Mar 12, 2008 8:50am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY
GBPJPY
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Update on 2nd chart
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94480&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205326204 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94493&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205328872
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Mar 12, 2008 9:34am
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #2102
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 12, 2008 12:53pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY Charts
while I was offline or barely had any connection to the internet.....
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94550&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205340706 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94551&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205340706 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94552&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205340731 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94553&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205340731
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94554&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205340760 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94555&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205340760 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94556&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205340778
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Mar 12, 2008 12:56pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY Details of Analysis
And here are the details for my GBPJPY Price Analysis
Drafted while basically offline.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
This is so frustrating as I wanted to post this as I was drawing up the charts. But my platform was disconnected and it seems my internet connection even though a Broadband seems to be having problems.
But I am going to post these charts still when I get my connection back just so those who follow this thread will see the thought process in my analysis of how GBPJPY would probably workout in terms of Price projection based on the different Guidelines available for Impulse waves and Corrective waves.
You will notice that I first suggested a Zigzag wave 2.
1st I suggested a possible Zigzag wave 2 because we had a 5 wave move even if it ended with an Ending Diagonal wave 5 of smaller degree.
Then ask ,” should that not have been A or 1 then B or 2?” The answer is A and B was eliminated due to the fact that the supposed C reached more than FE 161.8. Infact, I was inclined to consider a very rare occurrence of a C = FE 261.8.
But this was already more than FE 425.0. THAT eliminated the possibility of and ABC. Therefore this is not a corrective wave or move. But an Impulse wave that potentially signals a Trend Reversal.
Potential Trend Reversal?.... Yes. That is right. It is always a potential until it plays out as such.
Now if we think that that impulse wave was wave 1, a retracement is expected.
Then we should be seeing a correction now and that would be a wave 2.
And we know that wave 2 normally is a zigzag.
So that should be the first thing to expect.
However , we also know that it can be a FLAT or an Irregular FLAT.
But rarely a triangle or is it NEVER?
If wave 2 is a Zigzag, chances are if will try to retrace from 61.8% down to 88% or even up to 100% of wave 1 and that is down to 203.66
But we will have a better idea as we watch how the legs play out.
We know that the internal structure of wave A gives us an idea
a.) on how B will potentially play out and
b.) what the whole corrective wave could possibly be
if A was a 3 wave structure Zigzag, then usually B will be a FLAT / Irregular FLAT or a more complex Zigzag to achieve some form of alternation within the corrective wave.
We also know that a Zigzag begins with a 5 wave stricture A while a FLAT or Irregular FLAT begins with an ABC.
In this case, we seem to have a 3 wave A
So overall must be a FLAT or an IRREGULAR FLAT in this wave 2 position
(But can also be a Triangle if this was in the wave 4 position)
Followed by an Irregular FLAT B.
To Project wave C,
FLAT = Generally wC = wA so FE 100.0 @ 205.87
Iregular FLAT = Generally wC = wA(1.618) or FE 161.8 @ 204.86
I am still unable to close my Long Trade for a small profit. So frustrating because I missed to Place my TP.
EGJ
PS. Finally got out even with 7 pips.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94558&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205340935 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94559&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205340935
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #2104
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 12, 2008 12:59pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY
unless GBPJPY encounters a strong support at the Daily Pivot level of 206.25 which could result in a further expansion of wave B. and push forward and delay the downward move for C.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Wow.... I forgot about the Triple swap on a Wednesday... That usually pushes this pair into the AIR.
I should have anticipated the move from Monday towards Wednedsday and now we have this pullback/retrace.
Would this extend towards Friday for a Potential Powerful move UP again on Monday culminating that possible wave 3 of wave 1 UP for a much bigger Wave 5 on the Daily chart?
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Mar 12, 2008 1:21pm
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#2105
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 12, 2008 1:33pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY
Pivots and Ichimoku helping determine potential support to coincide with retracement and projection/extention.
Provide trigger signals to trade a potential trend coinciding with the EW count.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94564&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205343179 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94565&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205343179 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94567&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205343623
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#2106
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 12, 2008 1:49pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Still another possibility on GBPJPY
another potential to bear in mind for GBPJPY
TIME.....
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94570&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205344141 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94571&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205344287 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94572&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205344498 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94573&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205344498
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Mar 12, 2008 2:00pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY bounce
Potential bounce for Y?
Entered a medium size trade to hedge my Short
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94575&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205345037 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94576&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205345037
Attached Imageshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94574&stc=1&d=1205344760
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #2108
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 12, 2008 2:25pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY
GBPJPY m05
Very Ideal scenario of walking the pair...... or should I say riding the waves?
Still but a potential...
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94583&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205346304 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94584&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205346776
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#2109
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 12, 2008 2:49pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY
end of wave 4 of smaller degree attained 50% retrace level instead of 38.2
Now for the 4 then another move up till the Asian Session....
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94586&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205347715 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94587&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205347715
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#2110
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 12, 2008 3:00pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY
GBPJPY
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94588&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205348342 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94589&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205348379
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Mar 12, 2008 8:33pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY
Good Morning Everyone. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Nice day, fine trading after a few hours of sleep.
w2 seems to be playing out fine for me.
If the wave counts on the price charts do not seem to add up to what is expected in form and size, there are other ways to verify.
And I use EW parameters for potential wave 2 and also the stochastics. Note that I also tried numbering the waves based on the Stochastics and I realized that the wave count on the chart itself did not play out that well.
But because we have other Guidelines to use, we are able to explain the new count better.
Remember Divergence in Stochastics.
Also note where Price bounced off. It was between the Weekly Pivot and the Daily S1.
And because the last low is now the Previous Days Low and price is still too near hear and just near the Daily S1, I would think that there is still a slight chance that price may still come down and even invalidate our count further.
But what would totally invalidate this is if price goes lower than 203.57
Remember that w2 is allowed to retrace w1 up to 100%.
In the meantime, I am still hedged.
When do I unhedge? hhhhmmmmm
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94659&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205367801 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94660&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205367801 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94661&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205367823 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94662&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205367823
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94663&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205367837
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #2113
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 12, 2008 8:44pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY
GBPJPY
Harmonic Patterns on the 15min chart indicates a still Bearish Pattern.
The Andrews Pitchfork on the 30 min shows a possible further move down to the 50% Breakout Level of the Prev Day's Range down to 203.5.
Although there is a better chance of seeing Daily S2 @ 204.29 which is near the 23.6% Breakout Level.
If you are using Trend Follower's System, a potential further fanning out of the MAs could also be seen or observed.
1st potential Reversal move using Murrey Math is @ 203.91 which coincides with 38.2% of the FIB Breakout level using Spudfyre's FIB Breakout Range.
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#2114
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 12, 2008 9:05pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif gbpjpy alternative count
Alternative count for GBPJPY
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94671&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205370104 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94673&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205370491 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94676&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205370845
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#2115
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 12, 2008 9:37pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY Macro view
Macro Point of View for GBPJPY.
Does this support the Fundamentals?
A possible wave 52 expansion on the Daily chart possibly duping traders into thinking that a reversal of trend is in place.
Bulls may only be having a temporary feasting. But Beware as Bears are probably just taking a breather. Too kind to allow the Bulls to feast for awhile.....
Note that if this w52....... w53 could be a big one . So be ready for anything.
Looks like my hedges will be staying on for a longer time..
This is probably what is nice with trading forex compared to Equities.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
PS.... Trying not to get caught and trapped within the wave counts of the lower time frames.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94681&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205372154 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94682&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205372172
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Mar 12, 2008 9:58pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY still with another view
Do not get confused with the different counts. I try to provide the different possible counts I see. It is up to you to see what you think is better or usable for your trades.
Note that trading a particular time frame could make a lot of difference in the outcome.
Do not hedge if the account is highly leveraged which I do not recommend unless you are an expert forex trader. Well... if you are an expert forex trader.... why would you even be on this thread http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/big_grin.gif .
So, newbies as most of you I note seem to be more classified under guests, start with a low leverage and still use good MM.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94689&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205373453 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94690&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205373453
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #2117
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 12, 2008 10:10pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
hhhmmmm
Attached Imageshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94694&stc=1&d=1205374206 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94695&stc=1&d=1205374206 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94696&stc=1&d=1205374217
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#2118
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 12, 2008 10:24pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY
.....
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94707&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205375564
Attached Imageshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94706&stc=1&d=1205375080
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Mar 12, 2008 10:51pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
.....
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94708&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205376656 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94709&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205376656
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #2120
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 12, 2008 11:25pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY
.....
ready to unhedge and take out the short trades @ end of w53 or allow to just ride the wave up on w54 then down again for w55.
in the meantime trade very light if at all..
Remember that the longtrades are earning SWAP interest (although may not be enough to compensate for the negative SWAP ) while the short trades could start earning as price goes down.
More of the less risky trades to be made now and preferably more of the short trades as we are seeing a larger tendency of a continuing Bear Trend on GBPJPY
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94717&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205379137 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94722&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205379256
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#2121
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 12, 2008 11:42pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPUSD
Something that might aide in EW counting on the GBPUSD.
May need to watch out actual trend on the weekly chart.
In the meantime that I am not yet ready to make my EW count on the GBPUSD as I have focused on the GBPJPY..... attached charts might be worth looking into for Price turns.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
PS. The Trend Follwer chart on the GBPJPY m15 turned out very nice.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94725&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205379668 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94726&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205379668 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94727&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205379688 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94728&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205379688
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94729&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205379710 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94730&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205379710 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94731&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205379724
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Mar 12, 2008 11:55pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY Count Caution
I switch charts between different TFs.
Some labels may not actually fit into the higher TF count. Just like the chart below. But you may be able to use it to determine impulse from corrective waves.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Updating within the posts by adding updated charts instead of new posts that drives this thread up the Discussion List.
update 2 : Chart 7
Changing/Revising wave count as it looks to have a triangle (ending diagonal triangle)
202.96 is finally HIT lower than the 203.1 proposed. If this was not a hedge, I would exit my short trade and run along. to trade another day.
But...... have to be careful when to unhedge.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94733&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205380514 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94736&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205380850 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94743&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205383507 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94745&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205383713
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Attached Imageshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94759&stc=1&d=1205389877
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Mar 13, 2008 2:42am
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #2123
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 13, 2008 2:53am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY
Reserved....
1 last wave 5 of 5 of 5.....
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
UPDATE
Chart 1 moved back the count because of the breakout to the upside so no 5 wave move in the tringe for the ending diagonal >
Update
chart 2
has 2 alternative counts in magenta and in blue
chart 3
shows an end to an impulsive wave. to be followed by a correction
Chart 4
Target short HIT and All Shorts taken off for some profit. Looks consolidating and getting ready to go down again. If not then Daily and Weekly Pivot could be next targets
Chart #6
is the narrow black ground chart. sorry about that. charts do not seem to follow a chronological order as they are posted.
if the move down is w51 of a bigger wave 5 down then at the minimum, a retrace of 61.8% is expected.
Drawing up the fib retracement tool.... we see that 61.8% level land where there is a confluence of the Daily , Weekly Pivot and the Strong Level of Resistance on the Murrey Math Set-up.
Let see how these will play up. I am trying to restrain myself from entering any short trades yet as my Long trades are now fully unhedged.
UPDATE 1100GMT
I had to leave earlier to pick up my kid from school. I was forced to hedge my Long Trades again. But it was okay because it had already retraced quite a bit putting me overall in a profitable position.
I checked my stochastics and the wave form though before pulling the trigger. came back to -19pips on the hedge
Now we have a Bearish Harmonic pattern on the 15min chart and price seem to be finding resistance at the Daily S2 while the stochastics is already over bought at the 15min chart too.
Could be a continuation down now.....
Chart #7
Got 10 pips from that last hedge and till now no new hedge for the long trades yet. Along the long trades to recover. Not really in a hurry to enter or add to my current recovering long trades.
Its recovery is a contribution to the increased earnings which is borrowed as price went down with my other short trades.
This is where one realizes that it is not important to be in a trade always or to keep adding on to your positions. These days, I am learning to stay put and trade less but more selective with entry positions.
turning to be quite profitable. Patience and restraint are key to a successful and profitable trading.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94782&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205394682 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94783&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205394682 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94786&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205395178 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94803&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205398593
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94846&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205412147
Attached Imageshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94768&stc=1&d=1205392632 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94807&stc=1&d=1205400240
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Mar 13, 2008 8:42am
Mar 13, 2008 2:54am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY
Reserved for charts....
Price is still far from the kumo clouds on the 5 minchart. more up move expected. Although it has crossed down on the 1min chart
can one understand why certain FIB levels on my chart are ticked?
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
UPDATE 1500GMT
Chart #4
Price has retraced by 38.2%. However this may just be the leg B of the whole correction. C is projected to go from 205.88 to as high as 207.26 for the FE 100.0 and FE 161.8 respectively.
Chart #5
from a different view
Chart #6
Trying to stay above the Kumo
Chart #7
Hedged all my Long Trades again as you can see on the chart. I am already in profit. so hedging this is fine now so I can go to sleep soundly knowing that if it goes up, net profit is same as before I went to bed. And if it goes down, my short trades will start earning again even though the Long trades will be on the drawdown side.
Good night everyone.
1548 GMT
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94852&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205413802 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94853&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205413802 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94854&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205414102
Attached Imageshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94884&stc=1&d=1205420330 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94885&stc=1&d=1205420641 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94889&stc=1&d=1205421434 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94902&stc=1&d=1205422941
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Mar 13, 2008 11:42am
61.8% retrace is @ 206.05
78.6% @ 206.89
88% @ 207.36
1414 PHI 031408
too bad for me. I have to leave now. re entered a full hedge @ 203.86
Won't be around to watch for a better entry.
increased my profit level even though I sacrificed 15 pips earlier.Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95077&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205464480 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95089&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205468296
Attached Imageshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95074&stc=1&d=1205463393
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Mar 14, 2008 2:08am
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #2126
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 13, 2008 8:02am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar55375_1.gifpipchaser
Expect the unexpected
Member Since Dec 2007
95 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GJ
Hi EG, IMO W5 was completed at 202.96 and we are now in A wave which can retrace between 38%-50% of W5. What do you think? thank you
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#2127
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 13, 2008 8:05am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar55375_1.gifpipchaser
Expect the unexpected
Member Since Dec 2007
95 Posts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pipchaser http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Hi EG, IMO W5 was completed at 202.96 and we are now in A wave which can retrace between 38%-50% of W5. What do you think? thank you
I'm talking about H4 timeframe
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#2128
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 13, 2008 8:56am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by pipchaser http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Hi EG, IMO W5 was completed at 202.96 and we are now in A wave which can retrace between 38%-50% of W5. What do you think? thank you
It is very possible that wave 5 of C bottomed at 202.96. We saw a 5 wave structured impulse wave which could also be described as having a w5 of smaller degree being almost equal to its w1 of the sma esmaller degree.
But let us not forget that it is also possible that even if wave 3 was already extended, wave 5 can also be extended.
we can only have a higher probability of saying that the trend has already reversed on the weekly chart if price GOES higher than 213.86. That was the level which we would have placed our wave 4 if that wave 4 was only in 3 waves and not a triangle.
Also consider that there is also a possibility that we had a triangle wave C4 on the Daily chart. That would mean we should expect a wave 2 type of retracement from here.
So there are various possibilities. What is evident is that we just saw a 5 wave impulse wave down and that we are expecting a correction or a reversal from the low of 202.96.
Next step would be to use the FIB Projection tool. The A or 1 then B or 2 then the C or 3 Extention will give you the first indication.
But if this move up somehow shows a 3 wave structured A or 1, then we know that that is an A definitely as no wave 1 is 3 wave structured. Expect a continuation of the Bear trend.
However if the 1st leg is 5 wave in structure, then watch out for the signs .
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Mar 13, 2008 9:26am
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#2129
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 13, 2008 9:19am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar55375_1.gifpipchaser
Expect the unexpected
Member Since Dec 2007
95 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif thank you
Thank you EG. I'll watch carefully the movements in the next period.
Good luck http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#2130
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 13, 2008 11:05am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar55375_1.gifpipchaser
Expect the unexpected
Member Since Dec 2007
95 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif UJ weekly chart
We have a descending triangle on weekly UJ chart. Triangle are usual patterns for W4 but previous wave is too short to be W3. Is it possible to be W2?
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94887&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205420697
Mar 13, 2008 11:48am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar55375_1.gifpipchaser
Expect the unexpected
Member Since Dec 2007
95 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif H1 U/J
This is the chart for H1 U/J. According to my chart we are now in W2 from extended W3. EG there is something tin my chart that I couldn't fix. Time for W12 is smaller than time W14. In terms of pips counting, Wave W11 are aprox equal to W15 .
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94904&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205423227
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #2132
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 13, 2008 12:02pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
as an exercise...... this is how I would label it
however, my concern is that it does not follow the rule or guideline of alternation.
will look into it again tomorrow.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=94912&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205424248
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#2133
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 13, 2008 12:13pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar55375_1.gifpipchaser
Expect the unexpected
Member Since Dec 2007
95 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
as an exercise...... this is how I would label it
however, my concern is that it does not follow the rule or guideline of alternation.
will look into it again tomorrow.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Ok, thanks a lot, I'm going to label again and discuss tomorrow.
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#2134
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 13, 2008 6:03pm
TheCable
Member
Member Since Mar 2007
110 Posts
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pipchaser wave 2 should not be a triangle.This is a rule of the Elliott Wave Counting.I`m speaking about the monthly analysis u posted.I'm also considering this to be a triangle,but as B of a A-B-C correction.If this scenario is right we're exactly in the E wave which is very dangerous,because it makes very offen false breaks and when we speak about monthly chart those false breaks could extend to 600-700 pips or more.
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#2135
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 13, 2008 9:55pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY
Reserved for charts
1631 PHI 031408
........
added 5th chart to show potential breakout level
1652 PHI
Chart #6
exited all short trades already and letting the long trades recover.
but ready to re enter again if it goes down to 203.52.. do not take these trades with me. if ever.... just check your wave counts. I am still experimenting on combining different methods with EW
1704 PHI
Other likely targets using other systems are
Daily Pivot @ 204.55
Weekly Pivot @ 205.90
Previous Days Hig @ 206.10
Murrey Math Strong Resistance Level @ 206.25
1846 PHI 031408
Chart # 7
I have entered new short trades having increased profit thru recovery earlier.
Entered a bit early because I had to leave again. anyway, I am back now so looking for new opportunity to enter new trade most likely for a Buy Trade.
Check out the Double Bottom @ 203.68
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95114&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205483063 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95115&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205483063 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95116&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205483088 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95117&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205483088
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__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Mar 14, 2008 6:44am
Mar 13, 2008 10:16pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY
Reserved for Charts
1908 PHI 031408
Chart 1
Price is ranging more like a parallelchannel likened to wave B. So most likely ready to Breakout from this channel range.
Less risky to enter after the breakout.
also exercising to read stochastics in different timeframes.
1946 PHI 031408
Chart #2
have unhedge too early. but most of stochastics were overbought. bit my nails and waited.
current scenario fits aFLAT wB. so expecting a wC @ FE 100 @ 204.26 or FE 161.8 @ 204.92
Chart # 3
on the 15 min chart. Projection levels for wC end
Chart #4
Looking at the 30 min chart, it would seem that we will be facing a running FLAT corrective wave as FE projections of the internal stricture of WC would only have a maximum of 204.92 projection which on the 30 min chart is just around FE 75.00 @ approx. 205. This would not make it beyond the end of wA on the 30min chart causing it to be a running FLAT corrective wave.
However, if wC on the 5min wave becomes complex, then we can see higher levels to end wC on the 5min chart.
2026 PHI 031408
Chart #5
Shows Double TOP and Double Bottom prior to the breakout to the down side for a FLAT wave B
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95136&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205492571 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95143&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205495293 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95144&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205495293 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95145&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205495322
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95152&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205497486
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Mar 14, 2008 8:24am
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #2137
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 14, 2008 12:32am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar55375_1.gifpipchaser
Expect the unexpected
Member Since Dec 2007
95 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheCable http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
pipchaser wave 2 should not be a triangle.This is a rule of the Elliott Wave Counting.I`m speaking about the monthly analysis u posted.I'm also considering this to be a triangle,but as B of a A-B-C correction.If this scenario is right we're exactly in the E wave which is very dangerous,because it makes very offen false breaks and when we speak about monthly chart those false breaks could extend to 600-700 pips or more.
Yes, that's why I'm a little bit confused there, but I'm not taking trades based on weekly charts so I'll just watch development of this waves in weekly charts.
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#2138
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 14, 2008 12:44am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar55375_1.gifpipchaser
Expect the unexpected
Member Since Dec 2007
95 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif charts
Hi EG. Keep posting. I'm reading all the post, especially those who are reserved for charts. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Good luck
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#2139
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 14, 2008 8:03am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPUSD
chart
2047 PHI
chart #5
took that scalp. entered a bit early but scalped the pullback. was a quick one. more pips downwards. looking for a re entry for my short
although, I should have stayed on as I think this is beginning of w3 within w3.
2054 PHI
another opportunity maybe...
2.0212 means resumption of downward move
2108 PHI
chart #7
watching out for this new opportunity
2212 PHI
nearly got butchered on this re entry.
was able to recover and got out fine.
was not hedging this like gbpjpy. looks like I would need to focus on just 1 pair for scalping. was having difficulty monitoring price movement as I watch these thru various system. Priority would be GBPJPY.
Not unless I see a long term trade on GBPUSD for example
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95146&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205496221 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95147&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205496768 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95148&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205496768 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95149&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205496786
Attached Imageshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95157&stc=1&d=1205499007 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95158&stc=1&d=1205499007 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95161&stc=1&d=1205499669
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Mar 14, 2008 12:08pm
Mar 14, 2008 9:17am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY
5min chart Target HIT
2217 PHI
Currently all trades are hedged with an opportunity to earn partial as it goes up while the rest of the longs will try to recover.
Overall, net situation is still in profit. and still have substantial margin to trade on a smaller scale than the hedge trades
if price goes up , then there is an opportunity to earn while if it goes down, everything is hedged and losses will be minimal due to the difference in SWAP fees between Long and Short Trades.
Even though price has gone lower than the low @ end of w5 or w51 (202.960), now at 202.86, I am still inclined to think that we will still see the actual wave C UP still
will not be adding any new trades now. leaving all trades on over the weekend.
next post will most likely be towards the end of the weekend or on Sunday.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95171&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205500629
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Mar 14, 2008 12:19pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #2141
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 14, 2008 4:30pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPUSD
GBPUSD
with the coming end of what seems to be wave C,
a possible 5 wave structure is expected to be seen moving UP.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95281&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205526473 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95282&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205526635 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95283&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205526635
Attached Imageshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95288&stc=1&d=1205526955 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95289&stc=1&d=1205527267 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95291&stc=1&d=1205528832 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95295&stc=1&d=1205529037
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Mar 14, 2008 5:10pm
Mar 15, 2008 2:00am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPUSD EW Analysis
I was looking at the GBPUSD today and this is how I see it going from here. I will be posting charts in a series as I studied how to label them. I will not be able to post the explanations yet and details as I have to leave in a short while. But I am posting it anyway for those interested to look into them and maybe be able to draw out some conclusion as to what I am driving at.
I will have 1 chart per post to be able to explain details in each chart
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Chart 1
PS. 1033 PHI 031608
Had to change position of purple 1 and 2 inside C3
Details:
Note that my explanations below are more for the newbies who are just starting out on EW . This will be too elementary for those who are practicing EW. I will try to explain why I label them as such in as detailed as possible so I can show those interested to learn EW that for as long as we know the concepts, we can use these as guidelines in analizing price movement.
Daily chart where we see a 3 wave movement down as ABC followed by a 5 wave move up then 3 wave move down which does not go lower than end of C
So we label this as A or 1 then B or 2 all Purple. Do not mind the Big 1 and 2 Purple. I will explain later why I came to that conclusion which is actually the purpose of this exercise. I will present all the possibilities I see then we eliminate them 1 by 1 thru reasoning using the EW rules and guidelines as the waves develop. more like a process of elimination.
Ok... notice how the C wave was labelled. 1st 5 impulsive waves was found to have ended at C1. followed by a retracement to C2. then a new move downwards which exceeded the previous end of wave A.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95488&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205634308
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Mar 16, 2008 12:48am
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #2143
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 15, 2008 2:01am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPUSD Chart #2
GBPUSD Chart #2
PS. 1033 PHI 031608
Had to change position of purple 1 and 2 inside C3
Details:
Initially I was planning to do just a video presentation explaining what is happening on my charts as that is faster to do than to type my explanation. also on the video I can point and show in a step by step manner what I do on my charts. However, the camtasia presentations I initially made came up to big files which can not be uploaded to each post. So I have to go back to typing.
Anyway... on the chart belowI have Expanded this to the 4 hour chart so we can see the subdivisions in the waves on the daily chart.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95489&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205634441
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Mar 16, 2008 12:40am
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#2144
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 15, 2008 2:02am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPUSD Chart #3
GBPUSD Chart #3
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95361&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205560935
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#2145
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 15, 2008 2:04am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPUSD Chart #4
GBPUSD Chart #4
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95362&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205560987
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Mar 15, 2008 2:05am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPUSD Chart #5
GBPUSD Chart #5
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95363&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205561104
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #2147
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 15, 2008 2:05am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPUSD Chart #6
GBPUSD Chart #6
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95364&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205561146
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#2148
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 15, 2008 2:06am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPUSD Chart #7
GBPUSD Chart #7
Attached Imageshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95365&stc=1&d=1205561184
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#2149
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 15, 2008 2:07am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPUSD Chart #8
GBPUSD Chart #8
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95366&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205561219
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#2150
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 15, 2008 2:07am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPUSD Chart #9
GBPUSD Chart #9
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95367&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205561259
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#2151
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 15, 2008 2:08am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPUSD Chart #10
GBPUSD Chart #10
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95370&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205561676
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#2152
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 15, 2008 2:15am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPUSD Chart #12
GBPUSD Chart #12
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95371&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205561727
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Mar 15, 2008 2:16am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPUSD Chart #14
GBPUSD Chart #14
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95372&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205561796
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #2154
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 15, 2008 2:17am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPUSD Chart #15
GBPUSD Chart #15
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95373&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205561839
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#2155
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 15, 2008 2:18am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPUSD Chart #16
GBPUSD Chart #16
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95374&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205561877
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#2156
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 15, 2008 2:18am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPUSD Chart #17
GBPUSD Chart #17
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95375&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205561915
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#2157
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 15, 2008 2:31am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPUSD Chart #18
GBPUSD Chart #18
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95376&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205562695
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#2158
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 16, 2008 4:35am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar55375_1.gifpipchaser
Expect the unexpected
Member Since Dec 2007
95 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBP/USD M15 chart
I think we are in W2 which, like EG said, is seems to be an irregular flat . The target for C wave could be 2.0105 which is 261.8 of A wave. From this point I'm expecting as W3 to start. Also we have to watch 1.9995 as starting point of W1, If price goes under this point I'm going to relabel charts.
Good luck
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95514&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205656459
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#2159
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 16, 2008 5:07am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar55375_1.gifpipchaser
Expect the unexpected
Member Since Dec 2007
95 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GJ daily
IMHO, we are in W5 on GBP/JPY daily. Taking into consideration that W1 started at 241.46 and ended at 220.98 (20.48), W5 started at 213.86. My target for W5 is 193.30-40 (213.86-20.48).
Good luck
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95515&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205658377
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#2160
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 16, 2008 7:52am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPUSD
GBPUSD alternative view using trendlines and other possibilities.
Note that Breakouts on 4 hour trendlines can be very powerful and have high probability trades.
Use with caution.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95533&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205668257 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95534&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205668257 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95536&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205668279 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95537&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205668279
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95539&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205668295
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Mar 16, 2008 8:33am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY
from March 1 post # 2025
and how price developed
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95543&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205670733 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95544&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205670733 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95545&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205670755 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95546&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205670755
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95552&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205670938
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #2162
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 17, 2008 6:31pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPUSD
GBPUSD
I hope that all if not many of you considered the charts I posted on #2160 regarding the Possibilities of a 4 hour trendline break and the Daily trendline break.
Price broke out of that 4 hourt support trendline break and bounced a little on the next 4 hour support trendline.
I would expect a further fall and will be watching it hit or touch the Lower median of the Andrews Pitchfork.
If you are not greedy, I would stay away fron this for awhile. Yesterday's fall was not too bad for a Monday eh? Specially for a FOREX Trader http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
So when counts seem to be a bit unclear for me, I turn to other tools to help me track price. May not always be 100% accurate. But it helps.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95927&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205793089 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95928&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205793089
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#2163
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 17, 2008 6:39pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY
GBPJPY
w5=w1 was achieved.
A retrace is due . However, further fall is inevitable.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95929&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205793525 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95930&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205793525 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95931&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205793550
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Mar 17, 2008 6:48pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by pipchaser http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
I think we are in W2 which, like EG said, is seems to be an irregular flat . The target for C wave could be 2.0105 which is 261.8 of A wave. From this point I'm expecting as W3 to start. Also we have to watch 1.9995 as starting point of W1, If price goes under this point I'm going to relabel charts.
Good luck
Hey pipchaser.
Kindly check again. I just noticed this in your chart.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95933&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205793958
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #2165
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 17, 2008 6:50pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPJPY
Quote:
Originally Posted by pipchaser http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
IMHO, we are in W5 on GBP/JPY daily. Taking into consideration that W1 started at 241.46 and ended at 220.98 (20.48), W5 started at 213.86. My target for W5 is 193.30-40 (213.86-20.48).
Good luck
Congratulations Pipcather.
Well done. ALL PIPS in the BAG. Better collect and convert now.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#2166
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 18, 2008 1:40am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar55375_1.gifpipchaser
Expect the unexpected
Member Since Dec 2007
95 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Hey pipchaser.
Kindly check again. I just noticed this in your chart.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Hi EG. Feel free to correct my labeling errors. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#2167
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 18, 2008 1:42am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar55375_1.gifpipchaser
Expect the unexpected
Member Since Dec 2007
95 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by el grande http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Congratulations Pipcather.
Well done. ALL PIPS in the BAG. Better collect and convert now.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Thanks a lot EG. I had my TP at 193.35 and all the pips are in my pocket http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
I think you have enjoyed too this short ride. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/thumbsup.gif
Good luck
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#2168
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 18, 2008 1:55am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar55375_1.gifpipchaser
Expect the unexpected
Member Since Dec 2007
95 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif USD/JPY H1
IMHO, on H1 TF we are in W4 of W3, which is a triangle correction. The triangle should be complete in the 98 zone and then I'm expecting W35 to start. I'm going to short UJ in 98 area with first target at 95.73.
Good luck
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=95980&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1205819574
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#2169
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 18, 2008 7:57am
Serega
Member
Member Since Jun 2007
162 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by pipchaser http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
IMHO, on H1 TF we are in W4 of W3, which is a triangle correction. The triangle should be complete in the 98 zone and then I'm expecting W35 to start. I'm going to short UJ in 98 area with first target at 95.73.
Good luck
Not bad. I agree with your targets. But check the rule of extension. Do you suppose your w35 will be extended? Or may be we have some other configuration on the market. I am worrying that your 33 isnt extended.
Good luckhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#2170
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 18, 2008 8:29am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar55375_1.gifpipchaser
Expect the unexpected
Member Since Dec 2007
95 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by Serega http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Not bad. I agree with your targets. But check the rule of extension. Do you suppose your w35 will be extended? Or may be we have some other configuration on the market. I am worrying that your 33 isnt extended.
Good luckhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Hi Serega. Your view is correct. I`m expecting as W5 to be extended and price get lower than 95.73. That's why I said first target. I will closely watch this target.
Good luck
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#2171
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 19, 2008 12:54am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar55375_1.gifpipchaser
Expect the unexpected
Member Since Dec 2007
95 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by pipchaser http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
IMHO, on H1 TF we are in W4 of W3, which is a triangle correction. The triangle should be complete in the 98 zone and then I'm expecting W35 to start. I'm going to short UJ in 98 area with first target at 95.73.
Good luck
Price has retraced to 78.6% area. I didn't take any short positions until now. I`m waiting for H1 close to take any action
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif
#2172
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 20, 2008 5:38am
Serega
Member
Member Since Jun 2007
162 Posts
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I see neutral triangle on Daily on usd/cad.
As for me we can expect long drive for about 1000 pips on this pair
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#2173
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 20, 2008 10:09am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar59904_2.giflancelot41
Member
Member Since Jan 2008
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif12 Posts
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Hello Serega, this are very possible moves, but i would labeled them as wave 1 and 2 in wave c...
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#2174
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 21, 2008 2:47am
Serega
Member
Member Since Jun 2007
162 Posts
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Wave C cant be here 5 waves impuls(posssible terminal) as many guys think, cause we dont have the extended wave(the rule of extension). So if it is not 5 waves C then its 3 waves C (a-b-c). And 3 waves C we can find only in triangles. In neowave there is one kind of new triangles that is called Neutral Triangle in which C wave is the largest segment.
Thanx for comments.
Must admit that lots of my friends either dont believe that it is triangle.
But we can say that it is truth when the market will finish the correction and start for next impuls uphttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Good luck
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#2175
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 21, 2008 10:02am
money
Multiple Usernames
Member Since Jul 2007
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/1kt.gif106 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif USD/CAD
Hello everybody
i ve get my status back, forever i hope.....http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
here is my chart for USD/CAD
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=97009&thumb=1&d=1206108112
Mar 24, 2008 11:48am
money
Multiple Usernames
Member Since Jul 2007
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/1kt.gif106 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif USD/JPY
Hello everyone!
It looks like this threath is not so active that used to be..So I am back to post somethink usefull. Well I am trading USD/JPY right casue its very interesting right now, Price just broke out of A-B-C-D-E triangle after HOUSE PRICES report. soo i quickly grab the opportunitty while i was watching cnbc plus and went long... after 25 minutes price already made new high and broke resistances 100,19 and 100,45 which should now stands as very strong supports, and this supports should push price much higher. I labelled my targets on the picture bellow. (usd-jpy chart)
The main reason why I aslo went long is becouse GBP/JPY break trendline resistance which now looks also on upside dirrection with possibillities of zigzag correction which is very simmilar to the correction on USD/JPY.
If you trading a lot GBP/JPY or USD/JPY you must watch this two pairs at the sametime, cause if you are wacthing supports and resistances on both pairs then it should be a lot more easier to recognize the price targets...
Well, the brokethorugh on GBP/JPY was my confirmation, so i went long on USD/JPY when i saw this, cause if price would bonuced from this trendline restinance then we would see price on USD/JPY much lower right now..
Nice trading, Grega
USD_JPY chart
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=97394&thumb=1&d=1206373313
GBP_JPY chart
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=97397&thumb=1&d=1206373656
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #2180
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 24, 2008 8:27pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
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Nice work Grega.
Thank you for sharing your views in this thread and the interesting way you correlate USDJPY and GBPJPY while others watch both USDJPY and GBPUSD to determine GBPJPY direction.
As to this threads inactivity these days, I must apologize as I have been working on a number of things aside from trading. Although you will see me in some of the forum's thread, I browse thru a number of them when I get a chance on my computer to see what is happening.
I believe there are just very few of us here who really follow or even believe in EW counts.
Anyway..... see you around.
PS. Did you ever observe that though we have viewers in this thread, most of them are guests and not regular members of the forum? This to me basically shows very little interest in EW among the regular members. I would assume that many of these guests come over to this thread for first views and then move on to other threads and topics. Often, we would have more guests than regular members viewing the posts here at any one time.
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Mar 24, 2008 9:07pm
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#2181
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 24, 2008 8:46pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPUSD
ok. here is something on the GBPUSD
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
UPDATE:
Previous day's High was at 1.9886
Price is above daily pivot @ 1.9833 but still below weekly Pivot @ 1.9936.
For C= 1.618
update again:
I am going out for a few hours but will leave a Sell Limit Order @ 1.9935
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=97497&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1206405897 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=97498&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1206405897 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=97499&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1206405913 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=97510&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1206408898
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=97511&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1206409554 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=97515&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1206410047
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Mar 24, 2008 9:57pm
Mar 24, 2008 11:23pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
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Have removed Sell Limit Order as I am now back. looking for a higher w5 to end this wC of w4.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif #2183
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 24, 2008 11:34pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPUSD
Charts EW with Ichimoku
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=97542&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1206415986 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=97543&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1206415986 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=97544&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1206416001
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#2184
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 25, 2008 1:21am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPUSD
Pullback on the 1min then a short rally on the 5min chart
waiting for price to enter the kumo on the 1min chart or lower.
Price may find support on the lower side of the 5min kumo before a short rally on the 5min chart
Update 1:
Possible support @ 1.9897 which is Murrey Math Strong Support on 15min chart
Flat lower side on 5min kumo is @ 1.9893
Update 2:
I am not seeing any Divergence yet from 1min to 15min charts so still holding a view that there is still room to go up. Besides, Price has not crossed to the lower side of the Kumo yet on the 5min and 15min TF.
UPDATE 3:
I hope everybody who follow this thread understand that I am not here to call trades. My views should be taken as ideas you can look into.
Earlier I mentioned about what I was looking for or expecting on the 1 min and 5min charts. I actually took an earlybird entry LONG and went thru a 15pip drawdown. Only to stay on and hold then see an 18pip potential profit and got out for 14pips in the bag.
This demonstrate somehow the benefits of watching multiple time frames trying to catch the price turns. We won't get all of this full PIPS. But we will be somehow forewarned of potential turns.
So if you want to scalp, watch the 1min-5min-15min charts. Ofcourse, I would insist that you apply the EW Rules and Guidelines. And I would further suggest that you also study the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Strategy.
Now, I have to leave again. But this time to have some fun with wife and friends. We need the exercise too you know. Some Badminton action would be great. Market will always be there. There will be multiple opportunities to profit. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Happy Trading Everyone. I hope even at least 1 trader out there has learned something today.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
2230 PHI 1030 NY
I am back and price did go up still from where I exited earlier. Now it is @ 1.9968 from an earlier high of 1.9984. I exited @ 1.9928 earlier for my 14 pip profit prior to leaving.
For those who patiently watched and tracked price, that was a nice profit to keep.
2255 PHI
I can't stay up to trade right now. There is still a potential for price to still go up to artound 2.0020 whose are has 2 median lines on the 4hr charts
Current move up could be attributed to that FLAT upper Kumo side which magnetizes prices toward it on 4hr chart. on this TF price is still under the kumo. However 5min to 1hr charts shows still potential room to go up as price is stil above the Kumo.
For as long as price is still far from the kumo, trend reversal for a particular TF can not be confirmed yet. A price cross of the kumo validated by other factors in the Ichimoku can help reduce false breakouts or crossover.
Price is above the Kumo from 5min to 1 hour charts.
We may have the chance to short this pair tomorrow.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
Update
032608
Note the breakout to the upside of the 4hour RESISTANCE trendline
1140 PHI
Period of consolidation on the 15min chart. Likely a corrective wave which could be a w4 on 15min chart
RED ABC could be a 3wave A ended at 1.9734 and this move up from 1.9734 could be a B wave.
Price breakout to the upside of a 4hour Resistance rtrendline could bring price much higher than where it is now. Besides the 1initial 1234 Green does not comply with the rules and guidelines anymore because of the w1 and w4 overlap and the internal structure of the supposed w4 have exceeded the wave extention guideline for abc.
Therefore, the move from 1.9734 going up ( now that it has to be considered as a potential wave B ) , will now have the following possible forms:
since A was a 3 wave structure abc, then B will be a FLAT or a Triangle and not a zigzag.
1216 PHI
watch for 2.0015 - 1.9992 as potential support prior to a new rally scalp.
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Mar 26, 2008 12:12am
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#2185
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 26, 2008 5:28pm
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPUSD
4hour Resistance Trendline Breakout worked out fine but scared many with that pullback.
As I look at this now, we have an A blue on the Daily.
But B blue may not yet be finished. Although it is possible that C is where it ends. But it may not be an ABC red . Instead, it may be a WXYXxZ.
Why? Check the stochastics..
Look at the price on the Ichimoku
And the next Resistance Trendline is from a Daily Resistance trendline. Although could also be broken. It would be more of the first 2.
But also see how that move from 2.0396 went down to 1.9734. That looked more like 3 waves.
If this is already a move down for the Big C Blue, then it should have been in 5 waves for the internal structure of C1 down to be followed by a 3 wave up C2.
If that daily resistance trendline breaks, then next to look forward to for me is that Z.
Note also that price is above the Daily and the weekly Pivot.
EGhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/happy.gif
001 0558 PHI Note Divergence on the 5min chart
002 0603 After reviewing post again, I found out I posted 2 daily chart. so here is the actual 4hour chart. My apologies to all.
003 0607 We may now find price going back down towards that FLAT Kumo side near 2.0020. This is within the area of the 50% retracement. Although it may find temporary support on a median line found on the 15min chart @ 2.0040. Price now is at 2.0071
004 0633 PHI 2.0101 seems a top for the 5min chart. am looking / watching for price to find temporary support on the first median line below it at around 2.0050. Next median line it could find support is @ the level of 2.0020 which is near the Daily Pivot. But price may head back up for a wB of a corrective move. watch your stochs and relate the EW waves with it.
005 0810 PHI Ok.... we got that 5min pullback
007 0922 PHI Targets
Daily Chart 2.0800
1hour chart 2.0400
m15 2.0250
m5 1.9900
Let see how we all fare with these targets. watch your wave counts
008 0930 PHI %min chart . note strong Support on Murrey Math @ around 2.0020 while a median line is @ 2.0005 5min chart
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=98083&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1206566817 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=98094&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1206568456 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=98098&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1206569273
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
Last edited by el grande, Mar 26, 2008 9:52pm
Mar 27, 2008 5:15am
Serega
Member
Member Since Jun 2007
162 Posts
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the market loves us!!!!
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=98188&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1206608359 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=98189&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1206608431
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 27, 2008 5:48am
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/avatar64962_3.gifUltraman
GBPJPY Trader
Member Since Mar 2008
818 Posts
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hi EG,
did u predict on EUR/JPY...
can u predict for me..
where it's goes?
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#2188
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 27, 2008 10:31am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ultraman http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
hi EG,
did u predict on EUR/JPY...
can u predict for me..
where it's goes?
you have chosen not to receive emails or PM
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#2189
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 27, 2008 10:35am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPUSD
charts
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Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=98281&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1206628435 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=98282&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1206628435 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=98283&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1206628464 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=98284&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1206628464
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=98285&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1206628482
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#2190
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif Mar 27, 2008 10:36am
el grande
Latagaw FOREX_ EWA
Member Since Nov 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif1,793 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif GBPUSD
FIBS
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__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS