I made and posted as a revision prior to this specially where I label wave 2 in the sub wave c.
Diagonal Triangle / Wedge Theory for what I thought was the 5th wave inside wave 3 could now be invalid because price still went up higher than 238.84 to 239.20.
Or is this the throwover to the upside? But checking the price structure, it may still be valid with the revised count on the attached chart. Giving a clearer 5 wave structure for the sub wave C inside that zigzag wave 5 inside the leading diagonal triangle.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
My mind
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53864&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191804765
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Oct 7, 2007 10:29pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Update for Potential Direction on GBPJPY
Attached chart modified on the Fib Retracement Levels due to the new High.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53879&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191810563
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #768
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 7, 2007 10:29pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar25165_1.gifmarketwavez
Senior Member
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif768 Posts
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Here is a look at the Usd/Yen going into next week....http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
- Price action appears to be moving towards the " End of a Wave 3 "
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
( Double Click on chart to Enlarge )
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53880&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191810590
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#769
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 7, 2007 11:16pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by marketwavez http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Here is a look at the Usd/Yen going into next week....http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
- Price action appears to be moving towards the " End of a Wave 3 "
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
( Double Click on chart to Enlarge )
It looks like GBPJPY is following a similar Pattern to How USDJPY is unfolding.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#770
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 7, 2007 11:25pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Triple Top on 4h?
A triple Top may be forming on the 4h chart of GBPJPY.
However, the first 2 candles indicate bullishness.
1st candle has a long bullidh body
2nd candle has a long lower shadow with a very narrow bearish Body and barely any upper wick and this indicates Bullishness in the market
so that is at least 2 out of 3 for the triple topwhose thrid candle is not yet finished.
on the 1hour chart, this is already a 4 point top and now shows an ascending triangle with an initially flat top level. and this indicates bullishness also.
So if I see price closing above 239.20, this means that the Bulls are in control of the market.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53889&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191813903 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=53890&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191813903
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#771
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 9, 2007 12:36am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif UPDATE 100907
I am a slow typist and prparing the charts take quite a lot of time for me. So I will post the charts first and explain later. maybe the others can cderive some ideas from these charts.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Step 1 on the Daily
I have revised my Wave B count to have a running flat joined by an x wave to a triangle. Some thing was bothering about the earlier triangle I drew plus the rule of alrenation betweeen an A and a B wave.
Hopefully , this count will be a better one I think.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=54155&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191904526
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#772
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 9, 2007 12:42am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Step 2 - 4H
On the 4 hour chart
Target is 237.40 before a retracement up for the sub wave 2 up for a main move down
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=54160&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191904894
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Oct 9, 2007 12:46am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Step 3 _ 1h
on the 1 hour chart
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=54161&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191905139
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #774
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 9, 2007 12:50am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Step 4 m30
on the m30 chart
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=54162&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191905423
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#775
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 9, 2007 12:54am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Step 5 _ m15
my 15m chart
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=54163&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191905670
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#776
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 9, 2007 1:16am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif m15 detailing route
watching if it will unfold as per chart
But first needs to go LOWER than 237.81 to dispell possibility of being a wave 4 retracement of wave 3.
Inner waves of the suspected wave 1 down are labelled in RED.
note first sub wave 1 red down at 238.59
then a more than 61.8% retracement for the wave 2 Red up.
Wave 3 down is seen with a bearish pennant (small wave 2 inside wave 3) followed by a symmetrical triangle ( triangle corrective wave 4 - indicating a continuing trend down ) waiting for wave 5 inside this wave 3 to finish of at the target range of FE 161.8 @ 237.55 to FE 200.00@ 237.13.
Then expect a retrace of about 38.2% of wave 3 towards 238.15 for the wave 4.
Then Price continues to go down towards the 38.2% FIB Level in Magenta ( 235.89.
Note that this is in the Yellow box where the FE Target Range of 261.8 - 300.00 (Wave 5 target range) is located.
Also note that the 1st impulse wave 1 of a possible reversal in trend must over balance the previous wave 5 impulse wave of same degree whose origin is at 236.14
when wave 5 or this first impulse weave is finished, we then expect price to retrace to the upside by at least 61.8% which could probably take us back to the 238.0 area.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=54164&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191906296
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#777
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 9, 2007 1:46am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Daily chart Analysis
Going back to the Daily chart on Post # 771
I have reviewed my wave counts again and made some adjustments.
To me it seems that a complete impulse wave has been finished now topping at 239.70 which falls on the or near the 61.8% retracement of rthe drop from 251.07 to 219.31 @ 238.94 Just a 24 pip difference.
This impulse wave could either be the whole of the sub wave c inside the Big Wav B up or it is only wave 1 of the sub wave c up od Big Wave B up.
There are 2 ways to verify this.
First, understand that price will fall or is falling now. I expect it to retrace once it reaches the vicinity of 236.0. If prices retraces and goes higher than 239.70, then there will be a continuation of the sub wave Cc up of the Big Wave B Up. this means we are in a wave 3 inside the sub wave c.
If price upon reaching 236, retraces no higher than 239.70 and starts to go down again, then next arget would be 229.72 specially if it goes lower than 232.37
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#778
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 9, 2007 2:05am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif AUDUSD
Quote:
Originally Posted by kenari05 http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
can you analyze australian dollars?
Here you go. I hope this helps.
On the 4 hour chart, I see AUDUSD having finished wave 3 at 0.9033
Expectuing a wave 4 retrace which is commonly seen at 38.2% (0.8704) this could be 1st TP.
Depending on how the wave infolds, it is still possible for it to go down up to 50-61.8%
Technically, it just should not go lower than wave 1 end at 0.8335.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=54176&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191909893
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#779
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 9, 2007 2:24am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif AUDUSD Daily
for
kenari05
Potential direction of AUDUSD as I see it on my chart
First I am looking at at least a 38.2 retracement as my 1st TP. next would be 50% then 61.8%.
Need to watch the waves unfold.
Maximum price can go down is till wave 1 end at 0.8335
afte finishong wave 4 it then goes back to the uptrend targetting the area of PARITY with the USD.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=54177&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191911024
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#780
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 9, 2007 8:26pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif EW Count Revision for GBPJPY
With the unfolding of the waves last night, the expected Fall of the pair has failed.
I have missed or maybe I completely ignored the rule that Wave 3 should never be the shortest.
**** Now I remember,
1st Is how I labelled Point 34. As you can see in the chart, I labelled Point or wave 34 at 234.93. If we look at wave 32.... we see the same form which is a simple sharp down move ( corrective wave ) _ high % of mistake here.
2nd my wave 51 seems wrong now. from a 4h chart then go down to the 1 hour chart, the 1st standard 5 wave impulse ends lower than the wave 33 aqua. It may have gone up some more to go higher. but looking at it now, it looks more like the continuation was for the sub wave b abd sub wave c inside the 1st leg of a corrective wave A which is divided inti 3 instead of 5.
3rd if i labelled 52 as the 34, then the rule of alternation would have been satisfied which is probably why I considered 239.70 as the top. because my point 2 landed on where 52 is on the current chart.
My use of the FIB Extention tool to compare wave lengths ( comparing wave 3 and wave 5 basing it on the FE 100.0. has encountered a dilemna specially with a complex corrective wave where the possibility of a Wave c being shorter than wave a occurs. This dilemna is where I should start measuring the length of the next wave such as wave 5. will it be at the end of the shorter sub wave c or is it at the end of the longest sub wave in the complex wave?? because I probably used the end of the last sub wave which unfortunately was shorter than normal causing me to have a shorter wave 5 measurement compared to the previous wave 3 length
So a revision of the micro wave count needs to be done.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=54424&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191975958
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Oct 9, 2007 8:33pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Possible New EW Count for GBPJPY
Revised EW Count
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
I think 54 needs to expand
SO I expect it to visit near yesterdays's low or lower .
But not lower than 31 @ 237.04 to complete the sub wave c of this expanding wave 34. Magenta Box
Although, you will notice that there is already a 5 pip violation here as wave 34 yellow went lower than wave 31 yellow 237.04 and the sub wave a of wave 34 yellow went to 236.99
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=54426&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191976367 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=54434&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191979781
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Oct 9, 2007 9:30pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #782
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 10, 2007 8:45am
ronnimar
Member
Member Since Dec 2006
7 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
follow up post 557.
slowly but surely !!!
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=54578&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192020318
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#783
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 12, 2007 3:58pm
JackSpade
Member
Member Since Jan 2006
17 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Afternoon squires, nice thread.
My eurusd wave counting chart... might be attached... if I have done it right...
Attached Imageshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=55301&stc=1&d=1192218957
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#784
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 12, 2007 4:17pm
surfer76
Member
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/1kt.gif41 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Hi Jake,
have mostly the same count. Waiting for the downmove.
Regards
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#785
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 12, 2007 7:06pm
ronnimar
Member
Member Since Dec 2006
7 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
nice chart jackspade
but there is only 1 problem.
as it look's ?! your w:4 will terminates in 1.3828
and that is in side the territory of w:1 (mark in red )
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/confused.gif
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#786
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 13, 2007 6:15am
JackSpade
Member
Member Since Jan 2006
17 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Hi surfer76 & ronnimar.
I meant for the current 'c' wave to have a target of the 50% fibonacci, which is also the level where the previous 'iv' wave stopped, and also where the top of 'I' stopped - although it does go inside a little bit you are right ronnimar so maybe have target inbetween 38.2 & 50.0
Im not sure about the bigger waves (I II III IV V) to be honest, more focused on the smaller waves (i ii iii iv v).
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#787
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 13, 2007 8:42am
surfer76
Member
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/1kt.gif41 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Hi,
i try to use ew not to rigid. In my first attempts i stayed hard by the theory.
But after gaining some experience in this area i try to handle this rule flexible. From my point of view it is only a guideline and not a strict rule. In very few situations you can see an ideal ew-pattern.
That´s the reason why i use Fibo´s and PF. EW is only one of three components. If we go down, than the task is to find a good ew count in lower TF to indicate the end.
Hope you can understand my thoughts.
Regards
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#788
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Oct 15, 2007 10:12pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,791 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY EW Count Update
Based on my EW Count, GBPJPY seem to have just finished wave 1 and wave 2 of the Bigger wave C inside Big wave B of wave 4.
Attached charts show where I think this pair is at.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=55852&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192500705 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=55853&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192500705 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=55854&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1192500718
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EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS